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Top NBA DFS Plays & Prop Bets 1/19 | Running Through Thursday's Four-Game Slate
A little four-gamer makes its way onto the Thursday NBA schedule! Let’s dial in on the day’s top DFS plays and props!
Written By: Ryan Humphries on Twitter & LineStar chat @Ryan_Humphries
Straight Locks🔒 | NBA Props w/ Shannon & Tyler!
DFS Main Slate Rundown 📰
Happy Thursday! We’ll get back on the small slate grind with four games on tap tonight! We’ve got some solid match-ups on the board so this should be a fun one. Best of luck!
Today’s Key Injuries:
Warriors: J. Kuminga - OUT, J. Wiseman - OUT, JaM. Green - OUT, A. Iguodala
Celtics: J. Brown - Questionable
Raptors: D. Banton - Questionable
Timberwolves: K. Towns - OUT, R. Gobert - Questionable, A. Rivers - Questionable, J. McLaughlin - OUT
Nets: K. Durant - OUT
Suns: D. Booker - OUT, C. Paul - OUT, C. Payne - OUT, L. Shamet - OUT, J. Okogie - OUT
76ers: None
Trailblazers: J. Nurkic - Probable, G. Payton II - Probable, J. Winslow - OUT
Main Slate Match-Ups w/ Game Totals & Point Spreads
Note: NBA position designations are never going to perfectly align between the major DFS sites. For the purposes of these newsletters, positional designations will default to DraftKings.
💫 = Favorite Play
Point Guards/Shooting Guards to Consider 🏀
PG Damian Lillard, POR | DK: $10k, FD: $10k | vs. PHI | GPP Preferred
The clock has been stuck on Dame Time for a week now. In the last four games, Lillard is averaging 44.5 PPG and he hasn’t exactly drawn the best match-ups in this span -- once vs. CLE, twice vs. DAL -- both top 10 defense versus opposing PGs. The 76ers have ranked 5th in defensive efficiency this season and 2nd against PGs over their last 20 games. However, when Dame is this locked in, we keep him squarely on the radar, especially when he’s at home where he has been a more efficient scorer this season.
💫SG/SF Gary Trent Jr., TOR | DK: $6.6k, FD: $7k | @ MIN | Cash & GPP
Outside of a down game against the Hawks last Saturday, Trent has been a reliable DFS source for a hot minute and he’s been pushing for 40+ minutes on the regular. The Raptors (27th in pace) find themselves in a major pace-up spot against the T-Wolves (8th in pace) who are also on the second leg of a back-to-back. Toronto ranks second on the slate with a 118.5 implied point total tonight and, when they’ve put up a comparable score, Trent has come through with a strong fantasy score essentially every game over the last three weeks. He’s also a solid source of steals/blocks, having averaged 3.0 STL+BLK/gm over his last five starts.
PG Saben Lee, PHX | DK: $3.2k, FD: $4k | vs. BKN | DK Preferred
The Suns remain very thin in the backcourt with Booker, Paul, Payne, and Shamet all ruled out this evening. Saben Lee has come on as of late with a viable role off of the bench across the last three games. Lee logged 28 minutes in the Suns’ most recent game against Memphis, though the 30-point blowout loss played a key factor in the increased minutes. However you slice it, Lee should handle around 15-20 minutes tonight and he’s averaged 0.93 FPPM on the season. It’s not a huge upside play, but for $3,200 on DraftKings, there could be some nice value to be had with rolling Lee out in lineups.
Other Guards to Consider:
PG James Harden, PHI | DK: $9.8k, FD: $10.3k | @ POR | Cash & GPP
PG Fred VanVleet, TOR | DK: $8.1k, FD: $7.9k | @ MIN | GPP Preferred
PG/SG Tyrese Maxey, PHI | DK: $6.2k, FD: $6.5k | @ POR | GPP Preferred
💫PG/SG Derrick White, BOS | DK: $5.1k, FD: $5.8k | vs. GSW | DK Preferred
💫SG/SF Damion Lee, PHX | DK: $4.6k, FD: $4.8k | vs. BKN | Cash & GPP
Small Forwards/Power Forwards to Consider 🏀
💫SF/PF Scottie Barnes, TOR | DK: $7.6k, FD: $8.2k | @ MIN | Cash & GPP
Barnes is going to be a tough guy to ignore on this small slate. He’s been an excellent play out of this upper mid-range lately, having posted five games of at least 45.75 DKFP within his last six. He’s a beneficiary of the “Nick Nurse school of giving big minutes to his starters” and will routinely log 35-40 minutes. Given the significant pace-up spot against a middling T-Wolves defense, we can lock in Barnes as a DFS target in all formats tonight.
Here is a spotlight on Ben Simmons from my friend Dan (he really wanted to contribute to my article today.)
