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- Top NBA DFS Plays & Prop Bets 12/29 | Cracking Open a Thursday Six-Pack
Top NBA DFS Plays & Prop Bets 12/29 | Cracking Open a Thursday Six-Pack
Six more games to sink our teeth into tonight! Let’s lock in on some top DFS and prop plays for this slate!
Written By: Ryan Humphries on Twitter & LineStar chat @Ryan_Humphries
Straight Locks🔒 | NBA Props w/ Tyler!
DFS Main Slate Rundown 📰
A rather modest six-game slate lands in the crosshairs this evening! Despite this slate being on the smaller side, there is no shortage of star power available to choose from. Let’s try to locate the best studs for this slate along with some worthy mid-range and value plays! Best of luck!
Today’s Key Injuries:
Thunder: A. Pokusevski - OUT, J. Robinson-Earl - OUT
Hornets: K. Oubre Jr. - Doubtful, D. Smith Jr. - Questionable, N. Richards - Questionable
Cavaliers: C. Osman - Questionable, D. Wade - OUT
Pacers: T. Haliburton - Questionable
Celtics: M. Brogdon - Questionable, B. Griffin - Questionable
Raptors: F. VanVleet - Questionable, P. Achiuwa - Questionable, O. Porter Jr. - OUT
Knicks: RJ Barrett - OUT, J. Brunson - Questionable, O. Toppin - OUT
Spurs: D. Vassell - OUT
Rockets: J. Tate - Questionable, E. Gordon - Questionable
Mavericks: D. Finney-Smith - OUT, R. Bullock - Questionable, M. Kleber - OUT, J. Green - OUT
Main Slate Match-Ups w/ Game Totals & Point Spreads
Note: NBA position designations are never going to perfectly align between the major DFS sites. For the purposes of these newsletters, positional designations will default to DraftKings.
💫 = Favorite Play
Point Guards/Shooting Guards to Consider 🏀
PG Luka Doncic, DAL | DK: $12k, FD: $12.4k | vs. HOU | Cash & GPP
Someone can fact-check me here but I’m quite certain that Luka just put up the highest fantasy score in the DFS era with his 60-21-10 triple-double against the Knicks on Tuesday. Truly one of the best individual performances in NBA history. It’s nearly impossible to ignore him on a small slate like the one we have on tap today. His floor/ceiling combination is simply too strong to pass up. The only real concern here would be the blowout factor as the Mavs take their home court as 9.5-point favorites over the Rockets. If Houston can keep this close, we could easily see another massive Luka game. The Rockets rank 28th in the NBA in defensive efficiency and Luka dropped 50 points, 10 assists, eight rebounds, and three steals when he faced them just last Friday.
PG Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, OKC | DK: $10.1k, FD: $10.8k | @ CHA | Cash & GPP
We’ll highlight back-to-back studs to lead off this guard section and give SGA a look. He continues to play at an All-Star level and has put up at least 52.0 DKFP in four of his last five games. And you might notice that this game sticks out like a sore thumb. The 238.5 O/U set for this game is nearly 10 points higher than the next-closest game total on this slate. The line is also set as a straight-up pick ‘em so, along with ample scoring on both sides, this match-up could go down to the wire. Both teams rank top 10 in pace and the Hornets rank 26th in defensive efficiency while also struggling to defend opposing backcourts. SGA should be another high-priority spend-up option this evening.
PG/SG Immanuel Quickley, NYK | DK: $5k, FD: $6k | @ SAS | Cash & GPP
There is value to be had in the Knicks' backcourt with RJ Barrett ruled out and Jalen Brunson listed as questionable. Even if Jalen Brunson (hip/questionable) suits up, Quickley would still be projected to land in the starting lineup. He logged an absurd 51 minutes in Tuesday’s overtime loss to the Mavs while putting up 42.75 DKFP. Realistically, he could have had a much bigger game were it not for a poor shooting night -- Quickley went 5-21 from the field (1-10 from three-point range). The minutes should be there for Quickley again tonight and the Knicks draw an awesome match-up against a Spurs team that ranks dead last in defensive efficiency.
Other Guards to Consider:
PG LaMelo Ball, CHA | DK: $9.7k, FD: $9k | vs. OKC | GPP/FD Preferred
PG/SG Donovan Mitchell, CLE | DK: $8.6k, FD: $8.9k | @ IND | GPP Preferred
SG/SF Quentin Grimes, NYK | DK: $5.6k, FD: $6.2k | @ SAS | GPP Preferred
PG/SG Malachi Flynn, TOR | DK: $3.9k, FD: $4.9k | vs. MEM | GPP Preferred (If VanVleet is out)
PG/SG Malaki Branham, SAS | DK: $3.4k, FD: $4.1k | vs. NYK | GPP Preferred
PG/SG Miles McBride, NYK | DK: $3.2k, FD: $4.5k | @ SAS | GPP Preferred (Cash play on DK if Brunson is out)
Small Forwards/Power Forwards to Consider 🏀
PF Julius Randle, NYK | DK: $9.5k, FD: $9.5k | @ SAS | Cash & GPP
Randle has been on an absolute tear and he has shown no signs of slowing down. He has strung together four consecutive games with at least 29 points and 52.75+ DKFP while averaging 12.8 rebounds per game. As mentioned already, the Spurs continue to rank dead last in defensive efficiency and Randle has averaged 48.4 FPPG throughout this season in close games (Knicks -5 favorites tonight).
