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Top NBA DFS Plays & Prop Bets 1/27 | Darius Garland is Poised for Another Star Performance
We’ll kick off a big sports weekend with a Friday five-game NBA slate! Let’s buckle up and hone in on some top DFS plays and props to target tonight!
Written By: Ryan Humphries on Twitter & LineStar chat @Ryan_Humphries
Straight Locks🔒 | NBA Props w/ Shannon & Tyler!
DFS Main Slate Rundown 📰
It’s a rather quiet Friday evening in the NBA with just five games on the schedule. Things are, of course, less chaotic on these smaller slates with the trade-off being increased difficulty when it comes to finding worthy value plays. If we want to jam in studs like Giannis, Steph, Ja, or SGA, we’ll have to get a little creative with those mid-range and cheap plays. Let’s step up to the challenge and crush it! Best of luck!
Today’s Key Injuries:
Bucks: G. Antetokounmpo - Probable, B. Portis - OUT, S. Ibaka - OUT, M. Beachamp - Questionable, AJ Green - Questionable
Pacers: T. Haliburton - OUT, M. Turner - Questionable, A. Nembhard - Questionable, A. Nesmith - Questionable
Grizzlies: D. Bane - Questionable, S. Adams - OUT, J. Konchar - OUT
Timberwolves: K. Towns - OUT, R. Gobert - Questionable, T. Prince - OUT
Magic: C. Okeke - OUT, J. Isaac - OUT, K. Harris - Questionable
Heat: M. Strus - Probable, C. Martin - Probable, H. Highsmith - Probable, N. Jovic - OUT, D. Robinson - OUT
Cavaliers: D. Mitchell - Doubtful, K. Love - OUT, R. Rubio - OUT
Thunder: L. Dort - OUT, A. Pokusevski - OUT, J. Robinson-Earl - OUT
Raptors: None
Warriors: A. Wiggins - Questionable, A. Iguodala - Questionable
Main Slate Match-Ups w/ Game Totals & Point Spreads
Top DraftKings & FanDuel DFS Plays
Note: NBA position designations are never going to perfectly align between the major DFS sites. For the purposes of these newsletters, positional designations will default to DraftKings.
💫 = Favorite Play
Point Guards/Shooting Guards to Consider 🏀
💫SG/SF Anthony Edwards, MIN | DK: $9k, FD: $9.2k | vs. MEM | Cash & GPP
Consistency is not typically Anthony Edwards’ M.O. but he is turning that narrative around as of late with seven games of at least 44.25 DKFP in his last eight. Realistically, he has been playing more like a $10k player as of late and he has a pair of great performances against the Grizzlies this season -- 45.5 DKFP on 11/11 & 56.75 DKFP on 11/30. From a DFS perspective, this game possesses arguably the most appeal of the night. The match-up features a lofty 238.0 over/under with the T-Wolves stepping in as slight +3-point underdogs on their home court. Edwards is putting up a ton of shots (21.4 FGA/Gm L5Gms) which has led to 30.2 PPG over his last five. His peripherals have been rock-solid as well and he’s snagging 3.2 STL+BLK/Gm in his last five contests. Steals and blocks are not easily “forecasted” but when a high-usage player, like Edwards, can rack those premium DFS stats up, the ceiling goes through the roof… much like the 71.0 DKFP Edwards put up against Houston six days ago which featured three steals and three blocks.
💫PG Darius Garland, CLE | DK: $8.3k, FD: $8.5k | @ OKC | Cash & GPP
Last night, Garland proved once again that he is well worth his mid $8k DFS salaries when Donovan Mitchell (groin/doubtful) is off the court. Garland wasn’t forced to play massive minutes against the Rockets yesterday as the Cavs cruised to an 18-point victory. But, in 33 minutes, his 26 points, four rebounds, nine assists, and three steals resulted in eeeeasy value -- 52.5 DKFP. With Mitchell not expected to suit up again tonight (officially listed as “doubtful”), we can go back to the well here in a major up-pace spot (OKC: 3rd in pace). The Thunder will play without Luguentz Dort tonight as well, which is a sizable blow to their perimeter defense.
SG/SF Joe Ingles, MIL | DK: $3.7k, FD: $4.4k | @ IND | GPP Preferred
Pending further injury news, there is not a ton of standout guard value at the moment. One guy that does make some sense is Joe Ingles. He has logged at least 25 minutes in four of his last five games and has averaged 0.81 FPPM in that span. They play different positions, but Bobby Portis’ (knee/out) opens up some extra minutes/usage on the second unit and Khris Middleton’s minutes are still being closely monitored (only played 15 minutes in each of his two games since returning from injury). Ingles makes more sense at $3,700 on DraftKings but he has shown off some 30+ FP upside on three occasions this season (he has only played 16 games) so, all in all, he’s a perfectly fine GPP target at $4,400 on FanDuel as well.
