Top NBA DFS Plays & Prop Bets 11/3 | Locating the Right Value On Tonight's Two-Game Slate!

Two-game slates always require a little extra creativity if we hope to gain exposure to the available star players. Read on to find some value players to consider for DFS lineups tonight and, as always, we've got some prop action to get into as well!

Written By: Ryan Humphries on Twitter & LineStar chat @Ryan_Humphries

DFS Main Slate Rundown 📰

It’s a rather quiet day in the NBA, with just two games tipping off this evening. Two-game slates aren’t exactly thrilling from a DFS standpoint. To get exposure to the stud players available, like Nikola Jokic, Steph Curry, or SGA, we’ll need to find adequate value plays that can at least return 5x value or better. That becomes a more difficult task with only four teams in play. But that will be our challenge for today! Feel free to play this slate a little light as a massive 12-game slate awaits us tomorrow!

Key Injury News (as of this afternoon):

GSW: SG/SF Donte DiVincenzo - OUT

ORL: PG Cole Anthony - OUT, SG/SF Terrence Ross - questionable

DEN: PG/SG Bones Hyland - questionable, PG Ish Smith - questionable

Main Slate Match-Ups w/ Game Totals & Point Spreads

Note: NBA position designations are never going to perfectly align between the major DFS sites. For the purposes of these newsletters, positional designations will default to DraftKings.

💫 = Favorite Play

Point Guards/Shooting Guards to Consider 🏀

💫 PG Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, OKC | DK: $9.7k, FD: $10.8k | vs. DEN | Cash & GPP

At point guard today, we have two of the three studs available on this slate with SGA and Steph Curry. I believe we’re splitting hairs when it comes to claiming one guy is the better play over the other, and ideally, it would be nice to jam in both SGA and Curry into the same lineup. The concern with SGA stems from the presence of Josh Giddey, who returned from a three-game absence on Tuesday. However, Giddey played only 25 minutes in that game and his presence on the court didn’t seem to impact SGA much, if at all, as SGA went on to put up 34 points, six assists, four rebounds, three steals, and two blocks (55.5 DKFP/57.8 FDFP). Giddey’s 24.0% USG% is not much higher than the player who replaced him in the starting lineup while he was out -- Tre Mann, 21.1% USG%. Giddey is also a better facilitator than Mann so that could mean better shot opportunities for SGA. Also, when it comes to the SGA vs. Curry debate today, SGA gets the clear nod in the steals/blocks department. SGA is averaging an impressive 3.8 STL+BLK/Gm, compared to 1.5 STL+BLK/Gm for Curry. Both guys have similarly high usage rates (SGA: 33.3% USG%, Curry: 31.1% USG%) but SGA draws the better match-up against a Denver team that ranks 25th in defensive efficiency.

💫 PG Jamal Murray, DEN | DK: $5.6k, FD: $5.6k | @ OKC | GPP Preferred

Murray played a season-high 32 minutes in Denver’s last game on Sunday. Unsurprisingly, he also reached season highs in points (21), shot attempts (21), and three-pointers made (three). With Murray’s minutes on the rise and his DFS salaries declining, this may be the time to get on board with him in DFS lineups. It’s a stretch to hope for 20+ FGA for a second consecutive game but Murray is out there to put up shots so around 15 FGA is a reasonable expectation. Murray is averaging 0.91 DKFPPM, which is not close to what he can produce. Regardless, if he plays around 32 minutes tonight, he’ll have a good shot at returning 5x to 6x value given his $5,600 DFS salary on both sites.

SG Kentavious Caldwell-Pope, DEN | DK: $5k, FD: $5.4k | @ OKC | Cash & GPP

KCP is going to be a popular guard option on this slate as people search for a solid value play with a decent floor to fit into their lineups. KCP is playing just under 32 Min/Gm this season and averaging 0.81 DKFPPM. He’s not a high usage player, as he is attempting just 8.5 FGA/Gm, but he is sinking 53.3% of his 3PA (5.0 3PA/Gm), and he’s a solid source of steals/blocks (1.7 STL+BLK/Gm) relative to his price. If this is one of those games where KCP puts up around a dozen shots, many of which come from beyond the arc, then we could likely see him push for 6x value.

Also Consider:

 

💫 PG Steph Curry, GSW | DK: $9.9k, FD: $10.2k | @ ORL | Cash & GPP

PG/SF Josh Giddey, OKC | DK: $7k, FD: $7.3k | vs. DEN | GPP Preferred

SG Klay Thompson, GSW | DK: $5.5k, FD: $5.2k | @ ORL | GPP Preferred

Small Forwards/Power Forwards to Consider 🏀

💫 SF Michael Porter Jr., DEN | DK: $6.5k, FD: $7k | @ OKC | Cash & GPP

MPJ has been a consistent contributor for this Denver offense this season. He has scored between 15 and 22 points in all six of his games (18.5 PPG) while also bringing down 7.5 RPG. He has also been extremely effective from long range, shooting 48.9% from three. His 7.8 3PA/Gm trail only Steph Curry (12.0 3PA/Gm) and Klay Thompson (8.7 3PA/Gm) on this slate. Unless he goes completely cold from three-point range, MPJ will represent a strong floor play on this two-game slate.

💫 SF/PF Bol Bol, ORL | DK: $6.2k, FD: $5.8k | vs. GSW | Cash & GPP

Note: Bol Bol is a center-eligible only player on FanDuel.

