Top NBA DFS Plays & Prop Bets 11/27 | Dissecting a Five-Game Cyber Monday Slate!

Top DFS Plays & Props for Monday's NBA Action!

Written By: Ryan Humphries on Twitter & LineStar chat @Ryan_Humphries

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DFS Main Slate Rundown 📰

I hope everyone had an excellent Thanksgiving and enjoyed the long weekend! We’re back in business with a modest, but intriguing, five-game Monday slate. We’re expecting ample scoring today with four games featuring at least a 230.5 over/under. Only one game has a spread larger than six points, as well. Let’s hop to it and try to find the right pieces to today’s puzzle. Best of luck!

 

Today’s Key Injuries

  • Trailblazers: A. Simons - OUT

  • Pacers: A. Nesmith - Questionable

  • Lakers: A. Davis - Probable, L. James - Questionable, C. Reddish - Questionable, R. Hachimura - OUT, G. Vincent - OUT

  • 76ers: K. Oubre Jr. - OUT, D. House Jr. - OUT, J. Springer - OUT

  • Wizards: J. Poole - Questionable, D. Wright - OUT

  • Pistons: J. Harris - OUT

  • Pelicans: CJ McCollum - OUT, M. Ryan - OUT

  • Jazz: L. Markkanen - OUT

  • Nuggets: N. Jokic - Questionable, J. Murray - OUT, A. Gordon - OUT, P. Watson - Probable, H. Tyson - Questionable

  • Clippers: M. Plumlee - OUT

Main Slate Match-Ups w/ Game Totals & Point Spreads

Top DraftKings & FanDuel DFS Plays

Note: NBA position designations are never going to perfectly align between the major DFS sites. For the purposes of these newsletters, positional designations will default to DraftKings.

Point Guards/Shooting Guards to Consider 🏀

PG/SG Malcolm Brogdon, POR | DK: $7.9k, FD: $7.7k | @ IND

We will need to monitor any potential minutes restrictions for Brogdon today since the Trailblazers did play yesterday and he is just three games removed from a hamstring injury that sidelined him for five games. We’re also going to hope for Portland to keep this game within reach as they are, by far, the largest underdogs on the slate (POR +12.5). With those caveats out of the way, Brodgon sets up nicely on this slate and brings 50+ FP potential at a sub-$8k salary on both sites. He is averaging an excellent 1.29 FPPM on the season and he has put up at least 47.25 DKFP/44.9 FDFP in the three games that he has started and played at least 34 minutes in this season. The Pacers have been an ideal team to target this season thanks to their extremely fast tempo (1st in pace) and lack of overall defense (28th in DEFRTG). They do boast a high-octane offense captained by star point guard Tyrese Haliburton (DK: $11k, FD: $10.6k) so it’ll be a tough task for Portland to keep up today. That said, if the Trailblazers make this game competitive, then it’s almost a guarantee that Brogdon will be largely responsible.

PG/SG Jaden Ivey, DET | DK: $5.4k, FD: $5.2k | vs. WAS

As you’re likely aware, the Wizards are another team we’re routinely targeting with opposing players this season. Washington ranks 2nd in pace and dead last in defensive rating. Jaden Ivey has earned the starting nod in Detroit’s previous three games and most recently logged a season-high 32 minutes in their loss to the Pacers on Friday where he posted up a respectable 35.0 DKFP/34.9 FDFP. The Pistons will be at home tonight where Ivey has shot 60.7% from the field this season, versus 50.0% FG% on the road. Ivey has averaged exactly 1.00 FPPM over his last 20 games as a starter, so there’s clear value to be had if he continues to handle 30+ minutes. This game features the closest spread of the day (DET -2.5) so we’ll go into this one expecting a competitive game and full minutes for the starters.

