Top NBA DFS Plays & Prop Bets 11/11 | Going Back to the Bucks Value Today?

An appealing eight-game NBA schedule rolls around today and, as always, we're here to cover the best DFS plays and props to set you up for success!

Written By: Ryan Humphries on Twitter &  LineStar chat @Ryan_Humphries

DFS Main Slate Rundown 📰

Happy Friday to you all, and a Happy Veteran’s Day to the readers who have served in the military! After several strictly large or small slates this week, we finally get a nice mid-sized eight-game NBA slate to get our paws on today. I can’t speak for everyone, but these sorts of slates are the ones I vastly prefer over any others -- they’re not as hectic as the massive 10-15 games slates and they’re much less constricting than a smaller slate like we had yesterday. Best of luck today, let’s do this thing!

Key Injury News:

Celtics: M. Brogdon - OUT

Suns: C. Paul - Questionable, C. Johnson - OUT, L. Shamet - OUT

Magic: P. Banchero - Questionable, C. Anthony - OUT, K. Harris - Questionable

Pistons: C. Cunningham - Questionable, M. Bagley III - Questionable (would be season debut), A. Burks - Questionable (would be season debut), H. Diallo - Questionable

Knicks: M. Robinson - OUT

Raptors: P. Siakam - OUT, P. Achiuwa - OUT, K. Birch - OUT

Thunder: D. Bazley - OUT

Bucks: G. Antetokounmpo - OUT, J. Holiday - OUT, P. Connaughton - Questionable (would be season debut)

Spurs: Z. Collins - OUT

T-Wolves: N. Reid - OUT

Lakers: L. James - OUT, A. Davis - Probable, Lonnie Walker IV - Probable

Main Slate Match-Ups w/ Game Totals & Point Spreads

Note: NBA position designations are never going to perfectly align between the major DFS sites. For the purposes of these newsletters, positional designations will default to DraftKings.

💫 = Favorite Play

Point Guards/Shooting Guards to Consider 🏀

💫PG/SG Fred VanVleet, TOR | DK: $8.4k, FD: $8.8k | @ OKC | Cash & GPP

Without Pascal Siakam available for the Raptors, Fred VanVleet has taken over and played like a guy who should probably cost upwards of $10k in DFS. In his last three games, he has DKFP totals of 54.75, 46.75, and 56.25 which works out to a huge 1.46 DKFPPM average in that stretch. The Raptors are one of the slower-paced teams in the league but they’ll get a significant boost against the Thunder, who ranks 8th in pace (just ahead of the Rockets, 9th, who the Raptors just played). FVV scored a season-high 32 points on 26 shots against the Rockets on Wednesday and he continues to rack up strong peripheral stats while being Toronto’s “option A” on the offensive side of the ball.

💫PG/SG Jevon Carter, MIL | DK: $5.3k, FD: $5.1k | @ SAS | Cash & GPP

Carter is sure to be one of the highest-owned players of the day after the 62.5 DKFP/56.8 FDFP performance he had on Wednesday. That game did go into double-OT and Carter played nearly 45 minutes, but the guy was absolutely balling in regulation anyhow. Of course, the main reason he went off was due to Giannis and Jrue Holiday both being out, and as you’re probably aware, both guys remain out today. The 32.4% USG% rate that Carter had on Wednesday is comparable to the type of usage Ja Morant has (32.8% USG%). Carter has now seen a team-high +11.3% usage increase when Giannis and Holiday are off the court. Barring another wild OT game, he’s not going to put up 25+ shots again and go for 10x+ value, but he shouldn’t have a hard time returning 6x value or better tonight against the Spurs who rank 29th in defensive efficiency, 29th in turnovers/gm, and 5th in pace.

PG/SG Malik Monk, SAC | DK: $4.5k, FD: $4.7k | @ LAL | GPP Preferred

Monk is beginning to see more consistent run off of the Kings’ bench, and it’s not directly related to injuries or blowouts. He’s simply playing very well as of late. In his last four games, Monk is averaging 27.3 Min/Gm and 1.14 DKFPPM and, outside of a missed game by De’Aaron Fox on 11/2, the remaining Kings backcourt has been healthy and the margin of victory/defeat has been seven points or fewer in all four games. Feel free to inject the “revenge” narrative here as Monk takes on his former Lakers squad. As long as Monk handles a mid-20s minutes workload, he’ll be a great candidate to pop off in GPPs. The Kings own the second-highest implied total on the slate of 118.3 points, and the Lakers have ranked 1st in the NBA in pace this season, so it’s a pretty stellar match-up.

