Top NBA DFS Plays & Prop Bets 12/20 | Navigating Tuesday's Tricky Five-Game Slate!

NBA Tuesday provides us with a five-game slate! Time to lock in on some top DFS plays and props!

Written By: Ryan Humphries on Twitter & LineStar chat @Ryan_Humphries

Straight Locks🔒 | NBA Props w/ Shannon!

DFS Main Slate Rundown 📰

I hope everyone is having a great holiday season as we close in on Christmas weekend! We’ll have a modest five-game slate to dive into this Tuesday evening. Surprise, surprise -- there are significant injury impacts across the board today. That will at least open up some solid value, which is always a big hurdle to clear on these smaller slates. But it will also introduce some further headaches when it comes to overall roster construction. Let’s see if we can crack the code on this one and keep the cash flowing! Best of luck tonight!

Today’s Key Injuries:

Jazz: C. Sexton - OUT, K. Olynyk - OUT

Pistons: I. Livers - OUT

Bulls: J. Green - Questionable

Heat: J. Butler - Doubtful, K. Lowry - OUT, C. Martin - OUT, G. Vincent - OUT, D. Dedmon - Probable

Warriors: S. Curry - OUT, A. Wiggins - OUT, D. DiVincenzo - OUT, J. Kuminga - Probable, J. Green - OUT

Knicks: O. Toppin - OUT

Wizards: K. Porzingis - Questionable, D. Wright - Questionable, R. Hachimura - OUT

Suns: D. Booker - OUT, C. Johnson - OUT, C. Payne - OUT, J. Okogie - OUT, J. Landale - OUT

Grizzlies: D. Bane - OUT

Nuggets: N. Jokic - Probable, J. Murray - Questionable, M. Porter Jr. - Doubtful, K. Caldwell-Pope - Questionable, J. Green - Questionable

Main Slate Match-Ups w/ Game Totals & Point Spreads

Note: NBA position designations are never going to perfectly align between the major DFS sites. For the purposes of these newsletters, positional designations will default to DraftKings.

💫 = Favorite Play

Point Guards/Shooting Guards to Consider 🏀

PG Ja Morant, MEM | DK: $10.4k, FD: $10.7k | @ DEN | GPP Preferred

Two superstars clash in this evening’s nightcap in Denver with Ja Morant visiting Nikola Jokic (probable) and the Nugs. Morant may have a little extra pep in his step following what I would call a “very questionable” ejection after being assessed two techs in the Grizzlies’ previous game against OKC on Saturday. Morant played just 16 minutes before the ejection so he’ll come in well-rested since his last full game was five days ago. This match-up features what is easily the highest total on the slate (236.5 O/U) so we’ll likely want some exposure to the key players on both sides. Morant has also averaged 56.75 FPPG in close games this year -- considering this game currently sits at a pick ‘em, it’s safe to say that Vegas is expecting this one to stay close and competitive through all four quarters. Denver has had issues defending opposing backcourts so Morant makes plenty of sense as a core spend-up on this slate.

💫PG Jalen Brunson, NYK | DK: $7.2k, FD: $7.8k | vs. GSW | Cash & GPP

The Knicks are back at home in MSG tonight and, much to the delight of my good buddy Dan AKA the biggest Knicks fan I know, they’re riding a seven-game win streak heading into this match-up with the shorthanded Warriors. Brunson has been a bit streaky this season but he is riding a three-game stretch where he has poured in 40+ DKFP. Brunson and the Knicks are set up with a plus match-up against a Warriors team that ranks 1st in the NBA in pace and mid-pack in defensive efficiency. If Brunson can log around 35 minutes tonight, he should cruise to another 40-to-50 fantasy point performance.

💫PG Ty Jerome, GSW | DK: $3.5k, FD: $4.3k | @ NYK | Cash & GPP

If you need a cheap guard play, Ty Jerome looks like he’ll fit the bill. The Warriors are, of course, without Steph Curry for the next few weeks but they’ll also be without Donte DiVincenzo this evening. Jerome won’t start, but he should see some extended run off of the bench and be a fairly safe bet for 20-25 minutes of run. Jerome has averaged 0.91 FPPM over his last five games so if he pushes closer to that 25 minutes projection, the potential for him to return 5x-6x value would be very likely.

Other Guards to Consider:

 

💫PG/SG Tyler Herro, MIA | DK: $8.8k, FD: $8.2k | vs. CHI | FD Preferred (Bigger bump if Butler is out)

PG Chris Paul, PHX | DK: $8.3k, FD: $8.1k | vs. WAS | Cash & GPP

💫PG/SG Jordan Poole, GSW | DK: $8.1k, FD: $8.3k | @ NYK | Cash & GPP

SG Klay Thompson, GSW | DK: $6.6k, FD: $7.3k | @ NYK | DK Preferred

PG/SG Bones Hyland, DEN | DK: $5k, FD: $4.9k | vs. MEM | GPP Preferred (Cash play if Murray and/or KCP ruled out)

PG/SG Victor Oladipo, MIA | DK: $4.9k, FD: $4.8k | vs. CHI | GPP Preferred

Small Forwards/Power Forwards to Consider 🏀

💫SF/PF DeMar DeRozan, CHI | DK: $8.2k, FD: $8.4k | @ MIA | Cash & GPP

DDR has secured at least 40+ DKFP in five of his last six games, and 12 of his last 15. As far as NBA DFS consistency goes, DeRozan is in the upper echelon of consistent performers. Oddly enough, DeRozan has been more prolific in road games this season where he is averaging +29.4% more FPPG. Miami is a top-10 team in terms of defensive efficiency but they’re one of the more banged-up teams in the NBA so I wouldn’t say it’s a brutal match-up. And, let’s not forget, DeRozan absolutely smashed in this match-up in Chicago’s first game of the season when he dropped 37 points, nine assists, six rebounds, two steals, and a block -- a stat line that produced his best DFS performance of the season (64.5 DKFP). He’ll be a strong play at these reasonable $8k salaries.

