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Top NBA DFS Plays & Prop Bets 12/16 | Treading Carefully On Friday's 10-Game Slate!
It’s a big NBA Friday with 10 games loaded onto this evening’s schedule! Let’s lock and load with some top DFS plays and player props to consider!
Written By: Ryan Humphries on Twitter & LineStar chat @Ryan_Humphries
Straight Locks🔒 | NBA Props w/ Shannon & Tyler!
DFS Main Slate Rundown 📰
Happy Friday! We hop back on the big slate grind with 10 games on deck this evening. Let’s have some fun and boost up the bankroll today!
Key Injury News:
Hawks: D. Murray - OUT, C. Capela - OUT, J. Collins - OUT
Hornets: G. Hayward - Questionable (expected to play in his first game since 11/23), D. Smith Jr. - OUT
Kings: K. Huerter - Questionable
Pistons: I. Livers - OUT
Magic: W. Carter Jr. - OUT, J. Suggs - OUT, C. Okeke - OUT, G. Harris - OUT
Celtics: M. Smart - Questionable, R. Williams - Questionable (plans to make his season debut)
Pacers: C. Duarte - Questionable
Cavs: D. Wade - OUT
Nets: S. Curry - Questionable, P. Mills - OUT
Raptors: OG Anunoby - OUT, P. Achiuwa - OUT, O. Porter Jr. - OUT
Warriors: S. Curry - OUT, K. Thompson - Questionable, A. Wiggins - OUT, D. Green - OUT
76ers: T. Maxey - OUT, D. House Jr. - Probable, F. Korkmaz - Questionable
Knicks: O. Toppin - OUT
Bulls: A. Dosunmu - Questionable
T-Wolves: K. Towns - OUT, D. Russell - Questionable, R. Gobert - Questionable, J. McLaughlin - OUT, T. Prince - OUT
Thunder: J. Robinson-Earl - OUT, D. Bazley - OUT, K. Williams - Questionable
Trailblazers: J. Hart - Probable, D. Eubanks - Probable, N. Little - OUT, T. Watford - Probable
Mavs: M. Kleber - OUT, J. Green - OUT
Nuggets: M. Porter Jr. - OUT
Lakers: A. Davis - Probable, L. James - Probable, W. Gabriel - OUT
Main Slate Match-Ups w/ Game Totals & Point Spreads
Note: NBA position designations are never going to perfectly align between the major DFS sites. For the purposes of these newsletters, positional designations will default to DraftKings.
💫 = Favorite Play
Point Guards/Shooting Guards to Consider 🏀
💫PG/SG James Harden, PHI | DK: $9.9k, FD: $10.3k | vs. GSW | Cash & GPP
There is a lot to like about Harden tonight but it doesn’t come without some risk. The Warriors remain the fastest-paced team in the NBA, so it’s a major pace-up spot for the Sixers (26th in pace). However, Golden State is extremely shorthanded -- no Curry, no Wiggins, no Draymond, and Klay is questionable. With that in mind, if this game doesn’t turn into an absolute blowout, Harden should continue to roll. Over his last three games, he’s putting up 22.7 PPG, 14.3 APG, and 6.7 RPG. Even if tonight's game does get somewhat out of hand, Harden may still end up playing 35+ minutes -- at least that is the assumption based on the Sixers’ last two games which ended in 18 and 20-point blowouts. Harden is also averaging +28.7% more FPPG at home this season.
💫PG LaMelo Ball, CHA | DK: $8k, FD: $8k | vs. ATL | GPP Preferred
Despite missing 11 games and playing in just his fourth game of the season, LaMelo Ball looked no worse for the wear in Wednesday’s game against Detroit. He ended up playing 34 minutes (the game did go into OT) and logged 23 points and 11 assists. It would seem as if he’s going to face little to no minutes restrictions and this game sets up as one of the best match-ups to target this evening. Charlotte is a three-point home favorite against Atlanta and these two teams are set up with the highest total on the slate (240.5 O/U), which is also one of the highest totals of the entire season.
