Written By: Ryan Humphries on Twitter & LineStar chat @Ryan_Humphries

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NBA DFS & Props Shows w/ Shannon & Tyler!

DFS Main Slate Rundown 📰

TGIF! One of the more intriguing slates of the season thus far lands on the menu today. Out of the eight games on this slate, six match-ups possess a total of at least 231.5 points, which includes a towering 260 O/U in the Pacers/Wizards match-up. It’s not a major surprise to see such a wild total in that game -- it features the two fastest-paced teams as well as two of the bottom three defensive teams in the NBA. How you choose to go about navigating and gaining exposure to that game will have a huge influence on this slate. You can load up on multiple IND/WAS players in hopes that it does trend toward a shootout or lower exposure and hope the more popular players from that game bust. Decisions, decisions.

On the injury front, we don’t have a tremendous amount of players to keep track of today (at the time of this writing). Mainly, we’ll just need to keep an ear out for news on Zion Williamson, Desmond Bane, Jaylen Brown, and the usual Lakers duo of AD/LeBron. Unless I’m forgetting someone by mistake, everyone else with a “questionable” tag is either a medium or low-impact player but, of course, it’s still worth monitoring the statuses of those kinda guys, too. As a heads up, I am writing today’s NBA newsletter a bit earlier than usual, so it’s possible (probably likely) that more injury news will pop up throughout the afternoon, which means the injury list below may not be fully up-to-date by the time you’re reading this. But, while working on this newsletter, I will be updating the injury list as news drops. Anyhow, let’s fly into the weekend on a high note! Best of luck!

Today’s Key Injuries

• Pacers: A. Nembhard - OUT, J. Smith - OUT

• Wizards: J. Poole - Questionable, D. Wright - OUT, L. Shamet - OUT

• Pelicans: Z. Williamson - Questionable, M. Ryan - OUT, L. Nance Jr. - OUT

• Hornets: L. Ball - OUT, M. Williams - Doubtful, PJ Washington - Questionable

• Pistons: J. Duren - OUT, M. Bagley III - OUT

• 76ers: None

• Magic: W. Carter Jr. - OUT, M. Fultz - Questionable

• Celtics: J. Brown - Questionable, K. Porzingis - Doubtful, A. Horford - OUT, L. Kornet - OUT

• Hawks: D. Hunter - Questionable, J. Johnson - OUT, AJ Griffin - OUT

• Raptors: None

• Lakers: A. Davis - Questionable, L. James - Questionable, T. Prince - Questionable, G. Vincent - OUT, J. Vanderbilt - Probable

• Spurs: C. Bassey - OUT (done for the season so I won’t include him on these lists after today)

• Rockets: A. Thompson - Questionable, J. Tate - Doubtful

• Grizzlies: D. Bane - Questionable, M. Smart - OUT, L. Kennard - OUT

• Knicks: M. Robinson - OUT

• Suns: E. Gordon - Questionable, J. Okogie - OUT

Main Slate Match-Ups w/ Game Totals & Point Spreads

Top DraftKings & FanDuel DFS Plays

Note: NBA position designations are never going to perfectly align between the major DFS sites. For the purposes of these newsletters, positional designations will default to DraftKings.

Point Guards/Shooting Guards to Consider 🏀

PG Tyrese Haliburton, IND | DK: $11.3k, FD: $10.9k | @ WAS

Not exactly a surprise that we’ll start things off with a key player from this juicy game environment. A 260 over/under is just such an extreme outlier and, someone correct me if I’m wrong, but I believe it’s the highest total in NBA history (overtaking Wednesday’s 259.5 O/U between the Pacers and Bucks). Haliburton has not returned value on his DFS salaries over the previous three games but perhaps that just least to lower ownership. It’s quite clearly a “smash spot” for Hali. These are the two fastest-paced offenses in the NBA and neither team specializes in defense (WAS: 30th DEFRTG, IND: 28th DEFRTG). Haliburton’s big games also tend to come on the road. He’s averaging 59.4 DKFP/56.7 FDFP in nine away games this season, which is a +18.6% increase over his home fantasy point average. The Pacers also lead all teams on the slate, by a wide margin, with a ridiculous 134.3 implied total. Pending a very early blowout, injury, or ejection, it’s tough to imagine Haliburton failing in this spot.

