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- Top NBA DFS Plays & Prop Bets 11/15 | Dissecting Tonight's Star-Studded Five-Game Slate! šļø
Top NBA DFS Plays & Prop Bets 11/15 | Dissecting Tonight's Star-Studded Five-Game Slate! šļø
As far as five-game slates go, this one looks fun with plenty of superstar players to consider. Let's get into some DFS plays and prop bets to target tonight!
Written By: Ryan Humphries on Twitter & LineStar chat @Ryan_Humphries
DFS Main Slate Rundown š°
We are set up with a spicy five-game slate on this NBA Tuesday. There are plenty of big names to choose from on this small slate, but also quite a few injuries that could impact optimal roster construction. Four of the five games tip off at 8:30 ET or later so be sure to remain flexible when it comes to the potential need to late swap players around in your lineups!
Todayās key injury news:
Grizzlies: D. Bane - OUT, J. Jackson Jr. - Questionable (intends to make season debut)
Pelicans: Z. Williamson - Questionable
Clippers: K. Leonard - Questionable (unlikely to play), J. Wall - Questionable
Mavericks: R. Bullock - Questionable
Knicks: M. Robinson - OUT
Jazz: R. Gay - OUT
Nets: K. Irving - OUT, N. Claxton - Probable, B. Simmons - Probable, S. Curry - Probable, Y. Watanabe - Probable
Spurs: T. Jones - Questionable, Z. Collins - OUT, R. Langford - Questionable, M. Branham - Questionable
Trailblazers: J. Nurkic - Questionable, J. Winslow - Questionable, K. Johnson - Questionable
Main Slate Match-Ups w/ Game Totals & Point Spreads
Note: NBA position designations are never going to perfectly align between the major DFS sites. For the purposes of these newsletters, positional designations will default to DraftKings.
š« = Favorite Play
Point Guards/Shooting Guards to Consider š
š«PG Ja Morant, MEM | DK: $10.1k, FD: $10k | @ NOP | Cash & GPP
One of the major injury impacts on this slate resides on this Memphis roster as they will be without Desmond Bane (toe) for 2-to-3 weeks. Morant already owns an elite 36.3% usage rate this season, but when Bane has been off the court, that has risen to an even more dominant 42.9% USG%. Under similar usage, we can expect Morant to flirt with 30 shot attempts in tonightās game to go along with his already strong peripherals (7.0 APG, 6.0 RPG, 1.3 STL+BLK/Gm). There are several superstar guards available on this slate but Morant should be one of the first guys we look to consider for lineups tonight.
š«PG Damian Lillard, POR | DK: $9.9k, FD: $9k | vs. SAS | Cash & GPP
Dame is coming off of arguably his best all-around performance of the season on Saturday where he poured in 29 points, distributed 12 dimes, and brought down seven boards -- a performance that netted him 57.75 DKFP/53.4 FDFP. The Trailblazers enter tonight on three days' rest and face a Spurs team playing on the back end of a B2B. Itās a major pace-up spot for Portland (28th in pace) against San Antonio (6th in pace), and the Spurs have also had their fair share of issues defensively, ranking 28th in defensive efficiency. Lillard is also shooting a hair under 40% from three-point range this season while averaging a whopping 9.8 3PA/Gm. Heās firmly in play at his sub-$10k price tag on both sites.
SG Malik Beasley, UTA | DK: $4.2k, FD: $5.4k | vs. NYK | GPP Preferred
We highlighted a pair of stud guards above, so to fit guys like Ja Morant and Damian Lillard into lineups, weāll need to find cheap options elsewhere. Beasley has stood out as a very strong value play as of late. His minutes arenāt always consistent, but he has played 29 minutes in three consecutive games, which has led to 29.5+ DKFP in all three outings. In that stretch, he has launched 29 combined threes and has connected on 48.3% of shots from beyond the arc. Heās not someone who is going to put up a ton of peripheral stats so, if his shot goes cold, that would be a major problem. As it stands now, this surprisingly lethal Jazz offense enters tonight with a slate-leading 117.8 implied point total, and Beasley should continue to play a featured role off of the bench.
