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Top NBA DFS Plays & Prop Bets 11/20 | Finding Some Go-To Options for Tonight's Eight-Game Slate!

Top DFS Plays & Props for Monday's NBA Action!

Written By: Ryan Humphries on Twitter & LineStar chat @Ryan_Humphries

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DFS Main Slate Rundown 📰

Another quality mid-sized slate hits the board with eight games on tap for this evening! One nice thing about this slate is that the injury report isn’t too crazy. Most of the banged-up players have already been ruled out for tonight’s action and there aren’t many high-impact guys who have the dreaded “questionable” designation today. Should be a fun one so let’s get into it! Best of luck!

Today’s Key Injuries

  • Bucks: J. Crowder - OUT, M. Beauchamp - OUT

  • Wizards: D. Wright - OUT, J. Davis - Questionable

  • Celtics: D. White - OUT, Al Horford - OUT

  • Hornets: T. Rozier - OUT, N. Richards - OUT

  • Nuggets: J. Murray - OUT

  • Pistons: J. Duren - Questionable, K. Hayes - Probable, J. Harris - OUT, I. Livers - Questionable (would be season debut)

  • Clippers: M. Plumlee - OUT

  • Spurs: D. Vassell - OUT

  • Heat: T. Herro - OUT

  • Bulls: A. Caruso - Probable

  • Kings: K. Huerter - Questionable, K. Ellis - OUT, A. Len - OUT, T. Lyles - Questionable (would be season debut), S. Vezenkov - Questionable

  • Pelicans: CJ McCollum - OUT, M. Ryan - OUT, L. Nance Jr. - OUT

  • Knicks: Q. Grimes - Questionable, E. Fournier - Questionable

  • Timberwolves: None

  • Rockets: A. Sengun - Questionable, T. Eason - OUT, A. Thompson - Questionable, V. Oladipo - Questionable (would be season debut)

  • Warriors: D. Green - OUT, G. Payton II - OUT

Main Slate Match-Ups w/ Game Totals & Point Spreads

Top DraftKings & FanDuel DFS Plays

Note: NBA position designations are never going to perfectly align between the major DFS sites. For the purposes of these newsletters, positional designations will default to DraftKings.

Point Guards/Shooting Guards to Consider 🏀

PG De’Aaron Fox, SAC | DK: $9.3k, FD: $9.9k | @ NOP

We’re going to want some pieces to this game which owns the second-highest total of the slate (237 O/U) along with the closest spread (SAC -1). Despite missing a few games due to injury, De’Aaron Fox has been outstanding early on in his 2023-24 campaign. He’s averaging 1.52 DKFPPM over his last five starts and is performing much more like a guy who should cost $10k+. Much of his increased production is due to his improvements beyond the arc. Fox is a career 32.5% three-point shooter and he has averaged just 3.9 3PA per game. However, this season, he’s hoisting an average of 8.6 3PA per game while shooting 41.7% from downtown. The Pelicans opponents are averaging 39.3 3PA per game this season, which is the second-highest figure in the NBA. So Fox will have the green light once again and should light up the scoreboard this evening. He’s also chipping in solid all-around peripherals with 6.1 APG, 4.6 RPG, and 2.3 STL+BLK/gm. At his current DFS salaries, we’re going to want some Fox shares this evening.

SG/SF Duncan Robinson, MIA | DK: $5.9k, FD: $6k | @ CHI

I don’t believe we’ll be stacking up this game too much, given its slate-low 208.5 over/under, but this should be a tightly contested match-up based on the one-point spread in favor of the Heat. With Tyler Herro (ankle/out) missing the previous five games, Duncan Robinson has filled in as a starter and has played admirably. In those five games, he’s averaging 35.4 minutes, 0.95 FPPM, and 33.55 DKFP/31.96 FDFP per game. Among the Heat starters, Robinson is going to fall to third in usage rate, behind Jimmy Butler and Bam Adebayo, but he’s still a guy who can rack up 25+ points and he’s cashing in on 41.1% of his three-pointers this season. Perhaps it's not a smash play but Robinson should provide a nice floor at these salaries and he’s posted a pair of 40+ FP performances within his last four games as a starter, so the 6x-7x upside is certainly there.