SG/SF OG Anunoby, TOR | DK: $6.4k, FD: $6.5k | vs. ATL

This will be another game environment that will be tough to ignore. On just about any other slate, this 241.5 over/under would draw plenty of attention, and we’ve got a close two-point spread, in favor of the home team Raptors, as well. These teams are facing off in back-to-back games, with the Raptors emerging victorious over the Hawks on Wednesday by a score of 135-128. Anunoby had a solid performance in that game, putting up 22 points and 34.75 DKFP/33.5 FDFP across 37 minutes. Anunoby also has a couple of 40+ FP showings within his last four games, so we’re getting a decent ceiling at these mid-$6k salaries. Anunoby has scored 1.01 FPPM at home this season compared to 0.80 FPPM on the road. So he may not be the most prolific fantasy scorer on a per-minute basis, but he’s been much better at home and is going to play upper-30s minutes in any competitive game. Given the sizable pace-up spot (TOR: 21st in pace, ATL: 3rd in pace), the added possessions should help lead to another strong outing from Anunoby.

PG Derrick Rose, MEM | DK: $5k, FD: $5.1k | vs. HOU

Some better guard value may open up as the day progresses, and this play is heavily contingent on Desmond Bane (illness/questionable) missing his second game of the season after sitting out Wednesday’s game. It does seem as if Bane is on the wrong side of that questionable designation, so we’ll assume, for now, that he’s out again tonight (far from a guarantee). The Grizzlies are already thin on backcourt depth with Ja Morant (suspension) and Marcus Smart (foot) unavailable, which has led to D-Rose starting in his last six games. Typically, the past-his-prime Rose is limited to around 20 minutes but, with Bane sidelined, he logged a season-high 31 minutes on Wednesday and posted a 19/4/6 line with a block -- earning 35.0 DKFP/34.8 FDFP. The Grizzlies will face the Rockets in back-to-back games, this time at home. Rose has been a bit better at home (1.00 FPPM) than on the road (0.88 FPPM) and if he can push for 30 minutes again tonight, he’s likely going to return some nice value at his $5k/$5.1k DFS salaries. If Bane plays, my interest in Rose will be close to nil.

Other Guards to Consider

PG Trae Young, ATL | DK: $9.9k, FD: $9.8k | @ TOR

PG/SG Terry Rozier, CHA | DK: $8.7k, FD: $9.1k | vs. TOR

PG CJ McCollum, NOP | DK: $7.6k, FD: $7.9k | @ CHA (Boost if Zion sits)

PG/SG Derrick White, BOS | DK: $7.2k, FD: $7.4k | vs. ORL (Boost if J. Brown sits)

SG/SF Bogdan Bogdanovic, ATL | DK: $6.8k, FD: $6.9k | @ TOR

SG/SF Austin Reaves, LAL | DK: $6.7k, FD: $6.5k | @ SAS (Boost if AD and/or LeBron sit)

