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Top NBA DFS Plays & Prop Bets 12/28 | Dicing Up Wednesday's Eight-Game Slate!
Another sizable slate awaits with eight games on the docket tonight! Let’s get set up with some top DFS plays and props to consider!
Written By: Ryan Humphries on Twitter & LineStar chat @Ryan_Humphries
Straight Locks🔒 | NBA Props w/ Tyler!
DFS Main Slate Rundown 📰
We get right back to business with eight games on the board this evening! It’s not the sexiest slate but there are a few quality match-ups out there. Hopefully, we can squeeze another successful night of DFS and prop bets out of this one! And congrats if you had Luka Doncic in your lineup(s) last night!
Keep an eye on the injury report tonight. There are quite a few high impact players with "questionable" tags at the moment.
Today’s Key Injuries:
Suns: D. Booker - OUT, C. Johnson - OUT, C. Payne - OUT, L. Shamet - OUT, B. Biyombo - Questionable
Wizards: B. Beal - Questionable
Magic: J. Suggs - OUT, C. Okeke - OUT
Pistons: M. Bagley III - OUT
Lakers: A. Davis - OUT, L. James - Questionable, D. Schroder - Probable, A. Reaves - Probable
Heat: J. Butler - Questionable, B. Adebayo - Questionable, C. Martin - Probable, G. Vincent - Questionable, D. Dedmon - OUT
Nets: J. Harris - OUT
Hawks: T. Young - Questionable, C. Capela - OUT, B. Bogdanovic - Questionable, D. Hunter - Questionable, J. Johnson - Questionable
Bucks: J. Holiday - OUT, K. Middleton - OUT
Bulls: A. Caruso - Questionable, D. Jones Jr. - Doubtful, J. Green - Questionable
Timberwolves: K. Towns - OUT, K. Anderson - Questionable, J. McLaughlin - OUT, T. Prince - OUT
Pelicans: B. Ingram - OUT, H. Jones - OUT
Warriors: S. Curry - OUT, K. Thompson - OUT, A. Wiggins - OUT, D. DiVincenzo - Questionable, D. Green - Questionable, J. Green - Questionable
Nuggets: J. Murray - Questionable, A. Gordon - Questionable, B. Brown - Questionable, J. Green - OUT
Kings: D. Sabonis - Questionable
Main Slate Match-Ups w/ Game Totals & Point Spreads
Note: NBA position designations are never going to perfectly align between the major DFS sites. For the purposes of these newsletters, positional designations will default to DraftKings.
💫 = Favorite Play
Point Guards/Shooting Guards to Consider 🏀
💫PG Kyrie Irving, BKN | DK: $8.4k, FD: $8.6k | @ ATL | Cash & GPP
There aren’t many big names worth spending up on across this slate, but Kyrie is looking like a mid-$8k play we’ll want to consider. He has put up at least 44.25 DKFP in six of his last seven games with the lone exception coming against the Bucks (6th in defensive efficiency). He hasn’t played fewer than 34 minutes in 13 consecutive games and the last time he faced the Hawks (12/9), he dropped 33 points, 11 rebounds, and three assists -- good for 52.25 DKFP. A similar result isn’t out of the question tonight. The Hawks are on the second leg of a B2B and the Nets’ 120.0 implied point total ranks them second on tonight’s slate.
SG/SF Pat Connaughton, MIL | DK: $4k, FD: $3.9k | @ CHI | Cash & GPP
Connaughton projects to land in the starting lineup for a second consecutive game given the injuries to Jrue Holiday and Khris Middleton (both out tonight). In his Christmas Day start, Connaughton logged 30 minutes and put up 15 points, four rebounds, three assists, and a steal -- a performance that earned him 28.5 DKFP. He is right around an FPPM player so another 30-ish minutes likely leads to some quality value at these $4k/$3.9k salaries.
