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Top NBA DFS Plays & Prop Bets 12/18 | Traversing Monday's Hectic Slate!
Top DFS Plays & Props for Monday's NBA Action!
Written By: Ryan Humphries on Twitter & LineStar chat @Ryan_Humphries
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DFS Main Slate Rundown 📰
A busy NBA Monday awaits with 11 games on the board this evening! As you’ll see below, it’s a pretty hectic day for injuries so we’ll need to stay on our toes throughout the evening as news rolls in. Let’s waste no time and jump right into it! Best of luck!
Today’s Key Injuries
Clippers: M. Plumlee - OUT
Pacers: T. Haliburton - Questionable, M. Turner - Questionable, A. Nembhard - OUT, J. Smith - OUT
Bulls: Z. LaVine - OUT, A. Caruson - Questionable, T. Craig - Doubtful
76ers: J. Embiid - Questionable, M. Morris Sr. - Questionable
Rockets: T. Eason - Probable, A. Thompson - OUT
Cavaliers: D. Garland - OUT, E. Mobley - OUT
Hornets: L. Ball - OUT, T. Rozier - Probable, M. Bridges - Questionable, G. Hayward - Questionable, M. Williams - Doubtful, PJ Washington - Questionable
Raptors: None
Pistons: J. Duren - OUT, I. Stewart - OUT, K. Hayes - Questionable
Hawks: B. Bogdanovic - Questionable, C. Capela - Questionable, D. Hunter - Questionable, J. Johnson - OUT
Timberwolves: A. Edwards - Questionable, J. McDaniels - Questionable
Heat: K. Lowry - OUT
Timberwolves: J. Morant - OUT (final suspension-related game - expected to debut tomorrow), M. Smart - OUT, D. Rose - OUT, B. Biyombo - Doubtful, L. Kennard - OUT
Thunder: None
Nets: B. Simmons - OUT, L. Walker IV - OUT, D. Smith Jr. - OUT
Jazz: J. Collins - Questionable, J. Clarkson - OUT, K. George - OUT, O. Yurtseven - OUT
Mavericks: L. Doncic - Probable, K. Irving - OUT, D. Lively II - OUT, J. Green - OUT, M. Kleber - OUT, R. Holmes - Questionable
Nuggets: J. Murray - Probable, A. Gordon - Probable, K. Caldwell-Pope - Questionable
Wizards: D. Wright - OUT, L. Shamet - OUT, D. Gallinari - OUT
Kings: D. Fox - Questionable
Knicks: M. Robinson - OUT
Lakers: A. David - Questionable, L. James - Questionable, D. Russell - Probable, C. Wood - Questionable, G. Vincent - OUT, J. Vanderbilt - Probable
Main Slate Match-Ups w/ Game Totals & Point Spreads
Top DraftKings & FanDuel DFS Plays
Note: NBA position designations are never going to perfectly align between the major DFS sites. For the purposes of these newsletters, positional designations will default to DraftKings.
Point Guards/Shooting Guards to Consider 🏀
PG Trae Young, ATL | DK: $10k, FD: $10.1k | vs. DET
Pending a blowout (ATL -12), Trae Young will find himself in a terrific spot today. The Pistons are a top-tier match-up as they rank 26th in DEFRTG, 7th in pace, and 29th versus starting point guards (L20Games). Young has been lights out recently, scoring 35+ real points and at least 59.5 DKFP over his last three games. Those three performances came against the Raptors (twice) and Cavaliers -- which are much less fantasy-friendly match-ups than these Pistons that Young and the Hawks will take on at home this evening. The Hawks also rank 2nd on the slate with a 129.3 implied team total. If they meet or exceed expectations, Young is going to be a major part of that success.
PG/SG Collin Sexton, UTA | DK: $7k, FD: $6.3k | vs. BKN
Now that he’s started the last three games due to Jazz backcourt injuries (J. Clarkson & K. George), Sexton’s DFS salaries have seen a marginal bump. However, he’s still extremely playable at his current price tags, especially on FanDuel at $6,300. One these last three starts, Sexton is averaging 1.22 FPPM, 27.0 PPG, and 38.4 DKFP/36.9 FDFP per game. He’s also been more productive on a per-minute basis at home and this will be just his second home start this season. Consider Sexton to be a rock-solid guard selection out of the mid-range.