PG/SG Bones Hyland, DEN | DK: $5.4k, FD: $5.7k | @ LAL | GPP Preferred
Hyland has been handling a bit more consistent run lately and has played at least 26 minutes in three of his last four. Hyland is a highly efficient player off of the Nuggets’ bench and has averaged 1.18 FPPM this season. So, it’s quite easy to see how he can return great value at his current DFS salaries if he pushes for 30-ish minutes. The Lakers’ reserves have been one of the worst defensive bench units in the league and rank 29th against opposing bench players. This game is also tied for the second-highest total on the slate (237.5 O/U) so there will be plenty of opportunities for Hyland to make a big impact.
Other Guards to Consider:
PG Luka Doncic, DAL | DK: $12.3k, FD: $12k | vs. POR | GPP Preferred
💫PG Trae Young, ATL | DK: $10k, FD: $9.8k | @ CHA | Cash & GPP
PG Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, OKC | DK: $9.7k, FD: $10.2k | vs. MIN | Cash & GPP
💫PG/SG Josh Giddey, OKC | DK: $7.2k, FD: $7.4k | vs. MIN | Cash & GPP
SG/SF Bogdan Bogdanovic, ATL | $6k, FD: $6k | @ CHA | Cash & GPP
PG/SG Donte DiVincenzo, GSW | DK: $5.7k, FD: $5.3k | @ PHI | GPP Preferred
Small Forwards/Power Forwards to Consider 🏀
💫PF Julius Randle, NYK | DK: $8.7k, FD: $8.3k | @ CHI | Cash & GPP
Randle has been on fire lately so we’ll look to ride the hot hand with this recommendation. He’s averaging an elite 1.54 FPPM across his last four games and just dropped 31 points, 13 rebounds, and seven assists (57.75 DKFP) on this middling Bulls defense two nights ago. Chicago may not have an answer for Randle once again tonight.
SF Luguentz Dort, OKC | DK: $5.2k, FD: $5.3k | vs. MIN | Cash & GPP
No one is ever going to be ecstatic about sliding Lu Dort into their lineups, but he’s been an affordable $5k DFS option all season, and he routinely returns 5x-7x value. OKC and MIN rank in the top five in pace this season so, to state the obvious, this game will boast the highest combined pace on the slate. He’ll typically settle as OKC’s third or fourth scoring option but his offensive upside is lifted due to some injuries that the Thunder are dealing with and the extra possessions to be had in this very uptempo game. For a $5k player, he’ll typically provide some solid peripheral stats as well.
PF/C Kevin Love, CLE | DK: $3.6k, FD: $4.4k | vs. IND | GPP/DK Preferred
Love’s minutes are far too unpredictable to trust him in a cash lineup but he is easily hitting season-low salaries, particularly on DraftKings where he’ll cost just $600 above the minimum. The Cavs’ bigs are all healthy so it may take someone like Jarrett Allen or Evan Mobley to get into a bit of foul trouble for Love to push for 20-25 minutes. But that is a possibility and Love has averaged 1.16 FPPM on the season so 20+ minutes would lead to instant value.
Other Forwards to Consider:
SF/SG Anthony Edwards, MIN | DK: $8.9k, FD: $8.8k | @ OKC | GPP Preferred
💫SF/SG Kelly Oubre Jr., CHA | DK: $7.5k, FD: $8k | vs. ATL | GPP Preferred
SF/PF Bojan Bogdanovic, DET | DK: $6.6k, FD: $6.1k | vs. SAC | GPP/FD Preferred
💫PF/C Jonathan Kuminga, GSW | DK: $4.9k, FD: $4.9k | @ PHI | Cash & GPP
PF/C Aleksej Pokusevski, OKC | DK: $4.1k, FD: $5.3k | vs. MIN | GPP/DK Preferred
SF/PF Patrick Williams, CHI | DK: $4k, FD: $4.5k | vs. NYK | Cash & GPP/DK Preferred
Centers to Consider 🏀
C Nikola Jokic, DEN | DK: $11.9k, FD: $12.2k | @ LAL | GPP Preferred
Back-to-back 80+ DKFP performances for the back-to-back MVP. It’s great to see Jokic put up these massive games that we know he is capable of producing at any given moment, but the Nuggets simply haven’t needed Jokic to shoulder the load as often as they have in the last couple of seasons. With that said, he clearly has the potential to break any slate on any given night. He’s averaging +24% FPPG in up-pace games this season and this game against the Lakers (2nd in pace) certainly fits that criterion. Perhaps there are “safer” spend-up options on this slate but you can rarely go wrong with Jokic in your GPP lineup(s).