Other Guards to Consider:
PG Ja Morant, MEM | DK: $10k, FD: $10.2k | @ MIN | GPP Preferred
PG Shai Gilgeous Alexander, OKC | DK: $9.9k, FD: $10.5k | @ CLE | GPP Preferred
💫PG/SG Fred VanVleet, TOR | DK: $8k, FD: $8.7k | @ GSW | Cash & GPP
PG D’Angelo Russell, MIN | DK: $6.7k, FD: $7k | vs. MEM | GPP Preferred
💫PG TJ McConnell, IND | DK: $6.5k, FD: $7.4k | vs. MIL | DK Preferred
SG/SF Buddy Hield, IND | DK: $6.1k, FD: $6.8k | vs. MIL | GPP Preferred
💫SG/SF Caris LeVert, CLE | DK: $5.2k, FD: $5.4k | @ OKC | Cash & GPP
SG/SF Chris Duarte, IND | DK: $4.2k, FD: $5.1k | vs. MIL | GPP Preferred (If he starts. Monitor Nembhard/Nesmith news)
SG/SF Dillon Brooks, MEM | DK: $4.6k, FD: $5.4k | @ MIN | GPP Preferred (If D. Bane is out)
SG/SF Isaac Okoro, CLE | DK: $3.7k, FD: $4.8k | @ OKC | DK Preferred
Small Forwards/Power Forwards to Consider 🏀
💫PF/C Draymond Green, GSW | DK: $6.2k, FD: $7.1k | vs. TOR | Cash & GPP
Draymond is no longer the triple-double machine that he used to be years back but, even though he struggles to put up 10 PPG, his peripheral stats have been as good as ever as of late. Over his last five starts, Draymond has brought down 9.4 RPG, dished out 8.0 APG, and has snagged 2.4 STL+BLK/Gm while averaging 1.14 FPPM. He posted a 17/9/5 line against Toronto back on Dec. 18th -- good for 36.25 DKFP. He could dud at any moment but, for now, Draymond sets up as a strong mid-range forward play on a slate where there are not many stand-out options.
💫PF/C Brandon Clarke, MEM | DK: $4.9k, FD: $5.6k | @ MIN | Cash & GPP (If he’s starting)
In place of the injured Steven Adams (knee/out), Clarke slid into the starting rotation in Memphis’ last game against the Warriors on Wednesday. He responded with 19 points, eight rebounds, a pair of assists, and a steal (33.5 DKFP) in 32 minutes. Clarke has averaged a respectable 1.10 FPPM on the season but is typically limited to around 20 minutes off of the bench. Another start would bode well for Clarke, who would likely handle 30+ minutes of action. His role on offense would also benefit should Desmond Bane (knee/questionable) eventually be ruled out. Either way, he’s a strong double-double candidate tonight (again, if he starts) and faces a Timberwolves team that has struggled to defend opposing centers even when Rudy Gobert (groin/questionable) has been in the lineup.
SF/PF Kenrich Williams, OKC | DK: $4.4k, FD: $5k | vs. CLE | Cash & GPP (Assuming he starts)
The Cavs are not often a team I personally look to target. Cleveland plays at the slowest pace in the NBA and ranks 2nd in defensive efficiency. However, a player like Kenrich Williams doesn’t necessarily rely on scoring and he should land back in the starting lineup tonight given the lack of depth the Thunder have available in the frontcourt (Dort, Pokusevski, Robinson-Earl are all out). He logged 30 minutes as a starter on Wednesday and posted nine points, seven rebounds, and seven assists against the Hawks. It’s not a stat line that will mesmerize anyone, but it was good enough to earn 28.25 DKFP. In Williams’ two starts prior, he put up 41.25 DKFP in just 22 minutes (1/18 vs. IND) and 31.25 DKFP in 25 minutes (1/08 vs. DAL). Williams doesn’t put up significant shot volume but he has been draining 41.2% of his three-pointers this season. The Cavs rate out very well defensively but they do allow the 5th highest 3P% in the NBA (37.1%).