PG Jacob Gilyard, MEM | DK: $3.8k, FD: $3.6k | @ OKC
There’s not much in the way of standout guard value, pending further injury news, but Jacob Gilyard is dirt cheap and should make his way into the starting lineup tonight. The Grizzlies will get Ja Morant (suspension) back in action tomorrow but, for now, if we’re including Morant, they’re down four of the top five guards (J. Morant, M. Smart, D. Rose, L. Kennard). Gilyard has started seven games this season, but it has produced some lackluster results. However, the one game he started and played more than 24 minutes (Nov. 10th vs. UTA), he posted a respectable 34.0 DKFP/31.8 FDFP across 34 minutes. If Gilyard does not crack the starting lineup, he’ll be much more difficult to trust.
Other Guards to Consider
PG Luka Doncic, DAL | DK: $12.1k, FD: $12.6k | @ DEN
PG Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, OKC | DK: $10.5k, FD: $11.5k | vs. MEM
PG De’Aaron Fox, SAC | DK: $9.6k, FD: $10k | vs. WAS (Fox is currently questionable)
PG James Harden, LAC | DK: $8.5k, FD: $8.8k | @ IND
PG Coby White, CHI | DK: $7.8k, FD: $8.1k | @ PHI
PG/SG Spencer Dinwiddie, BKN | DK: $7.5k, FD: $7.2k | @ UTA
PG/SG Malik Monk, SAC | DK: $6.8k, FD: $6.2k | vs. WAS (Preferred if Fox is out)
PG TJ McConnell, IND | DK: $6.3k, FD: $5.8k | vs. LAC (Only if Haliburton is out)
PG/SG Kris Dunn, UTA | DK: $5.3k, FD: $4.6k | vs, BKN (Preferred if starting again)
Small Forwards/Power Forwards to Consider 🏀
SF/PF Kawhi Leonard, LAC | DK: $8.6k, FD: $9.5k | @ IND
Kawhi is priced appropriately, and certainly in play, on FanDuel. But, he’s a standout play on DraftKings where he remains under $9k. Kawhi is posting some vintage performances lately and, over his last five games, he’s averaging an impressive 1.47 FPPM and 52.2 DKFP/51.5 FDFP per game. He’ll now get a dream match-up against the Pacers (1st in pace, 28th in DEFRTG) who have ranked dead last against starting PFs over their last 20 games. Given the way he’s been playing, I’d be shocked if Leonard fails in this spot.
SF/PF Bojan Bogdanovic, DET | DK: $6.7k, FD: $6.9k | @ ATL
I’m finding it very difficult to love any mid-range forward option on this slate but we’ll view Bojan Bogdanovic as a playable option. Due to his heavy reliance on pure scoring, he can be a volatile DFS investment. That said, he’s putting up 15-20 shots per game, including 7.1 3PA/gm, and the Hawks are a plus match-up thanks to their fast pace (4th in pace) and poor defense (27th in DEFRTG). They also rank 25th versus opposing PFs (L20Games). Bogdanovic will get a moderate usage bump with Jalen Duren and Isaiah Stewart both out tonight, and he could see a further usage increase if Killian Hayes (illness/questionable) were to sit out.
SF Vince Williams Jr., MEM | DK: $4.6k, FD: $4.6k | @ OKC
We’ll go back to the depleted Grizzlies for value. Williams has started the previous two games, both against the Rockets, and he averaged a respectable 0.94 FPPM across 28 and 30 minutes played. The Rockets (2nd in DEFRTG) have been a sneaky good defensive team this season so those two starts from Williams came against some tough competition. The Thunder (6th in DEFRTG) boasts some strong defensive play in their own right, but they also play at a much faster pace than the Rockets (OKC: 6th in pace, HOU: 28th in pace). So, this should be a marginally better match-up for Williams and, at the time of this writing, he sets up as one of the better value forwards on the slate (assuming he continues to start).
