Top NBA DFS Plays & Prop Bets 12/21 | Many Moving Parts on Thursday's Slate

Top DFS Plays & Props for Thursday's NBA Action!

Author

Ryan Humphries
December 21, 2023

Written By: Ryan Humphries on Twitter & LineStar chat @Ryan_Humphries

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DFS Main Slate Rundown 📰

Today is a bit peculiar when it comes to the slate setup. There are eight total NBA games on today’s schedule. However, the DraftKings main slate will consist of only the first six games while the FanDuel main slate will include those same games plus the Timberwolves/Lakers match-up. The Wizards/Trailblazers game is left off of both main slates entirely. I’m not sure of the reasoning behind this at the moment but we’ll play the cards we’re dealt! For the purposes of this newsletter, we will primarily focus on the six mutually shared games between the DK and FD main slates. Best of luck!

 

Today’s Key Injuries

Jazz: L. Markkanen - OUT, J. Clarkson - OUT, T. Horton-Tucker - OUT, K. George - OUT, O. Yurtseven - OUT

Pistons: J. Duren - OUT, K. Hayes - Questionable

Pelicans: Z. Williamson - Questionable, J. Valanciunas - Questionable, H. Jones - Questionable, C. Zeller - Questionable, M. Ryan - OUT, L. Nance Jr. - OUT

Cavaliers: D. Mitchell - OUT, D. Garland - OUT, E. Mobley - OUT

Pacers: M. Turner - Questionable, J. Smith - Questionable, A. Nembhard - Questionable

Grizzlies: M. Smart - Doubtful, D. Rose - OUT, L. Kennard - OUT

Clippers: P. George - Questionable, M. Plumlee - OUT

Thunder: None

Spurs: V. Wembanyama - Probable, K. Johnson - Probable, D. Vassell - Questionable

Bulls: Z. LaVine - OUT, T. Craig - OUT

Magic: J. Suggs - Questionable, M. Fultz - OUT, J. Ingles - Questionable

Bucks: G. Antetokounmpo - Probable, J. Crowder - OUT

Lakers: L. James - OUT, G. Vincent - OUT

Timberwolves: None

 

Also, a quick shoutout to our very own Tyler Wiemann (aka flattyler83) on another big NBA hit! Tyler took down $30k+ over on FanDuel last night! Big congrats, Tyler!

Main Slate Match-Ups w/ Game Totals & Point Spreads

Top DraftKings & FanDuel DFS Plays

Note: NBA position designations are never going to perfectly align between the major DFS sites. For the purposes of these newsletters, positional designations will default to DraftKings.

Point Guards/Shooting Guards to Consider 🏀

PG Ja Morant, MEM | DK: $9.5k, FD: $9.8k | vs. IND

It took all of one game for Ja Morant to make his presence felt on an NBA court following his 25-game suspension. Folks were hesitant to play him in his first game back. But after scoring 34 points, including the game-winner, to go along with eight dimes, six boards, two steals, and a block (57.0 DKFP/57.2 FDFP), I don’t imagine people will be so worried about him today. Morant logged 35 minutes in his 2023 debut and posted a colossal 41.7% usage rate on Tuesday. He did see a slight price bump on both sites but he’s still under $10k, which I consider a bargain given Morant’s upside. This will also be his first home game of the 2023 season. Oh, and he draws one of the best match-ups possible. In MLB DFS, you have the “Coors Field bump.” This season in NBA DFS, you have the “Pacers bump.” The Pacers offer a unique combination of fast pace (2nd in pace), poor defense (28th in DEFRTG), and a potent offense (1st in OFFRTG), which helps prevent blowouts. By no surprise, we’ll have a slate-high 247 over/under in this game with the Grizzlies being slight 2.5-point home favorites and a slate-leading 124.8 implied team total.

 

PG/SG Cade Cunningham, DET | DK: $8.6k, FD: $8.5k | vs. UTA

The 2-25 Pistons have a chance to win their first game in 54 days! They’re rare favorites (DET: -2.5) this evening and they take on a very shorthanded Jazz team that will be without some of their best players. Cade Cunningham just exploded for 43 points against the Hawks on Monday, ending the night with 67.75 DKFP/68.5 FDFP across 44 minutes played (in regulation). That’s a tough act to follow and I’m not in love with his DFS prices today, but Cunningham should check in at low ownership and bring some slate-breaking upside to the table. The Jazz, who are 25th in DEFRTG, do not defend primary ball handlers or scorers well, and Cunningham qualifies as both. Cunningham can contribute nicely in all five stat categories and he’s at home tonight where he tends to be a bit more reliable (+8.6% more FPPG at home). Overall, he’s riskier than some of the other guards on this slate but there will be plenty of upside attached to his low DFS ownership.

