Written By: Ryan Humphries on Twitter & LineStar chat @Ryan_Humphries

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NBA DFS & Props Shows w/ Shannon & Tyler!

DFS Main Slate Rundown 📰

Finally! A proper NBA slate hits the board with 11 games on tap today! Tomorrow will be another two-game slate (so no newsletter) with the In-Season Tournament semifinals going down, but then we’ll get back to it on Friday with a hefty 13-game slate. The IST Championship will be played on Saturday so after that is all wrapped up, we’ll be back to a more routine regular season schedule next week.

Anyhow, onto today’s slate! Teams have received plenty of rest in recent days so, while there are still numerous injury impacts today, for the most part, we don’t have many “questionable” designations to track for a slate of this size. Most of the banged-up players have had time to heal up their minor injuries and aren’t listed on the injury report while those guys dealing with more serious ailments have already been ruled out well in advance of tonight’s games tipping off. That said, the three “questionable” designations that should have the most bearing on the slate will include Anthony Edwards, Kyrie Irving, and Jamal Murray. And I suppose you could throw guys like Jordan Poole, Mark Williams, and Anfernee Simons onto that list as well. Alright, enough rambling, let’s get into it! Best of luck!

Today’s Key Injuries

Magic: W. Carter Jr. - OUT, M. Fultz - OUT, J. Isaac - Questionable

Cavaliers: C. LeVert - OUT, D. Wade - Questionable

Grizzlies: M. Smart - OUT, L. Kennard - OUT

Pistons: M. Bagley III - Questionable, J. Harris - Doubtful

76ers: D. Melton - Probable

Wizards: J. Poole - Questionable, D. Wright - OUT, L. Shamet - Questionable, J. Davis - Questionable

Heat: B. Adebayo - OUT, T. Herro - OUT, H. Highsmith - OUT

Raptors: None

Nets: B. Simmons - OUT, L. Walker IV - OUT

Hawks: J. Johnson - OUT

Spurs: None

Timberwolves: A. Edwards - Questionable, J. McDaniels - OUT

Hornets: L. Ball - OUT, M. Williams - Questionable

Bulls: Z. LaVine - OUT, A. Caruso - Probable, T. Craig - Questionable

Thunder: None

Rockets: T. Eason - Questionable, J. Landale - Questionable

Jazz: L. Markkanen - OUT, J. Clarkson - OUT, K. Olynyk - OUT

Mavericks: G. Williams - Questionable, J. Green - OUT, M. Kleber - OUT

Trailblazers: J. Grant - OUT, D. Ayton - Doubtful, A. Simons - Questionable (would be first game since 10/25)

Warriors: C. Paul - Probable, A. Wiggins - Probable, G. Payton II - OUT

Nuggets: J. Murray - Questionable, A. Gordon - Probable

Clippers: M. Plumlee - OUT

Main Slate Match-Ups w/ Game Totals & Point Spreads

Top DraftKings & FanDuel DFS Plays

Note: NBA position designations are never going to perfectly align between the major DFS sites. For the purposes of these newsletters, positional designations will default to DraftKings.

Point Guards/Shooting Guards to Consider 🏀

PG Luka Doncic, DAL | DK: $11.7k, FD: $12.4k | vs. UTA

Despite it coming in a losing effort, Luka had perhaps his best individual performance of his career in the Mavs’ last game on Saturday versus the Thunder where he poured in a 36-point, 15-rebound, 18-assist triple-double to go along with two blocks and two steals. It was a statistical onslaught that earned him 93.25 DKFP/86 FDFP. Though, it is worth noting that Kyrie Irving sat out that game. Irving (foot) is questionable for today’s game but it does seem as if he’s likely to play. Nonetheless, Doncic remains firmly on the DFS radar if you’re feeling the spend-up. As mentioned in the intro, every team playing today has had several days of rest with the small In-Season Tournament slates going on. Doncic has averaged +25% more FPPG when well-rested. He has also averaged +19.9% more FPPG at home this season. Both of those positive trends line up today as the Mavs host the Jazz. This will be a slight negative pace differential for the Mavs (DAL: 9th in pace, UTA: 15th in pace) but we can still expect a ton of possessions in this game. Both of these teams rank bottom-eight in defensive rating as well which leads to a 230.5 over/under being pinned here -- the 3rd highest total of the slate. There will be some moderate blowout risk attached to Luka, due to Dallas being -10 home favorites, but it’s not enough to sway me off utilizing him on a day where the Mavs own a 120.5 implied team total (T-3rd highest on the slate). Luka’s ceiling really opens up if Kyrie is eventually ruled out but, as is, he’s bringing an excellent floor to DFS lineups today and can still go for 70+ FP even if Irving suits up.

