Top NBA DFS Plays & Prop Bets 11/21 | How Much Warriors Value is Too Much?

Monday provides us with an interesting eight-game set of NBA games. Let's dig into some top DFS plays and props to hone in onto this evening!

Written By: Ryan Humphries on Twitter & LineStar chat @Ryan_Humphries

DFS Main Slate Rundown 📰

Time to dive into a new week of NBA action with Monday’s eight-game slate! At first glance, things aren’t *too* incredibly hectic as far as injuries go, but, as usual, some big-name players will be watching from the bench tonight…

Today’s Key Injury News:

Hawks: D. Hunter - Questionable

Cavaliers: K. Love - Questionable, C. LeVert - OUT, D. Wade - OUT

Magic: P. Banchero - OUT, W. Carter Jr. - Questionable (didn’t participate in Monday shootaround), C. Anthony - OUT

Pacers: C. Duarte - OUT, A. Nembhard - Questionable

Knicks: C. Reddish - Questionable, D. Rose - Questionable

Thunder: A. Pokusevski - OUT, T. Mann - OUT, D. Bazley - Questionable, I. Joe - Questionable

Warriors: S. Curry - OUT, A. Wiggins - Questionable, D. Green - OUT, K. Thompson - OUT, K. Looney - Questionable

Pelicans: Z. Williamson - Probable, T. Murphy III - Questionable

Trailblazers: D. Lillard - OUT

Bucks: G. Antetokounmpo - Probable

Heat: J. Butler - OUT, B. Adebayo - Questionable, T. Herro - OUT, G. Vincent - Questionable, D. Dedmon - Questionable, D. Robinson - OUT

Jazz: M. Conley - OUT, R. Gay - OUT

Clippers: P. George - Questionable, L. Kennard - OUT

Main Slate Match-Ups w/ Game Totals & Point Spreads

Note: NBA position designations are never going to perfectly align between the major DFS sites. For the purposes of these newsletters, positional designations will default to DraftKings.

💫 = Favorite Play

Point Guards/Shooting Guards to Consider 🏀

PG Tyrese Haliburton, IND | DK: $9.4k, FD: $9.1k | vs. ORL | Cash & GPP

You have to love Haliburton’s level of consistency. He has poured in at least 41.0 DKFP in 14-of-15 games this season and enters off of a season-high 59.5 DKFP against this same Magic squad. The five combined blocks and steals in that last game were a bit of an outlier but Haliburton continued to be a solid source of points (22) and an extremely strong source of assists (14). He’s averaging a points + assists double-double on the season, and he can be expected to return more strong results in this second game against the Magic, who rank 24th in defensive efficiency and have struggled against opposing PGs throughout the season.

PG/SG Anfernee Simons, POR | DK: $7.4k, FD: $8.1k | @ MIL | Cash & GPP

Damian Lillard is back on the injury report with a calf injury and will be re-evaluated in 1-to-2 weeks. That means Simons will take over as the clear top-scoring option in the Trailblazers lineup. Simons’ usage has risen +5.9% when Lillard is off the court which leads to a similar usage rate as other top guards like Steph Curry or SGA. It’s a tough match-up against the Bucks (1st in defensive efficiency) and there are at least some light blowout concerns (POR +10). However, this is an up-pace match-up for Portland and Simons has averaged +32% more FPPG in up-pace games.

PG/SG Jordan Poole, GSW | DK: $5.8k, FD: $6.6k | @ NOP | Cash & GPP

Another “Poole Party” has landed on the schedule. The Warriors will be sitting Steph Curry, Klay Thompson, and Draymond Green while Andrew Wiggins and Kevon looney are both questionable. The Warriors will be a clear-cut source of value on this slate, starting with Jordan Poole. In the three games where Poole has entered the starting rotation this season, he has returned 44.75 DKFP (@ DET), 36.5 DKFP (@ NOP), and 52.0 DKFP (vs. SAS). In two of those games, Steph Curry still played so you can imagine how large of a role Poole should possess tonight.

