- LineStar® Daily Dribble
- Posts
- Top NBA DFS Plays & Prop Bets 1/2 | Taking On the First Massive NBA Slate of 2023!
Top NBA DFS Plays & Prop Bets 1/2 | Taking On the First Massive NBA Slate of 2023!
Ten games are loaded up on the NBA docket this Monday evening so let’s dive into some top DFS plays and props!
Written By: Ryan Humphries on Twitter & LineStar chat @Ryan_Humphries
DFS Main Slate Rundown 📰
New year, new month, new week, new money! It’s a busy day in the NBA with 10 games slated to tip-off. Expect some high scores tonight with six of these games carrying a total of at least 232.5! It’s sure to be a wild one so let’s begin the New Year right by crushing this slate!
Today’s Key Injuries:
Lakers: A. Davis - OUT, L. James - Probable, L. Walker IV - OUT
Hornets: K. Oubre Jr. - OUT, D. Smith Jr. - Questionable
Bulls: A. Caruso - Probable, Jav. Green - Questionable, D. Jones Jr. - Probable
Cavaliers: D. Garland - Doubtful, E. Mobley - Questionable, D. Wade - OUT
Raptors: F. VanVleet - Questionable, P. Achiuwa - Questionable, O. Porter Jr. - OUT
Pelicans: B. Ingram - OUT, L. Nance Jr. - OUT
76ers: J. Embiid - Questionable
Spurs: K. Bates-Diop - OUT
Nets: J. Harris - Probable
Nuggets: J. Murray - Questionable, Jeff Green - OUT
Timberwolves: K. Towns - OUT, J. McLaughlin - OUT, T. Prince - OUT
Mavericks: D. Finney-Smith - OUT, M. Kleber - OUT, Josh Green - OUT
Rockets: A. Sengun - Questionable, J. Tate - OUT
Hawks: C. Capela - OUT, D. Hunter - Questionable
Warriors: S. Curry - OUT, A. Wiggins - OUT, J. Kuminga - OUT, J. Wiseman - OUT, JaM. Green - OUT
Pistons: K. Hayes - OUT, I. Livers - OUT
Trailblazers: J. Nurkic - Questionable, K. Johnson - Questionable, J. Winslow - OUT, N. Little - OUT
Heat: J. Butler - Probable, C. Martin - Questionable, G. Vincent - Questionable, D. Robinson - Questionable, D. Dedmon - Questionable
Clippers: K. Leonard - Questionable, N. Batum - Questionable
Main Slate Match-Ups w/ Game Totals & Point Spreads
Note: NBA position designations are never going to perfectly align between the major DFS sites. For the purposes of these newsletters, positional designations will default to DraftKings.
💫 = Favorite Play
Point Guards/Shooting Guards to Consider 🏀
💫PG Luka Doncic, DAL | DK: $12.4k, FD: $12.4k | @ HOU | Cash & GPP
I never like calling anyone a “lock,” especially when they’re a $12,400 player. An injury, a bad shooting night, or foul trouble can always come into play and derail any player on any given night. With that said, if you haven’t been playing Luka lately, then you’ve been looking up in the standings at the lineups that did. He’s dropped an absurd 81.0+ DKFP in four of his last five games and has posted 80+ DKFP in both games against the Rockets this season. Houston’s poor defensive efficiency (rank 28th) continues to make them one of the better match-ups to target and Luka is just playing on another level from everyone else right now, averaging 2.09 FPPM over his last five games.
SG Klay Thompson, GSW | DK: $7.1k, FD: $7.6k | vs. ATL | Cash & GPP
The Warriors will continue to be without several key contributors with Steph Curry, Andrew Wiggins, Jonathan Kuminga, James Wiseman, and JaMychal Green all ruled out for tonight. When those five players have been off the court, Klay Thompson has seen a +17.3 per-48-minute fantasy point increase along with a moderate usage boost. After struggling to begin the season, Thompson has hit a groove recently, scoring at least 42.5 DKFP in three consecutive games while playing at least 37 minutes. He’s performing better at home this season (+13.1% more FPPG) and this game features the second-highest combined pace on the slate (207.7) along with a huge 237 O/U with the Warriors (-1.5) being slight favorites.