Update: Kyrie Irving will play today. Doncic is still a worthy spend-up play but the DFS ceiling takes a hit.

PG/SG Cam Thomas, BKN | DK: $7.1k, FD: $6.7k | @ ATL

Thomas missed most of November’s action with an ankle injury but he returned two games ago where he played 25 minutes off of the bench. He re-entered the starting rotation on Saturday against the Magic and played 38 minutes while hoisting 23 shot attempts. We’ll assume he’s back in the starting lineup tonight, so minutes shouldn’t be a concern, and he clearly still has the green light to shoot it 20+ times a game. Thomas has also handled a team-high +4.3% usage increase in 136 minutes played without Ben Simmons and Lonnie Walker IV on the floor this season (both players are out tonight). In general, we’re also going to want some exposure to this match-up that boasts a slate-high 244 over/under to go along with a close spread (ATL -3.5). This will be an excellent pace-up spot for the Nets (23rd in pace) against the Hawks (3rd in pace) and Atlanta also ranks 26th in DEFRTG. Thomas is averaging 44.5 DKFP/43.2 FDFP in high-scoring games this season so if that trend continues, he’s going to look like a strong guard value out of the mid-range on both sites. Based on his “high-scoring game” fantasy point averages compared to his DFS salaries on today’s slate, it works out to 6.3x value on DraftKings and 6.5x value on FanDuel.

SG Bojan Bogdanovic, DET | DK: $5.1k, FD: $6.1k | vs. MEM

A couple of notes here. First, here’s a reminder that this is the Detroit Bogdanovic we’re discussing here and not the Hawks’ Bogdan Bogdanovic. Second, Bojan Bogdanovic is SG eligible on DK, but SF/PF eligible on FD. He’s generally going to be a more favorable target on DraftKings, both because of the $1,000 price discrepancy, and due to DK’s three-point bonus. Bogdanovic made his season debut in Detroit’s last game on Saturday against Cleveland. He provided some much-needed shooting depth off of the bench and played a somewhat surprising 27 minutes. In that time, he poured in 22 points on 7-of-15 shooting, and 10 of his FGA came from beyond the arc. Bogdanovic is quite reliant on pure scoring, so it can be a bit difficult to trust him from a fantasy floor standpoint. That said, his $5,100 DraftKings price is just too appealing in this match-up. We know he’s going to chuck up plenty of threes and this looks like the perfect match-up for Bogdanovic’s playstyle. The Grizzlies have allowed both the highest three-point percentage (39.9%) and the highest opponent percentage of points from three-pointers (39.4%). To be clear, he’s still playable on FanDuel, but he brings more 6x-8x potential to DraftKings lineups today.

Other Guards to Consider

PG Trae Young, ATL | DK: $10.3k, FD: $10k | vs. BKN

PG Tyrese Maxey, PHI | DK: $9.4k, FD: $9.2k | @ WAS

SG Anthony Edwards, MIN | DK: $9k, FD: $8.8k | vs. SAS (Edwards is currently questionable)

PG/SF Cade Cunningham, DET | DK: $8.6k, FD: $8.5k | vs. MEM

PG Fred VanVleet, HOU | DK: $8.2k, FD: $7.7k | vs. OKC

PG/SG Dejounte Murray, ATL | DK: $8.1k, FD: $8k | vs. BKN

PG/SG Terry Rozier, CHA | DK: $8.1k, FD: $8.4k | @ CHI

PG/SG Spencer Dinwiddie, BKN | DK: $7.9k, FD: $6.6k | @ ATL (FD Preferred)