Bol Bol has finally been given his chance to play as a routine starter, and he has not disappointed from a DFS perspective. He has started in Orlando’s last three games and has posted a 1.10 DKFPPM average in 29.3 Min/Gm. That is a tick below his 1.21 DKFPPM average for the season but the fact that he is starting and a good bet to play around 30 minutes night in and night out does wonders for his floor. He leads all starters on this slate with an 18.5% rebound% so, as long as he continues to see starter’s minutes, he is an easy double-double candidate to target today. As you might expect from a 7’2” player, Bol Bol is also a great source of blocks with 2.6 BLK/Gm recorded this season.

💫 PF/C Jeff Green, DEN | DK: $3.2k, FD: $4.1k | @ OKC | Cash & GPP/DK Preferred

Green will be a stronger target on DraftKings where he is priced at just $200 above the minimum. He is playing decent minutes off of the Nuggets bench and has logged 20+ minutes in four of his last five games. OKC rolls out several bigs (Bazley, Pokusevski, Muscala, Dieng) off their bench so Jeff Green’s size will be needed with those guys on the court. Green is averaging 0.84 DKFPPM so it’s easy to see how he can return upwards of 6x value (on DraftKings) if he handles 20+ minutes. And, at the very least, he’s not going to completely torch your lineups if he only puts up something like 12.0 DKFP.

Also Consider:

 

PF Paolo Banchero, ORL | DK: $8.2k, FD: $8.5k | vs. GSW | GPP Preferred

💫 SF Andrew Wiggins, GSW | DK: $6.8k, FD: $8k | @ ORL | Cash & GPP/DK Preferred

PF Aaron Gordon, DEN | DK: $5.9k, FD: $5.9k | @ OKC | Cash & GPP

PF/C Aleksej Pokusevski, OKC | DK: $4.6k, FD: $5k | vs. DEN | GPP Preferred

PF/C Darius Bazley, OKC | DK: $3.9k, FD: $4.7k | vs. DEN | GPP/DK Preferred

Centers to Consider 🏀

💫 C Nikola Jokic, DEN | DK: $11.4k, FD: $11.5k | @ OKC | Cash & GPP

You don’t need me to tell you that Jokic is the top center on this slate. Has he been a bit inconsistent recently? For sure. It would seem that the return of Jamal Murray and Michael Porter Jr. to the everyday lineup has impacted his FPPM prowess. However, he possesses by far the most upside on this slate. And in his two recent ‘down games’ he played under 28 minutes in both. On a typical night, we can expect Jokic to push for around 35 minutes. This match-up does possess the closest spread of the two games (DEN -6.5) and Denver checks in with a slate-high 117.8 implied points. Even if his raw point scoring is taking a hit this season, Jokic’s potential for a triple-double on any given night makes him a tough fade on this small slate.

C Kevon Looney, GSW | DK: $4.1k, FD: $4.4k | @ ORL | Cash & GPP

Looney is only averaging 22.5 Min/Gm this season and he’s a very low usage player (8.8% USG%) but there is a certain sense of security you get with having a guaranteed starter at this low of a price point. This is not a particularly easy match-up against Orlando (ranks 4th against opposing centers) but Looney has averaged 0.85 DKFPPM this season so if this is one of those games where he pushes for closer to 25+ minutes, I like his chances of offering a 5x to 6x return on value.

Also Consider:

 

C Wendell Carter Jr., ORL | DK: $7.4k, FD: $7.6k | vs. GSW | GPP Preferred

PF/C Draymond Green, GSW | DK: $6k, FD: $5.7k | @ ORL | GPP Preferred

NBA Player Props 📊

Player Prop or Bet | Odds | Unit Bet Size

Michael Porter Jr. OVER 2.5 Three-Pointers Made | -139 (Caesars) | 2.25 Units

As mentioned in MPJ’s DFS write-up above, only Steph Curry (12.0 3PA/Gm) and Klay Thompson (8.7 3PA/Gm) put up more three-point attempts per game than Porter (7.8 3PA/Gm) among players taking the court tonight. He’s converting a whopping 48.9% of his 3PA into buckets this season, which is considerably better three-point efficiency than the Splash Bros. MPJ has hit the over on this prop in five consecutive games and he has at least four three-pointers made in four of his last five. This is a great prop to take the over on this evening.

Shai Gilgeous-Alexander OVER 1.5 Steals | -105 (DraftKings) | 2.0 Units

SGA has boosted his pickpocket skills this season and now ranks 2nd in the NBA with 2.5 steals per game. He has recorded at least two steals in 5-of-6 games this season, including four games with three steals. Denver is not super careless with the ball as their 14.1 turnovers/gm represent the 11th fewest. And, coincidentally, the only game where SGA *didn’t* record at least two steals was against this Denver team back on Oct. 22nd. Regardless, I believe this is a strong prop to lock onto since it’s coming in at near-even money.

PrizePicks Two-Pick Power Play ⚡

Here is a two-pick “Power Play” I’m liking for today's NBA action over on PrizePicks! Nothing is ever a guarantee to hit but I put my own money on these bets so I don't just lightly throw these out there without believing they'll cash! If it hits, it will return 3x the wager.

Shai Gilgeous-Alexander MORE than 1.5 Steals

Stephen Curry MORE than 32.5 Points + Rebounds

🆕 Props Edge+ 🆕

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That will wrap us up with today’s “Daily Dribble” edition! Once again, you can find me on Twitter or in LineStar chat @Ryan_Humphries. Good luck everyone!