Other Guards to Consider:

PG Ja Morant, MEM | DK: $10k, FD: $9.7k | vs. MIN | GPP Preferred

PG/SG Devin Booker, PHX | DK: $9.4k, FD: $9k | @ ORL | Cash & GPP *(If CP3 is out again)

PG Jalen Brunson, NYK | DK: $6.8k, FD: $7.6k | vs. DET | GPP Preferred

SG Jaden Ivey, DET | DK: $5.7k, FD: $6.7k | @ NYK | Cash & GPP/DK Preferred

💫PG/SG Cameron Payne, PHX | DK: $5.7k, FD: $5.2k | @ ORL | Cash & GPP *(If CP3 is out again)

SG/SF Lonnie Walker IV, LAL | DK: $5.1k, FD: $5.3k | vs. SAC | GPP Preferred

💫SG/SF Grayson Allen, MIL | DK: $5.1k, FD: $5k | @ SAS | Cash & GPP

Small Forwards/Power Forwards to Consider 🏀

💫SF/PF Jayson Tatum, BOS | DK: $10.1k, FD: $10.1k | vs. DEN | Cash & GPP

Tatum has been a strong and consistent force in the early goings of this season. In 11 games, he has scored at least 45.0 DKFP/42.1 FDFP on 10 occasions and he has gone for 59.5+ DKFP/58.4+ FDFP four times. Even for a player as talented as Tatum, that level of consistency is quite uncommon. Tatum has seen some quality run even in blowouts, but with the Nuggets coming to town, we can expect a close (BOS -4.5), high-scoring (231 O/U) battle. Denver ranks 7th in pace so far this season and 22nd in defensive efficiency. That bodes well for any high-usage Celtics player, such as Tatum (31.7% USG%, 31.2 PPG, 9.4 3PA/Gm).

PF/C Bobby Portis, MIL | DK: $7k, FD: $5.8k | @ SAS | Cash & GPP

I know Bobby P might be on everyone’s bad side after he was major chalk on the last slate and went on to put up a disappointing performance. He was bailed out a bit by the game going into double-OT on Wednesday but, with Giannis and Holiday out once again, I think we are somewhat forced to keep Portis on the DFS radar again today. I wouldn’t say he is a “must play” (though he is pretty close at $5,800 on FanDuel) but he will continue to garner high ownership and has the potential to put up a 50 burger. He’s been extremely effective on an FPPM basis (1.22 DKFPPM) and if he handles 30-35 minutes, there is a strong chance he could be an optimal play today. The match-up today is also more appealing than the one he had on Wednesday against OKC. The Spurs are 29th in defensive efficiency, 26th in rebounding%, and they have allowed the MOST points in the paint in the NBA (57.8 PPG).

PF Thaddeus Young, TOR | DK: $3.1k, FD: $4.9k | GPP/DK Preferred

The Raptors' frontcourt is now without three of its big men with Siakam, Achiuwa, and Birch all banged up and out for tonight’s game. It is unclear how the minutes are going to be distributed among the remaining Raptors bigs, but after Achiuwa went down with his injury on Wednesday (Siakam/Birch were also still out), Thad Young went on to play a season-high 27 minutes. His presence wasn’t felt at all offensively (0-for-3 FGA) but he contributed eight rebounds, two assists, a block, and a steal. On the season, he is averaging 0.81 DKFPPM so, minutes in the mid-20s could lead to easy value on DraftKings where he is just $100 above the minimum. You probably shouldn’t touch him at his current $4,900 tag on FanDuel but he is definitely worth a GPP dart throw on DK.

Other Forwards to Consider:

 

