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- Top NBA DFS Plays & Prop Bets 11/25 | Shaking Off the Turkey Day Hangover
Top NBA DFS Plays & Prop Bets 11/25 | Shaking Off the Turkey Day Hangover
After getting the holiday off, the NBA returns to the hardwood with a massive 13-game slate tonight!
Written By: Ryan Humphries on Twitter & LineStar chat @Ryan_Humphries
DFS Main Slate Rundown 📰
Happy Friday! I hope you all had a fantastic Thanksgiving! There is plenty of NBA action to delve into today with 13 games on the docket so there’s no time to waste! Due to some personal time constraints, this will be a bit of an abbreviated NBA issue today. What won’t be abbreviated is this injury rundown…
Today’s Key Injuries:
76ers: J. Embiid - OUT, J. Harden - OUT, T. Maxey - OUT, M. Thybulle - OUT
Magic: W. Carter Jr. - Questionable, C. Anthony - OUT, C. Okeke - Questionable
Trailblazers: D. Lillard - OUT, D. Eubanks - Questionable, K. Johnson - OUT
Knicks: M. Robinson - Questionable, C. Reddish - Questionable, D. Rose - Questionable
Wizards: B. Beal - Questionable, M. Morris - Questionable, R. Hachimura - Questionable, D. Wright - OUT
Heat: J. Butler - OUT, T. Herro - Questionable, M. Strus - Questionable, C. Martin - Doubtful, G. Vincent - Questionable, H. Highsmith - Probable, D. Dedmon - Questionable, J. Cain - Questionable, D. Robinson - OUT
Bulls: G. Dragic - Questionable
Thunder: M. Muscala - OUT
Pelicans: C. McCollum - OUT, T. Murphy III - Questionable
Grizzlies: D. Bane - OUT, J. Konchar - Questionable, S. Adams - Questionable, S. Aldama - Doubtful
Cavs: C. LeVert - OUT, K. Love - OUT, L. Stevens - Doubtful
Bucks: J. Holiday - Probable, P. Connaughton - Questionable, S. Ibaka - Questionable
Nets: Y. Watanabe - OUT
Pacers: C. Duarte - OUT, I. Jackson - Questionable, A. Nembhard - Questionable
Rockets: J. Green - Probable, A. Sengun - Doubtful, E. Gordon - OUT, J. Tate - OUT, B. Fernando - Questionable
Lakers: A. Davis - Probable, L. James - Questionable, P. Beverly - OUT, Juan Toscano-Anderson - Probable
Spurs: J. Richardson - OUT, D. McDermott - OUT
Pistons: C. Cunningham - OUT, J. Ivey - Questionable, I. Stewart - OUT, K. Hayes - Questionable, S. Bey - OUT, H. Diallo - Questionable
Suns: C. Paul - OUT, C. Johnson - OUT, L. Shamet - OUT
Jazz: M. Conley - OUT
Nuggets: N. Jokic - Probable, B. Hyland - OUT, M. Porter Jr. - Questionable, J. Green - OUT
Clippers: P. George - OUT, K. Leonard - OUT, L. Kennard - OUT
Main Slate Match-Ups w/ Game Totals & Point Spreads
Note: NBA position designations are never going to perfectly align between the major DFS sites. For the purposes of these newsletters, positional designations will default to DraftKings.
💫 = Favorite Play
Point Guards/Shooting Guards to Consider 🏀
PG Kevin Porter Jr., HOU | DK: $7.9k, FD: $7.9k | @ ATL | GPP Preferred
The Rockets are looking a little shorthanded tonight with Eric Gordon out and Alperen Sengun doubtful. KPJ is coming off of back-to-back 50+ DKFP performances and he’ll have similar upside tonight given his team-high +5.02% usage boost without Sengun and Gordon on the floor. KPJ is also averaging +5.2 DKFP at home this season. The Rockets are +8 underdogs against the Hawks tonight but KPJ has still played strong mid-30s minutes even in games that have gotten out of hand.
💫PG/SG Shake Milton, PHI | DK: $6k, FD: $6.4k | @ ORL | Cash & GPP
Milton has been an excellent source of value since entering the starting rotation following the Tyrese Maxey injury. He has averaged 1.01 FPPM in his last three games (all starts) while playing 38, 36, and 39 minutes. Orlando is one of the worst teams in the NBA when it comes to backcourt defense so Milton’s big minutes should very likely lead to some further quality DFS production.
💫SG/SF Malik Beasley, UTA | DK: $4.9k, FD: $5.7k | @ GSW | Cash & GPP
Beasley can pour in the points off of the bench when given the minutes. He has played at least 29 minutes in seven of the last eight games and his minutes remain fairly secure with the absence of Mike Conley tonight. Beasley has at least 27 actual points scored in three of his last four and the Warriors’ second unit has been absolutely awful, ranking dead last defensively in their last 20 games.
Other Guards to Consider:
PG Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, OKC | DK: $10.2k, FD: $10.6k | vs. CHI | GPP Preferred
PG Trae Young, ATL | DK: $10k, FD: $9.8k | @ HOU | GPP Preferred
PG/SG Collin Sexton, UTA | DK: $4.6k, FD: $4.7k | @ GSW | Cash & GPP
💫PG Jose Alvarado, NOP | DK: $3.8k, FD: $4.7k | @ MEM | Cash & GPP
💫PG/SG Devonte’ Graham, NOP | DK: $3.5k, FD: $3.5k | @ MEM | Cash & GPP
Small Forwards/Power Forwards to Consider 🏀
💫SF/PF DeMar DeRozan, CHI | DK: $8.1k, FD: $8.4k | @ OKC | Cash & GPP
The upper tier of forwards isn’t overly enticing today but DDR stands out once we get down into the $8k range. DeRozan has secured at least 43.5 DKFP in five of his last six games and most recently went off for 59.0 DKFP in his last game against Milwaukee (the No. 1 ranked team in defensive efficiency). OKC has ranked 24th in defensive efficiency this season and they check in 3rd in pace. Expect huge minutes and production out of DeRozan tonight in what is expected to be a close, high-scoring match-up (CHI -3, 232 O/U).