PG Coby White, CHI | DK: $6.9k, FD: $7.4k | vs. CHA

PG Reggie Jackson, DEN | DK: $6.1k, FD: $5.9k | @ LAC (Only if J. Murray is out)

PG/SG Collin Sexton, UTA | DK: $5.8k, FD: $5.2k | @ DAL

PG Killian Hayes, DET | DK: $5.4k, FD: $5.4k | vs. MEM

PG/SG Cason Wallace, OKC | DK: $3.4k, FD: $4.4k | @ HOU (DK Preferred dart throw)

Small Forwards/Power Forwards to Consider 🏀

PF/C Victor Wembanyama, SAS | DK: $9k, FD: $9k | @ MIN

The big spend-ups will be more at the guard and center positions on this slate, and the forward player pool isn’t exactly top-heavy with fantasy superstars, to begin with. But, if you are looking to go against the grain today, Wemby makes plenty of sense at a flat $9k on both sites. He’s finding a bit more consistency as of late, scoring at least 52.0 DKFP/ 54.4 FDFP in four of his last six games. He also hasn’t played since last Thursday and Wembanyama has averaged +10% more FPPG when well-rested. The Timberwolves are not a team I love to target. Minnesota is the No. 1 ranked team in defensive rating and they do not play particularly fast (19th in pace). That said, Wemby did go off for 56.25 DKFP/49 FDFP when these two teams met back on November 10th and he stuffed the stat sheet with 29 points, nine rebounds, four assists, four blocks, and a steal. The fact that he can go off for 5+ steals/blocks in any given game adds so much to his upside and, over his last five games, Wemby is averaging exactly 5.0 STL+BLK/gm to go along with a double-double average (19.3 PPG, 10.0 RPG, 3.0 APG). The Spurs have not won a game since November 2nd (active 14-game losing streak) and there are often some blowout concerns (SAS +12 tonight) with any SAS starter but, if San Antonio keeps this game close, it’ll likely be on the shoulders of another big Wemby performance.

SF/PF DeMar DeRozan, CHI | DK: $8k, FD: $7.7k | vs. CHA

DeRozan is almost always going to avoid a complete dud performance by providing a 30+ FP floor on a nightly basis. However, for these salaries, 30 fantasy points out of DeRozan isn’t exactly going to net you any takedowns. But the key today is the absence of Zach Lavine (foot/out). In 261 minutes with LaVine off the floor this season, DeRozan has handled a team-high +4% usage boost to go along with +10.2 fantasy points per 48 minutes. He put up 46.75 DKFP/43 FDFP with LaVine out in the previous game versus the Pelicans and he’ll receive an even better match-up today. The Bulls rank 30th in pace, so every team is going to be a pace-up match-up for them -- but it’s a sizable uptempo bump versus the Hornets (14th in pace). More notably, the Hornets rank dead last in defensive rating. DeRozan, who also averaged +12% more FPPG when well-rested, makes for a reliable mid-range play this evening.

PF Jabari Walker, POR | DK: $4.4k, FD: $4.3k | @ GSW

Forward Jerami Grant (concussion/out) will be missing his first game of the season tonight while center Deandre Ayton is listed as doubtful. I’m not confident that the Trailblazers will give Jabari Walker the starting nod, but he will need to play additional minutes one way or another with Portland lacking the capable big bodies. Walker has averaged a respectable 0.95 FPPM this season and should play anywhere between 24 and 30 minutes tonight. And it may actually be better, from a DFS standpoint, if he continues to play off the bench. That role would better protect him from a potential blowout with the Warriors (-13) being the heaviest favorites on the slate.

