Let's lock and load for tonight’s huge NBA slate! We’ll dive into today’s best DFS plays and prop bets to consider. The prop bets have been treating us well -- up +15.35 units this season!

Written By: Ryan Humphries on Twitter & LineStar chat @Ryan_Humphries

DFS Main Slate Rundown 📰

After a rather quiet NBA Thursday, we’re getting smacked in the face with a chaotic 12-game slate this evening! With the massive slate comes a massive amount of injury news, and several star players will be (or are in danger of) sitting out tonight. Let’s go ahead and get into the injury rundown, many of which will have a major impact on our DFS/prop decision-making on this slate…

Today’s key injury news (as of this afternoon):

BKN: PG Kyrie Irving - OUT, PG/SF Ben Simmons - OUT, SG Seth Curry - OUT

WAS: PG Delon Wright - OUT

MIA: PF Jimmy Butler - OUT, C Bam Adebayo - questionable, C Dewayne Dedmon - questionable

IND: SF Aaron Nesmith - questionable

CLE: PG/SG Donovan Mitchell - questionable, PG Darius Garland - questionable, PG Raul Neto - questionable

DET: C Jalen Duren - probable

PHI: C Joel Embiid - questionable, PG/SG James Harden - OUT, SG/SF Matisse Thybulle - questionable

CHI: C Andre Drummond - OUT, PG/SG Coby White - OUT

CHA: PG/SG Terry Rozier - DOUBTFUL, SF Gordon Hayward - OUT, SG/SF Cody Martin - DOUBTFUL

LAC: SF/PF Kawhi Leonard - OUT, PF/C Robert Covington - OUT

TOR: PG/SG Fred VanVleet - questionable

GSW: PG Steph Curry - OUT, SF Andrew Wiggins - OUT, PF/C Draymond Green - OUT, SG Klay Thompson - OUT, SG/SF Donte DiVincenzo - questionable

NOP: SG Brandon Ingram - probable, SF Herbert Jones - probable

MIL: PF/C Giannis - probable

MIN: SG/SF Anthony Edwards - questionable, C Rudy Gobert - questionable

POR: PG Damian Lillard - OUT, PG/SG Anfernee Simons - OUT

PHC: C Deandre Ayton - probable, PG/SG Cameron Payne - probable, PF/C Torrey Craig - probable

LAL: PF LeBron James - questionable, PF/C Anthony Davis - questionable

…. yeah, that is quite the list. Many of the stud players above are already designated as out for tonight, including nearly the entire Warriors starting lineup. Still, there are a ton of big names that carry those pesky “questionable” injury designations as well. This is going to be one of those massive slates where you’ll NEED to be able to pay attention to injury news throughout the afternoon/evening. Being able to late swap with late-breaking injury news could be a huge advantage tonight. If you cannot do that, I recommend either going light on your bankroll, playing one of the smaller split slates, or skipping tonight’s slates altogether. But, ultimately, it’s your call! I wish everyone the best of luck on this wild night of NBA action.

Main Slate Match-Ups w/ Game Totals & Point Spreads

Note: NBA position designations are never going to perfectly align between the major DFS sites. For the purposes of these newsletters, positional designations will default to DraftKings.

💫 = Favorite Play

Point Guards/Shooting Guards to Consider 🏀

PG Luka Doncic, DAL | DK: $12.4k, FD: $11.8k | vs. TOR | Cash & GPP

With all of the value available today, it will not be difficult to jam studs like Luka into lineups. He leads all NBA players with an astronomical 40.5% USG% (36.1 PPG), and he’s tacking on 9.0 APG, 8.9 RPG, and 2.1 STL+BLK/Gm while averaging 1.83 DKFPPM. The negative? Luka is shooting a miserable 23.7% from three and he’s attempting 8.4 3PA/Gm so there are a lot of wasted shots there. This game also features two of the slowest-paced teams in the NBA and, as a result, it holds quite easily the lowest total on the slate (216.5 O/U). However, in two games against Toronto last season, Luka put up 58 DKFP and 73 DKFP. Given his role in this offense, that at times seems like he IS the entire offense, to go along with incredible peripherals, Luka is an easy target on nearly every slate where he is in play.