Other Forwards to Consider
SF/PF LeBron James, LAL | DK: $10.3k, FD: $10k | vs. NYK (LeBron is currently questionable)
PF/C Karl-Anthony Towns, MIN | DK: $9k, FD: $9k | @ MIA (Boost if A. Edwards sits)
SF/SG Paul George, LAC | DK: $8.1k, FD: $8.7k | @ IND
PF Keegan Murray, SAC | DK: $7k, FD: $6.5k | vs. WAS (Only if Fox is out)
PF Aaron Gordon, DEN | DK: $6.4k, FD: $6.3k | vs. DAL
SF/PF Tari Eason, HOU | DK: $6k, FD: $6.2k | @ CLE
SF Derrick Jones Jr., DAL | DK: $5.3k, FD: $5.6k | @ DEN
Centers to Consider 🏀
C Joel Embiid, PHI | DK: $11.5k, FD: $12.8k | vs. CHI
Note: Monitor Embiid’s status as he is officially questionable to play.
Assuming Embiid plays tonight, we have to give him some consideration. He’s averaging an otherworldly 2.15 FPPM and 69.6 DKFP per game over his last six starts. The problem is that most of these games have been 76ers blowout wins, so Embiid has routinely sat out entire fourth quarters. But he’s simply an unstoppable force right now and is hitting value despite only playing three quarters. If the Bulls (+10) can keep things close and force Embiid to play in the fourth quarter, we could see another one of those crazy 80+ FP performances tonight.
C Xavier Tillman, MEM | DK: $4.8k, FD: $4.3k | @ OKC
In a running theme, we land back on the Grizzlies for value. Center Bismack Biyombo (back) is doubtful to play tonight so Tillman should claim a spot with the starters. He’s been almost an afterthought in the rotation recently and has dealt with some injuries throughout the season as well. But he is averaging 0.98 FPPM as a starter this season so, should he play 30+ minutes, he’ll have a great chance at returning value on these sub-$5k DFS price tags.
Other Centers to Consider
C Nikola Jokic, DEN | DK: $11.7k, FD: $12.5k | vs. DAL
C Domantas Sabonis, SAC | DK: $9.8k, FD: $10.2k | vs. WAS
C Jarrett Allen, CLE | DK: $7.4k, FD: $7.3k | vs. HOU
C Clint Capela, ATL | DK: $6.7k, FD: $6.8k | vs. DET (Capela is currently questionable)
PF/C Onyeka Okongwu, ATL | DK: $6.3k, FD: $6.2k | vs. DET (Only if Capela is out)
C Daniel Gafford, WAS | DK: $6k, FD: $6.3k | @ SAC
C Isaiah Jackson, IND | DK: $5k, FD: $4.7k | vs. LAC (Preferred if M. Turner is out)
C Marvin Bagley III, DET | DK: $4.9k, FD: $5k | @ ATL
PrizePicks NBA Power Play ⚡
Here is a two-pick “Power Play” I’m liking for today's NBA action over on PrizePicks! Nothing is ever a guarantee to hit but I put my own money on these bets so I don't just lightly throw these out there without believing they'll cash! If it hits, it will return 3x the wager.
No PrizePicks plays from me today but keep an eye out for Tyler & Shannon’s NBA props video over on the LineStar YouTube channel!
🔥 Props AI 🔥
In LineStar’s ongoing mission to improve, innovate, and help you reel in some cash, we are introducing Props AI for NBA – available for LineStar Premium users! This tool can help you find value and mispriced odds on player props from sportsbooks and, more specifically, for PrizePicks and UnderDog Fantasy!
Speaking of props, put the Props AI tool to use by signing up for PrizePicks (Promo code: BETFULLY) or Underdog (Promo code: LINESTAR). You'll receive a 100% match on first deposits up to $100 PLUS a free two-month subscription to LineStar Premium. Many people may not realize that you can legally place prop bets in most states using UnderDog (or PrizePicks) – it’s called Pick'Em, and it’s incredibly easy.
That will wrap us up with today’s “Daily Dribble” edition! Once again, you can find me on Twitter or in LineStar chat @Ryan_Humphries. Good luck everyone!