Other Forwards to Consider

SF/PF Jimmy Butler, MIA | DK: $9.5k, FD: $8.6k | @ TOR (FD Preferred)

PF/C Karl-Anthony Towns, MIN | DK: $9.3k, FD: $9.4k | vs. SAS (Preferred if A. Edwards sits)

SF/PG Scottie Barnes, TOR | DK: $8.8k, FD: $8.9k | vs. MIA

PF Kawhi Leonard, LAC | DK: $8.1k, FD: $8.7k | vs. DEN (DK Preferred)

PF/C Draymond Green, GSW | DK: $6.8k, FD: $6.3k | vs. POR

SF/PF De’Andre Hunter, ATL | DK: $5.7k, FD: $5.5k | vs. BKN

PF/C PJ Washington, CHA | DK: $5.4k, FD: $6.1k | @ CHI (DK Preferred)

SF/PF Patrick Williams, CHI | DK: $5.2k, FD: $5.6k | vs. CHA

SF Vince Williams Jr., MEM | DK; $4.2k, FD: $3.9k | @ DET

PF Nicolas Batum, PHI | DK: $4.1k, FD: $4.7k | @ WAS (DK Preferred - assuming he’s in starting LU)

PF/C Kenrich Williams, OKC | DK: $3.3k, FD: $3.9k | @ HOU (DK Preferred)

Centers to Consider 🏀

C Alperen Sengun, HOU | DK: $8.9k, FD: $8.9k | vs. OKC

There are a few value plays here and there on this slate but, since the DFS sites have had time to adjust salaries to most of the more notable injuries, there is far from a plethora of viable cheapies to choose from. That will make it a bit more challenging to get up to guys like Jokic and Embiid (both are still great plays if you can get to them) at the center position. Going with a guy like Sengun still gives you plenty of upside at a sub-$9k price tag. It’s also nice that he’s on a bit of a tear right now, putting up 50+ FP in four of his last six games. OKC has been a terrific match-up for opposing bigs this season -- they’ve ranked 28th against starting centers over their last 20 games and they are also 28th in rebounding%. At the very least, Sengun won’t burn you, but this does set up as another spot for a 50-burger.

C Duop Reath, POR | DK: $3.2k, FD: $4k | @ GSW

I may be wrong but I’m assuming the Trailblazers’ injury news (J. Grant - out, D. Ayton - doubtful) wasn’t released until after DFS salaries for this slate were already locked in, so the Portland frontcourt is where we can locate some pretty obvious value today. With Ayton not expected to suit up, Reath should slide into the starting rotation. He has averaged 0.95 FPPM on the season and, as long as he logs anywhere between 20 and 32 minutes, he should have no problems hitting value at these rock-bottom DFS prices, and his ceiling is legitimately in 10x territory if he lands on the higher end of those potential minutes. The Warriors rank 25th against starting centers over their last 20 games and, even in the event of a blowout, Reath probably wouldn’t be limited much, if at all.

Other Centers to Consider

C Nikola Jokic, DEN | DK: $12.5k, FD: $12.6k | @ LAC

C Joel Embiid, PHI | DK: $11.6k, FD: $12.3k | @ WAS

C Chet Holmgren, OKC | DK: $7.9k, FD: $8.4k | @ HOU

C Rudy Gobert, MIN | DK: $7.3k, FD: $8.3k | vs. SAS (DK Preferred - Slight bump if A. Edwards sits)

C Walker Kessler, UTA | DK: $6.3k, FD: $6.5k | @ DAL

C Ivica Zubac, LAC | DK: $5.8k, FD: $6.6k | vs. DEN

C Daniel Gafford, WAS | DK: $5.5k, FD: $6k | vs. PHI

C Orlando Robinson, MIA | DK: $5k, FD: $4.5k | @ TOR (Assuming he starts)

C Nick Richards, CHA | DK: $3.7k, FD: $4.4k | @ CHI (Only if M. Williams is out)

C Moses Brown, POR | DK: $3k, FD: $3.6k | @ GSW (Risky GPP punt)

PrizePicks NBA Power Play ⚡

Here is a two-pick “Power Play” I’m liking for today's NBA action over on PrizePicks! Nothing is ever a guarantee to hit but I put my own money on these bets so I don't just lightly throw these out there without believing they'll cash! If it hits, it will return 3x the wager.

Luka Doncic MORE than 29.0 Fantasy Score (1st Half)

Ivica Zubac MORE than 11.5 Points + Rebs + Asts (1st Half)

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That will wrap us up with today’s “Daily Dribble” edition! Once again, you can find me on Twitter or in LineStar chat @Ryan_Humphries. Good luck everyone!