Written By: Ryan Humphries on Twitter & LineStar chat @Ryan_Humphries

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NBA DFS & Props Shows w/ Shannon & Tyler!

DFS Main Slate Rundown 📰

Time to crack open a Friday six-pack of games as we head into the holiday weekend! I hope you guys like Mavericks value because it may be unavoidable today. As you’ll see on the injury report below, Dallas will be without the services of Luka, Kyrie, Lively, Exum, and Josh Green, which causes a massive amount of minutes and usage to fall to the remaining Mavs players. It can be irritating when one team’s usual “bench scrubs” will likely determine the outcome of a slate but that’s the hand we’re dealt today. Nonetheless, we can look to get creative elsewhere with the other 11 teams on the slate. Best of luck!

Also, this will be the final NBA newsletter until after the holiday so I hope everyone who celebrates it has a Merry Christmas!

Today’s Key Injuries

^{Note: Today’s NBA newsletter is being written a bit earlier than usual so look out for additional injury news that may pop up later in the afternoon.}

Raptors: None

76ers: D. Melton - Questionable, P. Beverly - Questionable, R. Covington - Probable, N. Batum - OUT

Nuggets: A. Gordon - Probable

Nets: B. Simmons - OUT, L. Walker IV - OUT

Hawks: J. Johnson - OUT

Heat: J. Butler - OUT

Mavericks: L. Doncic - OUT, K. Irving - OUT, D. Lively II - OUT, D. Exum - OUT, J. Green - OUT, M. Kleber - OUT, S. Curry - Questionable

Rockets: T. Eason - Questionable

Suns: J. Nurkic - OUT, B. Beal - OUT, J. Okogie - Questionable

Kings: M. Monk - Questionable, J. McGee - Questionable, A. Len - OUT

Wizards: D. Wright - Questionable, L. Shamet - Questionable

Warriors: B. Podziemski - Questionable, D. Green - OUT, G. Payton II - OUT

Main Slate Match-Ups w/ Game Totals & Point Spreads

Top DraftKings & FanDuel DFS Plays

Note: NBA position designations are never going to perfectly align between the major DFS sites. For the purposes of these newsletters, positional designations will default to DraftKings.

Point Guards/Shooting Guards to Consider 🏀

PG/SG Tyler Herro, MIA | DK: $8.4k, FD: $8.1k | vs. ATL

A strong case can be made for pretty much all of the high-end guard plays on this slate, but we’ll get things rolling with Herro. Following an 18-game absence due to an ankle sprain, Herro returned to action on Monday. He has stitched together a pair of strong performances since then and showed no rust shooting the ball (20/35 shooting L2Games, 57.1% FG%), despite facing two top-five defensive teams in the Timberwolves (1st DEFRTG) and Magic (5th DEFRTG). Herro also doesn’t seem to be pinned with any kind of restrictions heading into tonight’s game, as he played 33 minutes on Monday and 36 minutes on Wednesday. Across 10 games played this season, Herro is putting up 23.6 PPG on a 29.5% usage rate to go along with 5.1 RPG, 4.6 APG, and 1.3 STL/gm. He’s shooting 41.7% from three-point range and attempting 7.2 threes per game. Herro should receive a usage bump with Jimmy Butler (calf/out) sidelined for a second consecutive game. The Heat (26th in pace) receive the largest pace differential boost on the slate versus the Hawks (5th in pace), who also happens to rank 27th in DEFRTG. Even without the services of Butler tonight, the Heat are one-point home favorites in a game that boasts a high 238 over/under. We can feel pretty comfortable with rolling with Herro out of the $8k range.

SG/SF Tim Hardaway Jr., DAL | DK: $6.1k, FD: $6.3k | @ HOU

As mentioned, gaining exposure to the depleted Mavs roster will likely be a bit of a necessary evil today. They’re going to play without a handful of core rotational players, including Luka Doncic and Kyrie Irving. While Dallas ranks last on the slate with a 107.5 implied team total, the rest of the healthy Mavs players are not priced up to reflect all of those injury absences and will take on a major uptick in minutes and/or usage by necessity. If we input all of the injured Mavs into the LineStar Usage Matrix, we’ll see some very small minutes sample sizes since most of those injured players have not missed a ton of time. But if we just look at the time that Tim Hardaway Jr. has spent on the court without Luka or Kyrie, we’ll see that he has received an enormous, team-leading +16.1% usage boost and +24.7 fantasy point per 48-minute increase. If Dallas is serious about winning this game, even while playing without many of their best players, they will probably insert Hardaway into the starting rotation for the first time this season. Either way, Hardaway should play 35+ minutes (pending extreme blowout) and anything short of 6x value would be a surprise and major disappointment. Hardaway, and a few of his teammates, will be major chalk today but it’s always possible to just differentiate elsewhere. There’s a high chance that at least one or two Dallas players will end up in tonight’s optimal lineup.