SG Sam Merrill, CLE | DK: $4.5k, FD: $4.1k | vs. NOP

This play worked out massively yesterday so we’ll go right back to the well with the Cavaliers being in the exact same situation. Like yesterday, Cleveland is down their top three players, Donovan Mitchell, Darius Garland, and Evan Mobley. The absence of Mitchell and Garland opens up plenty of minutes and usage in the backcourt. I would fully expect Craig Porter Jr. (DK: $4.7k, FD: $4.6k) to continue to start while Merrill comes off the bench. Both are great value picks today, albeit very chalky. Even when the Cavs get their star players back, Merrill has likely played well enough recently to have earned himself a meaningful role. Over his last two games, Merril has shot 15-of-27 from the field (55.6% FG%), including 13-of-24 from three-point range (54.2% 3P%). He has scored an excellent 1.37 FPPM in these last two games and it would be a surprise if he doesn’t play 24-30 minutes off of the bench tonight. The Pelicans’ locker room is also dealing with some sort of illness that has several key players listed as questionable today, so they may not be at full strength in tonight’s match-up. They’ve also allowed the 10th most FPPG to reserve units over their last 20 games.

 

Other Guards to Consider

PG Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, OKC | DK: $10.2k, FD: $11.6k | vs. LAC (DK Preferred)

PG Coby White, CHI | DK: $8.3k, FD: $8.3k | vs. SAS

PG/SG Collin Sexton, UTA | DK: $7.7k, FD: $7.2k | @ DET

PG CJ McCollum, NOP | DK: $7.5k, FD: $7.6k | @ CLE (Potential boost pending NOP news)

SG/SF Caris LeVert, CLE | DK: $6.5k, FD: $6.6k | vs. NOP

PG/SF Kris Dunn, UTA | DK: $5.8k, FD: $4.8k | @ DET (FD Preferred)

SG Malik Beasley, MIL | DK: $5.3k, FD: $5.3k | vs. ORL

PG Craig Porter Jr., CLE | DK: $4.7k, FD: $4.6k | vs. NOP

Small Forwards/Power Forwards to Consider 🏀

PF/C Victor Wembanyama, SAS | DK: $9k, FD: $10.2k | @ CHI

Wemby sat out Tuesday’s game with an ankle injury but is officially “probable” today and isn’t expected to face any notable restrictions. He’s priced appropriately on FanDuel, but his $9,000 DraftKings salary is still just too cheap so that’s where we’ll focus on him today. Since moving to center five games ago, Wemby is averaging 19.2 PPG, 15.8 RPG, 3.6 APG, and an absurd 5.6 STL+BLK/gm, which has led to an elite 1.77 FPPM and 56.3 DKFP/gm. He has shown some start home/road splits (49.2 DKFP/gm at home, 39.6 DKFP/gm away) but we’ll see if the superstar rookie can begin to close that gap as the season progresses. Wembanyama’s first official start at center came against this same Bulls squad and he put up 21 points, 20 rebounds, four assists, and five combined blocks/steals -- good for 63.0 DKFP in just 32 minutes. So there is plenty of GPP-winning 6x to 7x upside for Wemby tonight and he doesn’t project to be extremely high-owned.

PF/C John Collins, UTA | DK: $7.2k, FD: $6.6k | @ DET

The Jazz are down five combined starters and rotational players today so they’re likely going to lean on just six or seven guys tonight. So, a minutes/usage boost should fall to the core healthy Jazz players and they’re facing one of the worst defensive teams in the NBA (DET: 26th in DEFRTG). After missing four games with an illness, John Collins has played low-20s minutes off of the bench in the previous two games. I’d expect him to re-enter the starting rotation and push for 32+ minutes tonight. A 40+ FP score is an attainable outcome for Collins in this spot. If, for some reason, he doesn’t start, he becomes a less appealing option on this slate.

 

SF Vince Williams Jr., MEM | DK: $5.2k, FD: $4.9k | vs. IND

There may be better forward value that opens up later in the day (and Williams is SG-only eligible on FanDuel) but, for now, Williams sets up as a worthy value target. His usage is not going to be high, especially with Ja Morant back in the lineup, but he has started four consecutive games and logged a season-high 35 minutes on Tuesday. Williams is averaging 0.83 FPPM this season and can contribute nicely in the rebound, steal, and block categories in a game that should have a ton of possessions.