💫 PG Tyrese Maxey, PHI | DK: $6.5k, FD: $8.2k | vs. NYK | Cash & GPP/DK Preferred

The 76ers will be without James Harden for a while, and Joel Embiid is not a guarantee to suit up tonight, either. Even if Embiid plays, Maxey has to draw plenty of DFS consideration, particularly on DraftKings, where his current $6,500 salary does not reflect his role in a Harden-less offense. In 92 minutes with Harden off the court this season, Maxey (25.9% USG%) has seen his usage rate increase a whopping +9.9%, and he’s averaging an additional +26.5 DKFP per 48 minutes (via LineStar’s Usage Matrix tool). The 76ers check in as -3.5 home favorites against the Knicks tonight. That spread leads me to believe that Embiid is likely playing. Maxey is a candidate to push for 40+ minutes tonight and should put up 20-30 shots. Also, it’s Maxey’s birthday today. Feel free to give him a “birthday boost” narrative if you’d like.

💫 PG/SG Jordan Poole, GSW | DK: $6.5k, FD: $6.5k | @ NOP | Cash & GPP

The Warriors are resting Curry, Wiggins, Green, and Thompson tonight so they will have only 10 players available. Those injuries should clearly lead to Poole appearing in the starting lineup tonight, and his usage rate should skyrocket to somewhere in the 30-35% range with a mid-30s minutes workload. Even though the Warriors are +10.5 underdogs in this game, Poole should play big minutes and put up 20+ shots by the time it’s all said and done.

Also Consider:

💫 PG/SG Tyler Herro, MIA | DK: $7.6k, FD: $7k | @ IND | Cash & GPP

PG Darius Garland, CLE | DK: $6.9k, FD: $7.9k | @ DET | GPP Preferred

PG Kyle Lowry, MIA | DK: $6.3k, FD: $6.5k | @ IND | Cash & GPP

SG/SF Buddy Hield, IND | DK: $6.1k, FD: $6.8k | vs. MIA | GPP Preferred

PG/SG Shaedon Sharpe, POR | DK: $4.5k, FD: $4.2k | @ PHX | GPP Preferred

💫 PG/SG De’Anthony Melton, PHI | DK: $4.4k, FD: $6k | vs. NYK Cash & GPP/DK Preferred

SG/SF Keon Johnson, POR | DK: $3.4k, FD: $3.8k | @ PHX | Cash & GPP/DK Preferred

💫 PG Patty Mills, BKN | DK: $3.4k, FD: $3.8k | @ WAS | Cash & GPP

Small Forwards/Power Forwards to Consider 🏀

💫 SF Kevin Durant, BKN | DK: $10.3k, FD: $10.4k | @ WAS | Cash & GPP

This Nets squad may be the most unlikable NBA team in decades, but despite all of their antics off and on the court, we’re almost forced to keep KD on the DFS radar today. Kyrie, Simmons, and Seth Curry are all out tonight. It’s only a 37-minute sample size, but with those three guys off the court this season, Durant has seen a +7.1% usage boost. His current usage rate on the season sits at 33.4% so (quick math), that means he could handle a 40+% USG% tonight. With Simmons having missed the last two games, that has also done wonders for KD’s peripheral stats. He had 16 combined AST+REB on Monday and 15 combined AST+REB on Tuesday -- before those two games, KD had a season-high of just 11 AST+REB in a single game. On top of that, he’s averaging 3.0 BLK+STL/Gm. We can expect Durant to post his best DFS performance of the season tonight.

SF/PF Justise Winslow, POR | DK: $4.3k, FD: $5.2k | @ PHX | Cash & GPP

Winslow may not enter the starting rotation, but with Damian Lillard and Anfernee Simons set to miss this game, there is a ton of leftover usage that will need to be divvied up among the remaining Trailblazer shooters. Winslow has been effective when he’s on the court, averaging 0.89 DKFPPM this season. He’s also been good defensively with 2.4 STL+BLK/Gm despite only averaging 24.4 Min/G. We can probably expect Winslow to play a season-high in minutes this evening. I currently have him projected for 30-32 minutes in this game.

PF/C JaMychal Green, GSW | DK: $3.6k, FD: $3.8k | @ NOP | Cash & GPP

The minutes should be there for JaMychal Green tonight with the Warriors sitting four of their five starters. Among the Warriors’ active players tonight, Green’s 17.6 Min/Gm trail only Jordan Poole and Kevon Looney so, assuming he starts and receives around 30 minutes, he should smash these DFS prices. He’s averaging 0.88 DKFPPM this season, and he has not been a bad value play even when he handles his normal minutes and usage. 6x value or better should be an easily attainable target out of him tonight.