PG/SG Josh Richardson, MIA | DK: $4.5k, FD: $5k | vs. ATL

Again, the safe value on this slate is mostly over with the Mavs, but if you want to pivot away to a cheap non-Mavs guard, then Josh Richardson will be worth some consideration. On Wednesday, he played 34 minutes with Jimmy Butler (calf/out) sidelined. He’s not the most prolific per-minute fantasy scorer, but he has been a bit better at home (0.78 FPPM at home, 0.68 FPPM away) and, assuming he played mid-30s minutes off of the bench, he’ll have a great chance at returning value, particularly on DraftKings at his $4,500 salary. And, as mentioned in Herro’s spotlight above, the Heat will benefit from this match-up against the fast-paced, poor defensive play of the Atlanta Hawks.

Other Guards to Consider

PG Trae Young, ATL | DK: $9.9k, FD: $10k | @ MIA

PG/SG Stephen Curry, GSW | DK: $9.6k, FD: $8.8k | vs. WAS (FD Preferred)

PG De’Aaron Fox, SAC | DK: $9.5k, FD: $9.9k | vs. PHX

PG Fred VanVleet, HOU | DK: $8.2k, FD: $8.7k | vs. DAL

PG Jamal Murray, DEN | DK: $7.3k, FD: $7.9k | @ BKN (DK Preferred)

PG/SG Jordan Poole, WAS | DK: $7.2k, FD: $6.7k | @ GSW (rEvEnGe GaMe?!?)

PG Chris Paul, GSW | DK: $6.5k, FD: $6.8k | vs. WAS (Preferred if Podziemski sits)

PG/SG Jaden Hardy, DAL | DK: $4.3k, FD: $4.9k | @ HOU (Assuming he starts)

SG Seth Curry, DAL | DK: $3.7k, FD: $5.2k | @ HOU (DK Preferred -- Curry is currently questionable)

SG/SF AJ Lawson, DAL | DK: $3k, FD: $3.6k | @ HOU (Should be a worthy punt play anyway, but gets a boost if Seth Curry sits)

Small Forwards/Power Forwards to Consider 🏀

SF/SG Klay Thompson, GSW | DK: $6.9k, FD: $7k | vs. WAS

Thompson is only SG eligible on FanDuel but he has had SF (and SG) eligibility on DraftKings for a while now. He’s been on a hot streak as of late, averaging 41.4 DKFP/39.6 FDFP per game and 1.23 FPPM over his previous four games. The Warriors are in a smash spot against the Wizards, who lead the NBA in pace and rank 29th in DEFRTG. As a result, it is not a major surprise that Golden State tops the slate with their hefty 129.8 implied team total. The Warriors are 12-point home favorites, so the blowout potential is there, but I have a feeling that the Wizards can do enough to at least keep this game relatively close into the fourth quarter. Draymond Green (suspension) and Gary Payton II (calf) are already ruled out for this game while Brandon Podziemski (back) remains questionable. If Podziemski sits out tonight, Klay Thompson leads the team with a +2.9% usage boost and +11.5 fantasy point per 48-minute increase in 304 minutes with those three players off the court this season. But, to be clear, Thompson is still a viable mid-range play even if Podziemski suits up. Klay’s four consecutive strong games have come with Podziemski in the starting lineup in each game.

PF Aaron Gordon, DEN | DK: $6k, FD: $6.3k | @ BKN

I generally prefer to target Nuggets players when they’re at home where they have a unique advantage of being more acclimated to the high altitude in Denver, but it’s tough to ignore Gordon at these DFS salaries, even if he is a little banged up with a heel injury (but listed as probable/expected to play tonight). Gordon did not play overly well against the Nets eight days ago, though, he was limited to 24 minutes due to a 23-point blowout Denver win. The spread is only DEN -4.5 tonight, so we shouldn’t go into this match-up expecting another blowout. Gordon has secured at least 32.25 DKFP/31.4 FDFP in four of his last six games, and at least 37.75 DKFP/37.5 FDFP in two of his last three. The Nets have ranked 1st against starting power forwards over their last 20 games and the Nuggets are on the front end of a back-to-back… but so are the Nets. Overall, this is much more of a < 10% owned GPP play and a potential way to get off of some of the Mavs chalk. But Gordon has typically been priced in the upper-$6k/lower-$7k range for a good portion of this season and he brings 40+ FP upside to the table. So, this is a “go spot” for Gordon at these price tags.