💫SG/SF Caris LeVert, CLE | DK: $4.8k, FD: $6.2k | vs. CHI | Cash & GPP/DK Preferred
LeVert is still playable at $6,200 on FanDuel, but he stands out as one of the better values on the slate over on DraftKings at $4,800. Darius Garland (thumb) is doubtful to play which means LeVert is due for another start. LeVert stepped into the starting rotation for Garland on New Year’s Eve against Chicago and ended up playing 37 minutes while posting 23 points, seven rebounds, four assists, and a steal (39.25 DKFP). LeVert and the Cavs draw the same match-up with the Bulls tonight, who rank in the bottom half of the league in defensive efficiency and inside the top half in pace.
Other Guards to Consider:
💫PG LaMelo Ball, CHA | DK: $10k, FD: $9.7k | vs. LAL | Cash & GPP
PG/SG Donovan Mitchell, CLE | DK: $9k, FD: $8.9k | vs. CHI | GPP Preferred
SG/SF Donte DiVincenzo, GSW | DK: $5.9k, FD: $6.4k | vs. ATL | GPP Preferred
💫SG/SF Gary Trent Jr., TOR | DK: $5.3k, FD: $7k | @ IND | DK Preferred (Bump if VanVleet is out)
PG/SG Alec Burks, DET | DK: $4.7k, FD: $5.7k | @ POR | DK Preferred
PG/SG Patrick Beverly, LAL | DK: $4.1k, FD: $5k | @ CHA | DK Preferred
SG/SF Hamidou Diallo, DET | DK: $3.2k, FD: $4.6k | @ POR | GPP/DK Preferred
Small Forwards/Power Forwards to Consider 🏀
💫SF/PF LeBron James, LAL | DK: $10.3k, FD: $10.8k | @ CHA | Cash & GPP
Someone tell LeBron it’s his birthday again. His 38th birthday was last Friday and he proceeded to drop a casual 47 points while flirting with a triple-double (10 rebounds, nine assists). He has increased his usage to 37.2% over the last five games, which is up noticeably from his 32.6% USG% on the season. He’ll draw a stellar match-up against a Hornets team that routinely gets picked apart by opposing frontcourts. This game also has the highest combined pace on the slate (208.7) along with the highest total (242.5 O/U) and a minuscule spread (LAL +1). And if Hornets’ owner Michael Jordan is in attendance, I would not put it past LeBron to have some extra motivation to put on another monster performance tonight.
SF/SG Josh Hart, POR | DK: $6.2k, FD: $6.3k | vs. DET | Cash & GPP
Hart has been on a nice little run as of late, averaging 37.6 DKFP and 38.7 Min/Gm over his last three games. Forward Justise Winslow (ankle/out) has also missed those three games which may be the key reason behind Hart’s increased playing time recently. Hart is not a high-usage player but he is a great rebounder and a double-double threat when he gets the sort of minutes he’s been getting lately. The Trailblazers own a 121.0 implied total and face a bad Pistons team that ranks 29th in defensive efficiency. Hart makes for a worthy option out of the mid-range.
💫PF Draymond Green, GSW | DK: $6k, FD: $6.2k | vs. ATL | GPP Preferred
Draymond is going to have to pick up some extra slack with all of the Warriors’ injuries as well. Whether it's by increasing his low offensive usage, crashing the boards, or being a facilitator, he should find some way to be a key contributor tonight. Golden State has had three days off since their last game and Draymond averaged +22% more FPPG when well-rested.
