• LineStar® Daily Dribble
  • Posts
  • Top NBA DFS Plays & Prop Bets 1/20 | Exploiting Match-Ups and Targeting Upside on Tonight's Nine-Game Slate!

Top NBA DFS Plays & Prop Bets 1/20 | Exploiting Match-Ups and Targeting Upside on Tonight's Nine-Game Slate!

We’re back at it with another big Friday slate! Nine games are on the menu so let’s go hunting for some top DFS plays and props to hone in on this evening!

Written By: Ryan Humphries on Twitter & LineStar chat @Ryan_Humphries

Straight Locks🔒 | NBA Props w/ Shannon & Tyler!

DFS Main Slate Rundown 📰

A sizable Friday slate rolls around with a nine-gamer on tap. It’s sure to be a doozy featuring no shortage of ways to attack these games so let’s dive right on in. Best of luck!

Today’s Key Injuries:

Pelicans: Z. Williamson - OUT, B. Ingram - OUT, N. Marshall - Questionable, H. Jones - Questionable

Magic: F. Wagner - Questionable, C. Okeke - OUT

Warriors: S. Curry - OUT, K. Thompson - OUT, D. Green - OUT, A. Wiggins - OUT, J. Kuminga - Probable, J. Wiseman - Questionable, A. Iguodala - OUT, JaM. Green - Probable

Cavaliers: D. Mitchell - Questionable, R. Rubio - OUT

Heat: D. Robinson - OUT, N. Jovic - OUT

Mavericks: C. Wood - OUT, T. Hardaway Jr. - Probable, M. Kleber - OUT

Knicks: M. Robinson - OUT

Hawks: T. Young - Probable, B. Bogdanovic - Questionable

Clippers J. Wall - OUT, L. Kennard - OUT

Spurs: D. Vassell - OUT

Pacers: T. Haliburton - OUT

Nuggets: J. Murray - Probable

Nets: K. Durant - OUT

Jazz: K. Olynyk - OUT

Grizzlies: Z. Williams - Questionable

Lakers: L. James - Questionable, A. Davis - OUT, L. Walker IV - OUT, A. Reaves - OUT

Thunder: A. Pokusevski - OUT, J. Robinson-Earl - OUT, O. Dieng - OUT

Kings: D. Sabonis - Questionable

Main Slate Match-Ups w/ Game Totals & Point Spreads

Note: NBA position designations are never going to perfectly align between the major DFS sites. For the purposes of these newsletters, positional designations will default to DraftKings.

💫 = Favorite Play

Point Guards/Shooting Guards to Consider 🏀

💫PG Ja Morant, MEM | DK: $9.6k, FD: $10k | @ LAL | Cash & GPP

Morant sets up well if you’re spending up on a guard today. He hasn’t put up a massive single-game performance in a hot minute but tonight is about as good of a spot as any for him to come through with a massive stat line. The Lakers continue to play at one of the fastest tempos in the league, ranking 2nd in overall pace. They have also checked in at 24th in defensive efficiency over their last five games and 29th versus opposing point guards over their last 20 games. This match-up features a slate-high 243 O/U with the Grizzlies checking in at second on the slate with a 125.0 implied team total.

💫PG/SG Josh Giddey, OKC | DK: $7.7k, FD: $8k | @ SAC | Cash & GPP

Giddey’s DFS salaries continue to climb but not fast enough to match his recent production. Over his previous five games, he is flirting with triple-double averages -- 21.4 PPG, 8.8 RPG, 8.8 APG -- while averaging 1.44 FPPM. The Kings are always a great team to target given their top-10 pace and bottom-10 defensive efficiency rating. Giddey is locked in as a strong floor/high-ceiling option on tonight’s slate.

PG/SF Donte DiVincenzo, GSW | DK: $5.1k, FD: $5.1k | @ CLE | Cash & GPP

In the midst of writing this NBA newsletter, 4/5ths of the Warriors' starting lineup (Curry, Klay, Draymond, Wiggins) was ruled out tonight as they land on the second leg of a road back-to-back. Golden State draws an ugly match-up against a Cavs team that plays at one of the slowest paces in the league and boasts one of the best defenses, but that won’t stop us from considering a guy like DiVincenzo, who should take on a primary starting role tonight. DiVincenzo has earned several starts this season in place of injured Warriors, and he routinely returned 6x value or beyond, relative to his $5,100 DFS salary on both sites. Jordan Poole will, in all likelihood, take over as the Warriors’ top-scoring option, but DiVincenzo should still put up double-digit shot attempts while gathering some solid peripheral stats and playing big minutes.