PF/C Trayce Jackson-Davis, GSW | DK: $4.6k, FD: $6.1k | vs. WAS

There is a clear price discrepancy on TJD between DK and FD, making him a better potential bargain on the former platform, but he’s been deserving of his current $6,100 tag on FanDuel over the last couple of games. Jackson-Davis earned 18 minutes off of the bench on Sunday (@ POR) where, in that short time, he put up a 14/8/3 line with two steals and a block (33.5 DKFP/35.1 FDFP). Two nights later (vs. BOS), the Warriors gave TJD 28 minutes off of the bench and he responded with another strong performance -- 10/13/1 with three blocks (34.75 DKFP/35.1 FDFP). He is now averaging an impressive 1.37 FPPM over his last five games and, with the Warriors playing without Draymond Green (suspension/out), it seems as if Jackson-Davis is carving out a well-deserved role with the second unit while a guy like Jonathan Kuminga has been bumped up into the starting rotation. I believe it’s worth noting that Jackson-Davis earned those minutes in two games that were close and competitive throughout. There is some blowout potential tonight (GSW -12) and, while a two-game sample size is tough to trust, Jackson-Davis seems likely to earn minutes tonight whether it’s a blowout or a close game.

Other Forwards to Consider

PF Kevin Durant, PHX | DK: $9.7k, FD: $10.2k | @ SAC

SF/PF Scottie Barnes, TOR | DK: $8.8k, FD: $9.4k | @ PHI (DK Preferred)

PF Kyle Kuzma, WAS | DK: $8.6k, FD: $8k | @ GSW (FD Preferred)

PF Jabari Smith Jr., HOU | DK: $7.1k, FD: $6.6k | vs. DAL (Preferred if T. Eason is out again)

SF/PF Jaime Jaquez Jr., MIA | DK: $6.3k, FD: $5.6k | vs. ATL (Assuming he starts again)

SF/PF Jonathan Kuminga, GSW | DK: $5.6k, FD: $5.5k | vs. WAS

SF/SG Grayson Allen, PHX | DK: $5.4k, FD: $5.7k | @ SAC

SF Derrick Jones Jr., DAL | DK: $5.3k, FD: $5.8k | @ HOU

PF Grant Williams, DAL | DK: $4.7k, FD: $5.3k | @ HOU

PF/C Chimezie Metu, PHX | DK: $3.5k, FD: $3.9k | @ SAC (Only if he starts)

Centers to Consider 🏀

C Joel Embiid, PHI | DK: $11.2k, FD: $12.9k | vs. TOR

Embiid continuously falls under 10% ownership despite being on one of the more dominant stretches of basketball in recent memory. With all of that Mavs value on the slate, I doubt Embiid is going to draw low ownership today, particularly on DraftKings where he saw a $500 price drop after putting 51 points and 77.0 DKFP on the NBA’s best defense (Timberwolves) on Wednesday. FanDuel has the right idea pricing him just under $13k but, even at that monstrous salary, he’s firmly in play. The Process has procured at least 66.75 DKFP/62.7 FDFP in 10 of his last 11 games, which is just an absurd floor to have. The Raptors are mid-pack defensively versus centers and they’re on the second leg of a back-to-back and most of their starters played big minutes against Jokic and the Nuggets yesterday. A popular lineup construction approach today will be “Mavs value + Embiid” but I can’t say that I hate it. It’s perfectly fine for cash games and, if you’re rolling with that approach in GPP lineups, just mix in some lower-owned, high-upside guys elsewhere.

C Drew Eubanks, PHX | DK: $4.5k, FD: $4.1k | @ SAC

Jusuf Nurkic (personal/out) will miss his first game of the season tonight. Whether he starts or plays additional minutes off of the bench, Eubanks is in an obvious position to provide value at center, and he also carries PF eligibility on FanDuel. The Suns may choose to play a smaller lineup, possibly moving Kevin Durant to center at times, but Eubanks has averaged just under an FPPM this season, and 1.08 FPPM over his last five games. So, if he can manage to see 28-34 minutes tonight, he’ll have a very strong shot at paying off these $4k salaries.

Other Centers to Consider

C Nikola Jokic, DEN | DK: $11k, FD: $12.2k | @ BKN (Very low-owned tonight)

C Domantas Sabonis, SAC | DK: $9.4k, FD: $9.7k | vs. PHX

C Bam Adebayo, MIA | DK: $9.2k, FD: $8.9k | vs. ATL

C Daniel Gafford, WAS | DK: $6k, FD: $6.2k | @ GSW

C Trey Lyles, SAC | DK: $4.1k, FD: $4.1k | vs. PHX (Potential boost if J. McGee is out)

PrizePicks NBA Power Play ⚡

Here is a two-pick “Power Play” I’m liking for today's NBA action over on PrizePicks! Nothing is ever a guarantee to hit but I put my own money on these bets so I don't just lightly throw these out there without believing they'll cash! If it hits, it will return 3x the wager.

Joel Embiid MORE than 62.0 Fantasy Score

Klay Thompson + Trae Young MORE than 7.5 Three-Pointers Made (Combo)

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That will wrap us up with today’s “Daily Dribble” edition! Once again, you can find me on Twitter or in LineStar chat @Ryan_Humphries. Good luck everyone!