💫PG/SG Duane Washington Jr., PHX | DK: $3.2k, FD: $3.7k | @ WAS | Cash & GPP
Well, hey, this play worked out very well yesterday! Washington may have played above his head, posting 46.0 DKFP in just 24 minutes, but the guy has been efficient when he has received solid minutes so we’ll look to run it back tonight. Nothing has really changed with the Suns’ injury report, particularly when it comes to their backcourt which is riddled with injuries. Washington likely won’t start, but that could be for the best as he’ll have strong usage to himself when he comes off of the bench. His salaries have only increased by $200 above the minimum on both DraftKings and FanDuel and another game where he receives 20-24 minutes should lead to easy value. He’ll no doubt be one of the chalkier plays of the evening, but very tough to get away from.
Other Guards to Consider:
PG Russell Westbrook, LAL | DK: $7.5k, FD: $8k | @ MIA | GPP Preferred (Cash play if LeBron is out)
💫PG Jamal Murray, DEN | DK: $7.2k, FD: $7.7k | @ SAC | Cash & GPP (Note: Murray is currently questionable)
PG Kyle Lowry, MIA | DK: $6.9k, FD: $6.4k | vs. LAL | GPP Preferred (Monitor Heat injury report w/ Butler/Adebayo -- Lowry gets a bump if one or both sit)
PG Markelle Fultz, ORL | DK: $5.9k, FD: $6.3k | @ DET | GPP Preferred
PG Killian Hayes, DET | DK: $5.6k, FD: $6k | vs. ORL | GPP Preferred
PG/SG Bones Hyland, DEN | DK: $4.7k, FD: $4.7k | @ SAC | GPP Preferred (Monitor B. Brown injury news)
PG/SG Jevon Carter, MIL | DK: $3.5k, FD: $4.2k | @ CHI | Cash & GPP
Small Forwards/Power Forwards to Consider 🏀
💫PF/C Giannis Antetokounmpo, MIL | DK: $11.5k, FD: $11.7k | @ CHI | Cash & GPP
Giannis receives a usage bump with Holiday, and Middleton sidelined this evening. Milwaukee has dropped three games in a row so there should be some big motivation to right the ship in Chicago tonight. Giannis poured in 36 points when he went against the Bulls earlier this season, and I believe this is a good spot for a potential ceiling game. These DFS salaries for Giannis, specifically on DraftKings, are some of the lowest he’s had since the early season and there is plenty of value available to easily fit him into lineups tonight.
PF/C John Collins, ATL | DK: $5.3k, FD: $6.3k | vs. BKN | Cash & GPP/DK Preferred
We do have to worry about the back-to-back here (Collins: -17% less FPPG with no rest), but if Collins can log another 30+ minute night, he projects as a strong play this evening. He dropped a 26-point, 10-rebound double-double last night, earning 43.0 DKFP in 30 minutes. He’ll continue to receive additional opportunities with Clint Capela sidelined, and he’d receive a solid usage bump if Trae Young (calf/questionable) is eventually ruled out.
💫SF/PF TJ Warren, BKN | DK: $4k, FD: $5.1k | @ ATL | Cash & GPP/DK Preferred
Warren is an efficient producer, scoring 1.06 FPPM this season. He has handled at least 21 minutes of work in three straight games, including a season-high 27 minutes on Monday. He did not disappoint in that last game where he racked up 23 points, eight boards, two assists, and two steals (40.5 DKFP). We can safely project him for around 22-24 minutes tonight in a significant pace-up spot against the Hawks (7th in pace). He’ll be more of a GPP play on FanDuel but has plenty of 6x-8x (or better) upside at just $4,000 on DraftKings.