💫PF/C Ben Simmons, BKN | DK: $7.1k, FD: $7.4k | @ PHX | Cash & GPP
“But first our friends from Pearl Jam…
Bill Simmons’ adopted son has quietly helped the Nets to the current No. 4 seed in the East. Ben has led this team in assists and seems to be gaining confidence as this team keeps putting up wins, and in our case, value stats. Coming off of a triple-double and the Suns without their full cast of starters, expect Simmons to exceed his low price. Bridges can't guard everyone.
As Eddie Vedder once sang, "I know someday you'll have a beautiful life. I know you'll be a sun in somebody else's sky. But why can't it be mine?" Consider it yours tonight Ben. Safely assume a block and a steal are going to be there too. And now a message from our friends at Simply Safe.”
I hope you guys enjoyed that.
💫SF/PF Kyle Anderson, MIN | DK: $5.6k, FD: $6.5k | vs. TOR | Cash & GPP
What has gotten into Kyle Anderson in the last couple of games? He has put up back-to-back 50+ FP performances that included a 13/11/10 triple-double. He has upped his production to 1.08 FPPM over the last five games and if we can count on him to play mid-30s minutes, then we’ll want to keep Anderson firmly in the player pool tonight. I will say that it does feel a tad point chase-y in a not-so-great match-up, but he’s still priced at a point where we don’t exactly need another 50 burger out of him tonight.
Other Forwards to Consider:
SF/PF Jayson Tatum, BOS | DK: $10.8k, FD: $11k | vs. GSW | GPP Preferred
💫SF Mikal Bridges, PHX | DK: $6.8k, FD: $7.1k | vs. BKN | GPP Preferred
💫PF/C Naz Reid, MIN | DK: $4.6k, FD: $5k | vs. TOR | Cash & GPP (If Gobert is out)
SF/PF Taurean Prince, MIN | DK: $3.6k, FD: $4.7k | vs. TOR | DK Preferred
PF Chris Boucher, TOR | DK: $3.3k, FD: $4.2k | @ MIN | DK Preferred
Centers to Consider 🏀
💫C Joel Embiid, PHI | DK: $11k, FD: $11.5k | @ POR | Cash & GPP
On these small slates, sometimes ya gotta just lock in on the player with the highest ceiling. Embiid fills that role today. He has owned a massive 39.14% USG% over his last five starts while putting up 1.72 FPPM. Portland has given up the 11th most FPPG to centers over their last 20 games and the 9th most points in the paint on the season. It’s been a while since Embiid has posted a ceiling game but we can safely assume a 60+ FP game out of him tonight.
💫C Precious Achiuwa, TOR | DK: $3.7k, FD: $4.5k | @ MIN | DK Preferred
There’s not much meat on the bone on FanDuel where Achiuwa owns a $4,500 salary. However, for $3,700, he makes a ton of sense as a value punt play. Achiuwa is averaging 21.1 Min/Gm and 20.45 FPPG over his last five. He’s one of the few Raptors players receiving decent minutes off of the bench and the Minnesota second unit ranks inside the bottom third in the league defensively.
Other Centers to Consider:
C Jusuf Nurkic, POR | DK: $7.3k, FD: $7.8k | vs. PHI | GPP Preferred
C Nicolas Claxton, BKN | DK: $7.4k, FD: $7.5k | @ PHX | GPP Preferred
💫C Robert Williams, BOS | DK: $5.5k, FD: $5.9k | vs. GSW | Cash & GPP
NBA Player Props 📊
Player Prop or Bet | Odds | Unit Bet Size
Scottie Barnes OVER 0.5 Blocks | -135 (Caesars) | 2.0 Units
Gary Trent Jr. OVER 2.5 Three-Pointers Made | -130 (DraftKings) | 2.0 Units
PrizePicks Power Play ⚡
Here is a two-pick “Power Play” I’m liking for today's NBA action over on PrizePicks! Nothing is ever a guarantee to hit but I put my own money on these bets so I don't just lightly throw these out there without believing they'll cash! If it hits, it will return 3x the wager.
Gary Trent Jr. MORE than 28.5 Fantasy Score
Draymond Green MORE than 12.5 REBS + ASTS
🆕 Props Edge+ 🆕
In LineStar’s ongoing mission to improve, innovate, and help you reel in some cash, we are introducing Props Edge+ for NBA – available for LineStar Premium users! This tool can help you find value and mispriced odds on player props from sportsbooks and, more specifically, for PrizePicks and UnderDog Fantasy!
Speaking of props, put the Props Edge+ tool to use by signing up for PrizePicks (Promo code: BETFULLY) or Underdog (Promo code: LINESTAR). You'll receive a 100% match on first deposits up to $100 PLUS a free two-month subscription to LineStar Premium. Many people may not realize that you can legally place prop bets in most states using UnderDog (or PrizePicks) – it’s called Pick'Em, and it’s incredibly easy.
That will wrap us up with today’s “Daily Dribble” edition! Once again, you can find me on Twitter or in LineStar chat @Ryan_Humphries. Good luck everyone!