Written By: Ryan Humphries on Twitter & LineStar chat @Ryan_Humphries

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NBA DFS & Props Shows w/ Shannon & Tyler!

Keep an eye out for Tyler’s DFS video that should be posted on the LineStar YouTube page shortly after you receive this newsletter!

DFS Main Slate Rundown 📰

It’s TNT Tuesday so a small four-game slate will land on the schedule today. These smaller slates can always be a bit tricky but, if you ask me, I’ll take a small four-gamer over one of those chaotic 13+ game slates any day of the week! Among the headlines today -- Ja Morant makes his season debut for the Grizzlies after serving a 25-game suspension, rookie sensation Victor Wembanyama will miss his second game of the season and the Bucks are massive 17-point home favorites over the Spurs, and the Suns’ “Big Three” is whittled back down to the “Big Two” with Bradley Beal (ankle) set to miss a couple of weeks. Plenty of scoring is expected on this slate with each game owning at least a 229 over/under. However, the blowout risk is real with three of the four games having a spread of at least seven points. This should be an interesting little slate and there are only a few key injuries that we’ll need to keep track of today. Best of luck!

Today’s Key Injuries

Grizzlies: (Ja Morant making season debut) M. Smart - OUT, D. Rose - OUT, B. Biyombo - Questionable, L. Kennard - Questionable

Pelicans: Z. Williamson - Questionable, N. Marshall - Probable, M. Ryan - OUT, L. Nance Jr. - OUT

Spurs: V. Wembanyama - OUT

Bucks: M. Beasley - Probable, J. Crowder - OUT

Suns: B. Beal - OUT, G. Allen - Probable, J. Okogie - OUT

Trailblazers: S. Sharpe - Questionable

Celtics: K. Porzingis - Questionable, L. Kornet - OUT

Warriors: C. Paul - Questionable, D. Green - OUT, G. Payton II - OUT

Main Slate Match-Ups w/ Game Totals & Point Spreads

Top DraftKings & FanDuel DFS Plays

Note: NBA position designations are never going to perfectly align between the major DFS sites. For the purposes of these newsletters, positional designations will default to DraftKings.

Point Guards/Shooting Guards to Consider 🏀

PG Ja Morant, MEM | DK: $9.3k, FD: $9.5k | @ NOP

Do we go to Ja Morant right out of the gates? He’s been able to practice with the team as usual and it’s not as if he’s been out due to injury. So, if we’re working under the assumption that he’ll have no limitations or restrictions in his first game of the season, then we could be getting a bargain on a player that was typically priced above $10k for most of last season. It’s also worth pointing out that Morant had a monster 38.2% usage rate with Dillon Brooks (now with the Rockets) off the floor last season. A road match-up with the Pelicans who rank 3rd versus starting PGs L20Games is not an ideal spot for Morant’s season debut. The Grizzlies also rank last on the slate with a 111 implied team total. All things considered, this will be a risk vs. reward play and there’s no telling how easily Morant will be able to shake off the rust in his first game back, but the upside is certainly there.

PG/SG Devin Vassell, SAS | DK: $6.8k, FD: $6.5k | @ MIL

The likely blowout factor casts a dark shadow over what would otherwise be a very fantasy-friendly atmosphere (249.5 over/under!). If the Spurs can hang around on the scoreboard, Vassell will likely be a key reason why. No other Spurs player has handled a higher usage increase (+4.3%) with Victor Wembanyama (ankle/out) off the floor this season. The Bucks aren’t particularly stout defensively (20th DEFRTG) and they’re best attacked via opposing backcourts. Both teams in this game rank top five in pace, so there will be plenty of possessions. If Vassell ends up playing mid-30s minutes, he’ll have a wide pathway to returning value tonight.

PG/SG Brandin Podziemski, GSW | DK: $6.1k, FD: $6.2k | vs. POR

Pending further injury news, there are very few value guards that truly stand out on this slate. Podziemski isn’t dirt cheap, but he’s certainly an affordable option out of the low-$6k range on both sites. He has started in each of the last three games with Andrew Wiggins moving to the bench and Draymond Green being suspended. Podziemski has played at least 32 minutes in each of those three starts. Spanning his last eight games, he’s averaging a hair under an FPPM. Podziemski will not be a high-usage player while sharing the court with Stephen Curry and Klay Thompson, but he’s a decent bet to put up around a dozen shots and he’s sinking over 40% of his threes this season. Podziemski has also contributed nicely in other non-scoring areas. Over his three starts, he’s posting 5.7 RPG, 4.0 APG, and 3.0 STL+BLK/gm. The floor isn’t the best but he brings 40+ FP upside to lineups at a fair price tonight.

Other Guards to Consider

PG Damian Lillard, MIL | DK: $9.2k, FD: $9.3k | vs. SAS

PG/SG Anfernee Simons, POR | DK: $7.5k, FD: $7.9k | vs. PHX

PG CJ McCollum, NOP | DK: $7.3k, FD: $7.7k | vs. MEM

SG/SF Klay Thompson, GSW | DK: $6.5k, FD: $6.6k | vs. BOS

SG/SF Trey Murphy III, NOP | DK: $5.8k, FD: $5.5k | vs. MEM (Boost if Zion sits)

SG/SF Grayson Allen, PHX | DK: $5.5k, FD: $5.7k | @ POR

PG/SG Malaki Branham, SAS | DK: $5k, FD: $5k | @ MIL

PG Tre Jones, SAS | DK: $4.7k, FD: $4.7k | @ MIL

PG Jose Alvarado, NOP | DK: $4.6k, FD: $4.3k | vs. MEM

Small Forwards/Power Forwards to Consider 🏀

PF/C Giannis Antetokounmpo, MIL | DK: $11k, FD: $11.9k | vs. SAS

How we handle the Bucks players will have a significant impact on this slate, to say the least. We rarely see a spread (MIL -17) this extreme in the NBA and the risk of the main Bucks starters playing limited minutes due to a blowout is a real concern. That said, even if he doesn’t play his full complement of minutes, Giannis could put up a monster performance. The Spurs, who are already 24th in DEFRTG, take a massive defensive hit with Wembanyama off the floor and I don’t see any healthy player on this Spurs roster that will have an answer for Giannis. On DraftKings, it does help that Giannis is at his lowest price point since late November. The Bucks have, by far, the highest implied team total (133 points) today and if we can get around 32 minutes out of the Greek Freak tonight, that could be plenty of time for him to produce an optimal lineup score.

