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- Top NBA DFS Plays & Prop Bets 1/24 | Favoring a Balanced Approach on Tonight's Seven-Game Slate
Top NBA DFS Plays & Prop Bets 1/24 | Favoring a Balanced Approach on Tonight's Seven-Game Slate
Back to the well with another seven-game slate! Let’s get down to business and locate some top DFS plays and props to target this evening!
Written By: Ryan Humphries on Twitter & LineStar chat @Ryan_Humphries
Straight Locks🔒 | NBA Props w/ Shannon & Tyler!
DFS Main Slate Rundown 📰
For the mid-sized slate fans, we hit the sweet spot again with another seven-game slate on tap this Tuesday night. Let’s get the ball rolling and have another successful night! Best of luck!
Today’s Key Injuries:
Bulls: G. Dragic - OUT, Jav. Green - OUT
Pacers: T. Haliburton - OUT, A. Nembhard - Questionable
Celtics: J. Brown - OUT, M. Smart - OUT, M. Brogdon - OUT, A. Horford - OUT
Heat: D. Robinson - OUT, N. Jovic - OUT
Cavaliers: D. Mitchell - Probable
Knicks: M. Robinson - OUT, I. Quickley - Questionable
Nuggets: N. Jokic - Questionable, M. Porter Jr. - OUT, B. Hyland - Questionable
Pelicans: Z. Williamson - OUT, B. Ingram - Doubtful, N. Marshall - Questionable
Wizards: K. Porzingis - OUT, K. Nunn - Questionable (recently traded from LAL)
Mavericks: C. Wood - OUT, M. Kleber - OUT
Hornets: L. Ball - Questionable, K. Oubre Jr. - OUT, G. Hayward - OUT, C. Martin - Doubtful
Suns: D. Booker - OUT, D. Ayton - Doubtful, C. Payne - OUT, L. Shamet - OUT
Clippers: J. Wall - OUT, L. Kennard - OUT
Lakers: L. James - Questionable, A. Davis - OUT, L. Walker IV - OUT, R. Hachimura - OUT (recently traded from WAS), A. Reaves - OUT
Main Slate Match-Ups w/ Game Totals & Point Spreads
Note: NBA position designations are never going to perfectly align between the major DFS sites. For the purposes of these newsletters, positional designations will default to DraftKings.
💫 = Favorite Play
Point Guards/Shooting Guards to Consider 🏀
💫PG Chris Paul, PHX | DK: $7.5k, FD: $8.2k | vs. CHA | Cash & GPP
The Suns remain thin in the backcourt with Devin Booker, Cam Payne, and Landry Shamet all ruled out for tonight’s game. Deandre Ayton (illness/doubtful) also looks unlikely to suit up for the third consecutive game. With those four players off the court, Chris Paul has handled a massive +7.69% usage boost this season along with a +13.16 per 48-minute fantasy point increase. Those guys were out of the lineup in the Suns’ previous game on Sunday versus the Grizzlies. Paul went on to play 38 minutes, despite coming off of a seven-game injury absence himself, and he put up 22 points, 11 assists, six rebounds, three steals, and one block -- good for 54.5 DKFP. He draws an even better match-up at home tonight against the Hornets, who rank 10th in pace and 27th in defensive efficiency, and head into Phoenix on the second leg of a back-to-back.
💫PG TJ McConnell, IND | DK: $6.1k, FD: $6.6k | vs. CHI | Cash & GPP
McConnell is sure to be one of the most popular plays on this slate but he has been too good to ignore and his DFS salaries are still too low given his recent production. He’s been thriving in an increased role off of the bench while Tyrese Haliburton (knee/elbow) has been sidelined across the last six games. Haliburton remains out tonight. McConnell finally garnered his first start of the season against the Suns on Saturday, and boy did he not disappoint. He logged 39 minutes and poured in an 18/10/12 triple-double with a pair of steals (55.5 DKFP). The Pacers would be wise to give McConnell another start tonight against Chicago, who ranks in the bottom third against starting PGs over their last 20 games, allowing 38.79 FPPG to the position.
