Written By: Ryan Humphries on Twitter & LineStar chat @Ryan_Humphries

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NBA DFS & Props Shows w/ Shannon & Tyler!

DFS Main Slate Rundown 📰

We’ll land in the “sweet spot” of slate sizes, at least in my book, with a seven-game set on tap for this evening. This looks like it’ll be a fun slate to build for with some quality match-ups on the board, and we’ll have a little extra time to get everything squared away with the first games not tipping off until 7:30 ET. Let’s dive into it! Best of luck!

Today’s Key Injuries

• Cavaliers: E. Mobley - OUT

• Celtics: J. Brown - Questionable, K. Porzingis - Probable

• Bulls: Z. LaVine - OUT, A. Caruso - Questionable

• Heat: B. Adebayo - OUT, T. Herro - OUT, J. Richardson - OUT, H. Highsmith - OUT

• Timberwolves: A. Edwards - Questionable, J. McDaniels - Questionable

• Mavericks: K. Irving - OUT, T. Hardaway Jr. - Probable, D. Jones Jr. - Questionable, S. Curry - OUT, J. Green - OUT, M. Kleber - OUT

• Nets: B. Simmons - OUT, L. Walker IV - OUT, D. Smith Jr. - OUT

• Nuggets: J. Murray - Probable, K. Caldwell-Pope - OUT

• Thunder: None

• Kings: T. Lyles - Questionable

• Jazz: L. Markkanen - OUT, J. Collins - OUT, J. Clarkson - OUT, K. George - OUT, L. Samanic - Questionable

• Trailblazers: M. Brogdon - Questionable, J. Grant - OUT, D. Ayton - Questionable

• Warriors: D. Green - OUT, G. Payton II - OUT

• Clippers: P. George - Questionable, M. Plumlee - OUT

Main Slate Match-Ups w/ Game Totals & Point Spreads

Top DraftKings & FanDuel DFS Plays

Note: NBA position designations are never going to perfectly align between the major DFS sites. For the purposes of these newsletters, positional designations will default to DraftKings.

Point Guards/Shooting Guards to Consider 🏀

PG De’Aaron Fox, SAC | DK: $9.6k, FD: $9.9k | vs. OKC

It was a tough night at the office for Fox on Tuesday as he put up just 14 points on 5/16 shooting with three boards and three assists across 25 minutes in a 20-point loss to the Clippers. We’ll chalk it up to an off night and nothing more. Fox will land in a strong spot to bounce back at home against the Thunder. Fox has been at his best at home this season, where he is averaging a potent 1.40 FPPM and +14.6% more FPPG than on the road. Opposing point guards are also finding plenty of success against OKC lately and this game owns a slate-high 244.5 over/under with Sacramento being slight two-point favorites. A balanced lineup approach feels like the way to go today, pending further injury news, so Fox may not be a priority, but I love the potential upside he brings to the table this evening.

PG/SG Anfernee Simons, POR | DK: $7.8k, FD: $8.3k | vs. UTA

Simons had a long injury layoff this season but has been incredible now that he’s healthy and I still don’t believe his DFS prices have caught up to his current production. In the three games since Simons returned from a thumb injury that held him out for 18 games, he is averaging 32 PPG on 23.7 FGA/gm across 37.0 Min/gm. He’s shooting 44.1% from three-point range in that span as well so the injury clearly hasn’t had a major impact on his shooting form. Simons will be playing in just his second home game of the season and the Trailblazers (-3.5) find themselves as rare favorites. In his 2023 home debut last Friday, Simons came away with 49.25 DKFP/45 FDFP. The Jazz check in at 26th in DEFRTG and offer a solid pace-up match-up for the Trailblazers. They’ve also ranked 22nd against opposing SGs over their last 20 games and are on the second leg of a back-to-back. Simons should be fairly popular today, but all indications point toward him returning value on his current DFS salaries. He’ll also get a nice boost if Malcolm Brogdon (knee/questionable) sits out for a third consecutive game.

PG/SG Collin Sexton, UTA | DK: $5.7k, FD: $5.4k | @ POR

We’ll hop to the other side of this match-up and spotlight one of the best guard values on the slate. Sexton is going to be chalk but he’ll need to step up for a Jazz team that is down their two starting guards, Jordan Clarkson (thigh/out) and Keyonte George (foot/out), and could be without forward Lauri Markkanen (hamstring/questionable), who may not play on the second leg of the back-to-back following his recent eight-game absence. Sexton stepped into the starting lineup for the first time this season last night, replacing Jordan Clarkson, and he did not disappoint. Despite drawing a tough Knicks opponent (10th in DEFRTG), Sexton posted a 26/4/7 line across 30 minutes and accrued 42.0 DKFP/39.3 FDFP. Barring some major surprise, Sexton should land back in the starting rotation tonight and he’s simply underpriced given this temporary expanded role.