Other Forwards to Consider:
💫PF/C Giannis Antetokounmpo, MIL | DK: $11.5k, FD: $11.5k | @ IND | Cash & GPP
SF/PF Scottie Barnes, TOR | DK: $7.7k, FD: $8.2k | @ GSW | GPP Preferred
💫PF/C Evan Mobley, CLE | DK: $6.8k, FD: $7.3k | @ OKC | Cash & GPP
SF/SG Gary Trent Jr., TOR | DK: $6.3k, FD: $6.9k | @ GSW | DK Preferred
💫PF Chris Boucher, TOR | DK: $3.6k, FD: $5.1k | @ GSW | DK Preferred
SF Aaron Wiggins, OKC | DK: $3.1k, FD: $4.1k | @ CLE | GPP Preferred (If he’s starting)
Centers to Consider 🏀
C Pascal Siakam, TOR | DK: $9.5k, FD: $9.6k | @ GSW | GPP Preferred
As usual, DraftKings tends to apply softer salaries to centers compared to FanDuel. But Siakam is one big man where both sites have him similarly priced. Siakam won’t always pay off these $9.5k/$9.6k price tags, but he easily owns the highest ceiling at the position today (not counting Giannis, who is center eligible on DK). The Warriors do get run over by opposing centers on a semi-regular basis. Nic Claxton put up 50.75 DKFP on them on Sunday and Nikola Vucevic recently went off for 76.75 DKFP against them on Jan. 15th. Siakam is posting a career-high 25.2 PPG and 6.5 APG this season and he’s going to push for 40+ minutes in most competitive games, as this game is expected to be tonight (TOR +5). Interestingly, Siakam is also averaging +12.7% more FPPG when playing on the road this season -- 51.5 FPPG in 17 road games. I wouldn’t consider Siakam a “cash safe” play but he brings legit triple-double upside to lineups and he is priced very fairly on this small slate.
💫C Jarrett Allen, CLE | DK: $6k, FD: $7.7k | @ OKC | DK Preferred
Allen simply cannot be ignored on DraftKings where he owns a flat $6,000 price tag. Does he pay off this salary every night? Well, no. But he has put up 35.0 DKFP and 43.0 DKFP in back-to-back games and flirts with 50 DKFP on a routine basis. The banged-up Thunder frontcourt does not possess many guys who present a major challenge for Allen down low. OKC ranks 27th in total rebounding rate, and 22nd in points in the paint allowed per game, and Allen put up a 21-point, 11-rebound double-double when he faced them earlier this season while coming away with 41.25 DKFP. Even on the second leg of a back-to-back, Allen sets up as a prime mid-range target over on DraftKings.
Other Centers to Consider:
💫C Myles Turner, IND | DK: $7.1k, FD: $8k | vs. MIL | Cash & GPP (Note: Turner is currently questionable)
C Rudy Gobert, MIN | DK: $6.4k, FD: $7.9k | vs. MEM | DK Preferred (Note: Gobert is currently questionable)
C Precious Achiuwa, TOR | DK: $4.2k, FD: $5.5k | @ GSW | DK Preferred
💫C Isaiah Jackson, IND | DK: $3.2k, FD: $5k | vs. MIL | Cash & GPP (If M. Turner is out)
NBA Player Props 📊
Player Prop or Bet | Odds | Unit Bet Size
Jarrett Allen to Record a Double-Double & Cavs to Win: Yes | +185 (PointsBet) | 1.5 Units
Pascal Siakam OVER 5.5 Assists | -125 (PointsBet) | 2.5 Units
PrizePicks Power Play ⚡
Here is a two-pick “Power Play” I’m liking for today's NBA action over on PrizePicks! Nothing is ever a guarantee to hit but I put my own money on these bets so I don't just lightly throw these out there without believing they'll cash! If it hits, it will return 3x the wager.
Evan Mobley MORE than 2.5 Assists
Klay Thompson MORE than 0.5 Free Throws Made
🆕 Props Edge+ 🆕
In LineStar’s ongoing mission to improve, innovate, and help you reel in some cash, we are introducing Props Edge+ for NBA – available for LineStar Premium users! This tool can help you find value and mispriced odds on player props from sportsbooks and, more specifically, for PrizePicks and UnderDog Fantasy!
Speaking of props, put the Props Edge+ tool to use by signing up for PrizePicks (Promo code: BETFULLY) or Underdog (Promo code: LINESTAR). You'll receive a 100% match on first deposits up to $100 PLUS a free two-month subscription to LineStar Premium. Many people may not realize that you can legally place prop bets in most states using UnderDog (or PrizePicks) – it’s called Pick'Em, and it’s incredibly easy.
That will wrap us up with today’s “Daily Dribble” edition! Once again, you can find me on Twitter or in LineStar chat @Ryan_Humphries. Good luck everyone!