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Top NBA DFS Plays & Prop Bets 12/2 | Smashing the First Huge December Slate
It’s a busy NBA Friday ahead with 11 games on the schedule! Let’s buckle down and try to locate the best DFS plays and some player props to key in on tonight!
Written By: Ryan Humphries on Twitter & LineStar chat @Ryan_Humphries
DFS Main Slate Rundown 📰
I know I’m starting to sound like a broken record here but whoever is in charge of the NBA schedule needs to be updating their resume. How are ya gonna make us go from a 13-game slate on Wednesday to a one-game slate on Thursday to an 11-game slate on Friday?! I know Tuesdays and Thursdays are always when many NBA teams get some time off but how about a liiiiiiiittle more balance?!
Alright, enough complaining. You know the deal… a big slate equals a long list of injury news to highlight and take into account so let’s get it! And shout out to the Miami Heat for making this injury rundown a mess every single day. Best of luck!
Today’s Key Injuries:
Wizards: R. Hachimura - OUT, D. Wright - OUT
Hornets: L. Ball - OUT, G. Hayward - OUT, D. Smith Jr. - OUT
Heat: J. Butler - Probable, T. Herro - Probable, M. Strus - Probable, N. Jovic - Questionable, H. Highsmith - Probable, D. Dedmon - Questionable, D. Robinson - Probable, G. Vincent - Probable
Magic: W. Carter Jr. - OUT, J. Suggs - OUT, M. Bamba - Questionable, C. Okeke - OUT, G. Harris - OUT
Cavs: J. Allen - OUT, K. Love - Questionable, L. Stevens - Questionable
Nuggets: J. Murray - Probable, M. Porter Jr. - OUT, J. Green - DOUBTFUL
Hawks: T. Young - Questionable, C. Capela - Questionable, J. Collins - OUT, B. Bogdanovic - Questionable (would be season debut), D. Hunter - OUT, J. Johnson - Questionable, J. Holiday - OUT, F. Kaminsky - Questionable, T. Forrest - OUT
Lakers: A. Davis - Probable, L. James - Probable, L. Walker IV - Probable, D. Schroder - OUT
Bucks: K. Middleton - Probable (making season debut)
Raptors: P. Achiuwa - OUT, O. Porter Jr. - OUT
Nets: B. Simmons - OUT, Y. Watanabe - OUT
76ers: J. Harden - OUT, T. Maxey - OUT, T. Harris - Questionable
Grizzlies: D. Bane - OUT, J. LaRavia - DOUBTFUL
Pelicans: B. Ingram - OUT, CJ McCollum - Probable, H. Jones - OUT, N. Marshall - Probable
Spurs: J. Poeltl - OUT, J. Sochan - OUT, J. Richardson - DOUBTFUL, D. McDermott - DOUBTFUL, R. Langford - Probable
Pacers: T. Haliburton - Questionable, C. Duarte - OUT
Jazz: M. Conley - OUT
Rockets: J. Tate - Questionable
Suns: C. Paul - OUT, C. Johnson - OUT, T. Craig - OUT
Main Slate Match-Ups w/ Game Totals & Point Spreads
Note: NBA position designations are never going to perfectly align between the major DFS sites. For the purposes of these newsletters, positional designations will default to DraftKings.
💫 = Favorite Play
Point Guards/Shooting Guards to Consider 🏀
PG/SG Dejounte Murray, ATL | DK: $8.8k, FD: $8.8k | vs. DEN GPP Preferred (If Trae Young sits)
Some big injury news to monitor leading up to tip-off surrounds the availability of Trae Young, who was a late “questionable” addition to the injury report today. If Young is out, that could push Dejounte Murray into elite territory. Young has only missed one game this season (Nov. 7th vs. MIL). In that game, Murray flirted with a triple-double while pouring in 25 points, 11 assists, eight rebounds, and three steals. It was a performance that earned him 59.0 DKFP/57.1 FDFP. Murray has handled a +5.1% usage boost with Young off the court this season, and his assist rate also sees a nice increase.
💫SG Zach LaVine, CHI | DK: $7.2k, FD: $7.3k | @ GSW | Cash & GPP
You have to love the level of consistency that LaVine has provided in DFS lineups. He has scored between 34.25 DKFP and 44.75 DKFP in nine of his last 10 games so you’re getting a 5x to 6x floor out of him on a near-nightly basis. LaVine is averaging 1.04 FPPM while playing 34.1 Min/Gm, and he has been a bit more productive in road games this season (+10.5% FPPG on the road). Both of these teams rank inside the top 10 in pace (CHI: 9th, GSW: 2nd) so we can expect plenty of shots and peripheral stats to go around here. Barring a blowout or injury, LaVine sets up as a comfortable late-night play out of the low-$7k range on both sites. And while it hasn’t been on display yet this season, we know LaVine has the type of ceiling that can return a 50+ FP score.
