Written By: Ryan Humphries on Twitter & LineStar chat @Ryan_Humphries

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NBA DFS & Props Shows w/ Shannon & Tyler!

DFS Main Slate Rundown 📰

Who doesn’t love a Friday six-pack? That’s what we have on tap for our NBA action today with a half-dozen games set to send us into the weekend! We’ve got a few big injuries on this slate -- Luka Doncic will be missing his first game of the season as will rookie sensation Victor Wembanyama. D-Book is also out for the Suns for the first time in a couple of weeks. The Joel Embiid “questionable” tag will need to be monitored as well. Embiid traveled with the team to Boston but is dealing with an illness and was not present at the team’s morning shootaround. We’ll also want to track the Nuggets news (which may not break until after some games have started) with Jamal Murray and Aaron Gordon (both questionable). There are a few other “questionable” designations to keep an eye on but those six players listed and their absences (or potential absences) will have the largest impact on this small slate. Let’s kick off the month of December with a bang! Best of luck!

Today’s Key Injuries

Wizards: D. Wright - OUT

Magic: W. Carter Jr. - OUT, M. Fultz - OUT

76ers: J. Embiid - Questionable, K. Oubre Jr. - OUT, N. Batum - Probable, J. Springer - Probable, D. House Jr. - OUT

Celtics: K. Porzingis - OUT

Knicks: None

Raptors: None

Grizzlies: M. Smart - OUT, X. Tillman - Questionable, L. Kennard - OUT

Mavericks: L. Doncic - OUT, T. Hardaway Jr. - Questionable, D. Exum - OUT, M. Kleber - OUT

Spurs: V. Wembanyama - OUT, K. Johnson - Probable, D. McDermott - OUT

Pelicans: T. Murphy III - Questionable (would be season debut), J. Alvarado - Questionable, M. Ryan - Doubtful, L. Nance Jr. - OUT

Nuggets: J. Murray - Questionable, A. Gordon - Questionable, P. Watson - Probable

Suns: D. Booker - OUT, B. Beal - OUT

Main Slate Match-Ups w/ Game Totals & Point Spreads

Top DraftKings & FanDuel DFS Plays

Note: NBA position designations are never going to perfectly align between the major DFS sites. For the purposes of these newsletters, positional designations will default to DraftKings.

Point Guards/Shooting Guards to Consider 🏀

PG/SG Cole Anthony, ORL | DK: $7k, FD: $6.9k | vs. WAS

The Magic players receive what I’m just going to refer to as the “Wizards bump” for the second game in a row. As we all know by now, Washington plays awful defense (28th in DEFRTG) and they operate at a very uptempo pace (2nd in pace). While that makes for some terrible basketball to watch, it provides an excellent DFS atmosphere (for the opposing team). The Magic dropped 139 points in regulation on the Wizards two days ago and Cole Anthony had himself another excellent showing, posting a 25/6/5 line with a pair of blocks and DFS scores of 45.0 DKFP/44.7 FDFP in just 26 minutes. Since Anthony plays off of the bench, his minutes are typically capped in the low 30s. That said, he leads ALL guard-eligible players on this slate with a 1.38 FPPM average over his last five games. Whether or not he can sustain that sort of elite per-minute production can be debated, but it’s hard to imagine any significant regression happening in this stellar match-up. Anthony has also been notably better at home this season where he’s shooting 48.2% from the field (vs. 38.6% FG% on the road) and is averaging +15.6% more FPPG.

PG Derrick Rose, MEM | DK: $4.9k, FD: $4.8k | @ DAL

With Marcus Smart’s (and, of course, Ja Morant’s) continued absence, the Grizzlies shook up their rotation and inserted Derrick Rose into the starting lineup on Wednesday. It resulted in a win, just their fourth of the season, so I would imagine they’ll stick to a similar starting lineup today. Now, they’re not going to want to run the oft-injured Derrick Rose into the ground, and he played only 27 minutes in the previous game. However, Rose is a strong FPPM scorer and the 27 minutes was a nice step up from the usual 18-22 minutes that he’ll typically see when playing off of the bench. Rose fell one assist short of a points/assists double-double on Wednesday, finishing with 14 points, nine assists, and four rebounds. The Mavs (9th in pace) also offer a nice pace-up match-up for the Grizzlies (19th in pace), though, it’ll be anyone’s guess as to how Dallas will operate with floor general Luka Doncic sitting out for the first time this season. Nonetheless, Rose is under $5k on both sites and makes plenty of sense as an affordable point guard option today. However, if the Grizzlies, for whatever reason, relegate him back to a bench role, the DFS interest in Rose will take a steep nosedive.

