Top NBA DFS Plays & Prop Bets 12/5 | Dissecting Monday's Mid-Sized Slate!

We begin the work week with a juicy eight-game NBA slate! Time to get into some DFS and prop plays to consider this evening!

Written By: Ryan Humphries on Twitter &  LineStar chat @Ryan_Humphries

DFS Main Slate Rundown 📰

Hey, would ya look at that! We actually have a solid mid-sized eight-game slate tonight instead of some super small or chaotically large slate! Let’s have some fun with this one. Best of luck tonight!

Today’s Key Injuries:

Clippers: P. George - Questionable, K. Leonard - Questionable, N. Powell - OUT, L. Kennard - Questionable

Hornets: L. Ball - OUT, G. Hayward - OUT, D. Smith Jr. - OUT

Bucks: K. Middleton - Probable, B. Lopez - Questionable, G. Allen - Questionable

Magic: W. Carter Jr. - OUT, J. Suggs - OUT, M. Bamba - Questionable, C. Okeke - OUT, G. Harris - OUT

Celtics: A. Horford - OUT, M. Brogdon - Questionable

Raptors: P. Achiuwa - OUT, O. Porter Jr. - OUT, J. Hernangomez - Questionable

Thunder: K. Williams - OUT

Hawks: J. Collins - OUT, D. Hunter - OUT

Heat: J. Butler - Questionable, T. Herro - Probable, M. Strus - Probable, H. Highsmith - Probable, G. Vincent - Questionable, D. Dedmon - Questionable, D. Robinson - Probable

Grizzlies: J. Morant - DOUBTFUL, D. Bane - OUT, J. Jackson Jr. - OUT, J. Konchar - DOUBTFUL

76ers: J. Harden - Questionable, T. Maxey - OUT, G. Niang - Questionable

Rockets: J. Tate - OUT

Suns: C. Paul - OUT, C. Johnson - OUT, T. Craig - OUT

Mavericks: C. Wood - Questionable

Pacers: T. Haliburton - OUT, TJ McConnell - Questionable, C. Duarte - OUT

Warriors: A. Wiggins - OUT, J. Poole - Questionable

Main Slate Match-Ups w/ Game Totals & Point Spreads

Note: NBA position designations are never going to perfectly align between the major DFS sites. For the purposes of these newsletters, positional designations will default to DraftKings.

💫 = Favorite Play

Point Guards/Shooting Guards to Consider 🏀

💫PG Trae Young, ATL | DK: $9.6k, FD: $9.9k | vs. OKC | Cash & GPP

Apparently, there was a little player/coach verbal altercation between Young and head coach Nate McMillan at the Hawks Friday morning shootaround. Young ended up sitting out that night with a shoulder injury but he doesn’t carry an injury designation today. We’ll just have to assume that whatever happened between Young and McMillan on Friday is water under the bridge and that the Hawks' star guard will get right back to his usual minutes and workload. Young has posted three 50+ DKFP performances in his last four starts and the Hawks enter this game with a 121.5 implied point total (2nd highest on the slate). Young has averaged a points/assist double-double at home this season (27.5 PPG, 10.3 APG) and he’ll step in a strong option if you’re spending up on a guard today.

💫SG/SF Dillon Brooks, MEM | DK: $6.2k, FD: $5.9k | vs. MIA | Cash & GPP

The Grizzlies are looking mighty shorthanded this evening. Ja Morant and John Konchar are both doubtful to play, Desmond Bane continues to be sidelined, and Jaren Jackson Jr. will be absent tonight as well. When those players have been off the court this season, Brooks has increased his per 48-minute production by +12.9 fantasy points. It’s not an ideal match-up with a Heat squad that plays slow and ranks top 10 in defensive efficiency, but Brooks will be asked to take on a primary scoring role tonight and he could see an increase in his peripheral stats as well.

