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- Top NBA DFS Plays & Prop Bets 12/12 | The Monday Magic Starts Now
Top NBA DFS Plays & Prop Bets 12/12 | The Monday Magic Starts Now
Let's get a strong start to the week and lock in on tonight's seven-game NBA slate with some top DFS plays and props to consider!
Written By: Ryan Humphries on Twitter & LineStar chat @Ryan_Humphries
DFS Main Slate Rundown 📰
Welcome back for another week of NBA madness! I’m always down for a solid mid-sized slate, and we’ll have one of those on the board this evening with a seven-game slate. Let’s get a nice jump on this week and reel in some cash! Best of luck today!
Today’s Key Injuries:
Nets: N. Claxton - In , R. O’Neale - OUT
Wizards: B. Beal - OUT, M. Morris - OUT, D. Wright - OUT, R. Hachimura - OUT, A. Gill - Questionable
Heat: J. Butler - Probable, T. Herro - Probable, M. Strus - Probable, V. Oladipo - Probable, D. Dedmon - Questionable, D. Robinson - Probable, G. Vincent - OUT
Hawks: T. Young - Questionable, D. Murray - OUT, C. Capela - Questionable, J. Collins - OUT, B. Bogdanovic - OUT
Grizzlies: J. Morant - Questionable, D. Bane - OUT, S. Adams - Questionable, J. LaRavia - Questionable
Thunder: K. Williams - OUT
Mavs: M. Kleber - Questionable, J. Green - OUT, D. Bertans - OUT
Cavs: D. Mitchell - Questionable, K. Love - Questionable, D. Wade - OUT
Spurs: J. Poeltl - OUT, K. Johnson - Questionable, K. Bates-Diop - OUT, J. Sochan - Questionable
T-Wolves: K. Towns - OUT, J. McLaughlin - Doubtful, T. Prince - OUT
Trailblazers: J. Hart - Probable, J. Winslow - Probable, D. Eubanks - Probable
Celtics: A. Horford - OUT
Clippers: I. Zubav - Questionable, N. Powell - OUT
Main Slate Match-Ups w/ Game Totals & Point Spreads
Note: NBA position designations are never going to perfectly align between the major DFS sites. For the purposes of these newsletters, positional designations will default to DraftKings.
💫 = Favorite Play
Point Guards/Shooting Guards to Consider 🏀
💫PG Damian Lillard, POR | DK: $10.2k, FD: $9.7k | vs. MIN | Cash & GPP
Dame Time is heating up after dropping 76 points and dished 20 assists across his last two games. He leads the slate with 10.6 3PA/gm and Minnesota has allowed the 2nd highest percentage of points scored against them to come from three-point range (36.1%). The T-Wolves (2nd in pace) have also forced plenty of high-scoring games this season and they’ve ranked last versus starting PGs, allowing 43.43 FPPG to the position over their last 20 games. We’ll be expecting more than that from Lillard but it’s a great spot to go to him this evening as a spend-up option.
💫SG Tyler Herro, MIA | DK: $8k, FD: $7.7k | @ IND | Cash & GPP
Steady as she goes. Herro has now scored between 39.25 DKFP and 50.75 DKFP in seven consecutive games and he has played no fewer than 36 minutes in those games. He’ll draw the ever-favorable Pacers match-up tonight. Indiana ranks 4th in pace, and they’ve often struggled at defending opposing backcourts. The last time Herro faced the Pacers, he dropped 46.25 DKFP -- we can be on the lookout for a similar result tonight.
💫SG/SF Trent Forrest, ATL | DK: $3.1k, FD: $3.8k | @ MEM | Cash & GPP
With Dejounte Murray (ankle) missing the last two games, Forrest has stepped in to play 28 and 34 minutes in his last two games and slid into the starting rotation yesterday. Murray is sidelined for at least another week or two and now Trae Young is questionable to play and Bogdan Bogdanovic is out as well. Regardless of whether Young suits up, Forrest should push for 30+ minutes again tonight and likely draws a second consecutive start. He’s not the most productive guy when he’s on the court but his near-minimum price tags on both sites make him a clear value target for this slate.