 

SG/SF Justin Holiday, DEN | DK: $3.3k, FD: $3.5k | @ LAC

Holiday has been a fringe rotational player off the bench for the Nuggets this season but he received the starting nod yesterday in place of the injured Aaron Gordon (heel/out), who will miss a second consecutive game tonight. It wasn’t a big game for Holiday by any means (14.5 DKFP/14.9 FDFP) but he did receive 27 minutes en route to a 132-120 Nuggets victory. We’ll assume that HC Michael Malone will roll with the “if it isn’t broke, don’t fix it” approach and slide Holiday back into the starting five again tonight (though, that isn’t a guarantee). Holiday is only averaging 0.59 FPPM this season but he’s also dirt cheap and would have a chance at 28-32 minutes if he’s given a starter’s role once again. If you’re looking to load up on multiple superstars, punting with Holiday, who is SG-eligible on both sites, will be one way to make that a more feasible lineup approach.

 

Other Guards to Consider

PG Tyrese Haliburton, IND | DK: $11k, FD: $10.6k | vs. POR

PG Tyrese Maxey, PHI | DK: $9.2k, FD: $9.2k | vs. LAL

PG Cade Cunningham, DET | DK: $8.3k, FD: $8k | vs. WAS

PG/SG Jordan Clarkson, UTA | DK: $7.4k, FD: $6.8k | vs. NOP

SG/SF Buddy Hield, IND | DK: $6.4k, FD: $5.3k | vs. POR (Assuming he continues to start)

PG/SG De’Anthony Melton, PHI | DK: $6k, FD: $6.2k | vs. LAL

PG/SF Dyson Daniels, NOP | DK: $5.7k, FD: $5.5k | @ UTA

PG/SG Collin Sexton, IND | DK: $5.1k, FD: $4.9k | vs. NOP

PG Jose Alvarado, NOP | DK: $4k, FD: $4.9k | @ UTA (DK Preferred)

SG/SF Max Christie, LAL | DK: $3.9k, FD: $4k | @ PHI (Only if C. Reddish is out & Christie starts)

SG Johnny Davis, WAS | DK: $3.2k, FD: $3.6k | @ DET (Only if J. Poole is out)

Small Forwards/Power Forwards to Consider 🏀

PF Zion Willaimson, NOP | DK: $8.7k, FD: $8.1k | @ UTA

There aren’t any can’t-miss standout forward plays at the top of DFS pricing today, so I’d anticipate ownership to be spread out quite a bit among these pricier forwards. Zion Williamson will land in a strong spot to deliver a solid floor with moderate potential at a ceiling game. Williamson is attempting 16.9 two-point shots per game, which is second only to Joel Embiid on this slate. The Jazz are surrendering the 6th most PPG from two-point range and they’ll be playing without forward Lauri Markkanen (hamstring/out) tonight, who has been statistically their best defender this season. Zion is also contributing 5.4 APG, 5.0 RPG, and 2.0 STL+BLK/gm over his last five starts so the peripheral stats have been decent as well. Good chance of a 50+ FP night out of Zion today.

SF/SG Austin Reaves, LAL | DK: $6.2k, FD: $6.4k | @ LAL

Reave will look to take on an increased role off of the Lakers’ bench with PF Rui Hachimura (nose/out) ruled out for a second consecutive game. Reaves posted a 15-point, 10-assist double-double on Saturday, while also bringing down five rebounds and snagging a pair of steals -- good for 41.25 DKFP/40 FDFP. Of course, we can’t count on double-digit assists out of him with any regularity but Reaves is averaging a strong 1.20 FPPM over his last five games and should eclipse 30 minutes played tonight. The 76ers have not been overly stout defensively against bench units this season so I believe it’s another spot where Reaves can push for 6x value or better.

 

SF/PF Terrance Mann, LAC | DK: $4.1k, FD: $4.6k | vs. DEN

Mann is another one of those unexciting plays that we’re really only considering because he's a cheap starter and will allow us to more easily fit multiple superstars into the same lineup. Mann has started the last five games for the Clippers and, though he is typically limited to mid-20s minutes in a low-usage role, he is coming off of a game against the Mavs on Saturday where he reached season-highs in minutes (32), shot attempts (14), and points scored (17). Mann has also come away with multiple steals + blocks in four of his last five games so he adds plenty of value in those premium statistical categories. He’s not a threat to break a slate, but he does bring 6x potential to lineups today, particularly at $4,100 on DraftKings.

