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Top NBA DFS Plays & Prop Bets 11/22 | Making Sense of a Monster 14-Game Slate!
Top DFS Plays & Props for Wednesday's NBA Action!
Written By: Ryan Humphries on Twitter & LineStar chat @Ryan_Humphries
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DFS Main Slate Rundown 📰
A doozy of a slate arrives with 14 games landing on today’s ticket! We’ve got plenty of high totals on the board, with eight games boasting a 230+ over/under. I doubt we’ll see anything like that Pacers/Hawks game last night, pending triple or quadruple overtime, but there will be no shortage of enticing game environments to load up on this evening. As always, especially when it comes to these massive slates, keep your eyes and ears peeled for all of the late-breaking injury news that is released closer to each game tipping off. There could be some sizable advantages in late-swapping today. Best of luck!
Also, I’d like to wish everyone a Happy Thanksgiving! NBA content will resume on Monday. Until then, I hope you all enjoy the time off with your family and friends!
Today’s Key Injuries
Note: Players who have yet to play, or have not played significant minutes this season, will not be listed on this injury report.
Wizards: D. Avdija - Questionable, D. Wright - OUT
Hornets: T. Rozier - OUT, N. Richards - OUT
Nuggets: J. Murray - OUT, Z. Nnaji - Probable
Magic: W. Carter Jr. - OUT, M. Fultz - OUT
Bucks: J. Crowder - OUT
Celtics: J. Tatum - Questionable
Nets: C. Thomas - OUT, B. Simmons - OUT, D. Smith Jr. - OUT
Hawks: D. Murray - Questionable
Raptors: None
Pacers: A. Nesmith - Questionable, A. Nembhard - Questionable
Heat: B. Adebayo - Probable, T. Herro - OUT, K. Love - OUT
Cavaliers: D. Mitchell - OUT, C. LeVert - Questionable, I. Okoro - OUT, D. Wade - Doubtful, Ty Jerome - OUT
Clippers: M. Plumlee - OUT
Spurs: None
Bulls: Z. LaVine - Probable, A. Caruso - Probable, P. Williams - Probable
Thunder: Jal. Williams - OUT
Kings: K. Murray - Questionable, C. Duarte - Questionable, K. Ellis - OUT, T. Lyles - Questionable (expected to make season debut), A. Len - OUT, S. Vezenkov - Questionable
Pelicans: CJ McCollum - OUT, M. Ryan - OUT, L. Nance Jr. - Questionable
76ers: J. Embiid - OUT, K. Oubre Jr. - OUT
Timberwolves: J. McDaniels - OUT
Grizzlies: M. Smart - OUT, X. Tillman - OUT, L. Kennard - OUT, J. LaRavia - OUT
Rockets: A. Thompson - OUT
Jazz: W. Kessler - OUT
Trailblazers: M. Brogdon - Questionable, S. Henderson - OUT, A. Simons - OUT
Warriors: D. Green - OUT, G. Payton II - OUT
Suns: B. Beal - OUT, Y. Watanabe - OUT
Mavericks: M. Kleber - OUT, S. Curry - Questionable
Lakers: L. James - Questionable, A. Davis - Probable, C. Reddish - OUT, G. Vincent - OUT
Main Slate Match-Ups w/ Game Totals & Point Spreads
Top DraftKings & FanDuel DFS Plays
Note: NBA position designations are never going to perfectly align between the major DFS sites. For the purposes of these newsletters, positional designations will default to DraftKings.