💫SF/SG Norman Powell, LAC | DK: $4.7k, FD: $5.8k | Cash & GPP/DK Preferred
Powell owns a team-high +9.3% usage boost and +15.4 FP per 48-minute increase when Paul George and Kawhi Leonard have been off the floor. He’s more of a GPP play on FanDuel but Powell brings excellent 6x upside to lineups over on DraftKings.
SF/PF Deni Avdija, WAS | DK: $4.6k, FD: $4.4k | @ MIA | Cash & GPP (Pending Injury News)
Bradley Beal, Monte Morris, and Rui Hachimura are all shaping up to be true game-time decisions after getting in limited shootaround sessions earlier today. If any combination of those three guys sit out tonight, it will bode well for Avdija who would see a slight usage increase but a more noticeable boost through his peripheral stats. Avdija handled a massive 41-minute workload in this same Miami match-up on Wednesday and he fell one assist shy of a triple-double while scoring 44.25 DKFP. Given where he is priced at in DFS, I would still consider Avdija playable even if Beal/Morris/Hachimura all suit up, but that would obviously skim off some of his overall ceiling.
Other Forwards to Consider:
SF/PF Jayson Tatum, BOS | DK: $10.8k, FD: $10.2k | vs. SAC | GPP Preferred
💫SF/SG Jaylen Brown, BOS | DK: $8.5k, FD: $8.5k | vs. SAC | Cash & GPP
PF/C Ben Simmons, BKN | DK: $7.2k, FD: $8k | @ IND | GPP/DK Preferred
SF/SG Kevin Huerter, SAC | DK: $6.1k, FD: $5.8k | @ BOS | GPP Preferred
Centers to Consider 🏀
C Anthony Davis, LAL | DK: $10.9k, FD: $11.8k | @ SAS | Cash & GPP (GPP Preferred if LeBron is back)
Expectations will be tempered if LeBron (groin/questionable) returns to the lineup after missing the last five games. In those five games, Anthony Davis has punched it into another gear while averaging 67.9 DKFPPG and an absurd 2.02 DKFPPM. He could still hit value if LeBron suits up, but the upside that he has shown off in the last handful of games would take a major hit.
C Kevon Looney, GSW | DK: $4k, FD: $4.1k | vs. UTA | Cash & GPP
Is Looney ever an exciting play? Not really. His minutes typically land in the low-to-mid 20s and he’s never going to be anything close to a high-usage player. However, at $4k/$4.1k, he’s often a safe bet to hit 5x to 6x value with low-end potential to return 7x to 8x value. He’ll draw an enticing match-up against Utah, who ranks 28th against starting centers.
Other Centers to Consider:
C Myles Turner, IND | DK: $7.4k, FD: $7.7k | vs. BKN | GPP Preferred
💫C Al Horford, BOS | DK: $5.6k, FD: $5.5k | vs. SAC | Cash & GPP
C Paul Reed, PHI | DK: $4.8k, FD: $6k | @ ORL | GPP/DK Preferred
NBA Player Props 📊
Player Prop or Bet | Odds | Unit Bet Size
Malik Beasley OVER 18.5 Points + Rebounds | +100 (PointsBet) | 2.0 Units
Beasley was covered in the DFS section above but the gist is that he’ll see decent run (28-30 minutes) off of the bench with Mike Conley sidelined and the Warriors’ second unit has been awful defensively this season. Beasley has accounted for a 25.6% USG% in his last five games and is averaging 21.0 PPG and 5.4 RPG in that span. He could hit the over on this prop via only points scored but adding in the rebounds provides a bit more safety.
Jaren Jackson Jr. OVER 2.5 Blocks | +150 (DraftKings) | 1.5 Units
JJJ has already racked up 13 blocks in three games while playing 25.5 Min/Gm. His minutes restrictions should continue to gradually loosen up and we could hope for Jackson to log 30 minutes tonight. The man is a shot-blocking machine and, while expecting 3+ blocks from him tonight is a touch unlikely, I believe we can throw a little scratch at this prop that he has hit the over on in all three games played this season. The Pelicans rank 17th in blocks allowed (5.3 BPG) and may also force more shots closer to the basket with CJ McCollum out tonight.
PrizePicks Two-Pick Power Play ⚡
Here is a two-pick “Power Play” I’m liking for today's NBA action over on PrizePicks! Nothing is ever a guarantee to hit but I put my own money on these bets so I don't just lightly throw these out there without believing they'll cash! If it hits, it will return 3x the wager.
Malik Beasley MORE than 18.5 PTS + REBS
Royce O'Neale MORE than 254.5 Fantasy Score
🆕 Props Edge+ 🆕
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Speaking of props, put the Props Edge+ tool to use by signing up for PrizePicks (Promo code: BETFULLY) or Underdog (Promo code: LINESTAR). You'll receive a 100% match on first deposits up to $100 PLUS a free two-month subscription to LineStar Premium. Many people may not realize that you can legally place prop bets in most states using UnderDog (or PrizePicks) – it’s called Pick'Em, and it’s incredibly easy.
That will wrap us up with today’s “Daily Dribble” edition! Once again, you can find me on Twitter or in LineStar chat @Ryan_Humphries. Good luck everyone!