PG Dennis Schroder, TOR | DK: $6.3k, FD: $6.6k | vs. ATL

PG/SF Bruce Brown, IND | DK: $6.2k, FD: $6k | @ WAS

SG/SF Brandon Miller, CHA | DK: $6k, FD: $5.9k | vs. NOP

SG/SF Bilal Coulibaly, WAS | DK: $5.4k, FD: $5.6k | vs. IND

PG Jose Alvarado, NOP | DK: $3.6k, FD: $3.9k | @ CHA

Small Forwards/Power Forwards to Consider 🏀

PF/C Victor Wembanyama, SAS | DK: $9.1k, FD: $10.3k | vs. LAL

Center Wemby is best Wemby. For the previous three games, the Spurs have moved Zach Collins to the bench and Wembanyama has been playing the five. In that stretch, he’s averaging 22 PPG, 17 RPG, 5 BPG, 3 APG, and 1.3 SPG. That works out to a 60.9 DKFP/62.2 FDFP average over those three games. Zach Collins now plays a reserve role and backup center Charles Bassey suffered a season-ending ACL injury earlier this week. With those two players off the floor, Wemby has handled a +3.84% usage boost but, more importantly, he’s seen a +15.1 fantasy point per 48-minute increase. He’s also averaging +24.2% more FPPG at home. The Spurs face the Lakers in back-to-back games so Wembanyama will have to contend with Anthony Davis once again (assuming he plays). While Wemby did foul out against the Lakers on Wednesday, he still ended up playing around his usual minutes (32) and came away with studly fantasy scores of 68.25 DKFP/70.6 FDFP. Now that he’s taken over at the five, his rebounding and blocked shot numbers should continue to see a sizable boost and he’s simply underpriced, especially on DraftKings, in this new role. Wembanyama will likely be an $11k player before too long if he continues to have this much success as a starting center. The Lakers also rank 25th against starting centers over their last 20 games, so it’s far from a poor match-up, as Wemby proved two days ago.

PF/C Julius Randle, NYK | DK: $8.8k, FD: $8.7k | @ PHX

I love Randle when it comes to DFS because, for whatever reason, he constantly goes under-owned, even when he’s on a tear (as he currently is). As a result, his DFS salaries barely budge despite playing more like a $9.5k - $10k type of player. He’s going to play 35-40 minutes virtually every night and he has posted at least 50.5 DKFP/48.1 FDFP in five of his last seven games. Randle is certainly not immune from a bust performance, but he’s a perpetual 30+ point double-double threat and he’ll land in a quality match-up tonight. This game owns a lofty 232.5 over/under with the Knicks being five-point ‘dogs. The Suns have also ranked 25th (L20Games) versus opposing starting power forwards. The downside is that this game will have the lowest combined pace on the slate. Nonetheless, you’re getting 6x and 50+ FP upside at low ownership if you choose to roll with Randle tonight.

SF/PF Tari Eason, HOU | DK: $5.2k, FD: $6.1k | @ MEM

Perhaps it’s a little “point chase-y” but it’s difficult to look past Tari Eason’s last two performances. He comes off of the Rockets bench but has played 27 minutes in each of the last two games and has absolutely stuffed the stat sheet in those games. On Wednesday, against this same Grizzlies team, Eason poured in 25 points and 14 rebounds with a block, steal, and assist apiece (49.5 DKFP/46.3 FDFP). On Monday, against the Spurs, he notched an 18-point, 14-rebound double-double with two steals and an assist (42.5 DKFP/40.3 FDFP). Houston won both games and is currently on a four-game win streak with Eason playing above-average minutes in three of those contests. So, why change what’s been working? I wouldn’t call it a safe play, and he’s a better bargain on DraftKings, but if Eason logs 25+ minutes again tonight, he’s probably going to return value. They don’t play the same role, but the likely absence of Jae’Sean Tate (illness/doubtful) doesn’t hurt Eason’s minutes projection either.

Other Forwards to Consider

PF/C Anthony Davis, LAL | DK: $10.3k, FD: $11.3k | @ SAS (DK Preferred, if he plays - Boost if LeBron sits)

SF/PF Jayson Tatum, BOS | DK: $10.1k, FD: $10.1k | vs. ORL (BOS is already shorthanded but boost if J. Brown also sits)

SF/PG Scottie Barnes, TOR | DK: $9k, FD: $9.2k | vs. ATL

PF/C Jaren Jackson Jr., MEM | DK: $8.5k, FD: $8.9k | vs. HOU (Preferred if D. Bane sits)