Point Guards/Shooting Guards to Consider 🏀
PG Tyrese Maxey, PHI | DK: $9k, FD: $9.1k | @ MIN
You don’t often see one clear-cut injury impact that easily stands out above the rest on a slate of this magnitude but, without question, that’s going to be the absence of reigning MVP Joel Embiid (hip), who is sitting out his first game of the season today. Embiid’s absence is likely more precautionary than anything as the 76ers are on the second leg of a back-to-back and are coming off of a tough overtime loss to the Cavs last night. Maxey and Embiid have been the NBA’s top-scoring duo this season, combining for 58.9 PPG. When one-half of that duo is missing, you can guarantee that the other half will be picking up a significant portion of the slack. The 76ers also continue to be without Kelly Oubre Jr. In just under 100 minutes played with both Embiid and Oubre off the floor this season, Maxey has handled a significant, team-leading +11.26% usage boost and has averaged +19.85 FPPG per 48 minutes. Maxey leads all guards on this slate with 38.7 Min/gm this season and he may very well hoist up 30+ shot attempts tonight. The catch here is that the match-up is far from ideal. The Timberwolves rank 2nd in defensive rating, they defend primary ball handlers well, and they play at a below-average pace (19th). Without their MVP in the lineup, the 76ers are also seven-point road underdogs. So, there are multiple ways that this Maxey play will go south, but there are probably more ways that it will be successful. He’s not cheap by any means, but given his implied uptick in usage, Maxey could still end up looking like a bargain at his $9k/$9.1k DFS salaries.
SG/SF Austin Reaves, LAL | DK: $5.6k, FD: $6k | vs. DAL
With Cam Reddish (groin/out) sidelined tonight, that could bump Reaves back into the starting rotation after playing the previous seven games off of the Lakers’ bench. From a DFS perspective, Reaves has been more consistent off of the bench but the opportunity to pick up additional minutes as a start, while still being priced as a bench player, takes precedence. Like just about every Laker, Reaves has been better at home this season where he is shooting 49.4% from the field and averaging 1.07 FPPM (vs. 41.7% FG% and 0.89 FPPM on the road). The Mavs will step in as three-point road favorites in this one so we’re less likely to see the Lakers players face limited minutes due to a blowout, like last night. Reaves is stuffing the stat sheet nicely, with 7.2 RPG and 6.0 APG over his last five, and he fell one assist shy of a triple-double a couple of weeks ago when he finished with 23/10/9 against the Heat while playing 40 minutes (as a starter). So, Reaves will bring an excellent ceiling to DFS lineups today and, even if he doesn’t start, he’ll handle an increased role off of the bench.
PG/SG Nickeil Alexander-Walker, MIN | DK: $3.7k, FD: $4.2k | vs. PHI
Jaden McDaniels (ankle/out) was forced out of Monday’s game after playing just four minutes. Nickeil Alexander-Walker ended up starting the second half in his place and logged a season-high 33 minutes. He’ll be the leading candidate to replace McDaniels in the starting rotation for the foreseeable future. NAW has been underwhelming as a starter in the past and he’s only averaging 0.68 FPPM on the season. But this is very much an “aim small, miss small” situation since he is dirt cheap and has the chance to play 32+ minutes as a starter tonight.
Other Guards to Consider
PG Luka Doncic, DAL | DK: $11.8k, FD: $11.7k | @ LAL
PG LaMelo Ball, CHA | DK: $10.2k, FD: $9.9k | vs. WAS
PG/SG Kyrie Irving, DAL | DK: $8.4k, FD: $8.3k | @ LAL
PG/SG James Harden, LAC | DK: $7.9k, FD: $7.4k | @ SAS
PG D’Angelo Russell, LAL | DK: $6.6k, FD: $6.6k | vs. DAL
PG/SG De’Anthony Melton, PHI | DK: $6.2k, FD: $6.1k | @ MIN
SG OG Anunoby, TOR | DK: $5.6k, FD: $6.1k | @ IND
SG/SF Buddy Hield, IND | DK: $5.2k, FD: $4.8k | vs. TOR (Preferred if starting again)
PG/SG Alex Caruso, CHI | DK: $4.8k, FD: $5.1k | @ OKC
PG Craig Porter Jr., CLE | DK: $4.6k, FD: $4.6k | vs. MIA (Bump if C. LeVert is out, but could be nice value regardless)
SG/SF Max Christie, LAL | DK: $3k, FD: $3.6k | vs. DAL
Small Forwards/Power Forwards to Consider 🏀
SF/PF LeBron James, LAL | DK: $9.6k, FD: $10.5k | vs. DAL
A 32-point blowout over the Jazz tanked what was setting up to be another big game for LeBron, who was trending toward a triple-double (17 points, 7 rebounds, 9 assists) but he ended up playing just 24 minutes. Back to the well, we go as LeBron is on fire as of late, averaging 1.73 FPPM across his previous five games. Extrapolate that FPPM average to 35 minutes, and that works out to 60+ fantasy points. As touched on in the Austin Reaves spotlight, pretty much every key Lakers player has been better at home this season, and that is no different with LeBron who is averaging +8.3% more FPPG in front of his home crowd. The Mavs also represent a plus match-up. Dallas is playing at the 4th fastest pace this season while ranking 25th in DEFRTG. As a result, this game is tied for the slate lead with a 241 over/under with the visiting Mavs being three-point favorites. As is pretty much the norm these days, LeBron will head into tonight with a “questionable” designation but all signs point toward him suiting up tonight, especially when you factor in the limited minutes played last night. This is the only game with a 10:30 ET tip-off, so we can view LeBron as a late-night hammer, though it will be worth having a backup plan in place in the off-chance that James is ruled out for whatever reason.