Other Guards to Consider:
PG Luka Doncic, DAL | DK: $12.7k, FD: $12k | vs. OKC | GPP Preferred
PG Tyrese Haliburton, IND | DK: $9.3k, FD: $9.5k | vs. MIA | GPP Preferred
💫PG/SG Marcus Smart, BOS | DK: $6.1k, FD: $6.4k | @ LAC | GPP Preferred
SG/SF Caris LeVert, CLE | DK: $5k, FD: $5.5k | @ SAS | Cash & GPP (Pending D. Mitchell Injury News)
💫PG/SG Malcolm Brogdon, BOS | DK: $4.9k, FD: $5.6k | @ LAC | DK Preferred
💫PG/SG Jordan Goodwin, WAS | DK: $4.6k, FD: $5.2k | vs. BKN | Cash & GPP
Small Forwards/Power Forwards to Consider 🏀
SF/SG Paul George, LAC | DK: $9.2k, FD: $9.1k | vs. BOS | GPP Preferred
PG heads into tonight on the heels of two huge performances where he averaged a whopping 1.61 FPPM and dropped 52.0 DKFP and 65.25 DKFP. This is a middling match-up against Boston, who ranks mid-pack in both pace and defensive efficiency but the game itself could have a bit of a playoff atmosphere. So this could be the type of game that George “gets up” for and takes over, which makes him a worthy high-end GPP target.
💫SF/PF Kyle Anderson, MIN | DK: $5.2k, FD: $5.6k | @ POR | Cash & GPP
Anderson has been one of the primary beneficiaries of the KAT injury and he has secured at least 31 minutes and 29.5 DKFP in four of his last five games. The T-Wolves just played the Trailblazers two days ago and Anderson ended up tying his season-high in minutes (39) and posted a rock-solid stat line of 14 points, seven rebounds, six assists, and a steal. He has averaged 0.90 FPPM this season so another night of 35+ minutes played should lead to some nice value at these $5k salaries.
💫SF/PF Deni Avdija, WAS | DK: $4.9k, FD: $5.5k | vs. BKN | Cash & GPP
Avdija will be one of the most popular plays on the slate but he is simply too cheap given his recent workload. The Wizards continue to be quite shorthanded which has led to Avdija playing at least 39 Min/Gm in three straight while putting up at least 30.5 DKFP in that span. It’s not a stellar match-up against the Nets (13th vs. SF) but they have given up at least 116 PPG in their last three games and Avdija should continue playing massive minutes.
Other Forwards to Consider:
SF/SG Anthony Edwards, MIN | DK: $9.4k, FD: $8.9k | @ POR | GPP/FD Preferred
💫PF Kyle Kuzma, WAS | DK: $8.5k, FD: $8.4k | vs. BKN | Cash & GPP
PF/C Jaren Jackson Jr., MEM | DK: $7.1k, FD: $7.8k | vs. ATL | GPP Preferred (Big usage bump if J. Morant is out)
SF/PF Kawhi Leonard, LAC | DK: $7k, FD: $6.3k | vs. BOS | FD Preferred
PF/C Brandon Clarke, MEM | DK: $4.2k, FD: $5k | vs. ATL | GPP Preferred (Cash play if S. Adams is out)
Centers to Consider 🏀
💫C Kristaps Prozingis, WAS | DK: $9.5k, FD: $9.2k | vs. BKN | Cash & GPP
Bradley Beal (hamstring/out) has played all but three minutes in the Wizards’ last four games. In that span, Prozingis has taken over while producing a stout 1.47 FPPM average. He’s been a bit more productive at home this season (+4.4 FPPG) and, if Nic Claxton (hamstring/questionable) is unable to suit up for the Nets, this stands out as a nice match-up for Porzingis. He’s a strong option whether or not Claxton is available, but he should have his way down low if he’s out.