PG/SG Jaden Hardy, DAL | DK: $3.3k, FD: $3.7k | vs. MEM

The obvious big spend-up at guard today with Luka Doncic sitting out will be Kyrie Irving (DK: $9.1k, FD: $8.3k). I have no issues with eating some Irving chalk, especially at his $8,300 salary on FanDuel. While I’m not confident he’ll start in Luka’s place, Jaden Hardy should, at the very least, handle increased minutes and usage off of the Mavs bench. In 56 minutes played with Luka off the court this season, Hardy has seen a sizable +8.91% usage bump, which ranks second on the team, and he’s averaging +11.43 fantasy points per 48 minutes as well. It should also be noted that backup point guard Dante Exum (personal) is also out tonight. It’s just a 28-minute sample size, but Hardy’s usage has jumped +12.34% with both Luka and Exum off the floor this season. Hardy becomes an even stronger value play if Tim Hardaway Jr. (back/questionable) sits as well.

Other Guards to Consider

PG Tyrese Maxey, PHI | DK: $9.4k, FD: $9.2k | @ BOS (Preferred if Embiid is out)

PG/SG Kyrie Irving, DAL | DK: $9.1k, FD: $8.3k | vs. MEM

SG/SF Desmond Bane, MEM | DK: $8.7k, FD: $8.4k | @ DAL

SG Brandon Ingram, NOP | DK: $8.3k, FD: $7.9k | vs. SAS

PG CJ McCollum, NOP | DK: $7.9k, FD: $8.1k | vs. SAS

SG Devin Vassell, SAS | DK: $6.5k, FD: $6.5k | @ NOP

PG/SG Jalen Suggs, ORL | DK: $6.2k, FD: $5.9k | vs. WAS

PG/SG Eric Gordon, PHX | DK: $5.9k, FD: $5.3k | vs. DEN

PG/SG Gary Trent Jr., TOR | DK: $4.5k, FD: $4.5k | vs. NYK

PG/SG Seth Curry, DAL | DK: $3k, FD: $3.6k | vs. MEM (Decent punt as is but better punt if Hardaway sits)

Small Forwards/Power Forwards to Consider 🏀

PF Kevin Durant, PHX | DK: $9.9k, FD: $10.2k | vs. DEN

Durant has only seen a slight +2.1% usage spike with Devin Booker (ankle/out) off the floor this season. That being said, KD is priced as if Booker was playing so he makes for a perfectly fine spend-up on this slate. KD and the Suns welcome the defending champs to their home court this evening and, even without the services of Booker and Bradley Beal, Phoenix is only a three-point home ‘dog. This is the first meeting between these two teams this season and you could work in a light revenge narrative for Durant since Denver was the team that bounced Phoenix out of the playoffs in last season’s conference semifinals. Durant’s shooting has been much better on his home floor this season -- he’s shooting 57.9% at home, including a scorching 61.3% from three-point range, as opposed to a 47.4% FG% on the road (and a still-strong, but less effective 40.9% 3P%). We can expect Durant to operate in a bit of a “point forward” role as well, and he’s averaging 7.2 assists over his previous five starts. Durant gives you a high floor tonight and, if his usage peaks over 40%, we’ll likely see a ceiling game as well even in a less-than-ideal match-up.

PF/C Al Horford, BOS | DK: $6.2k, FD: $6.1k | vs. PHI

With Kristaps Porzingis (calf/out) set to miss a third consecutive game, Al Horford should land back in the starting rotation. Horford has started the previous three games. He posted a dud against Orlando in the first of those three starts. I’m willing to give him a pass there as the Magic have been one of the best defensive teams in the NBA this season. In the two starts since, both at home against the Hawks and Bulls, Horford posted DFS scores of 35.25 DKFP/37.5 FDFP and 46.75 DKFP/47.8 FDFP. In general, Horford has been better at home this season where he is averaging +20.4% more FPPG than on the road, despite averaging exactly two fewer minutes per game at home. The 76ers have also not defended stretch bigs all too well this season and when Horford played against Philly back on November 15th (also as a starter), he put up 40.5 DKFP/43.1 FDFP. I’m not downgrading Horford if Joel Embiid (illness/questionable) plays tonight, but it will be a softer match-up if Embiid sits. Given the fact that Vegas is pinning the Celtics as -6.5 favorites in this one, I get the feeling that Embiid is more on the wrong side of his “questionable” designation. Unfortunately, he does get bumped down the priority list on FanDuel, where Horford is only center-eligible on a day where spending up for Nikola Jokic looks like a strong move (hot take, I know). Nonetheless, Horford should be viewed as a solid floor play with plenty of 6x-7x upside.