Other Guards to Consider:
PG Luka Doncic, DAL | DK: $12.8k, FD: $12.4k | vs. LAC | GPP Preferred
š«PG DeāAaron Fox, SAC | DK: $8.8k, FD: $8.8k | vs. BKN | Cash & GPP
š«PG Jalen Brunson, NYK | DK: $6.8k, FD: $7.4k | @ UTA | Cash & GPP
PG/SG Collin Sexton, UTA | DK: $4.4k, FD: $5k | vs. NYK | Cash & GPP
SG Seth Curry, BKN | DK: $4.2k, FD: $4.7k | @ SAC | GPP Preferred
SG/SF Terrence Davis, SAC | DK: $3.1k, FD: $3.7k | vs. BKN | GPP/DK Preferred
Small Forwards/Power Forwards to Consider š
SF/PF Lauri Markkanen, UTA | DK: $7.5k, FD: $7.6k | vs. NYK | GPP Preferred
The Knicks play at the 8th fastest pace in the NBA while ranking 22nd in defensive efficiency. That makes them a go-to team to target with opposing players. Trying to predict Lauri Markkanenās āboomā games this season has been a tough task but, as we have seen on several occasions, he does bring that massive slate-breaking 50+ FP ceiling to DFS lineups. The Knicks rank 27th versus opposing power forwards, so we should see some high shot volume and strong peripherals funneled to Markkanen tonight.
š«SF/SG Dillon Brooks, MEM | DK: $6k, FD: $5.2k | @ NOP | Cash & GPP
Ja Morant isnāt going to be the only Grizz player who benefits from Desmond Baneās absence tonight. With Bane off of the court this season, Brooks has seen a team-high +5.5% increase in his usage rate -- 29.6% USG% overall. Jaren Jackson Jr. is expected to make his Grizzlies season debut tonight but will likely be on some minutes restriction. So, assuming Brooks operates as the No. 2 offensive option, heāll have an excellent shot at returning 6x value or better tonight, especially on FanDuel where his $5,200 salary represents significant value.
SF Talen Horton-Tucker, UTA | DK: $3.4k, FD: $4k | vs. NYK | GPP Preferred
THT only plays around 15-20 Min/Gm off of the bench, but he has been very efficient with his time on the court, averaging 1.08 DKFPPM. Recently, he has hit another gear where he has averaged an eye-popping 1.44 DKFPPM over his last four games which included a 34.25 DKFP (@ WAS) performance in just 17 minutes and a 29.25 DKFP (vs. LAL) performance in just 20 minutes. We can hope for THT to push for 20 minutes tonight with Rudy Gay (hand) sidelined and, if he can do that, heāll be a viable punt play on this slate. The floor is rather low but his ceiling is incredible relative to his DFS price tags.
Other Forwards to Consider:
PF Kevin Durant, BKN | DK: $11.2k, FD: $11.3k | @ SAC | GPP Preferred
š«PF Julius Randle, NYK | DK: $8.1k, FD: $7.5k | @ UTA | Cash & GPP
PF Jerami Grant, POR | DK: $7.4k, FD: $7k | vs. SAS | Cash & GPP (better play if Nurk/Winslow are out)
SF/SG Royce OāNeale, BKN | DK: $5.2k, FD: $5.1k | @ SAC | Cash & GPP
SF/PF Yuta Watanabe, BKN | DK: $3.6k, FD: $4.4k | @ SAC | GPP/DK Preferred
Centers to Consider š
C Domantas Sabonis, SAC | DK: $9.2k, FD: $9.6k | vs. BKN | Cash & GPP
His DFS price tags are on the rise, but Sabonis showed off his incredible ceiling in his last game against the Warriors where he flirted with a triple-double, putting up 26 points, 22 rebounds, and eight assists. The Nets have defended opposing centers quite well throughout this season so we likely arenāt getting that same sort of upside out of Sabonis tonight. However, he provides a strong 40+ fantasy point floor on a near-nightly basis so, if youāve got the salary for him, he easily lands on the DFS radar tonight.
