Four games on the menu tonight! Let’s jump into some prime NBA DFS plays and props to consider!

Written By: Ryan Humphries on Twitter & LineStar chat @Ryan_Humphries

Straight Locks | NBA Player Props w/ Shannon & Tyler!

DFS Main Slate Rundown 📰

For the small slate connoisseurs, you’re in luck! Thursday brings forth a modest four-game slate for us to delve into and we’ll have a bit more time to dissect this slate since the first game doesn’t tip off until 8:00 ET. Hopefully, we can dodge the blowouts today considering the largest spread across tonight’s games is just 3.5 points. As always on these smaller slates, finding value can oftentimes be the thing that makes or breaks your night so that will be a big focus today. Let’s get into it and best of luck this evening! And, once again, shout out to the Miami Heat for continuing to have the most annoying injury report in the league!

Today’s Key Injuries:

Bucks: J. Holiday - OUT

Grizzlies: D. Bane - OUT

Heat: J. Butler - Probable, B. Adebayo - Questionable, T. Herro - Probable, K. Lowry - OUT, V. Oladipo - OUT, C. Martin - Questionable, M. Strus - Probable, D. Dedmon - OUT, N. Jovic - Questionable, D. Robinson - Probable, G. Vincent - OUT

Rockets: J. Smith Jr. - Questionable, J. Tate - OUT

Pelicans: B. Ingram - OUT, J. Alvarado - OUT

Jazz: C. Sexton - OUT, S. Fontecchio - OUT

Suns: D. Ayton - OUT, C. Johnson - OUT, C. Payne - OUT

Clippers: P. George - OUT, K. Leonard - OUT, R. Jackson - OUT, J. Wall - Questionable, I. Zubac - Questionable, N. Powell - OUT, L. Kennard - Questionable

Main Slate Match-Ups w/ Game Totals & Point Spreads

Note: NBA position designations are never going to perfectly align between the major DFS sites. For the purposes of these newsletters, positional designations will default to DraftKings.

💫 = Favorite Play

Point Guards/Shooting Guards to Consider 🏀

PG Ja Morant, MEM | DK: $10.4k, FD: $10.8k | vs. MIL | Cash & GPP

There are really only two or three bona fide studs on this small slate, Ja being one of ‘em. That alone will make him a go-to target this evening, despite a tough match-up on paper against a Bucks team that ranks 2nd in defensive efficiency. Somewhat surprisingly, the Bucks have been a plus match-up for opposing point guards, as they rank 25th against the position over their last 20 games. Morant also won’t have to worry about four-time NBA All-Defensive team selection Jrue Holiday, who is out again tonight with a non-COVID illness. Morant recently poured in a 26-point, 13-rebound, 11-assist triple-double (66.75 DKFP) against OKC last Wednesday, and it took him only 30 minutes to accomplish that feat. He doesn’t hit 5x-6x value on these $10k+ DFS salaries consistently, but he’ll be a good bet to produce tonight. Memphis is a slight two-point home favorite and Morant has averaged 58.19 FPPG in eight close games this season, so let’s hope for a close, competitive game between these two legitimate NBA Championship contenders.

💫PG/SG Jalen Green, HOU | DK: $6.6k, FD: $7.1k | vs. MIA | Cash & GPP

Miami is one of the slowest-paced teams in the league (rank 28th) and they’re 7th in defensive efficiency, so it’s not an ideal match-up for Green and the Rockets. With that said, Jalen Green leads Houston with a 28.0% USG% and has just been super solid this season, particularly when he is at home. Green is averaging 39.1 DKFPPG in 11 home games this season, which is a +26.1% increase in comparison to his road splits (31.0 DKFPPG). The Rockets (+3.5 underdogs) are expected to keep this game close and competitive so if Green earns 35+ minutes, he should end the night as one of the best mid-range guard plays on the slate.