Other Guards to Consider:

💫PG De’Aaron Fox, SAC | DK: $8.2k, FD: $8.3k | vs. OKC | Cash & GPP (Boost if Sabonis is out)

PG Darius Garland, CLE | DK: $8.1k, FD: $8.5k | vs. GSW | GPP Preferred (Cash play if D. Mitchell is out)

PG/SG Jordan Poole, GSW | DK: $7.9k, FD: $7.6k | @ CLE | GPP Preferred

PG/SG Dejounte Murray, ATL | DK: $7.8k, FD: $8.6k | vs. NYK | GPP Preferred (Cash play if T. Young is out)

💫SG Desmond Bane, MEM | DK: $7k, FD: $7.9k | @ LAL | DK Preferred

PG TJ McConnell, IND | DK: $5.8k, FD: $6.9k | @ DEN | DK Preferred

PG/SG Josh Richardson, SAS | DK: $4.5k, FD: $5.8k | DK Preferred

SG/SF Dyson Daniels, NOP | DK: $3.7k, FD: $4k | @ ORL | GPP Preferred (Monitor H. Jones/N. Marshall news)

Small Forwards/Power Forwards to Consider 🏀

💫PF Julius Randle, NYK | DK: $9.8k, FD: $9.9k | @ ATL | Cash & GPP

Sound the alarm. Julius Randle is back in the $9k salary range on both DraftKings and Fanduel. His torrid run from late December/early January has come to an end, largely due to RJ Barrett’s return from a six-game absence and partially due to Jalen Brunson having some big games recently. Even if we can no longer lock Randle into 55-65 fantasy points on a nightly basis, he can still show up a deliver a massive performance. Randle is guaranteed nearly 40 minutes per game, barring any sort of massive blowout, and he’s been putting up plenty of points (27.0 PPG L20Gms) while bringing down a ton of rebounds (13.3 RPG L20Gms). He has also seen a slight usage boost and fantasy point production increase when Mitchell Robinson (thumb/out) has been off the court this season -- this will be Robinson’s first missed game with his new injury. Randle went off for 34 points, 17 rebounds, and five assists (69.25 DKFP) the last time he went up against the Hawks. While we can’t come to expect a crazy game like that from him tonight, that is the sort of upside he brings to the table.

💫SF/PG Jalen Williams, OKC | DK: $5.2k, FD: $6.2k | @ SAC | Cash & GPP

Williams owns SF eligibility on both DraftKings and FanDuel and he profiles as a mid-range target worth considering on this slate. As noted with Giddey in the guard section, targeting players against the Kings work out more often than not due to Sacramento’s fast pace and porous defensive play. Williams is steadily handling 32-35 minutes per game these days and he has upped his production to 0.93 FPPM over his last five games. He’ll make more sense on DraftKings at $5,200 but he has scored at least 35 FDFP in four of his past nine games so there is some solid upside to be had at his price tag on FanDuel as well.

PF Patrick Baldwin Jr., GSW | DK: $3k, FD: $3.5k | @ CLE | GPP Preferred

This is no doubt a risky play but we’ll be going for an “aim small, miss small” approach with Patrick Baldwin Jr. who checks in at the stone minimum on both sites. The Warriors will be without several key starters tonight and their frontcourt depth will be stretched thin with Draymond Green, Andrew Wiggins, and Andre Iguodala all ruled out. Jonathan Kuminga is listed as probable tonight but he has not played since December 30th so the Warrior may be hesitant to give him big minutes in his first game back. So we’ll throw a dart at the Warriors’ 2022 first-round pick, Patrick Baldwin Jr. AKA PBJ. PBJ has played sparingly this season but when he’s on the court, he has shown that he can rack up the fantasy points in a hurry, averaging 1.08 FPPM in 14 games played. Barring a surprise, Baldwin won’t land in the starting lineup but if he can push for 20+ minutes in this game, he should be able to coast comfortably to value.