Other Forwards to Consider:
SF/SG Anthony Edwards, MIN | DK: $9.5k, FD: $9.1k | @ NOP | GPP Preferred
💫SF/PF Lauri Markkanen, UTA | DK: $8.3k, FD: $8.2k | @ GSW | Cash & GPP
SF/SG Donte DiVincenzo, GSW | DK: $6.4k, FD: $6.1k | vs. UTA | GPP Preferred (Note: DiVincenzo is questionable tonight)
PF/C Ben Simmons, BKN | DK: $6.2k, FD: $7.2k | @ ATL | GPP/DK Preferred
PF Draymond Green, GSW | DK: $6k, FD: $6.8k | vs. UTA | GPP Preferred (Note: Draymond is questionable tonight)
PF/C Jonathan Kuminga, GSW | DK: $5k, FD: $4.5k | vs. UTA (Potential cash play pending further Warriors injury news)
PF/C Isaiah Stewart, DET | DK: $4.8k, FD: $5.5k | vs. ORL | GPP Preferred
SF/SG Moses Moody, GSW | DK: $3.7k, FD: $3.9k | vs. UTA | Cash & GPP
Centers to Consider 🏀
C Onyeka Okongwu, ATL | DK: $5.2k, FD: $5.9k | vs. BKN | GPP Preferred
Okongwu has racked up five fouls in each of his last two games, limiting him to 21 minutes in both contests. The Hawks have shown that they won’t be shy about giving him some strong minutes in Clint Capela’s absence, so long as he can keep his hands to himself. There is some risk here but he is a strong double-double threat in this game which features one of the higher totals of the evening.
💫C Jalen Duren, DET | DK: $5.1k, FD: $5.8k | vs. ORL | Cash & GPP
Duren has been a super reliable center option out of this $5k range since entering the starting rotation nine games ago. He is averaging exactly 1.00 FPPM over his last 20 games and is usually playing around 30 minutes per game. Orlando is quite solid at defending opposing centers but they do allow the 11th most points in the paint and enter tonight’s game on the second leg of a B2B.
Other Centers to Consider:
💫C Nikola Jokic, DEN | DK: $11.7k, FD: $12.3k | @ SAC | Cash & GPP
C Deandre Ayton, PHX | DK: $7.4k, FD: $8k | @ WAS | GPP Preferred
C Thomas Bryant, LAL | DK: $6.1k, FD: $5.7k | @ MIA | GPP Preferred
C Naz Reid, MIN | DK: $4.7k, FD: $6.1k | @ NOP | GPP/DK Preferred
C Richaun Holmes, SAC | DK: $3k, FD: $4.6k | vs. DEN | DK Preferred (If Sabonis is out again)
NBA Player Props 📊
Player Prop or Bet | Odds | Unit Bet Size
Moritz Wagner OVER 12.5 Points + Assists | -115 (Caesars) | 2.5 Units
Collin Sexton OVER 14.5 Points + Assists | -110 (DraftKings) | 2.5 Units
PrizePicks Power Play ⚡
Here is a two-pick “Power Play” I’m liking for today's NBA action over on PrizePicks! Nothing is ever a guarantee to hit but I put my own money on these bets so I don't just lightly throw these out there without believing they'll cash! If it hits, it will return 3x the wager.
Jalen Duren MORE than 11.5 Rebounds + Assists
Collin Sexton MORE than 11.5 Points
🆕 Props Edge+ 🆕
In LineStar’s ongoing mission to improve, innovate, and help you reel in some cash, we are introducing Props Edge+ for NBA – available for LineStar Premium users! This tool can help you find value and mispriced odds on player props from sportsbooks and, more specifically, for PrizePicks and UnderDog Fantasy!
Speaking of props, put the Props Edge+ tool to use by signing up for PrizePicks (Promo code: BETFULLY) or Underdog (Promo code: LINESTAR). You'll receive a 100% match on first deposits up to $100 PLUS a free two-month subscription to LineStar Premium. Many people may not realize that you can legally place prop bets in most states using UnderDog (or PrizePicks) – it’s called Pick'Em, and it’s incredibly easy.
That will wrap us up with today’s “Daily Dribble” edition! Once again, you can find me on Twitter or in LineStar chat @Ryan_Humphries. Good luck everyone!