Also Consider:

PF/C Giannis Antetokounmpo, MIL | DK: $12.6k, FD: $12k | @ MIN | Cash & GPP

SF/SG Paul George, LAC | DK: $9.5k, FD: $8.8k | @ SAS | GPP/FD Preferred

PF Zion Williamson, NOP | DK: $8.6k, FD: $8.3k | vs. GSW | GPP Preferred

💫 SF OG Anunoby, TOR | DK: $6k, FD: $6.9k | @ DAL | GPP Preferred

SF/PF Tobias Harris, PHI | DK: $5.8k, FD: $7.4k | vs. NYK | Cash & GPP/DK Preferred

SF/SG Royce O’Neale, BKN | DK: $5.4k, FD: $5.2k | @ WAS | GPP Preferred

💫 SF/PF Jalen McDaniels, CHA | DK: $4.5k, FD: $5.3k | @ MEM | Cash & GPP

Centers to Consider 🏀

PF/C Evan Mobley, CLE | DK: $6.1k, FD: $6k | @ DET | Cash & GPP

Detroit has been a dream match-up for opposing bigs, so we may want to keep Mobley in consideration today. The Pistons rank dead last in defensive efficiency and 23rd in rebounding%, which may be a good sign for Mobley who has seen a decline in his rebounding rate this season. Mobley has boasted a solid floor this season, relative to his current DFS salaries, and we saw on several occasions last year that he does have a 50+ FP type of ceiling. Quite a few of the top centers on the slate are currently questionable to suit up tonight so I’ll side with a guy like Mobley for now until we receive more injury news later in the day.

💫 C Kevon Looney, GSW | DK: $4.2k, FD: $4.4k | @ NOP | Cash & GPP

The minutes should be there for Looney tonight with the rest of the starters sitting out. He matched a season-high in minutes yesterday (29 min) and posted his best DFS performance of the season: 32.25 DKFP/32.9 FDFP. Similar minutes may produce similar results tonight, which means Looney is a strong 6x-8x value candidate on this slate.

Also Consider:

C Joel Embiid, PHI | DK: $10.2k, FD: $10k | vs. NYK | GPP Preferred

💫 C Pascal Siakam, TOR | DK: $9.8k, FD: $10k | @ DAL | GPP Preferred

*PF/C Karl Anthony-Towns, MIN | DK: $8.8k, FD: $9k | vs. MIL | GPP Preferred

C Bam Adebayo, MIA | DK: $7.7k, FD: $8.3k | @ IND | Cash & GPP

C Brook Lopez, MIL | DK: $5.6k, FD: $6.6k | @ MIN | GPP/DK Preferred

💫 C James Wiseman, GSW | DK: $3.5k, FD: $4.4k | @ NOP | GPP Preferred

*If one (or both) of either Gobert or Edwards are out.

NBA Player Props 📊

Player Prop or Bet | Odds | Unit Bet Size

Transparency Report

I’m going to try to update this every Friday with the season-to-date results of the props that I have posted in this section of the NBA newsletters. So far, we’ve been doing pretty well through the first few weeks of this season!

Season-to-Date Record (thru 11/3): 16-9 | Current Profits: +15.35 Units

OG Anunoby OVER 1.5 Steals + Blocks | -184 (Caesars) | 3.0 Units

I usually don’t go after these sorts of odds, but this -184 line still feels too low considering how prolific Anunoby has been in the steals/blocks department. He is averaging an NBA-high 2.9 STL/Gm to go along with 1.0 BLK/Gm. He has hit the over on this prop in all eight games this season so, realistically, I feel like this prop should come in around -200 to -300 odds. So, in theory, we’re getting some nice value here which warrants a higher unit bet size. The Mavs don’t turn the ball over much (12.7 TO/Gm, 5th fewest) but Anunoby is just a straight-up menace and has collected an incredible 14 combined STL+BLK in his last two games alone.

Kevin Durant OVER 14.5 Assists + Rebounds | +102 (Caesars) | 2.0 Units

As mentioned in the DFS section, with Ben Simmons out the last two games, Durant posted 16 combined AST+REB on Monday and 15 combined AST+REB on Tuesday. Now that Kyrie is out (5.1 APG, 5.1 RPG), Durant will see even more opportunities to rack up some peripheral stats. I thought about rolling with the over on Durant’s points prop (o33.5, -120 on FanDuel), but this AST+REB prop also feels like a strong bet while coming in at slight plus-money odds.

PrizePicks Two-Pick Power Play ⚡

Here is a two-pick “Power Play” I’m liking for today's NBA action over on PrizePicks! Nothing is ever a guarantee to hit but I put my own money on these bets so I don't just lightly throw these out there without believing they'll cash! If it hits, it will return 3x the wager.

Kevin Durant MORE than 14.5 Rebounds + Assists

Jordan Poole MORE than 6.5 Assists

🆕 Props Edge+ 🆕

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That will wrap us up with today’s “Daily Dribble” edition! Once again, you can find me on Twitter or in LineStar chat @Ryan_Humphries. Good luck everyone!