Update: The Jazz will sit both Lauri Markkanen and John Collins today. That’s an added boost for a guy like Sexton.

Other Guards to Consider

PG Luka Doncic, DAL | DK: $11.9k, FD: $12.6k | vs. MIN

PG James Harden, LAC | DK: $8.2k, FD: $8.1k | vs. GSW (Boost if P. George sits)

PG Coby White, CHI | DK: $7.5k, FD: $7.7k | @ MIA

PG Jamal Murray, DEN | DK: $7.3k, FD: $7.5k | vs. BKN

PG/SG Derrick White, BOS | DK: $6.8k, FD: $7.2k | vs. CLE (Boost if J. Brown sits)

PG/SF Dante Exum, DAL | DK: $6.6k, FD: $7k | vs. MIN

SG/SF Tim Hardaway Jr., DAL | DK: $6k, FD: $5.9k | vs. MIN (Slight boost if D. Jones Jr. sits)

PG/SG Brandin Podziemski, GSW | DK: $5.3k, FD: $5.8k | @ LAC

SG/SF Julian Strawther, DEN | DK: $4.6k, FD: $4.4k | vs. BKN (Preferred if he starts for Caldwell-Pope)

PG/SG Kris Dunn, UTA | DK: $4.3k, FD: $4.4k | @ POR

SG/SF Matisse Thybulle, POR | DK: $4.2k, FD: $4.5k | vs. UTA (If he continues to start)

Small Forwards/Power Forwards to Consider 🏀

SF/PF Jimmy Butler, MIA | DK: $9.1k, FD: $8.7k | vs. CHI

Butler hasn’t seen a notable uptick in fantasy production while the Heat have been without the services of Tyler Herro and Bam Adebayo (both still out tonight). However, this will be a nice spot for Jimmy Buckets to pop off a bit. His best games have tended to come at home this season where he’s averaging +25.9% more FPPG than on the road. The Bulls play at the NBA’s slowest pace, and Miami (24th in pace) doesn’t push the tempo much either. So, folks won’t be frothing at the mouth to load up on this game, which has a slate-low 216.5 over/under. That said, Chicago has defended opposing SFs poorly, ranking 28th against the position L20Games. As mentioned with De’Aaron Fox, spending up for most of the pricey guys doesn’t feel like it’ll be optimal today (again, pending further injury news), but Jimmy Butler has some 50+ FP potential today and should provide nice leverage at < 10% ownership (though, he could be fairly popular on FanDuel).

SF/SG Shaedon Sharpe, POR | DK: $8k, FD: $7.8k | vs. UTA

I’m fairly skeptical about whether or not Sharpe can continue to play at such a high level, but he’s been on a tear as of late, averaging 45.3 DKFP/42.6 FDFP over his previous five games while playing 39.4 Mins/gm. Sharpe seems to be comfortable with sharing the court with Simons since his return, but he has not played many minutes with BOTH Anfernee Simons and Malcolm Brogdon on the court this season. So if Brogdon (knee/questionable) can play tonight, I may be looking to fade Sharpe, or at least lower exposure drastically. Unfortunately, with this being a 10 o’clock ET tip-off, we probably won’t know Brodgon’s status until well after the initial games get underway. Jerami Grant is still out and Deandre Ayton (knee/questionable) could miss a fourth consecutive game, so there could be enough room for Simons, Sharpe, and Brogdon (if he’s active) to produce. We’ll view Sharpe as a solid mid-range play for now, but he’ll get a downgrade if Brogdon (and Ayton, to an extent) is able to play this evening.

SF/PF Jonathan Kuminga, GSW | DK: $5.4k, FD: $5.3k | @ LAC

Following some more boneheaded on-court antics from Draymond Green (suspended indefinitely), a guy like Jonathan Kuminga should be called upon to step up and handle some added run. Kuminga is a candidate to step into the starting lineup in place of Green. If that’s the case, I’d feel much more comfortable about this play. But even if he remains in a bench role, Kuminga has a legitimate chance to return value on his current DFS salaries. He has bolstered his production to 1.13 FPPM over his last five games (all off of the bench). And in the three games where he has played at least 23 minutes in that recent five-game stretch, Kuminga has posted DFS scores of 34.0 DKFP/33.7 FDFP (vs. LAC), 40.5 DKFP/35.4 FDFP (@ OKC), and 25.5 DKFP/25.2 FDFP (@ PHX). I have him projected for 27 minutes tonight in what should be a competitive, and fairly high-scoring, game (232 O/U, LAC -5.5). So we can look to Kuminga for value out of the $5k range today.