 

Other Forwards to Consider

PF/C Giannis Antetokounmpo, MIL | DK: $11k, FD: $12.2k | vs. ORL (DK Preferred)

PF/C Anthony Davis, LAL | DK: N/A, FD: $11.5k | vs. MIN (FD Only)

SF/PF Kawhi Leonard, LAC | DK: $9.2k, FD: $9.3k | @ OKC (Preferred if P. George is out)

SF/PF DeMar DeRozan, CHI | DK: $8.4k, FD: $8.1k | vs. SAS

SF/SG Brandon Ingram, NOP | DK: $7.9k, FD: $8.4k | @ CLE (Potential boost pending NOP news)

SF/PF Keldon Johnson, SAS | DK: $7.2k, FD: $7.3k | @ CHI

SF/SG Austin Reaves, LAL | DK: N/A, FD: $7.1k | vs. MIN (FD Only)

SF/PF Bojan Bogdanovic, DET | DK: $6.7k, FD: $6.8k | vs. UTA

SF/SG Norman Powell, LAC | DK: $6k, FD: $5.8k | @ OKC (Preferred if P. George is out)

SF/SG Trey Murphy III, NOP | DK: $5.8k, FD: $5.5k | @ CLE (Potential boost pending NOP news)

PF/C Bobby Portis, MIL | DK: $5.5k, FD: $5.9k | vs. ORL

PF Naji Marshall, NOP | DK: $4.1k, FD: $4.3k | @ CLE (Potential boost pending NOP news)

Centers to Consider 🏀

C Nikola Vucevic, CHI | DK: $8.1k, FD: $8.6k | vs. SAS

The “center-eligible only” pool isn’t outstanding today but Vuc makes plenty of sense. He’ll battle Wemby for the boards but he posted a 21-point, 16-rebound double-double against the Spurs on Dec. 8th (Wemby’s first start at center). Vucevic is averaging 1.36 FPPM over his last five games and has a pair of 55+ FP performances in that stretch. The Bulls are dead last in pace so this is a significant pace-up boost against the Spurs (3rd in pace), who also rank 24th in DEFRTG. So, we can expect a strong floor from Vucevic tonight with a moderate chance of a ceiling performance.

C Walker Kessler, UTA | DK: $6.6k, FD: $7.8k | @ DET

Back to the shorthanded Jazz, we go. Kessler isn’t always the most consistent DFS asset but the upside is always there thanks to his elite shot-blocking and strong rebounding ability. Kessler is averaging 5.2 STL+BLK/gm and 11.2 RPG over his last five games, which includes one game where he played just 18 minutes. The Pistons have allowed the 6th most opponent blocker per game (6.5) and rank 20th in rebounding%. They also rank bottom 10 in points in the paint allowed per game. Detroit will be without center Jalen Duren (ankle/out) for a seventh consecutive game, which will hurt their rebounding ability and rim protection prowess. We should get a double-double out of Kessler today to go along with multiple blocks.

 

Other Centers to Consider

C Jarrett Allen, CLE | DK: $7.5k, FD: $7.1k | vs. NOP

C Jonas Valanciunas, NOP | DK: $7.2k, FD: $8k | @ CLE (Valanciunas is currently questionable)

C Ivica Zubac, LAC | DK: $7k, FD: $7k | @ OKC

C Isaiah Jackson, IND | DK: $6.7k, FD: $5.8k | @ MEM (Only if M. Turner is out)

C Kelly Olynyk, UTA | DK: $6.2k, FD: $5.6k | @ DET

C Tristan Thompson, CLE | DK: $3.8k, FD: $3.8k | vs. NOP (GPP Punt)

PrizePicks NBA Power Play ⚡

Here is a two-pick “Power Play” I’m liking for today's NBA action over on PrizePicks! Nothing is ever a guarantee to hit but I put my own money on these bets so I don't just lightly throw these out there without believing they'll cash! If it hits, it will return 3x the wager.

Franz Wagner MORE than 4.5 Rebounds

DeMar DeRozan MORE than 0.5 Three-Pointers Made

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That will wrap us up with today’s “Daily Dribble” edition! Once again, you can find me on Twitter or in LineStar chat @Ryan_Humphries. Good luck everyone!