š«C Nicolas Claxton, BKN | DK: $5.9k, FD: $6.4k | @ SAC | Cash & GPP
Weāll go to the big man on the other side of this Nets/Kings match-up and look to Nic Claxton to have a big night. Claxton exited Sundayās game against the Lakers after 16 minutes due to an eye contusion. The injury doesnāt appear to be serious, so Claxton should get right back into the action without missing any time. He has seemingly benefited from the absence of Kyrie Irving over these last six games. In this recent six-game stretch, Claxton has put up at least 36.75 DKFP/38.3 FDFP on four occasions. He is shooting 72.4% from the field this season while being a strong source of blocks (2.1 BLK/Gm) and rebounds (9.1 RPG).
Other Centers to Consider:
C Steven Adams, MEM | DK: $5.5k, FD: $6k | @ NOP | GPP Preferred
š«C Isaiah Hartenstein, NYK | DK: $5.3k, FD: $4.8k | @ UTA | Cash & GPP
C Drew Eubanks, POR | DK: $3.9k, FD: $4.3k | vs. SAS | Cash & GPP (if Nurkic is out)
NBA Player Props š
Player Prop or Bet | Odds | Unit Bet Size
Damian Lillard OVER 6.5 Assists | +104 (FanDuel) | 2.0 Units
Lillard contributed a season-high 12 assists in his last game and he has guys around him like Anfernee Simons and Jerami Grant who are not afraid to put up 20+ shots themselves. Itās a great match-up against the Spurs who rate out 28th in defensive efficiency and San Antonioās 28.1 opponent assists allowed per game rank them dead last in that category. Lillard commands a ton of defensive attention, as he should, so letās look for him to not hesitate to make the extra pass to one of his fellow shooters who will inevitably come open throughout tonightās game.
Julius Randle OVER 20.5 Points | -109 (Caesars) | 2.0 Units
Randle hasnāt been forced to play crazy high minutes on a nightly basis like he did last season but he remains a top-scoring option for the Knicks and he has hit the over on this 20.5 points prop in five consecutive games. The Jazz allow an NBA-high 56.8 points in the paint per game and just got absolutely cooked by Joel Embiid for 59 points two nights ago. Randle is averaging 15.0 2PA/Gm but he may take a few more high-percentage two-point shots tonight to go along with his usual allotment of three-point attempts (5.8 3PA/Gm). We can feel fairly confident in Randleās ability to pour in 21+ points in a game that carries a slate-high 232.5 O/U.
PrizePicks Two-Pick Power Play ā”
Here is a two-pick āPower Playā Iām liking for today's NBA action over on PrizePicks! Nothing is ever a guarantee to hit but I put my own money on these bets so I don't just lightly throw these out there without believing they'll cash! If it hits, it will return 3x the wager.
Paul George MORE than 19.5 Points (discounted Taco Tuesday prop!)
Julius Randle MORE than 20.5 Points
š Props Edge+ š
In LineStarās ongoing mission to improve, innovate, and help you reel in some cash, we are introducing Props Edge+ for NBA ā available for LineStar Premium users! This tool can help you find value and mispriced odds on player props from sportsbooks and, more specifically, for PrizePicks and UnderDog Fantasy!
Speaking of props, put the Props Edge+ tool to use by signing up for PrizePicks (Promo code: BETFULLY) or Underdog (Promo code: LINESTAR). You'll receive a 100% match on first deposits up to $100 PLUS a free two-month subscription to LineStar Premium. Many people may not realize that you can legally place prop bets in most states using UnderDog (or PrizePicks) ā itās called Pick'Em, and itās incredibly easy.
That will wrap us up with todayās āDaily Dribbleā edition! Once again, you can find me on Twitter or in LineStar chat @Ryan_Humphries. Good luck everyone!