C Blake Griffin, BOS | DK: $4k, FD: $4.3k | @ LAC | GPP Preferred
What year is it again? Blake Griffin has been an afterthought for a while now but he’s been providing some nice value as of late while starting the last three games in place of the injured Al Horford. Griffin has played 20, 22, and 32 minutes in his last three games while averaging a respectable 1.04 FPPM in that stretch. The Clippers have been sneaky bad against opposing centers this season so, with Horford out once again tonight, we can look toward Griffin for some potential value in the latest tip-off of the night. I have him listed as a GPP preferred play but he’s honestly not a bad fit for cash games if you need the salary relief.
Other Centers to Consider:
C Rudy Gobert, MIN | DK: $7.2k, FD: $7.6k | @ POR | Cash & GPP
💫C Jarrett Allen, CLE | DK: $7k, FD: $6.9k | @ SAS | Cash & GPP
C Myles Turner, IND | DK: $6.6k, FD: $7.7k | vs. MIA | GPP/DK Preferred
C Onyeka Okongwu, ATL | DK: $3.7k, FD: $4.5k | @ MEM | DK Preferred
NBA Player Props 📊
Player Prop or Bet | Odds | Unit Bet Size
Tyler Herro OVER 30.5 Points/Rebounds/Assists | -120 (Caesars) | 2.0 Units
Herro has cashed the over on this prop in seven straight so there is no reason to believe that trend will stop now. He’s playing very strong minutes (at least 36 min. in his last seven) and he’ll be involved in a significant pace-up spot against the Pacers tonight -- MIA: 26th in pace, IND: 4th in pace. At least 31 combined points, rebounds, and assists should be an extremely achievable target for Herro this evening.
Anfernee Simons OVER 3.5 Three-Pointers Made | -145 (DraftKings) | 2.25 Units
Over half of Simons’ shot attempts have come from beyond the arc this season and he’s averaging nearly as many 3PA per game (10.4) as teammate Damian Lillard (10.6). However, he’s connecting on more of those three-point shots, particularly at home where he’s shooting a fantastic 43.3% from deep. As mentioned in the Lillard DFS spotlight above, the Timberwolves are allowing 36.1% of opponent points to come via the three-point shot, which is the 2nd highest percentage in the NBA. Simons just connected on 5-of-10 3PA against Minnesota two nights ago and he has hit the over on this prop in seven of the last nine games.
PrizePicks Power Play ⚡
Here is a two-pick “Power Play” I’m liking for today's NBA action over on PrizePicks! Nothing is ever a guarantee to hit but I put my own money on these bets so I don't just lightly throw these out there without believing they'll cash! If it hits, it will return 3x the wager.
Malcolm Brogdon MORE than 21.5 PTS+REBS+ASTS
Kyle Kuzma MORE than 27.5 PTS+ASTS
🆕 Props Edge+ 🆕
In LineStar’s ongoing mission to improve, innovate, and help you reel in some cash, we are introducing Props Edge+ for NBA – available for LineStar Premium users! This tool can help you find value and mispriced odds on player props from sportsbooks and, more specifically, for PrizePicks and UnderDog Fantasy!
Speaking of props, put the Props Edge+ tool to use by signing up for PrizePicks (Promo code: BETFULLY) or Underdog (Promo code: LINESTAR). You'll receive a 100% match on first deposits up to $100 PLUS a free two-month subscription to LineStar Premium. Many people may not realize that you can legally place prop bets in most states using UnderDog (or PrizePicks) – it’s called Pick'Em, and it’s incredibly easy.
That will wrap us up with today’s “Daily Dribble” edition! Once again, you can find me on Twitter or in LineStar chat @Ryan_Humphries. Good luck everyone!