PG/SG Jevon Carter, MIL | DK: $4.3k, FD: $4.9k | @ MEM | Cash & GPP

Carter should slide back into the starting lineup tonight with Jrue Holiday (illness) scheduled to miss a second consecutive game. Carter has been a bit underwhelming at times as a starter this season but he’s affordable and has a wide-open pathway to 28+ minutes tonight. He has averaged a decent enough 0.78 FPPM this season. With Holiday off the court, Carter has seen a +3.94% usage boost, which is second only to Khris Middleton (+5.94% USG%). Carter’s floor should be solid but if you believe the ceiling is too limited, I don’t hate the idea of fading him in GPPs given his high projected ownership. Still, he’s a strong cash play for this sort of slate.

Other Guards to Consider:

💫PG/SG Tyler Herro, MIA | DK: $8k, FD: $7.7k | @ HOU | Cash & GPP

SG/SF Malik Beasley, UTA | DK: $5.9k, FD: $5.3k | vs. NOP | GPP Preferred

💫PG John Wall, LAC | DK: $5.6k, FD:$5.9k | vs. PHX | GPP Preferred (Cash play if starting)

PG/SG Nickeil Alexander-Walker, UTA | DK: $4.9k, FD: $5.5k | vs. NOP | GPP Preferred

PG/SG Terance Mann, LAC | DK: $4.4k, FD: $5k | vs. PHX | GPP Preferred

PG/SG Daishen Nix, HOU | DK: $3.1k, FD: $3.9k | vs. MIA | GPP/DK Preferred

Small Forwards/Power Forwards to Consider 🏀

💫SF/PF Lauri Markkanen, UTA | DK: $8.1k, FD: $8.1k | vs. NOP | Cash & GPP

Markkanen has been a tough player to “get right” but he has posted at least 38.75 DKFP in five consecutive starts so until proven otherwise, we’ll consider his floor to be right around 5x value. He’s done well in two previous match-ups against the Pelicans, scoring 56.5 DKFP on 10/23 and 39.75 DKFP in Tuesday’s game, which could’ve maybe been even better if the game didn’t turn into a 21-point blowout win for the Jazz. Also, it’s only a slight boost, but Markkanen has received a slight usage boost when Collin Sexton (hamstring/out) has been off the court. This game easily carries the highest total on the slate (232 O/U) and the Jazz are slight one-point home underdogs, so we’ll likely want some key pieces here, Markkanen being one of ‘em.

💫PF/C Bobby Portis, MIL | DK: $6.2k, FD: $6.6k | @ MEM | Cash & GPP

Portis enters tonight’s match-up on the heels of back-to-back 40+ DKFP performances. He’s always been a productive player on a per-minute basis and that is as true as ever this season considering Portis is averaging 1.22 FPPM. So, it typically comes down to whether or not he’ll get strong minutes off of the bench. He has averaged 26.3 Min/Gm this season but he has typically received a bit more run when the Bucks have been without Jrue Holiday. Portis has played at least 30 minutes in five of the six games that Holiday has sat out. 30+ minutes for Portis will usually end in great DFS results given his affordable $6.2k/$6.6k price tags. Memphis also ranks 27th against opposing reserves so we have to like Bobby P tonight!

💫PF Marcus Morris Sr., LAC | DK: $5.1k, FD: $4.9k | vs. PHX | Cash & GPP

The slew of Clippers’ injury news poured in while I was writing up this article so I’m adjusting on the fly here. Paul George, Kawhi Leonard, Reggie Jackson, and Norman Powell are all out tonight and a few other guys remain questionable. That should thrust Marcus Morris into a primary scoring role as he has seen a massive +10.74% usage boost with those four players off the court this season. There is now going to be quite a bit of potential value on the Clippers’ roster but, outside of Morris and Zubac (if he isn’t eventually ruled out), it’s unclear what the starting lineup will look like. My best guess at the Clippers’ starting five tonight will be John Wall, Terance Mann, Marcus Morris, Nic Batum, and Ivica Zubac.