PF/C Pascal Siakam, TOR | DK: $8.3k, FD: $8.1k | vs. ATL

SF/SG Brandon Ingram, NOP | DK: $8.2k, FD: $8.4k | @ CHA (Boost if Zion sits)

SF/PF Keldon Johnson, SAS | DK: $6.8k, FD: $7k | vs. LAL

PF Saddiq Bey, ATL | DK: $6.1k, FD: $6.2k | @ TOR

PF Jabari Smith Jr., ATL | DK: $6k, FD: $6.7k | @ MEM (DK Preferred)

SG/SF Trey Murphy III, NOP | DK: $5.5k, FD: $5.8k | @ CHA (Preferred if Zion sits)

SF Vince Williams Jr., MEM | DK: $4.3k, FD: $4.2k | vs. HOU (Boost if D. Bane sits)

PF Naji Marshall, NOP | DK: $4.2k, FD: $4.6k | @ CHA (Only if Zion sits)

Centers to Consider 🏀

C Myles Turner, IND | DK: $7.5k, FD: $7.7k | @ WAS

The two fastest-paced teams in the NBA facing off will lead to a massive amount of possessions, which means significant shot attempts, which then means more rebound and shot-blocking opportunities. So it would be logical to gain exposure to the big bodies in this game. Turner is a strong shot blocker (2.1 BLK/gm, ranks 8th in NBA). He’s not a dominant rebounder (8.0 RPG) but he is bringing down more boards lately (8.8 RPG L5Games). As far as offensive involvement, there are no issues there either. Turner ranks 2nd on the team with a 23.1% USG%, just behind PG Tyrese Haliburton (25.5% USG%). He has also been playing 30+ minutes more consistently with backup center Jalen Smith (heel/out) missing the previous seven games. We know Myles Turner has 50+ FP upside in the tank and perhaps we see that sort of ceiling game out of him tonight.

C Nick Richards, CHA | DK: $5.4k, FD: $5.4k | vs. NOP

With Mark Williams (back/doubtful) expected to be out for another game, Nick Richards should be back in as the starting center. His last start wasn’t some monumental performance (6 points, 10 rebounds, 4 blocks) but the main takeaway is that he played 40 minutes in a regulation game. Richards hasn’t been as effective as a starter, yet, but he is averaging 0.99 FPPM on the season so it’s fairly easy to see how he could provide excellent value if he plays 30+ minutes again. The Pelicans are a nice match-up as they have allowed 36.7 FPPG to starting centers and they also give up an above-average amount of blocks (5.6 opp BPG, 12th most), which is where Richards can rack up some fantasy points. A double-double with two or three blocks is a realistic expectation from Richards today -- and we’ll be happy with that at his $5,400 price tag on both sites.

Other Centers to Consider

C Joel Embiid, PHI | DK: $11.8k, FD: $12.6k | vs. DET

C Jonas Valanciunas, NOP | DK: $7.1k, FD: $7.8k | @ CHA (Boost if Zion sits)

C Jakob Poeltl, TOR | DK: $5.9k, FD: $6.6k | vs. ATL (DK Preferred)

C Daniel Gafford, WAS | DK: $5.6k, FD: $6.3k | vs. IND

C Neemias Queta, BOS | DK: $3k, FD: $3.5k | vs. ORL (Great value if he starts)

PrizePicks NBA Power Play ⚡

Here is a two-pick “Power Play” I’m liking for today's NBA action over on PrizePicks! Nothing is ever a guarantee to hit but I put my own money on these bets so I don't just lightly throw these out there without believing they'll cash! If it hits, it will return 3x the wager.

Joel Embiid MORE than 32.5 Fantasy Score (1st Half)

Victor Wembanyama MORE than 24.5 Fantasy Score (1st Half)

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That will wrap us up with today’s “Daily Dribble” edition! Once again, you can find me on Twitter or in LineStar chat @Ryan_Humphries. Good luck everyone!