Other Forwards to Consider

SF/PF Jayson Tatum, BOS | DK: $9.7k, FD: $9.8k | vs. CLE (Boost if J. Brown sits)

PF/C Karl-Anthony Towns, MIN | DK: $9k, FD: $8.5k | @ DAL (Preferred if A. Edwards sits)

SF/PF Kawhi Leonard, LAC | DK: $8.7k, FD: $9k | vs. GSW (Boost if P. George sits)

SF/PF DeMar DeRozan, CHI | DK: $8.2k, FD: $8.2k | @ MIA

SF/SG Max Strus, CLE | DK: $6.4k, FD: $6.2k | @ BOS

PF Keegan Murray, SAC | DK: $5.9k, FD: $6.1k | vs. OKC

PF/C Naz Reid, MIN | DK: $5.5k, FD: $5.7k | @ DAL

SF/PF Simone Fontecchio, UTA | DK: $5.1k, FD: $5k | @ POR

SF/SG Talen Horton-Tucker, UTA | DK: $5k, FD: $5.3k | @ POR

SF Luguentz Dort, OKC | DK: $4.3k, FD: $4.7k | @ SAC (DK Preferred)

SF/SG Christian Braun, DEN | DK: $4.2k, FD: $4k | vs. BKN (Preferred if he starts for Caldwell-Pope)

PF/C Taylor Hendricks, UTA | DK: $4.2k, FD: $3.9k | @ POR

SF/SG Jamal Cain, MIA | DK: $3.4k, FD: $3.6k | vs. CHI (Risky GPP punt)

Centers to Consider 🏀

C Nikola Jokic, DEN | DK: $12k, FD: $12.4k | vs. BKN

Jokic is coming off of another fairly bogus double-tech ejection from Tuesday’s game against the Bulls. He played just 16 minutes in that game so he should be well-rested and ready to take out some frustrations on the Nets. If you look back to his Nov. 20th game where he was also ejected against the Pistons, he followed that up with a 30/13/12 triple-double which included three steals and two blocks. That game was against a tough Magic defense (3rd in DEFRTG) and all of those stats added up to 78.75 DKFP/77.6 FDFP. The Joker is also back at home tonight which is where he has been most dominant. In 10 home games, he’s averaging 68.3 FPPG, versus 58.8 FPPG on the road (14 games). He has racked up at least 64.5 DKFP/60.5 in all but one home game this season. So, while we can never predict when the refs are going to want the game to be about them, we can rest assured that Jokic provides the best floor/ceiling combo on the slate. We can also pretty much guarantee that those folks who we refer to as “game log watchers” (who aren’t actually aware of why Jokic had a down game on Tuesday, they just see a bad fantasy score) will look past Jokic today. I’ll always be happy to grab some Joker shares when he’s going to likely be around 10% owned, especially when it’s on a somewhat smaller slate like this seven-gamer today.

C Kelly Olynyk, UTA | DK: $5.3k, FD: $5.3k | @ POR

Just as I was wrapping up the newsletter with this center section, the Jazz ruled out both Lauri Markkanen and John Collins. So, on top of being short on backcourt depth (J. Clarkson/K. George both out), they’ll be lacking in experienced frontcourt bodies as well. Olynyk is a notoriously tough player to “get right” in DFS, but he could realistically be a top-three scoring option for the Jazz today. And it’s already a stellar match-up against the Trailblazers (29th vs. Starting Centers L20Games) who have struggled to contain opposing bigs all season. Portland allows the 3rd most points in the paint, ranks 25th in rebounding percentage, allows the most blocks per game, and gives up the 3rd most steals per game. Olynyk isn’t exactly a premier shot blocker, but he could stumble into two or three combined blocks/steals and his scoring plus rebounding should lead to value returned on his $5,300 salary on both sites today.

Other Centers to Consider

C Domantas Sabonis, SAC | DK: $9.3k, FD: $9.6k | vs. OKC (Season-low salary on DK)

C Nikola Vucevic, CHI | DK: $7.9k, FD: $8.2k | @ MIA

PF/C Kristaps Porzingis, BOS | DK: $7.6k, FD: $8.1k | vs. CLE (Boost if J. Brown sits)

C Rudy Gobert, MIN | DK: $7.5k, FD: $8.3k | @ DAL

C Jarrett Allen, CLE | DK: $6.6k, FD: $7.4k | @ BOS (DK Preferred)

C Walker Kessler, UTA | DK: $6.5k, FD: $7.1k | @ POR (Preferred if he starts, nice GPP pivot off of the chalky Olynyk)

C Duop Reath, POR | DK: $4.5k, FD: $4.6k | vs. UTA (Only if D. Ayton is out again)

PrizePicks NBA Power Play ⚡

Here is a two-pick “Power Play” I’m liking for today's NBA action over on PrizePicks! Nothing is ever a guarantee to hit but I put my own money on these bets so I don't just lightly throw these out there without believing they'll cash! If it hits, it will return 3x the wager.

Coby White MORE than 31.5 Pts + Rebs + Asts

Anfernee Simons MORE than 27.5 Points

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That will wrap us up with today’s “Daily Dribble” edition! Once again, you can find me on Twitter or in LineStar chat @Ryan_Humphries. Good luck everyone!