SF/PF Miles Bridges, CHA | DK: $7.2k, FD: $7.1k | vs. WAS
Yes, this guy sucks as a person, but we’ll put the blinders on for DFS purposes. Both DraftKings and FanDuel have Bridges bumped up over $7k but, now that he’s positioned back in as a starter, he’s probably still about $800-$1,000 too cheap on both sites. Bridges was routinely an $8k player across his last full season in 2021 and he logged 45 minutes in the Hornets’ last game, which did go into overtime, but that was also four more minutes played than LaMelo Ball. Bridges is still showing some slight rust shooting the ball, but that should even out as he continues to play more this season. The match-up also doesn’t get much better. The Wizards continue to be one of the worst defensive teams (27th in DEFRTG) and they’ve played at the 2nd fastest pace. The Hornets are also 10th in pace and check in dead last in DEFRTG, so it’s no surprise to see that lofty 241 over/under in this one, with the Hornets being -4.5 favorites at home. Until Bridges is up over the $8k salary threshold, he’ll be a pretty strong DFS option to go to.
SF/PF Santi Aldama, MEM | DK: $6.1k, FD: $6.2k | @ HOU
Aldama missed the first handful of games this season with an injury but he looks fully healthy now and has entered the starting rotation for an extremely depleted Grizzlies team. In his first start of the season on Sunday, which came against a good Celtics team, Aldama poured in 28 points, 12 rebounds, six assists, and two steals across 39 minutes (in regulation) -- good for 60.0 DKFP/56.4 FDFP. Aldama had procured a pair of excellent performances off of the bench in the two games prior as well -- 38.5 DKFP/36.5 FDFP @ SAS and 40.25 DKFP/39.0 FDFP @ LAL. I haven’t been targeting the Rockets much this season. They’ve been strong defensively (6th in DEFRTG) and play at a slow pace (28th). That helps lead to one of the lower totals on this slate with a 212 over/under. Nonetheless, Aldama is looking like a top two or three scoring option in this current Grizzlies offense and he brings some nice rebounding numbers to the table as well. We’ll keep him on the radar at these salaries out of the low-$6k range.