Other Forwards to Consider:

PF/C Giannis Antetokounmpo, MIL | DK: $12.2k, FD: $12k | @ MEM | GPP Preferred

PF Zion Williamson, NOP | DK: $9.8k, FD: $10.2k | @ UTA | Cash & GPP

PF/C Brandon Clarke, MEM | DK: $5k, FD: $5.2k | vs. MIL | GPP Preferred

💫PF/C Nicolas Batum, LAC | DK: $4.4k, FD: $5.1k | vs. PHX | Cash & GPP (Assuming he starts)

PF Tari Eason, HOU | DK: $3.9k, FD: $4.6k | vs. MIA | DK Preferred

Centers to Consider 🏀

💫C Jonas Valanciunas, NOP | DK: $5.4k, FD: $5.7k | @ UTA | Cash & GPP

Foul trouble seems to have limited JVal to under 20 minutes in the last couple of games but he owns an excellent 40+ FP ceiling at these mid-$5k salaries. The Jazz have allowed the most points in the paint this season so if Valanciunas can stay out of foul trouble and log 25+ minutes, he should have no problems hitting value this evening.

💫C Bismack Biyombo, PHX | DK: $3.6k, FD: $5.3k | vs. LAC | Cash & GPP/DK Preferred

💫C Jock Landale, PHX | DK: $3.1k, FD: $4.2k | vs. LAC | Cash & GPP

Some more big injury news came down the pipeline moments ago with Deandre Ayton (ankle) being ruled out. So that will bring both Bismack Biyombo and Jock Landale into play. The situation is a bit muddled and it’s tough to recommend one guy over the other. Biyombo got the start in both games that Ayton has sat out this season (10/30 & 11/1), however, Jock Landale has been getting more consistent minutes than Biyombo lately. So, it’s a messy situation. My advice: both guys are likely solid value plays on DraftKings but, assuming they play similar minutes, Landale makes more sense on FanDuel at a $1,100 discount from Biyombo.

Other Centers to Consider:

C Bam Adebayo, MIA | DK: $8.6k, FD: $9.2k | @ HOU | GPP Preferred (Note: Adebayo is currently questionable)

PF/C Jarred Vanderbilt, UTA | DK: $5.7k, FD: $5.9k | vs. NOP | GPP Preferred

PF/C Jabari Smith Jr., HOU | DK: $5.5k, FD: $5.8k | Cash & GPP (Note: Smith is currently questionable)

💫C Walker Kessler, UTA | DK: $4.9k, FD: $6k | vs. NOP | DK Preferred

PF/C Robert Covington, LAC | DK: $3k, FD: $4k | vs. PHX | GPP/DK Preferred

PF/C Nikola Jovic, MIA | DK: $3k, FD: $3.8k | @ HOU | GPP Preferred (Only if Adebayo is out, Dedmon already ruled out)

NBA Player Props 📊

Player Prop or Bet | Odds | Unit Bet Size

Bobby Portis OVER 24.5 Points/Rebounds/Assists | -105 (DraftKings) | 2.0 Units

Portis has cashed the over on 24.5 P/R/A in eight of his last 10 games. As mentioned in his DFS spotlight, he tends to receive a few more minutes when Jrue Holiday is unavailable (Portis: 30+ minutes in 5-of-6 games w/ Holiday out this season). Given how productive Portis is when he’s on the court, that’s going to increase my confidence quite a bit with this prop. The Grizzlies’ second unit has also struggled defensively this season so Portis should be a big factor off the bench tonight.

Jalen Green OVER 22.5 Points | -104 (FanDuel) | 2.0 Units

We discussed how Green just seems to turn it on in home games. He’s averaging 25.3 PPG in 11 home games this season (compared to 19.4 PPG on the road) and Green has cleared the over on 22.5 points in five consecutive home games. PG Kyle Lowry is still regarded as a strong defender but he will be unavailable tonight so that adds a nice little bump for Green’s offensive upside.

PrizePicks Power Play ⚡

Here is a two-pick “Power Play” I’m liking for today's NBA action over on PrizePicks! Nothing is ever a guarantee to hit but I put my own money on these bets so I don't just lightly throw these out there without believing they'll cash! If it hits, it will return 3x the wager.

Lauri Markkanen MORE than 7.5 Rebounds

Jalen Green MORE than 21.5 Points

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That will wrap us up with today’s “Daily Dribble” edition! Once again, you can find me on Twitter or in LineStar chat @Ryan_Humphries. Good luck everyone!