Other Forwards to Consider:
PF Jimmy Butler, MIA | DK: $9.4k, FD: $9.4k | @ LAC | GPP Preferred
💫PF/C Christian Wood, DAL | DK: $8k, FD: $8.3k | @ HOU | Cash & GPP
PF/C Kevin Love, CLE | DK: $4.7k, FD: $5.5k | vs. CHI | Cash & GPP (If E. Mobley is out again and Love starts)
SF/PF TJ Warren, BKN | DK: $4.3k, FD: $4.6k | vs. SAS | GPP Preferred
PF Jalen Johnson, ATL | DK: $3.5k, FD: $5.1k | @ GSW | GPP/DK Preferred
SF/SG Isaac Okoro, CLE | DK: $3.2k, FD: $4.2k | vs. CHI | GPP Preferred
Centers to Consider 🏀
PF/C Pascal Siakam, TOR | DK: $10.2k, FD: $10.5k | @ IND | GPP Preferred
Long gone are the days when we could get Siakam for a discounted four-figure DFS price tag but he’s typically been worth his $10k+ salaries lately. Before a bit of a dud against Phoenix on Friday, Siakam had scored between 50.5 DKFP and 76.25 DKFP in his five previous games. He receives a strong match-up against a Pacers team that ranks 25th against centers and, if Fred VanVleet (back/questionable) is ruled out again, Siakam owns the largest usage bump on the team when FVV is off the court.
💫C Thomas Bryant, LAL | DK: $5.9k, FD: $6k | @ CHA | Cash & GPP
Bryant has been a bit inconsistent but he draws the Hornets match-up today, which is always enticing for opposing centers. The Hornets rank 29th versus centers and Thomas is coming off of his best fantasy performance of the season where he secured a 19-point, 17-rebound double-double, and 46.75 DKFP. His two recent “down” games came against Miami and Dallas -- two teams that rate out much better defensively and play at a much slower pace than Charlotte.
Other Centers to Consider:
C Nikola Jokic, DEN | DK: $11.7k, FD: $11.6k | @ MIN | GPP Preferred
💫C Nicolas Claxton, BKN | DK: $6.3k, FD: $7k | vs. SAS | Cash & GPP
💫C Mason Plumlee, CHA | DK: $5.9k, FD: $6.4k | vs. LAL | Cash & GPP
C Kevon Looney, GSW | DK: $4.6k, FD: $5.2k | vs. ATL | GPP Preferred
C Paul Reed, PHI | DK: $3k, FD: $4.1k | vs. NOP | Cash & GPP (If Embiid is out)
NBA Player Props 📊
Player Prop or Bet | Odds | Unit Bet Size
Nicolas Claxton OVER 2.5 Steals + Blocks | -130 (DraftKings) | 2.0 Units
CJ McCollum OVER 2.5 Turnovers | -110 (DraftKings) | 2.0 Units
PrizePicks Power Play ⚡
Here is a two-pick “Power Play” I’m liking for today's NBA action over on PrizePicks! Nothing is ever a guarantee to hit but I put my own money on these bets so I don't just lightly throw these out there without believing they'll cash! If it hits, it will return 3x the wager.
Nicolas Claxton MORE than 2.5 Blocks + Steals
CJ McCollum MORE than 2.5 Turnovers
🆕 Props Edge+ 🆕
In LineStar’s ongoing mission to improve, innovate, and help you reel in some cash, we are introducing Props Edge+ for NBA – available for LineStar Premium users! This tool can help you find value and mispriced odds on player props from sportsbooks and, more specifically, for PrizePicks and UnderDog Fantasy!
Speaking of props, put the Props Edge+ tool to use by signing up for PrizePicks (Promo code: BETFULLY) or Underdog (Promo code: LINESTAR). You'll receive a 100% match on first deposits up to $100 PLUS a free two-month subscription to LineStar Premium. Many people may not realize that you can legally place prop bets in most states using UnderDog (or PrizePicks) – it’s called Pick'Em, and it’s incredibly easy.
That will wrap us up with today’s “Daily Dribble” edition! Once again, you can find me on Twitter or in LineStar chat @Ryan_Humphries. Good luck everyone!