Other Forwards to Consider
PF/C Giannis Antetokounmpo, MIL | DK: $11.4k, FD: $11.4k | @ BOS
SF/SG Paul George, LAC | DK: $8.8k, FD: $8.6k | @ SAS
SF/PG Scottie Barnes, TOR | DK: $8.6k, FD: $9.1k | @ IND
PF/C Karl-Anthony Towns, MIN | DK: $8.3k, FD: $8.5k | vs. PHI
PF Kyle Kuzma, WAS | DK: $8.2k, FD: $7.9k | @ CHA
PF/C Victor Wembanyama, SAS | DK: $8.1k, FD: $8.7k | vs. LAC (DK Preferred)
SF/SG Jaylen Brown, BOS | DK: $7.5k, FD: $7.5k | vs. MIL (Bump if J. Tatum is out)
SF/PF Keldon Johnson, SAS | DK: $7.2k, FD: $7.2k | vs. LAC
SF/PF Deni Avdija, WAS | DK: $5.6k, FD: $6k | @ CHA (Currently questionable)
SF/SG Brandon Miller, CHA | DK: $5.3k, FD: $5.8k | vs. WAS
SF/PF Kyle Anderson, MIN | DK: $4.6k, FD: $5.3k | vs. PHI (Only if he starts for J. McDaniels)
Centers to Consider 🏀
C Jonas Valanciunas, NOP | DK: $7k, FD: $7.4k | vs. SAC
We have one super chalky center play today, which we’ll get into below, and another under-priced DraftKings center that will also garner plenty of ownership, which I’ll also discuss below. That will lead to plenty of leverage to be had at the position. Despite the continued high fluctuation in minutes, Jonas Valanciunas is finding some fantasy consistency as of late. He’s posted at least 36.75 DKFP/37.5 FDFP in five of his last six games even though he played anywhere from 21 to 34 minutes in each of those games. He needed just 21 minutes against the Kings on Monday to put up 10 points, 13 rebounds, seven assists, three blocks, and a steal (46.25 DKFP/48.1 FDFP). That game was a huge blowout, in favor of the Pelicans, which explains the low minutes in that one. But in the immediate re-match, the Pelicans will be +1.5 home underdogs tonight. If we can get 30+ minutes out of J-Val in this game, he’s one of those guys who can break a slate and he’s virtually always under-owned. It wouldn’t surprise me to see him at < 5% ownership on both sites today, so he’s a great GPP play with 50+ FP upside.
C Paul Reed, PHI | DK: $5k, FD: $4.5k | @ MIN
Here’s the chalk today. No Embiid (hip/out) so Paul Reed should step into the starting five. He did see a price bump on DraftKings but not so much on FanDuel. Regardless, Reed routinely put up fantasy scores in the 30 to 50 FP range when he earned spot starts for Embiid last season. He’s averaging 1.19 FPPM over his last 20 games as a starter and projects for around 30 minutes. It’s a tough match-up versus the Timberwolves but Reed still has a low probability of flopping at these prices.
C Daniel Gafford, DK $4.2k, FD: $5.8k | @ CHA (DK Preferred)
I won’t dive too deep into this play, but just pointing out the head-scratching mispriced by DraftKings here, just in case anyone reading happens to miss it. Sure, Gafford isn’t an overly consistent option, but he should not be $4,200 either, particularly in a likely high-scoring, fast-paced match-up where there will be a ton of possessions to go around. Gafford is not exactly a standout play on FanDuel, but he will have 8x upside at this confusing DraftKings salary.
Other Centers to Consider
C Nikola Jokic, DEN | DK: $12.5k, FD: $12.5k | @ ORL
C Domantas Sabonis, SAC | DK: $10.1k, FD: $10.1k | @ NOP
C Anthony Davis, LAL | DK: $9.8k, FD: $10.7k | vs. DAL (DK Preferred)
C Alperen Sengun, HOU | DK: $8.2k, FD: $8.4k | vs. MEM
C Jusuf Nurkic, PHX | DK: $6.5k, FD: $6.5k | vs. GSW
C Mark Williams, CHA | DK: $6.5k, FD: $6.8k | vs. WAS
C Nic Claxton, BKN | DK: $5.9k, FD: $7k | @ ATL (DK Preferred)
C Goga Bitadze, ORL | DK: $5.1k, FD: $5.2k | vs. DEN
C Precious Achiuwa, TOR | DK: $4k, FD: $4.8k | @ IND (DK Preferred)
PF/C Naz Reid, MIN | DK: $3.9k, FD: $4.5k | vs. PHI
C Trey Lyles, SAC | DK: $3.2k, FD: $4k | @ NOP (Risky GPP dart throw in his season debut)
PrizePicks NBA Power Play ⚡
Here is a two-pick “Power Play” I’m liking for today's NBA action over on PrizePicks! Nothing is ever a guarantee to hit but I put my own money on these bets so I don't just lightly throw these out there without believing they'll cash! If it hits, it will return 3x the wager.
No PrizePicks plays from me today but Shannon & Tyler have you covered with some recommended plays in their props video posted at the top of this newsletter!
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That will wrap us up with today’s “Daily Dribble” edition! Once again, you can find me on Twitter or in LineStar chat @Ryan_Humphries. Good luck everyone!