💫PG/SG Andrew Nembhard, IND | DK: $4.2k, FD: $4.9k | @ GSW | Cash & GPP

Nembhard sets up as a strong value option this evening with Tyrese Haliburton already ruled out for a second game. Nembhard has been stellar in his last two games where he posted performances that earned him 37.0 DKFP and 38.5 DKFP. And despite blowouts in both of those games, Nembhard still averaged 36 minutes played. I try not to predict blowouts, but it is a decent possibility that the Warriors (-11) can take care of the shorthanded Pacers with ease. With that said, Nembhard seems relatively “blowout proof” and, at these low DFS salaries, it’ll be difficult for him to post a complete dud.

Other Guards to Consider:

 

PG/SG Tyler Herro, MIA | DK: $7.1k, FD: $7.7k | @ MEM | GPP Preferred

SG/SF Bennedict Mathurin, IND | DK: $5.4k, FD: $5.5k | @ GSW | GPP Preferred

PG/SG Malcolm Brogdon, BOS | DK: $5k, FD: $5.1k | @ TOR | GPP Preferred

💫SG/SF AJ Griffin, ATL | DK: $5k, FD: $4.4k | vs. OKC | Cash & GPP

PG Tyus Jones, MEM | DK: $4.3k, FD: $5.2k | vs. MIA | Cash & GPP

PG TJ McConnell, IND | DK: $3.9k, FD: $4.2k | @ GSW | GPP Preferred (Assuming he plays)

Small Forwards/Power Forwards to Consider 🏀

PF/C Pascal Siakam, TOR | DK: $9.5k, FD: $10k | vs. BOS | GPP Preferred

The forward positions feel a bit odd on this slate but it’s never a bad idea to keep Pascal Siakam in your GPP player pool. He’s coming off his best game since returning from his injury absence. Against the Magic on Saturday, Siakam came close to another triple-double by pouring in 26 points, 10 assists, and eight rebounds. Boston is on the second game of a B2B but this game is expected to be a close one with Toronto favored by 1.5 points at home. If Siakam pushed for mid-30s minutes, he could certainly put up a 6x fantasy score.

PF Dario Saric, PHX | DK: $3.3k, FD: $3.8k | @ DAL | DK Preferred

Let’s highlight a couple of cheap forward options on this slate, shall we? Saric has landed in the Suns’ starting lineup for the last two games and logged 21 minutes on both occasions. It’s not a massive minutes workload, but thanks to Saric’s (0.95 FPPM), ~20 minutes is likely enough for him to hit value… especially at only $3,300 on DraftKings. The Mavericks have ranked dead last against power forwards over their last 20 games.

💫SF/PF Anthony Lamb, GSW | DK: $3k, FD: $3.8k | vs. IND | Cash & GPP (Unless he’s not starting)

Andrew Wiggins has been ruled out tonight. In both games where Wiggins has been out this season (11/4 and 11/21), Lamb slid into the starting lineup. In those games, he played 37 and 34 minutes and put up 29.25 DKFP and 20.0 DKFP. Lamb is not incredibly efficient as far as fantasy scoring goes, but he does average a respectable 0.78 FPPM. If he handles 30+ minutes in this easy match-up with the Pacers, he should have no issues hitting value.

Other Forwards to Consider:

 

💫SF/SG Terry Rozier, CHA | DK: $7.8k, FD: $7.1k | vs. LAC | FD Preferred

SF/PF Tobias Harris, PHI | DK: $7k, FD: $6.9k | @ HOU | Cash & GPP

SF/SG Tim Hardaway Jr., DAL | DK: $4.6k, FD: $5.2k | vs. PHX | GPP Preferred

PF/C Brandon Clarke, MEM | DK: $3.7k, FD: $4.6k | vs. MIA | DK Preferred

Centers to Consider 🏀

💫C Clint Capela, ATL | DK: $6.4k, FD: $6.2k | vs. OKC | Cash & GPP

Capela sets up as a strong option out of the mid-range. He has been providing an excellent floor nearly every game recently -- over his last 11 games, he has scored between 29.25 DKFP and 45.25 DKFP on 10 occasions. OKC is also a plus match-up for centers. The Thunder have ranked 24th against opposing centers this season. The Hawks have had three days of rest heading into tonight and Capela averages 41.44 FPPG (+29%) when he is well-rested.