PG/SG Derrick White, BOS | DK: $5.4k, FD: $5.7k | @ MIA | Cash & GPP
Folks may not be overly excited to go back to White after he put up a rather mediocre 27.5 DKFP in 27 minutes last night when both Marcus Smart and Malcolm Brogdon were out. Smart and Brogdon remain out tonight. Jaylen Brown and Al Horford will also be sitting out the second leg of the back-to-back. In 60.2 minutes with those four players off the court this season, White has averaged a +5.87% usage boost and a significant +16.59 per 48-minute fantasy point increase. It’s a rather ugly match-up against the Heat who play very slow (28th in pace) and boast a strong defense (3rd in def. efficiency). However, White has put up at least 24.5 DKFP in three previous meetings against Miami this season but averaged 25.5 Min/Gm in those three contests. He should project closer to 32-35 minutes tonight and could very well be the second scoring option for the Celtics behind Jayson Tatum. Consider Derrick White to be a strong floor play with decent potential 40+ FP upside.
Other Guards to Consider:
PG Luka Doncic, DAL | DK: $12.6k, FD: $11.9k | vs. WAS | GPP Preferred
PG Jalen Brunson, NYK | DK: $8k, FD: $8.4k | vs. CLE | GPP Preferred
💫PG Jamal Murray, DEN | DK: $7k, FD: $8.1k | @ NOP | DK Preferred
PG Dennis Schroder, LAL | DK: $5.5k, FD: $6.2k | vs. LAC | GPP Preferred
PG Kyle Lowry, MIA | DK: $4.8k, FD: $5.9k | vs. BOS | DK Preferred
💫PG Delon Wright, WAS | DK: $4.2k, FD: $5.1k | @ DAL | Cash & GPP
💫PG/SG Alex Caruso, CHI | DK: $4k, FD: $5.8k | @ IND | DK Preferred
PG Payton Pritchard, BOS | DK: $3.7k, FD: $4.1k | MIA | GPP Preferred
SG Corey Kispert, WAS | DK: $3.1k, FD: $4.2k | @ DAL | GPP Preferred (If he’s starting)
Small Forwards/Power Forwards to Consider 🏀
💫SF/PF Kyle Kuzma, WAS | DK: $7.9k, FD: $8.3k | @ DAL | Cash & GPP
Kuz has erupted for 25+ points and 52.0+ DKFP in three of his last four games. He’ll likely benefit from the absence of Kristaps Porzingis (Kuzma: +3.35% USG% w/ KP off the court this season) and will go up against a Mavericks team that ranks 25th in defensive efficiency. Kuzma had a monster 62.75 DKFP outing against the Mavs earlier this season, which featured 36 points, 11 rebounds, and six assists. The Wizards also recently traded away PF Rui Hachimura, who had a high usage role (23% USG%) off of the bench. 20 shot attempts seems like the floor for Kuzma tonight and he’ll bring plenty of 50+ fantasy point upside to lineups tonight. For $7.9k/$8.3k, we’ll take that sort of DFS score every single time.
SF/PF Cameron Johnson, PHX | DK: $5.1k, FD: $5.2k | vs. CHA | GPP Preferred
Cam Johnson has missed the majority of this season with injury but he’ll have to take on a key role tonight for the shorthanded Suns. After being sidelined for 37 games, he returned to action last Thursday against the Nets and needed just 22 minutes to put up 35.5 DKFP. He sat out the following game but was in the starting lineup on Sunday where he struggled to get much going in his 29 minutes played against the Grizzlies, putting up just 16.5 DKFP. Despite the questionable DFS floor, he should be one of three primary scoring options for the Suns tonight alongside Chris Paul and Mikal Bridges. This Hornets match-up is much friendlier than the Grizzlies and, if he finds a groove, there is ample potential for 6x upside or better at his current salaries.
💫SF Deni Avdija, WAS | DK: $4k, FD: $5k | @ DAL | Cash & GPP
Avdija should be in the starting lineup tonight in place of the injured Porzingis and he’ll have a legitimate shot at mid-30s minutes. Given his 0.85 FPPM average on the season, 30+ minutes would likely lead to easy value at these prices. Avdija is one of the rare exceptions who performs better in down-pace games (DAL: 29th in pace) where he has averaged +78% more FPPG. The Mavs represent a plus match-up for opposing frontcourt players so we can comfortably lock Avdija in as a strong value target on tonight’s slate.