 

Other Forwards to Consider

SF/PF LeBron James, LAL | DK: $9.7k, FD: $10.2k | @ PHI

PF Kawhi Leonard, LAC | DK: $8k, FD: $8.3k | vs. DEN

PF Jerami Grant, POR | DK: $7.6k, FD: $7.4k | @ IND

SF Ausar Thompson, DET | DK: $6.5k, FD: $7.1k | vs. WAS

SF/PF Herbert Jones, NOP | DK: $5.9k, FD: $6.3k | @ UTA

SF/SG Talen Horton-Tucker, UTA | DK: $5.4k, FD: $5.1k | vs. NOP

PF/C Obi Tobbin, IND | DK: $5k, FD: $4.8k | vs. POR

PF Isaiah Livers, DET | DK: $3.5k, FD: $3.9k | vs. WAS

Centers to Consider 🏀

C Jalen Duren, DET | DK: $6.7k, FD: $6.7k | vs. WAS

Duren was on fire to begin the season but has since been dealing with injuries and inconsistent performances. Following a five-game absence due to an ankle injury, Duren logged 29 minutes off of the Pistons’ bench in their last game and poured in a 13/13 double-double with four assists, a block, and a steal (39.75 DKFP/38.6 FDFP). Whether he re-enters the starting rotation tonight (which seems likely) or continues to play strong minutes off the bench, he’s an attractive center play at $6,700 on both sites. The Wizards allow the 2nd most points in the paint per game and rank dead last in rebounding percentage so, combined with their poor defense and fast pace, they’re always a team worth targeting when it comes to opposing bigs.

 

C Jalen Smith, IND | DK: $4.2k, FD: $4.1k | vs. POR

The Trailblazers have been bulldozed by opposing bigs all season and the Pacers have a trio of centers that could put up some production tonight. You could roll with starter Myles Turner (DK: $7.2k, FD: $7.6k), Jalen Smith, or even Isaiah Jackson (DK: $3.6k, FD: $4.5k). But we’ll give Jalen Smith the spotlight here due to the potential for some added run in a possible blowout (IND -12.5). His minutes have been up-and-down recently but if he can find around 20 minutes tonight, he’ll be a strong bet to return value. Smith has averaged a sturdy 1.28 FPPM on the season and doesn’t necessarily need significant minutes to return 6x (or better) value.

Other Centers to Consider

C Nikola Jokic, DEN | DK: $12.8k, FD: $12.6k | @ LAC (Jokic is currently questionable)

C Joel Embiid, PHI | DK: $11.7k, FD: $12.2k | vs. LAL

C Anthony Davis, LAL | DK: $9.8k, FD: $10.8k | @ PHI (DK Preferred)

C Myles Turner, IND | DK: $7.2k, FD: $7.6k | vs. POR

C Walker Kessler, UTA | DK: $5.5k, FD: $5.7k | vs. NOP

PF/C Isaiah Stewart, DET | DK: $5.5k, FD: $6.1k | vs. WAS

C Isaiah Jackson, IND | DK: $3.6k, FD: $4.5k | vs. POR (DK Preferred)

C Deandre Jordan, DEN | DK: $3.2k, FD: $3.5k | @ LAC (If Jokic is ruled out)

PrizePicks NBA Power Play ⚡

Here is a two-pick “Power Play” I’m liking for today's NBA action over on PrizePicks! Nothing is ever a guarantee to hit but I put my own money on these bets so I don't just lightly throw these out there without believing they'll cash! If it hits, it will return 3x the wager.

Herbert Jones MORE than 2.5 Assists

Terrence Mann MORE than 17.0 Fantasy Score

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That will wrap us up with today’s “Daily Dribble” edition! Once again, you can find me on Twitter or in LineStar chat @Ryan_Humphries. Good luck everyone!