💫SF/SF Damion Lee, PHX | DK: $4.3k, FD: $4.1k | vs. WAS | Cash & GPP (if he’s starting)

Due to all of the current Suns' injuries, there is a strong chance that Damion Lee slides back into the starting rotation as he did last night where he finished with 27.0 DKFP in 38 minutes. Sure, he isn’t the most productive guy when he’s on the court, but **nearly** any NBA player who is going to potentially play 35+ minutes at these DFS prices will be worth consideration.

SF/PF Patrick Williams, CHI | DK: $4.2k, FD: $4.5k | @ MIA | Cash & GPP

Patrick Williams… never an exciting play, often a safe play. Williams will play 30+ minutes most nights (31.6 Min/Gm L5Gms) and he’ll usually end the game somewhere in the 20-25 FP range (0.73 FPPM L5 Gms). If this were a larger slate, Williams likely wouldn’t be on the radar. But, for a five-game slate, he’s going to be a playable option if you really need the salary savings.

Other Forwards to Consider:

 

💫PF Julius Randle, NYK | DK: $9.1k, FD: $9k | vs. GSW | Cash & GPP

SF/PF Bojan Bogdanovic, DET | DK: $6.4k, FD: $6.1k | vs. UTA | GPP Preferred

PF/C Torrey Craig, PHX | DK: $5.6k, FD: $5k | vs. WAS | GPP Preferred

SF/SG Max Strus, MIA | DK: $5k, FD: $5.2k | vs. CHI | GPP Preferred

💫SF/SG Quentin Grimes, NYK | DK: $4.8k, FD: $4.9k | vs. GSW | Cash & GPP

Centers to Consider 🏀

💫C Nikola Jokic, DEN | DK: $11.8k, FD: $12.5k | vs. MEM | Cash & GPP

I’m not sure how much longer it will last, but right now it’s extremely difficult to fade The Joker. He’s coming off of one of the best big man performances in recent history where he put up 40 points, 27 rebounds, and 10 assists against the Hornets on Sunday. Over his last five games, Jokic is averaging an absurd 2.12 FPPM. If Jamal Murray (knee/questionable) is eventually ruled out, Jokic feels like a near lock on this small slate. As it stands now, he’s a safe, high-floor DFS target you can trust in what should be a competitive, high-scoring game against the Grizzlies. Jokic has put up 80+ DKFP in his last three home games and the Nugs are back on their home court tonight.

💫C Walker Kessler, UTA | DK: $5k, FD: $5.5k | @ DET | Cash & GPP

There is a solid chance we’ll see Kessler back in the starting five tonight with Kelly Olynyk ruled out for the second consecutive game. Kessler is the type of player who can stuff the stat sheet in a hurry (1.12 FPPM L20Gms) and he racks up quite a few blocks (1.9 BLK/Gm on the season). On the flip side, going for those blocks does lead to landing himself in foul trouble quite often. If he can avoid the foul issues tonight and ends up playing 30+ minutes, he could smash value at these $5k salaries.

Other Centers to Consider:

 

C Bam Adebayo, MIA | DK: $8.4k, FD: $9.3k | vs. CHI | DK Preferred

C Deandre Ayton, PHX | DK: $7.6k, FD: $8k | vs. WAS | GPP Preferred

💫C Mitchell Robinson, NYK | DK: $5.2k, FD: $6.3k | vs. GSW | Cash & GPP/DK Preferred

C Jalen Duren, DET | DK: $4.8k, FD: $5.8k | vs. UTA | GPP/DK Preferred

NBA Player Props 📊

Player Prop or Bet | Odds | Unit Bet Size

I’m a little pressed for time today so I’m just going to list off the two props I like for this slate…

Walker Kessler OVER 2.5 Blocks + Steals | +145 (DraftKings) | 1.75 Units

Patrick Williams OVER 14.5 Points/Rebounds/Assists | -124 (FanDuel) | 2.0 Units

PrizePicks Power Play ⚡

Here is a two-pick “Power Play” I’m liking for today's NBA action over on PrizePicks! Nothing is ever a guarantee to hit but I put my own money on these bets so I don't just lightly throw these out there without believing they'll cash! If it hits, it will return 3x the wager.

Aaron Gordon MORE than 0.5 Steals

Walker Kessler MORE than 25.5 Fantasy Score

🆕 Props Edge+ 🆕

In LineStar’s ongoing mission to improve, innovate, and help you reel in some cash, we are introducing Props Edge+ for NBA – available for LineStar Premium users! This tool can help you find value and mispriced odds on player props from sportsbooks and, more specifically, for PrizePicks and UnderDog Fantasy!

Speaking of props, put the Props Edge+ tool to use by signing up for PrizePicks (Promo code: BETFULLY) or Underdog (Promo code: LINESTAR). You'll receive a 100% match on first deposits up to $100 PLUS a free two-month subscription to LineStar Premium. Many people may not realize that you can legally place prop bets in most states using UnderDog (or PrizePicks) – it’s called Pick'Em, and it’s incredibly easy.

That will wrap us up with today’s “Daily Dribble” edition! Once again, you can find me on Twitter or in LineStar chat @Ryan_Humphries. Good luck everyone!