SF/SG Jaylen Brown, BOS | DK: $8.2k, FD: $8.2k | vs. DEN | Cash & GPP

PF Julius Randle, NYK | DK: $7.9k, FD: $7.4k | vs. DET | Cash & GPP

SF OG Anunoby, TOR | DK: $7.1k, FD: $8.5k | @ OKC | Cash & GPP/DK Preferred

SF Saddiq Bey, DET | DK: $5.5k, FD: $5.7k | @ NYK | GPP Preferred

PF Chris Boucher, TOR | DK: $5k, FD: $5.7k | @ OKC | GPP Preferred

💫SF MarJon Beauchamp, MIL | DK: $4.4k, FD: $4k | @ SAS | Cash & GPP

SF/PF Otto Porter Jr., TOR | DK: $3.6k, FD: $4.9k | @ OKC | GPP/DK Preferred

Centers to Consider 🏀

💫C Domantas Sabonis, SAC | DK: $8.5k, FD: $9.1k | @ LAL | Cash & GPP

In Sacramento’s first 10 games of the season, Sabonis has averaged 16.8 PPG, 10.4 RPG, 6.1 APG, and 1.6 STL+BLK/Gm. He brings a strong floor to the table on a nightly basis and he draws an appealing match-up with a lurching LeBron-less Lakers squad that ranks 1st in pace, 29th in rebounding%, and 26th in FG%. That means there should be quite a few bricks being tossed up for Sabonis to grab and he has stepped up his offense recently, with at least 19 points scored in each of the last four games.

💫C Brook Lopez, MIL | DK: $6.3k, FD: $6.7k | @ SAS | Cash & GPP

There has been a Bucks player highlighted in each segment today, but that is a byproduct of how much production and usage Giannis and Holiday leave behind (on top of the continued absence of Khris Middleton). With those guys out, BroLo went crazy on the stat sheet on Wednesday putting up 24 points, 13 rebounds, five blocks, an assist, and a steal in 46 minutes played -- a performance that netted him 55.25 DKFP/58.1 FDFP. The double-OT helped and it’s highly doubtful that he’ll put up similar numbers tonight. But for all of the same reasons we’re looking at Bobby Portis in this match-up (Spurs: 29th in defensive efficiency, 26th in rebounding%, and MOST points allowed in the paint), we’ll have our sights set on BroLo as well.

Other Centers to Consider:

 

PF/C Anthony Davis, LAL | DK: $10.2k, FD: $10.2k | vs. SAC | GPP Preferred

C Rudy Gobert, MIN | DK: $7.7k, FD: $8.2k | @ MEM | GPP Preferred

💫PF/C Isaiah Stewart, DET | DK: $5.3k, FD: $5.9k | @ NYK | GPP Preferred

PF/C Aleksej Pokusevski, OKC | DK: $5.2k, FD: $5.7k | vs. TOR | GPP Preferred

NBA Player Props 📊

Player Prop or Bet | Odds | Unit Bet Size

Friday NBA Prop Bet Transparency Report

Season-to-Date Profits/Losses: +18.88 Units | Overall Record (thru 11/10): 21-12

Previous Week’s Profits/Losses: +3.53 Units | Previous Week’s Record: 5-3

 

Fred VanVleet OVER 22.5 Points | -101 (Caesars) | 2.5 Units

FVV has blown past the over on this 22.5 point prop in the three consecutive games that Pascal Siakam has been sidelined (Siakam continues to be out today) -- scoring 30, 27, and 32 points on 22, 19, and 26 FGA. With even more injuries affecting the Raptors' frontcourt, I could see further Toronto further relying on shots from the perimeter. VanVleet has put up a whopping 13 three-pointers per game in these recent three contests and he has shot 46.2% from beyond the arc in that stretch. He should be a great bet to pour in 23+ points tonight against the Thunder.

Domantas Sabonis to Record a Double-Double AND Kings to Win: Yes: -105 (PointsBet) | 1.75 Units

Sabonis’ double-double prop is heavily favored to hit (-360 DraftKings) so let’s parlay it with the Kings to win against the LeBron-less Lakers. As mentioned in Sabonis’ DFS spotlight, the Lakers rank 1st in pace, 29th in rebounding%, and 26th in FG%. Sabonis is averaging 16.8 PPG and 10.4 RPG, and this could be one of his better rebounding games of the season. So the biggest catch is getting the Kings win. They are -4.5 road favorites against the awful 2-9 Lakers. The only three games the Kings have lost on the road this season came against the Warriors (twice) and the Heat and all three road losses were by five points or fewer. I believe we can get a Kings victory paired with a Sabonis double-double tonight.

PrizePicks Two-Pick Power Play ⚡

Here is a two-pick “Power Play” I’m liking for today's NBA action over on PrizePicks! Nothing is ever a guarantee to hit but I put my own money on these bets so I don't just lightly throw these out there without believing they'll cash! If it hits, it will return 3x the wager.

Fred VanVleet MORE than 30.5 PTS + ASTS

Domantas Sabonis MORE than 41.5 Fantasy Score

🆕 Props Edge+ 🆕

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That will wrap us up with today’s “Daily Dribble” edition! Once again, you can find me on Twitter or in LineStar chat @Ryan_Humphries. Good luck everyone!