C Mason Plumlee, CHA | DK: $5.4k, FD: $5.5k | vs. LAC | GPP Preferred

If Plumlee gets 30+ minutes, he’s typically going to return good-to-great value on his mid-$5k DFS salaries. He has three 35+ FP performances in his last five games and has averaged 1.05 FPPM this season. Due to multiple injuries, the Hornets have plenty of usage to go around and this is a fairly neutral match-up against the Clippers who have ranked 15th against centers this season.

Other Centers to Consider:

 

C Joel Embiid, PHI | DK: $11.4k, FD: $11.6k | @ HOU | GPP Preferred

💫C Bam Adebayo, MIA | DK: $8k, FD: $8.9k | @ MEM | Cash & GPP

C Kevon Looney, GSW | DK: $4.5k, FD: $4.5k | vs. IND | GPP Preferred

C Jeremiah Robinson-Earl, OKC | DK: $4.3k, FD: $4.7k | @ ATL | GPP Preferred

NBA Player Props 📊

Player Prop or Bet | Odds | Unit Bet Size

Monday Transparency Report

Season-to-Date Profits/Losses: +1.32 Units | Overall Record (thru 12/2): 29-28

Previous Two Week’s Profits/Losses: -13.39 Units | Previous Week’s Record: 5-11

Absolutely brutal two-week stretch for the props. Quite a few bad beats have eaten up most of the early season profits but I’m determined to turn this ship around and get back on track! We can’t be dipping into the red!

Buddy Hield UNDER 3.5 Assists | +120 (FanDuel) | 2.0 Units

Hield has hit the under on this assist prop in 10 straight games and in 78% of games this season overall. Tyrese Haliburton, the NBA’s assist leader, will not be available tonight but in 136 minutes played with Haliburton off the court this season, Hield’s assist rate has actually gone down. There’s also a decent chance this game trends toward a Warriors blowout which could limit Hield’s minutes. So we’ll take the under on 3.5 assists in this spot.

Trae Young OVER 37.5 Points + Assists | -110 (DraftKings) | 2.0 Units

In the last four games where Young has played and the Hawks have put up at least 115 points, Young has posted points + assist totals of 44, 49, 42, and 45. The Hawks own a 121.5 implied point total today so this is a trend that may continue. After the reported dispute between Young and HC Nate McMillan on Friday, we can also inject a bit of a “player vs. head coach” narrative here with Young looking to make a statement tonight. Either way, Young should have a great game against OKC tonight in what will be a fast-paced, high-scoring affair.

PrizePicks Two-Pick Power Play ⚡

Here is a two-pick “Power Play” I’m liking for today's NBA action over on PrizePicks! Nothing is ever a guarantee to hit but I put my own money on these bets so I don't just lightly throw these out there without believing they'll cash! If it hits, it will return 3x the wager.

Trae Young MORE than 43.5 Fantasy Score

Luka Doncic MORE than 2.5 3-PT Made

🆕 Props Edge+ 🆕

In LineStar’s ongoing mission to improve, innovate, and help you reel in some cash, we are introducing Props Edge+ for NBA – available for LineStar Premium users! This tool can help you find value and mispriced odds on player props from sportsbooks and, more specifically, for PrizePicks and UnderDog Fantasy!

Speaking of props, put the Props Edge+ tool to use by signing up for PrizePicks (Promo code: BETFULLY) or Underdog (Promo code: LINESTAR). You'll receive a 100% match on first deposits up to $100 PLUS a free two-month subscription to LineStar Premium. Many people may not realize that you can legally place prop bets in most states using UnderDog (or PrizePicks) – it’s called Pick'Em, and it’s incredibly easy.

That will wrap us up with today’s “Daily Dribble” edition! Once again, you can find me on Twitter or in LineStar chat @Ryan_Humphries. Good luck everyone!