Other Guards to Consider:

 

PG Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, OKC | DK: $10k, FD: $10.5k | vs. NYK | GPP Preferred

SG/SF Anthony Edwards, MIN | DK: $7.6k, FD: $7.6k | vs. MIA | GPP Preferred

PG Kyle Lowry, MIA | DK: $7.2k, FD: $7.2k | @ MIN | GPP Preferred

PG/SG Jalen Suggs, ORL | DK: $6.3k, FD: $6.6k | @ IND | Cash & GPP

PG Jose Alvarado, NOP | DK: $3.7k, FD: $4.9k | vs. GSW | GPP/DK Preferred

PG/SG Donte DiVincenzo, GSW | DK: $3.2k, FD: $3.5k | @ NOP | Cash & GPP

*SG/SF Moses Moody, GSW | DK: $3k, FD: $3.8k | @ NOP | Cash & GPP (*if he’s starting)

*SG/SF Quentin Grimes, NYK | DK: $3k, FD: $3.5k | @ OKC | Cash & GPP (*if C. Reddish is out)

Small Forwards/Power Forwards to Consider 🏀

SF/PF Jayson Tatum, BOS | DK: $10.6k, FD: $10.2k | @ CHI | Cash & GPP

Given all of the value that is already opening up on this slate, it won’t be difficult whatsoever to fit in a superstar like Jayson Tatum. Tatum has had a bit of trouble returning high-end value on these $10k+ salaries lately but you know you’re going to get around a 45 FP floor barring some unforeseen circumstances. The last time Tatum went up against the Bulls on Nov. 4th, he went off for 36 points, 12 boards, and six assists and posted 66.5 DKFP/64.4 FDFP. So, the potential for 6x value is there and the potential for him to completely bust is extremely low. Chicago has been vulnerable against frontcourt starters this season and this game boasts one of the highest totals on the slate with a 230 O/U.

SF/SG Franz Wagner, ORL | DK: $7.2k, FD: $7.1k | @ IND | GPP Preferred

Wagner has seen a team-high +5.4% usage bump when Paolo Banchero and Cole Anthony (both out) have been off the court this season. Now, it looks like Wendell Carter Jr. (foot/questionable) is on the wrong side of that questionable tag after missing Monday’s shootaround session. If WCJ sits, Wagner will see an additional bump to his overall usage. The Pacers are always a great team to target with opposing players due to ranking 5th in pace and 20th in defensive efficiency. Wagner posted 43.25 DKFP/40.5 FDFP in this same Pacers match-up on Saturday so he’ll be a strong bet to provide similar production tonight.

PF/C Jonathan Kuminga, GSW | DK: $3.3k, FD: $4k | @ NOP | Cash & GPP

We’ve already pointed out how few bodies the Warriors will have available tonight. While Andrew Wiggins and Kevon Looney both still have a chance to play (both are currently questionable), Kuminga should be a likely candidate to enter the starting lineup in place of Draymond Green. When Kuminga earned the start against this same Pelicans team on Nov. 4th, he ended up playing 38 minutes and returned 31.0 DKFP/31.8 FDFP. There's a pretty clear pathway to significant value here.

Other Forwards to Consider:

 

PF Jerami Grant, POR | DK: $7.3k, FD: $7.6k | @ MIL | GPP Preferred

SF/PF Luguentz Dort, OKC | DK: $5.1k, FD: $5.5k | vs. NYK | GPP Preferred

SF/SG Malik Beasley, UTA | DK: $4.6k, FD: $5.7k | @ LAC | Cash & GPP/DK Preferred

PF/C Nikola Jovic, MIA | DK: $4k, FD: $4.5k | @ MIN | GPP Preferred

PF Anthony Lamb, GSW | DK: $3.4k, FD: $3.8k | @ NOP | Cash & GPP

Centers to Consider 🏀

C Myles Turner, IND | DK: $7.5k, FD: $7.9k | vs. ORL | Cash & GPP

I’m always hesitant to tag Myles Turner as a “cash safe” play but he is settling into being a consistent DFS performer and offers tremendous upside to boot. Across his last six starts, he is posting 43.2 FPPG while averaging over 1.40 DKFPPM. When he can stay out of foul trouble, he can push his minutes into the low 30s and truly unlock the high 50+ FP potential that we’ve seen a couple of times this season. He’s coming off of a 20-point, 11-rebound performance against Orlando while playing 34 minutes. Another 30+ minute night for Turner would, in all likelihood, produce an even better fantasy score. Turner is also averaging an additional +6.6 FPPG at home this season.