SF/SG Jaylen Brown, BOS | DK: $7.7k, FD: $8k | @ GSW

This might be the first spotlight I’ve given Jaylen Brown this season. It’s not as if he’s playing poorly (22.3 PPG, 4.7 RPG, 3.5 APG, 1.9 STL+BLK/gm) but he’s generally giving you around a 5x return on his DFS salaries and not much more. However, we have to lower expectations a bit when it comes to these small slates, and 5x value wouldn’t be the worst thing today. And, for what it’s worth, Brown has been putting up some of his better fantasy performances lately. He has scored at least 46.75 DKFP/46.8 FDFP in three of his last eight games. The Warriors have ranked mid-pack defensively and offer a nice pace-up boost for the Celtics. This game may also possess the most competitive atmosphere on the slate based on the 5.5-point spread. Brown would also see a moderate usage bump if Kristaps Porzingis (calf/questionable) were to miss tonight’s contest.

SF Doug McDermott, SAS | DK: $3.4k, FD: $3.6k | @ MIL

This is a real deep dive that may not be overly necessary if safer value opens up later in the day. There will be some additional forward minutes and usage that should trickle down with Wembanyama on the sidelines. It’s tough to gauge how much a guy like McDermott could benefit since he was also out on December 1st when Wemby sat out for the first time this season. McDermott is only averaging 0.72 FPPM on the season but he could pick up some added minutes off the bench due to either Wemby’s absence or a blowout. If we can squeeze 20 fantasy points out of McDermott while opening up salary for other positions, I believe we’d be happy with that today.

Other Forwards to Consider

PF Kevin Durant, PHX | DK: $9.6k, FD: $10k | @ POR

SF/PF Jayson Tatum, BOS | DK: $9.5k, FD: $9.8k | @ GSW

PF/C Zion Williamson, NOP | DK: $7.9k, FD: $7.9k | vs. MEM (Zion is currently questionable)

PF Jerami Grant, POR | DK: $7.1k, FD: $7.3k | vs. PHX

SF/PF Keldon Johnson, SAS | DK: $6.9k, FD: $7k | @ MIL

SF/SG Khris Middleton, MIL | DK: $6.4k, FD: $6.7k | vs. SAS

SF/PF Jonathan Kuminga, GSW | DK: $5.4k, FD: $5.3k | vs. BOS

PF/C Bobby Portis, MIL | DK: $5.3k, FD: $5.6k | vs. SAS

PF Naji Marshall, NOP | DK: $4.2k, FD: $4.4k | vs. MEM (Boost if Zion sits)

Centers to Consider 🏀

C Jusuf Nurkic, PHX | DK: $7.4k, FD: $7.8k | @ POR

Nurk returns to Portland for the first time since being traded away to the Suns, so there could be a slight narrative to ride if ya want. But, narratives aside, he’s been playing well as of late. Nurkic has logged at least 30 minutes in each of the previous five games and, in that span, he’s averaging 1.40 FPPM and 42.6 DKFP/41.3 FDFP. He went up against Portland (in Phoenix) back on November 21st and notched an 18-point, 12-rebound double-double while scoring 44.0 DKFP/44.4 FDFP. Targeting bigs against the Trailblazers has been a profitable venture throughout the season so we won’t stop now! The Blazers have allowed the 3rd most points in the paint per game and rank 24th in rebounding percentage.

C Zach Collins, SAS | DK: $4.9k, FD: $5.1k | @ MIL

Collins is one of the more obvious plays on the slate and will be tough to fade at his current price points. The Spurs have been playing Wembanyama as their starting center for the previous five games, which has relegated Collins to a bench role. With Wemby out, Collins should slide back into the starting rotation. He’s averaging exactly 1.00 FPPM over his last 20 games as a starter so, assuming he plays 30+ minutes (no guarantee, given the blowout risk), it’s quite easy to see how Collins could hit 6x value or better today. The Bucks are far from a lockdown defense against opposing centers and they’re allowing 36.8 DKFP/37.3 FDFP per game to starting centers over their last 20 games.

Other Centers to Consider

C Jonas Valanciunas, NOP | DK: $7.2k, FD: $8k | vs. MEM (DK Preferred)

C Brook Lopez, MIL | DK: $6.2k, FD: $6.8k | vs. SAS

C Sandro Mamukelashvili, SAS | DK: $3k, FD: $3.5k | @ MIL (Should serve as the backup center with no Wemby tonight and Charles Bassey done for the season)

PrizePicks NBA Power Play ⚡

Here is a two-pick “Power Play” I’m liking for today's NBA action over on PrizePicks! Nothing is ever a guarantee to hit but I put my own money on these bets so I don't just lightly throw these out there without believing they'll cash! If it hits, it will return 3x the wager.

Brook Lopez MORE than 16.5 Fantasy Score (1st Half)

Jusuf Nurkic MORE than 11.5 Rebounds

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That will wrap us up with today’s “Daily Dribble” edition! Once again, you can find me on Twitter or in LineStar chat @Ryan_Humphries. Good luck everyone!