Other Forwards to Consider:
PF/C LeBron James, LAL | DK: $11.5k, FD: $11.1k | vs. LAC | GPP Preferred (Note: LeBron is currently questionable)
💫SF/PF Jayson Tatum, BOS | DK: $11.1k, FD: $11.2k | @ MIA | GPP Preferred
PF Jimmy Butler, MIA | DK: $7.6k, FD: $8.6k | vs. BOS | GPP Preferred
SF Mikal Bridges, PHX | DK: $7.2k, FD: $7.8k | vs. CHA | Cash & GPP
SF/SG Bennedict Mathurin, IND | DK: $5.4k, FD: $5.3k | vs. CHI | GPP Preferred
SF/PF Jalen McDaniels, CHA | DK: $5.2k, FD: $5.8k | @ PHX | GPP Preferred
💫PF/C Jericho Sims, NYK| DK: $3.9k, FD: $5k | vs. CLE | DK Preferred
Centers to Consider 🏀
💫C Bam Adebayo, MIA | DK: $8.1k, FD: $8.7k | vs. BOS | Cash & GPP
The center options do feel a bit dicey today but Bam Adebayo is one guy who will almost always bring a great DFS floor to lineups. He’s averaging 44.39 FPPG over his previous 20 starts and he really only had three dud performances in that stretch. The Celtics head into Miami on the second leg of a back-to-back, they have been a below-average team defensively against opposing centers, and Adebayo has put up no fewer than 38.0 DKFP in three meetings with Boston this season.
C Ivica Zubac, LAC | DK: $5.6k, FD: $6.4k | @ LAL | GPP Preferred
If we could guarantee around 35 minutes for Zubac tonight, he’d be a smash play. As it stands now, his minutes fluctuate regularly so he’ll probably need to be reserved for GPPs only. If he gets the big minutes tonight, Zubac draws a dream match-up against the Lakers who have rated out as the worst team in the NBA versus centers over their last 20 games; starting centers are averaging 45.39 FPPG against LAL in that 20-game stretch. Zubac opened up this season with a 45.75 DKFP performance against the Lakers on October 20th when he played 35 minutes. He has also scored below 20 DKFP in six of his last 12 games. So, the floor is low but the ceiling is sizable enough to where Zubac could be in some GPP-winning lineups tonight.
Other Centers to Consider:
C Nikola Jokic, DEN | DK: $11.6k, FD: $11.6k | @ NOP | GPP Preferred (Note: Jokic is currently questionable)
C Mason Plumlee, CHA | DK: $6.8k, FD: $7.9k | @ PHX | DK Preferred
💫C Daniel Gafford, WAS | DK: $4.3k, FD: $5.8k | @ DAL | DK Preferred
C Bismack Biyombo, PHX | DK: $3.6k, FD: $4.6k | vs. CHA | GPP Preferred
💫C Mark Williams, CHA | DK: $3.2k, FD: $4.7k | @ PHX | DK Preferred
NBA Player Props 📊
Player Prop or Bet | Odds | Unit Bet Size
Patrick Williams OVER 1.5 Three-Pointers Made | -105 (DraftKings) | 2.0 Units
Mikal Bridges OVER 3.5 Assists | -122 (FanDuel) | 2.0 Units
PrizePicks Power Play ⚡
Here is a two-pick “Power Play” I’m liking for today's NBA action over on PrizePicks! Nothing is ever a guarantee to hit but I put my own money on these bets so I don't just lightly throw these out there without believing they'll cash! If it hits, it will return 3x the wager.
Kyle Kuzma MORE than 2.5 Three-Pointers Made
Patrick Williams MORE than 1.5 Three-Pointers Made
🆕 Props Edge+ 🆕
In LineStar’s ongoing mission to improve, innovate, and help you reel in some cash, we are introducing Props Edge+ for NBA – available for LineStar Premium users! This tool can help you find value and mispriced odds on player props from sportsbooks and, more specifically, for PrizePicks and UnderDog Fantasy!
Speaking of props, put the Props Edge+ tool to use by signing up for PrizePicks (Promo code: BETFULLY) or Underdog (Promo code: LINESTAR). You'll receive a 100% match on first deposits up to $100 PLUS a free two-month subscription to LineStar Premium. Many people may not realize that you can legally place prop bets in most states using UnderDog (or PrizePicks) – it’s called Pick'Em, and it’s incredibly easy.
That will wrap us up with today’s “Daily Dribble” edition! Once again, you can find me on Twitter or in LineStar chat @Ryan_Humphries. Good luck everyone!