💫PG/SG Collin Sexton, UTA | DK: $5.5k, FD: $5.1k | vs. IND | Cash & GPP
The Pacers remain an elite match-up for opposing players thanks to their fast pace (3rd in pace) and suspect defense (15th in defensive efficiency). Sexton has been a steady source of value ever since Mike Conley (leg) has been sidelined. Over his last five starts, Sexton is averaging 17.6 PPG, 7.2 APG, and 32.7 DKFPPG. No other game on the slate has a higher total (239 O/U) or a faster combined pace (207.8) than this Jazz vs. Pacers showdown. Given his super affordable $5k salaries, Sexton remains a strong option in all DFS formats tonight.
Other Guards to Consider:
PG Ja Morant, MEM | DK: $10.8k, FD: $9.9k | vs. PHI | GPP/FD Preferred
PG/SG Tyler Herro, MIA | DK: $7.3k, FD: $7.4k | @ BOS | GPP Preferred
💫PG/SG Jordan Clarkson, UTA | DK: $7.1k, FD: $6.6k | vs. IND | Cash & GPP
PG TJ McConnell, IND | DK: $3.8k, FD: $4.2k | @ UTA | GPP Preferred (Cash play if T. Haliburton sits)
PG/SG A. Dosunmu, CHI | DK: $3.7k, FD: $4.4k | @ GSW | GPP/DK Preferred
Small Forwards/Power Forwards to Consider 🏀
PF/C Pascal Siakam, TOR | DK: $9.3k, FD: $9.4k | @ BKN | GPP Preferred
Before missing most of November with a right adductor strain, Siakam was posting career-high offensive usage and assist numbers. In 11 games this season, he is averaging nearly a triple-double with 24.0 PPG (28.8% USG%), 9.2 RPG, and 7.1 APG to go along with 1.5 STL+BLK/Gm. Siakam has been solid in his two games since returning from that injury but perhaps now that he has shaken off a little rust, he may get back to posting those 50+ FP type of games that we saw out of him before he got hurt. Siakam played against Brooklyn in his second game of the season and put up a 37-point, 12-rebound, 11-assist triple-double (72.5 DKFP/64.9 FDFP) so we know this is a match-up that he could go wild in if he plays those minutes in the upper-30s.
💫PF Zion Williamson, NOP | DK: $9k, FD: $8.9k | @ SAS | Cash & GPP
Zion’s last two games have resulted in him draining 23-of-33 shots (69.9% FG%) and combining for 56 points, 18 rebounds, 13 assists, five blocks, and five steals. He also shot 10-of-12 (83.3%) from the charity stripe in those two games. That’s stuffing the entire stat sheet and it earned him fantasy point totals of 51.0 DKFP and 64.5 DKFP. He has also played 37 and 35 minutes in his last two games which is always going to be a major key to unlocking his upside. The Pelicans are expected to have CJ McCollum back in action tonight but Brandon Ingram remains sidelined along with Herbert Jones. Zion will continue to handle a major role against the Spurs, who rank dead last in defensive efficiency and allow the second-most PPG in the paint.
SF/SG Joe Harris, BKN | DK: $4k, FD: $4.8k | vs. TOR | GPP/DK Preferred
Harris has played 36+ minutes in back-to-back games and after struggling from beyond the arc for much of the season (33.6% 3P%), it seems as if he may be hitting his groove after going 4-for-6 from deep in his last game. Harris is heavily dependent on three-point shooting so he’ll need to continue sinking those threes if he wants to return some GPP-winning upside today. I like his chances of continued three-point success against Toronto, who is allowing the third-highest opponent three-point percentage in the NBA (41.9% 3P%).