💫C Onyeka Okongwu, ATL | DK: $4.7k, FD: $5.2k | @ CHA | Cash & GPP
The Hawks will be without Clint Capela and John Collins so that makes Okongwu one of the safest but most obvious plays on the slate. He should be locked into 28+ minutes and the Hornets have been one of the best teams to target with opposing bigs all season. Charlotte ranks 29th against centers over their last 20 games and is surrendering 38.73 FPPG to starting centers in that span.
Other Centers to Consider:
C Joel Embiid, PHI | DK: $11.5k, FD: $11.5k | vs. GSW | GPP Preferred
C Domantas Sabonis, SAC | DK: $9.6k, FD: $8.9k | @ DET | Cash & GPP
C Rudy Gobert, MIN | DK: $7.6k, FD: $8k | @ OKC | GPP Preferred (Note: Gobert is currently questionable)
💫C Mason Plumlee, CHA | DK: $6.1k, FD: $6.4k | vs. ATL | Cash & GPP
💫C Naz Reid, MIN | DK: $4k, FD: $4.5k | @ OKC | GPP Preferred (Excellent cash-safe play if Gobert is out)
C Mike Muscala, OKC | DK: $3.1k, FD: $3.5k | vs. MIN | GPP Preferred
NBA Player Props 📊
Player Prop or Bet | Odds | Unit Bet Size
James Harden OVER 2.5 Three-Pointers Made | -105 (Caesars) | 2.0 Units
This game may trend toward a blowout but I’ll happily take Harden to knock down at least three three-point shots. He has dropped at least three three-pointers in five consecutive games and has attempted 8.4 3PA/Gm in that stretch. The Warriors are allowing the 10th highest 3P% and the 12th most 3PM per game. At near even money, give me the over all day.
Jusuf Nurkic OVER 0.5 Blocks | -125 (Caesars) | 2.0 Units
These odds just stood out to me when I was sifting through the Props Edge+ tool. Nurkic has recorded at least one block in 10 of his last 11 games so the -125 odds seem a bit too generous if you ask me. The Mavs don’t allow many blocked shots, just 4.3 BLK/Gm (6th fewest), but opposing starting centers have averaged 1.2 BLK/Gm over the last 20 games against Dallas. One blocked shot for Nurk, and let’s cash this prop.
PrizePicks Power Play ⚡
Here is a two-pick “Power Play” I’m liking for today's NBA action over on PrizePicks! Nothing is ever a guarantee to hit but I put my own money on these bets so I don't just lightly throw these out there without believing they'll cash! If it hits, it will return 3x the wager.
James Harden MORE than 2.5 3-PT Made
Jusuf Nurkic MORE than 0.5 Blocked Shots
🆕 Props Edge+ 🆕
In LineStar’s ongoing mission to improve, innovate, and help you reel in some cash, we are introducing Props Edge+ for NBA – available for LineStar Premium users! This tool can help you find value and mispriced odds on player props from sportsbooks and, more specifically, for PrizePicks and UnderDog Fantasy!
Speaking of props, put the Props Edge+ tool to use by signing up for PrizePicks (Promo code: BETFULLY) or Underdog (Promo code: LINESTAR). You'll receive a 100% match on first deposits up to $100 PLUS a free two-month subscription to LineStar Premium. Many people may not realize that you can legally place prop bets in most states using UnderDog (or PrizePicks) – it’s called Pick'Em, and it’s incredibly easy.
That will wrap us up with today’s “Daily Dribble” edition! Once again, you can find me on Twitter or in LineStar chat @Ryan_Humphries. Good luck everyone!