Other Forwards to Consider:

PF/SF LeBron James, LAL | DK: $11.3k, FD: $11.4k | vs. MEM | GPP Preferred (Note: LeBron is currently questionable)

💫PF/C Jaren Jackson Jr., MEM | DK: $7.3k, FD: $8.2k | @ LAL | DK Preferred

PF/C Evan Mobley, CLE | DK: $6.4k, FD: $7k | vs. GSW | GPP Preferred

SF/PF Harrison Barnes, SAC | DK: $5.9k, FD: $6.4k | vs. OKC | Cash & GPP

SF Luguentz Dort, OKC | DK: $5k, FD: $5.7k | @ SAC | GPP Preferred

SF/PF Dorian Finney-Smith, DAL | DK: $3.8k, FD: $4.8k | vs. MIA | GPP Preferred

Centers to Consider 🏀

💫C Steven Adams, MEM | DK: $5.8k, FD: $6.7k | @ LAL | Cash & GPP

The Lakers are giving the Hornets a run for their money when it comes to locking in opposing centers. Let’s look at a rundown on DKFP totals scored by the last 10 centers the Lakers have faced: 31.75 (R. Holmes), 70.25 (A. Sengun), 60.75 (J. Embiid), 64.5 (C. Wood), 58.75 (N. Jokic), 52.0 (D. Sabonis), 27.75 (O. Okongwu), 61.25 (B. Adebayo), 47.0 (M. Plumlee), and 36.0 (O. Okongwu). Given, they have been facing some of the best centers in the NBA lately, but for fantasy purposes I would place Steven Adams on the same level or perhaps only a hair below guys like Sengun, Wood, and Plumlee. Adams is not the most consistent DFS asset but he is fully capable of dropping huge fantasy scores. He has four 40.0+ DKFP games within his last nine starts and he doesn’t need to play massive minutes to provide significant value.

C Isaiah Hartenstein, NYK | DK: $3k, FD: $4k | @ ATL | Cash & GPP (If he starts)

PF/C Jericho Sims, NYK | DK: $3k, FD: $3.6k | @ ATL | Cash & GPP (If he starts)

We’ll lump these two low-priced center options together and more favorably side with whoever lands in the starting lineup. Mitchell Robinson (thumb/out) will miss extended action for the second time this season, so Hartenstein and Sims are both set to see some added run at the five. When Robinson missed eight consecutive games between 11/5-11/18 earlier this season, Hartenstein received the starting nod in six of those games while Sims started two. When given the minutes, either one of these guys will have a great chance to return value on their minimum/near-minimum DFS salaries.

Other Centers to Consider:

💫C Nikola Jokic, DEN | DK: $11.6k, FD: $11.7k | vs. IND | Cash & GPP (Note: Jokic is currently questionable)

C Bam Adebayo, MIA | DK: $8.4k, FD: $8.8k | @ DAL | GPP Preferred

C Nicolas Claxton, BKN | DK: $7.4k, FD: $7.7k | @ UTA | GPP Preferred

C Jonas Valanciunas, NOP | DK: $6.8k, FD: $7.7k | @ ORL | DK Preferred

💫C Walker Kessler, UTA | DK: $5.7k, FD: $7.9k | vs. BKN | DK Preferred

C Clint Capela, ATL | DK: $5.4k, FD: $6.2k | vs. NYK | GPP Preferred

NBA Player Props 📊

Player Prop or Bet | Odds | Unit Bet Size

Jalen Williams OVER 1.5 Steals + Blocks | -130 (Caesars) | 2.0 Units

Julius Randle OVER 13.5 Rebounds | +110 (DraftKings) | 2.0 Units

PrizePicks Power Play ⚡

Here is a two-pick “Power Play” I’m liking for today's NBA action over on PrizePicks! Nothing is ever a guarantee to hit but I put my own money on these bets so I don't just lightly throw these out there without believing they'll cash! If it hits, it will return 3x the wager.

Jalen Williams MORE than 1.5 BLKS + STLS

Jaren Jackson Jr. MORE than 3.5 BLKS + STLS

Don't forget to take advantage of this Luka Doncic "free square" promo on PrizePicks today!

🆕 Props Edge+ 🆕

In LineStar’s ongoing mission to improve, innovate, and help you reel in some cash, we are introducing Props Edge+ for NBA – available for LineStar Premium users! This tool can help you find value and mispriced odds on player props from sportsbooks and, more specifically, for PrizePicks and UnderDog Fantasy!

Speaking of props, put the Props Edge+ tool to use by signing up for PrizePicks (Promo code: BETFULLY) or Underdog (Promo code: LINESTAR). You'll receive a 100% match on first deposits up to $100 PLUS a free two-month subscription to LineStar Premium. Many people may not realize that you can legally place prop bets in most states using UnderDog (or PrizePicks) – it’s called Pick'Em, and it’s incredibly easy.

That will wrap us up with today’s “Daily Dribble” edition! Once again, you can find me on Twitter or in LineStar chat @Ryan_Humphries. Good luck everyone!