Other Forwards to Consider:
PF/C Giannis Antetokounmpo, MIL | DK: $12.3k, FD: $12k | vs. LAL | GPP Preferred
SF/PF Jayson Tatum, BOS | DK: $10.9k, FD: $10.8k | vs. MIA | Cash & GPP
💫SF/PF DeMar DeRozan, CHI | DK: $8.3k, FD: $8.6k | @ GSW | Cash & GPP
SF/SG Jaylen Brown, BOS | DK: $8k, FD: $8.1k | vs. MIA | Cash & GPP
💫PF Aaron Gordon, DEN | DK: $6.2k, FD: $6.3k | @ ATL | Cash & GPP
SF/PG Bruce Brown, DEN | DK: $5.9k, FD: $6.1k | @ ATL | GPP Preferred
SF Trey Murphy III, NOP | DK: $5.7k, FD: $5.7k | @ SAS | Cash & GPP
SF/SG AJ Griffin, ATL | DK: $4.5k, FD: $4k | vs. DEN | GPP Preferred
Centers to Consider 🏀
C Kristaps Porzingis, WAS | DK: $8.7k, FD: $9.1k | @ CHA | GPP Preferred
Chasing huge Porzingis performances has been a regrettable decision this season but he has shown what kind of insane upside he brings to DFS lineups in his last two games where he put up 58.25 DKFP against the Nets and 63.0 DKFP against the T-Wolves. The match-up quite literally does not get any better as the Hornets have ranked dead last against opposing centers this season. His inconsistency makes him hard to trust in cash lineups but he’s an awesome target for GPPs.
💫C Kelly Olynyk, UTA | DK: $5.8k, FD: $6k | vs. IND | Cash & GPP
Olynyk has played at least 32 minutes in seven consecutive contests and has averaged 0.98 FPPM this season. By doing some quick math, you can see why he should be a fairly safe center option to target out of the mid-range. The Pacers are giving up 38.1 FPPG to starting centers this season and, as discussed earlier, this game's high-scoring and fast-paced environment remains one of the strongest to target on this slate.
Other Centers to Consider:
C Myles Turner, IND | DK: $7.3k, FD: $7.9k | @ UTA | GPP Preferred
PF/C Evan Mobley, CLE | DK: $7k, FD: $7.2k | @ ORL | GPP Preferred
💫C Nicolas Claxton, BKN | DK: $6k, FD: $6.7k | vs. TOR | Cash & GPP
C Zach Collins, SAS | DK: $4.9k, FD: $5.6k | vs. NOP | GPP/DK Preferred
C Onyeka Okungwu, ATL | DK: $4.2k, FD: $4.4k | vs. DEN | GPP Preferred (Cash play if starting)
NBA Player Props 📊
Player Prop or Bet | Odds | Unit Bet Size
Note: I've forgotten to get together the prop bet "transparency report" the last couple of Fridays. It usually takes some time to make sure everything is accurate and I want to get today's newsletter out ASAP, so I'll make a note to include it in Monday's newsletter!
Collin Sexton OVER 4.5 Assists | -150 (PointsBet) | 2.5 Units
The over on Sexton’s assists prop looks very enticing tonight. He has hit the over on this in five consecutive games while averaging 7.2 APG in place of Mike Conley in the starting lineup. The Jazz own a massive 121.5 implied point total against the Pacers tonight so we can count on Sexton to facilitate at least five made shots in this high-scoring game environment.
Zach LaVine OVER 4.5 Assists | -105 (PointsBet) | 2.0 Units
We’ll take another over on a 4.5 assists prop -- this time with Zach LaVine. He has managed to dish out at least five assists in five consecutive games and in seven of his last 10. Now, in six of those seven games where he hit the over, he just barely did it by recording exactly five assists, so it isn’t as if LaVine is routinely sailing past this over on this prop. With that said, the Warriors do push the tempo (2nd in pace) which leads to an above-average amount of possessions. The Warriors are also allowing 7.4 assists/gm to opposing shooting guards so let’s bank on another 5+ assist night out of LaVine at near-even money odds.
PrizePicks Two-Pick Power Play ⚡
Here is a two-pick “Power Play” I’m liking for today's NBA action over on PrizePicks! Nothing is ever a guarantee to hit but I put my own money on these bets so I don't just lightly throw these out there without believing they'll cash! If it hits, it will return 3x the wager.
Collin Sexton MORE than 5.0 Assists
Zach LaVine MORE than 4.5 Assists
🆕 Props Edge+ 🆕
In LineStar’s ongoing mission to improve, innovate, and help you reel in some cash, we are introducing Props Edge+ for NBA – available for LineStar Premium users! This tool can help you find value and mispriced odds on player props from sportsbooks and, more specifically, for PrizePicks and UnderDog Fantasy!
Speaking of props, put the Props Edge+ tool to use by signing up for PrizePicks (Promo code: BETFULLY) or Underdog (Promo code: LINESTAR). You'll receive a 100% match on first deposits up to $100 PLUS a free two-month subscription to LineStar Premium. Many people may not realize that you can legally place prop bets in most states using UnderDog (or PrizePicks) – it’s called Pick'Em, and it’s incredibly easy.
That will wrap us up with today’s “Daily Dribble” edition! Once again, you can find me on Twitter or in LineStar chat @Ryan_Humphries. Good luck everyone!