 

SG/SF Norman Powell, LAC | DK: $4.1k, FD: $4.5k | @ SAS

The value options aren’t overly abundant on this slate but Normal Powell will be a cheap option worth considering. His minutes off the bench can vary wildly but he has played at least 26 minutes in three consecutive games, cracking two perfect lineups in that span, and he’s averaging a respectable 0.90 FPPM over his previous five contests. Powell has also scored at least 17.75 DKFP/15.2 FDFP in nine of his last 10 games so he’s not likely to post up a complete dud and he provides plenty of 6x-7x upside at his current salaries. The Spurs continue to be one of the best teams to load up against with opposing players. San Antonio checks in at 4th in pace and 29th in DEFRTG this season. The Clippers are also hefty nine-point favorites so Powell does have the potential for some added minutes in the event of a blowout.

 

Other Guards to Consider

PG LaMelo Ball, CHA | DK: $9.9k, FD: $9.7k | vs. BOS

PG Damian Lillard, MIL | DK: $9.6k, FD: $9.2k | @ WAS

PG/SG James Harden, LAC | DK: $7.8k, FD: $7.2k | @ SAS

PG Fred VanVleet, HOU | DK: $7.5k, FD: $8k | @ GSW

PG/SF Dyson Daniels, NOP | DK: $5.9k, FD: $5.7k | vs. SAC

PG Coby White, CHI | DK: $5.3k, FD: $5.4k | vs. MIA

PG/SG Alex Caruso, CHI | DK: $4.6k, FD: $5.1k | vs. MIA

PG/SG Brandin Podziemski, GSW | DK: $4.4k, FD: $4.9k | vs. HOU

SG/SF Chris Duarte, SAC | DK: $3.1k, FD: $3.7k | @ NOP (Only if K. Huerter is out/Duarte starts)

PG Jalen Pickett, DEN | DK: $3k, FD: $3.5k | @ DET

Small Forwards/Power Forwards to Consider 🏀

PF/C Giannis Antetokounmpo, MIL | DK: $11k, FD: $11k | @ WAS

This game has some definite blowout potential so it may be wise to tread carefully with the Bucks starters. With that disclosure out of the way, if Giannis ends up logging mid-30s minutes tonight, he will be in a position to post up a slate-breaking DFS score. It took a couple of weeks into the season, but we’re starting to see those patented Greek Freak monster performances. He’s gone for at least 68.5 DKFP/64.9 FDFP in three of his last five games… though, two of those big games came with Damian Lillard on the sideline. He did, however, put up a 40-point, 15-rebound game against the Mavericks on Saturday while sharing the court with Lillard, so we’ve now seen that the two stars can coexist while still providing plenty of DFS upside. The Wizards have played at the 2nd fastest pace this season while ranking 25th in defensive rating. That will lead to a gargantuan 128 implied team total for the Bucks which, correct me if I’m wrong, may be the highest team total of the season. If this game does end up as a blowout, Giannis shouldn’t completely crush lineups but it’d be wishful thinking that he’d return value on his $11,000 DFS salary.

SF/PF Miles Bridges, CHA | DK: $5.7k, FD: $6.4k | vs. BOS

It’s a bit painful to spotlight this scumbag but, for DFS purposes, Bridges is going to be worth some consideration out of the mid-range. Since returning from suspension two games ago, Bridges has logged 32 and 33 minutes while averaging 1.01 FPPM off the bench. The Celtics have been the best defensive team in the NBA this season, based on defensive rating, and their 105.5 opponent PPG is the 2nd lowest allowed in the league. So, it’ll be tough sledding for the Hornets (+8) today but they still own a solid 112.8 implied team total, which puts them mid-pack on the slate. Bridges will be a preferred play on DraftKings but, historically, he’s been a $7k to $8k type player and he’s logging close to starter’s type minutes, so he’ll have a decent chance to return value on his $6,400 FanDuel tag as well.

 

SF Bilal Coulibaly, WAS | DK: $4.6k, FD: $5.1k | vs. MIL

Coulibaly is earning quality run off of the Wizards bench lately and has played at least 28 minutes in each of the last four games. In that span, he’s averaging a strong 0.93 FPPM and has scored at least 26.0 DKFP/25.6 FDFP on three occasions. He’s a low-usage wing player but he has brought down at least seven rebounds in three of the last four games and he can provide steal and block upside (2.5 STL+BLK/gm L4Games). He’s also going to be more protected from the potential blowout since he isn’t in the starting rotation. Overall, he’s a bit of a risky pick but there aren’t many appealing cheap forward plays on this slate either.