SF/PF Derrick Jones Jr., DAL | DK: $4k, FD: $4.6k | vs. MEM

When you get a superstar like Luka Doncic sitting out for the first time this season, minutes and usage will trickle down to more than just the guards (Irving/Hardy). Two cheap Mavs forwards that should receive some consideration today are Derrick Jones Jr. and Josh Green (DK: $3.9k, FD: $4.4k). Both guys could end up in the starting lineup tonight and are at very similar price points. If I’m forced to choose just one, I’ll be siding ever so slightly with Derrick Jones Jr. His DFS floor has been low (so has Green’s), but Jones has at least shown that he can pop off for around 30-35 fantasy points even when he’s sharing the court with Luka. In 39 minutes with Luka off the court this season, Jones has seen a team-high +9.04% usage boost. He came off of the bench for the first time this season in the previous game, and put up a respectable 27.0 DKFP/26.7 FDFP in 34 minutes. Since Jones does have plenty of experience with the other Mavs starters, I believe he’s very likely to re-enter the starting rotation tonight. He won’t be without some risk, but I’d be moderately surprised if Jones completely flops at these DFS salaries today.

Other Forwards to Consider

PF Zion Williamson, NOP | DK: $8.9k, FD: $8.8k | vs. SAS

PF Paolo Banchero, ORL | DK: $8.4k, FD: $7.8k | vs. WAS

PF/C Jaren Jackson Jr., MEM | DK: $8k, FD: $8k | @ DAL

SF Franz Wagner, ORL | DK: $7.8k, FD: $7.7k | vs. WAS

SF/PF Keldon Johnson, SAS | DK: $7.5k, FD: $7k | @ NOP

SF/SG Tim Hardaway Jr., DAL | DK: $5.5k, FD: $4.8k | vs. MEM (Hardaway is currently questionable)

SF/SG Julian Champagnie, SAS | DK: $4.9k, FD: $4k | @ NOP (FD Preferred / Preferred if starting)

PF David Roddy, MEM | DK: $4.7k, FD: $4.6k | @ DAL (Preferred if he’s starting again)

SF/PF Grant Williams, DAL | DK: $4.4k, FD: $4.4k | vs. MEM (Lower-owned Mavs player)

PF Nicolas Batum, PHI | DK: $4.1k, FD: $4.7k | @ BOS (DK Preferred)

SF/PF Josh Green, DAL | DK: $3.9k, FD: $4.4k | vs. MEM (Preferred if starting)

Centers to Consider 🏀

C Nikola Jokic, DEN | DK: $12.4k, FD: $12.7k | @ PHX

There is more than enough value on this small slate to make paying up for the Joker quite easy. Yes, he’s pricey, but he also brings a monstrous floor and 70 to 80+ FP potential to DFS lineups. He dominated the Suns in the conference semifinals last season, putting up at least 73 DKFP/68 FDFP in 5-of-6 games. Of course, the playoffs and the regular season are hard to compare, but Jokic is rarely going to burn you and he’s a very likely candidate to land in the optimal lineup this evening.

C Jonas Valanciunas, NOP | DK: $6.8k, FD: $6.5k | vs. SAS

I believe we can feel a bit more comfortable with J-Val’s minutes allotment in games where Larry Nance Jr. (ribs/out) is absent. Valanciunas isn’t always the steadiest of DFS investments, but he can break open a slate with the occasional 50+ FP performance and, if he receives 28-32 minutes, he’s very unlikely to put up a dud. The Spurs rank 27th in rebounding% and have allowed the 10th most points in the paint per game. They’ve put those numbers up with 7’4” rim protector Victor Wembanyama (hip/out) having played every game up to this point in the season. With Wemby out of the picture tonight, Valanciunas could feast in this match-up. The only real concern is the blowout factor with the Pelicans being slate-leading -13 point home favorites. Regardless, Valanciunas works as a cheaper pivot away from Jokic… or, on DraftKings, he’s worthy of some exposure in double center lineups.

Other Centers to Consider

C Jusuf Nurkic, PHX | DK: $6.9k, FD: $7.6k | vs. DEN

C Zach Collins, SAS | DK: $6.8k, FD: $6.6k | @ NOP

C Goga Bitadze, ORL | DK: $5.6k, FD: $5.5k | vs. WAS

C Bismack Buyombo, MEM | DK: $5.4k, FD: $5.4k | @ DAL

C Dereck Lively II, DAL | DK: $4.9k, FD: $5.2k | vs. MEM

C Paul Reed, PHI | DK: $4.7k, FD: $5.1k | @ BOS (Only if Embiid is out)

PF/C Robert Covington, PHI | DK: $4.1k, FD: $4.9k | @ BOS (DK Preferred / Boost if Embiid is out)

C Mo Bamba, PHI | DK: $3.5k, FD: $3.7k | @ BOS (GPP punt if Embiid is out unless he is a surprise starter)

PrizePicks NBA Power Play ⚡

Here is a two-pick “Power Play” I’m liking for today's NBA action over on PrizePicks! Nothing is ever a guarantee to hit but I put my own money on these bets so I don't just lightly throw these out there without believing they'll cash! If it hits, it will return 3x the wager.

Al Horford MORE than 19.5 Pts + Rebs + Asts

Zion Williamson MORE than 13.5 First Half Points

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That will wrap us up with today’s “Daily Dribble” edition! Once again, you can find me on Twitter or in LineStar chat @Ryan_Humphries. Good luck everyone!