C Jeremiah Robinson-Earl, OKC | DK: $3.6k, FD: $4.3k | vs. NYK | GPP Preferred

JRE should slide back into the starting lineup tonight in the absence of Aleksej Pokusevski (ankle). If Darius Bazley (ankle/questionable) also sits, that opens up a fairly clear pathway for JRE to play minutes in the mid-to-upper 20s. Robinson-Earl has averaged 0.96 DKFPPM this season so, particularly on DraftKings, he’s a strong candidate to return 6x value or better in tournaments.

Other Centers to Consider:

 

C Nikola Vucevic, CHI | DK: $7.4k, FD: $7.9k | vs. BOS | GPP Preferred

PF/C Bobby Portis, MIL | DK: $7.2k, FD: $6k | vs. POR | GPP/FD Preferred

PF/C Bol Bol, ORL | DK: $6.9k, FD: $6.7k | @ IND | Cash & GPP

C Rudy Gobert, MIN | DK: $6.6k, FD: $7.5k | vs. MIA | GPP/DK Preferred

*C Mo Bamba, ORL | DK: $5.8k, FD: $5.6k | @ IND | GPP Preferred (*if WCJ sits)

C Al Horford, BOS | DK: $5.7k, FD: $5.5k | @ CHI | Cash & GPP

NBA Player Props 📊

Player Prop or Bet | Odds | Unit Bet Size

Franz Wagner OVER 30.5 Points+Rebounds+Assists | -105 (DraftKings) | 2.0 Units

Wagner has taken on a primary scoring role while Orlando deals with key injuries to Paolo Banchero and Cole Anthony. His role would expand even further should Wendell Carter Jr. (foot/questionable) eventually get ruled out. Wagner has hit the over on this P/R/A prop in six of his last eight games, including 37 combined P/R/A against the Pacers on Saturday. The Pacers' uptempo play and porous defense make them an ideal team to target with opposing player props so we’ll bank on Wagner to stuff the stat sheet today.

Anfernee Simons OVER 5.5 Assists | +108 (FanDuel) | 2.0 Units

A tough match-up with a great defensive team in Milwaukee but Simons is set to pick up additional ball-handling duties with Damian Lillard sidelined. In the three games Simons has played while Lillard sat out, Simons dished out seven, eight, and six assists. Portland is looking like a serious contender in the Western Conference this year so, even without Lillard, they should be able to hang with Milwaukee tonight and Simons should play a massive role via scoring and facilitating.

PrizePicks Two-Pick Power Play ⚡

Here is a three-pick “Power Play” I’m liking for today's NBA action over on PrizePicks! Nothing is ever a guarantee to hit but I put my own money on these bets so I don't just lightly throw these out there without believing they'll cash! If it hits, it will return 5x the wager.

Let's roll the dice on a three-pick slip tonight!

Anfernee Simons MORE than 5.0 Assists

Evan Mobley MORE than 25.5 P/R/A

CJ McCollum MORE than 5.5 Assists

🆕 Props Edge+ 🆕

In LineStar’s ongoing mission to improve, innovate, and help you reel in some cash, we are introducing Props Edge+ for NBA – available for LineStar Premium users! This tool can help you find value and mispriced odds on player props from sportsbooks and, more specifically, for PrizePicks and UnderDog Fantasy!

Speaking of props, put the Props Edge+ tool to use by signing up for PrizePicks (Promo code: BETFULLY) or Underdog (Promo code: LINESTAR). You'll receive a 100% match on first deposits up to $100 PLUS a free two-month subscription to LineStar Premium. Many people may not realize that you can legally place prop bets in most states using UnderDog (or PrizePicks) – it’s called Pick'Em, and it’s incredibly easy.

That will wrap us up with today’s “Daily Dribble” edition! Once again, you can find me on Twitter or in LineStar chat @Ryan_Humphries. Good luck everyone!