 

Other Forwards to Consider

SF/SG Paul George, LAC | DK: $8.6k, FD: $8.6k | @ SAS

SF/PF Jimmy Butler, MIA | DK: $8.3k, FD: $8.8k | @ CHI

SF/SG Jaylen Brown, BOS | DK: $7.9k, FD: $7.7k | @ CHA

PF/C Kristaps Porzingis, BOS | DK: $7.8k, FD: $7.9k | @ CHA

SF/PF DeMar DeRozan, CHI | DK: $7.3k, FD: $7.6k | vs. MIA

SF Ausar Thompson, DET | DK: $7.1k, FD: $7.5k | vs. DEN

PF/C Bobby Portis, MIL | DK: $6.2k, FD: $6.3k | @ WAS

SF/PF RJ Barrett, NYK | DK: $6.2k, FD: $6.3k | @ MIN

SF/PF Deni Avdija, WAS | DK: $6k, FD: $6.2k | vs. MIL

SF Sam Hauser, BOS | DK: $4.6k, FD: $4.4k | @ CHA

SF/PF Terrence Mann, LAC | DK: $4k, FD: $4.5k | @ SAS

PF Danillo Gallinari, WAS | DK: $3.9k, FD: $4.3k | vs. MIL

Centers to Consider 🏀

C Domantis Sabonis, SAC | DK: $10k, FD: $10.4k | @ NOP

As usual, Nikola Jokic (DK: $12.8k, FD: $12.8k) should be the top spend-up at not only the center position but on the entire slate. But if you don’t want to pony up for Jokic’s slate-high salary, you can save a little cash while still getting plenty of upside from Sabonis. He’s on a nice tear of his own, posting up at least 53.75 DKFP/51.8 FDFP in six consecutive games. Sabonis will draw an excellent match-up against the Pelicans, who are allowing the 8th most points in the paint per game and rank 25th in rebounding%. He’ll also get a slight usage boost if Kevin Huerter (finger/questionable) were to sit out for a second consecutive game.

C Mark Williams, CHA | DK: $6.1k, FD: $6.5k | vs. BOS

Williams has not been an overly consistent DFS option but, on the season, he’s making 72.2% of his shots while averaging a near-double-double with 13.5 PPG and 9.5 RPG. His 24.6% rebound% also ranks third among centers on this slate, behind only Jokic (33.3%) and Sabonis (24.8%). Williams has seen his minutes lowered at times this season, as he is averaging 26.1 Min/gm. However, with backup center Nick Richards (concussion/out) sidelined tonight, Williams should be a safe bet to play 30+ minutes since the Hornets do not really have any other capable centers on the roster.

 

Other Centers to Consider

C Nikola Jokic, DEN | DK: $12.8k, FD: $12.8k | @ DET

C Bam Adebayo, MIA | DK: $9.1k, FD: $9.6k | @ CHI

C Alperen Sengun, HOU | DK: $7.9k, FD: $8.3k | @ GSW (Currently questionable)

C Jonas Valanciunas, NOP | DK: $6.8k, FD: $6.9k | vs. SAC

C Ivica Zubac, LAC | DK: $5.6k, FD: $6.2k | @ SAS

PF/C Kevin Love, MIA | DK: $3.8k, FD: $4k | @ CHI

C Jock Landale, HOU | DK: $3k, FD: $3.8k | @ GSW (Only if Sengun is out/Landale starts)

PrizePicks NBA Power Play ⚡

Here is a two-pick “Power Play” I’m liking for today's NBA action over on PrizePicks! Nothing is ever a guarantee to hit but I put my own money on these bets so I don't just lightly throw these out there without believing they'll cash! If it hits, it will return 3x the wager.

Michael Porter Jr. MORE than 6.5 Rebounds

Bilal Coulibaly MORE than 12.5 Points + Rebounds

🆕 Props AI 🆕

In LineStar’s ongoing mission to improve, innovate, and help you reel in some cash, we are introducing Props AI for NBA – available for LineStar Premium users! This tool can help you find value and mispriced odds on player props from sportsbooks and, more specifically, for PrizePicks and UnderDog Fantasy!

Speaking of props, put the Props AI tool to use by signing up for PrizePicks (Promo code: BETFULLY) or Underdog (Promo code: LINESTAR). You'll receive a 100% match on first deposits up to $100 PLUS a free two-month subscription to LineStar Premium. Many people may not realize that you can legally place prop bets in most states using UnderDog (or PrizePicks) – it’s called Pick'Em, and it’s incredibly easy.

That will wrap us up with today’s “Daily Dribble” edition! Once again, you can find me on Twitter or in LineStar chat @Ryan_Humphries. Good luck everyone!