PF PJ Washington, CHA | DK: $5.3k, FD: $6.1k | vs. OKC | Cash & GPP
Washington should be a great bet to handle mid-30s minutes tonight and he stands to benefit from the likely absence of Kelly Oubre Jr. (hand/doubtful). Washington has seen a team-high +4.04% usage bump when Oubre has been off the floor this season, along with a +9.8 per 48-minute fantasy point increase. He’s a strong secondary scoring option to target in this likely high-scoring, fast-paced game against the Thunder.
PF/C Darius Bazley, OKC | DK: $3.2k, FD: $4.8k | @ CHA | DK Preferred
Not a big fan of his price tag on FanDuel, but Bazley is firmly in play as a value play on DraftKings. He may not get the start, but he should see 20+ minutes of run tonight since the Thunder will be without big men Aleksej Pokusevski and Jeremiah Robinson-Earl. We know bigs destroy this Charlotte defense so, even if he’s not playing major minutes, Bazley should be able to stuff the stat sheet during his time on the court this evening.
Other Forwards to Consider:
SF/PF Jayson Tatum, BOS | DK: $10.3k, FD: $11k | vs. LAC | GPP Preferred
SF/PF Kawhi Leonard, LAC | DK: $7.8k, FD: $8.2k | @ BOS | GPP Preferred
SF/PF Scottie Barnes, TOR | DK: $6.7k, FD: $8.2k | vs. MEM | DK Preferred
SF/SG OG Anunoby, TOR | DK: $6.4k, FD: $7.2k | vs. MEM | DK Preferred
SF/PF Jalen Williams, OKC | DK: $5k, FD: $5.6k | @ CHA | GPP Preferred
PF/C Jabari Smith Jr., HOU | DK: $5k, FD: $6.1k | @ DAL | Cash & GPP
PF Jeremy Sochan, SAS | DK: $4.8k, FD: $5.9k | vs. NYK | GPP Preferred
Centers to Consider 🏀
C Jarrett Allen, CLE | DK: $6.3k, FD: $7.3k | @ IND | Cash & GPP
Despite playing 39 minutes in his last game against the Pacers (12/16), Allen was largely a non-factor and ended the night with just 16.25 DKFP. If he gets those amount of minutes against them tonight, I would expect much, much better results. The Pacers typically struggle against opposing fives, ranking 26th versus centers over their last 20 games. Allen has had three days off and he has averaged +10% more FPPG when well-rested this season. I like his chances at a 40+ fantasy point game this evening.
C Mike Muscala, OKC | DK: $3.4k, FD: $3.9k | @ CHA | Cash & GPP
Centers against Charlotte… ya just play ‘em. Muscala will obviously project better if he draws the start with Poku and JRE out tonight. But even if he comes off of the bench, he should play around 20 minutes. 21 minutes was all of the time he needed in his last game to put up 35.0 DKFP.
Other Centers to Consider:
PF/C Pascal Siakam, TOR | DK: $10.2k, FD: $10.5k | vs. MEM | GPP Preferred
PF/C Christian Wood, DAL | DK: $7.9k, FD: $8.3k | vs. HOU | GPP Preferred
C Alperen Sengun, HOU | DK: $5.9k, FD: $6.8k | @ DAL | GPP Preferred
C Mason Plumlee, CHA | DK: $5.8k, FD: $6.4k | vs. OKC | Cash & GPP
C Mitchell Robinson, NYK | DK: $5.4k, FD: $6.6k | @ SAS | Cash & GPP/DK Preferred
C Robert Williams, BOS | DK: $4.3k, FD: $5.2k | vs. LAC | GPP Preferred
NBA Player Props 📊
Player Prop or Bet | Odds | Unit Bet Size
Norman Powell OVER 14.5 Points + Assists | -125 (DraftKings) | 2.0 Units
Brandon Clarke OVER 14.5 Points + Rebounds | -108 (Caesars) | 2.0 Units
PrizePicks Power Play ⚡
Here is a two-pick “Power Play” I’m liking for today's NBA action over on PrizePicks! Nothing is ever a guarantee to hit but I put my own money on these bets so I don't just lightly throw these out there without believing they'll cash! If it hits, it will return 3x the wager.
Luka Doncic MORE than 7.5 Free Throws Made
Paul George MORE than 10.5 REBS + ASTS
🆕 Props Edge+ 🆕
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Speaking of props, put the Props Edge+ tool to use by signing up for PrizePicks (Promo code: BETFULLY) or Underdog (Promo code: LINESTAR). You'll receive a 100% match on first deposits up to $100 PLUS a free two-month subscription to LineStar Premium. Many people may not realize that you can legally place prop bets in most states using UnderDog (or PrizePicks) – it’s called Pick'Em, and it’s incredibly easy.
That will wrap us up with today’s “Daily Dribble” edition! Once again, you can find me on Twitter or in LineStar chat @Ryan_Humphries. Good luck everyone!