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Top NBA DFS Plays & Prop Bets 12/7 | There is Value Galore with All of the Injuries Tonight đźš‘
Time for some NBA Wednesday madness with a loaded 11-game slate on tap! Let’s get locked in on some of the best DFS plays and props to keep in mind for tonight’s games!
Written By: Ryan Humphries on Twitter & LineStar chat @Ryan_Humphries
DFS Main Slate Rundown đź“°
Happy Hump Day! We’ve got a busy night ahead of us with 11 games on the menu and a ton of injury impacts. Let’s waste no time and dive right into this thing! Best of luck tonight!
Today’s Key Injuries:
Clippers: J. Wall - OUT, M. Morris Sr. - OUT, N. Powell - OUT, L. Kennard - OUT
Magic: W. Carter Jr. - OUT, J. Suggs - OUT, C. Okeke - OUT, G. Harris - OUT
Lakers: A. Davis - OUT, L. James - OUT, P. Beverly - Doubtful, W. Gabriel - OUT
Raptors: P. Achiuwa - OUT, O. Porter Jr. - OUT, J. Hernangomez - OUT
Hawks: J. Collins - OUT, D. Hunter - OUT
Hornets: L. Ball - OUT, G. Hayward - OUT, D. Smith Jr. - OUT
Nets: B. Simmons - OUT, Y. Watanabe - OUT, E. Sumner - Questionable
Wizards: B. Beal - OUT, D. Wright - OUT, R. Hachimura - OUT
Bulls: A. Caruso - Questionable, J. Green - Doubtful
Thunder: L. Dort - OUT, K. Williams - OUT
Grizzlies: D. Bane - OUT, J. LaRavia - Doubtful, Z. Williams - Questionable (would be season debut)
Pistons: C. Cunningham - OUT, I. Livers - OUT
Pelicans: B. Ingram - OUT, H. Jones - Doubtful, D. Graham - Questionable
Kings: T. Davis - Questionable
Bucks: S. Ibaka - Probable, M. Beauchamp - Probable, W. Matthews - OUT
Pacers: T. Haliburton - Questionable, M. Turner - Questionable, J. Smith - Questionable, C. Duarte - OUT, TJ McConnell - Questionable
T-Wolves: K. Towns - OUT, T. Prince - OUT
Warriors: S. Curry - OUT, A. Wiggins - OUT, D. Green - OUT
Jazz: M. Conley - Questionable
Celtics: A. Horford - OUT
Suns: C. Paul - Questionable (intends to play), C. Johnson - OUT
Main Slate Match-Ups w/ Game Totals & Point Spreads
Note: NBA position designations are never going to perfectly align between the major DFS sites. For the purposes of these newsletters, positional designations will default to DraftKings.
đź’« = Favorite Play
Point Guards/Shooting Guards to Consider 🏀
PG D’Angelo Russell, MIN | DK: $7k, FD: $7.1k | vs. IND | Cash & GPP
In a hypothetical world where there were minimal injury impacts on this slate, this game would be heavily targeted by the masses tonight. The Timberwolves and Pacers are the two fastest-paced teams in the NBA which explains this massive 237-point total and Minnesota’s slate-leading 121.0 implied point total. So, while we’ll definitely target players who will benefit from all of these injuries today, let’s keep impact players from this game in mind as well. Karl-Anthony Towns (calf/out) has been sidelined for the last two games which has helped lead to a couple of 40+ FP performances out of Russell. He also played at least 36 minutes in both of those games and averaged 1.13 FPPM. He’ll project for similar minutes tonight which opens up a wide pathway to 6x value (or better).
đź’«PG/SG Jordan Poole, GSW | DK: $6.5k, FD: $5.9k | @ UTA | Cash & GPP
The Warriors have ruled out Steph Curry, Andrew Wiggins, and Draymond Green so it’ll be another Jordan Poole chalk night. It’s hard to pass up the potential value that Poole offers with those guys off the court, especially in cash games where he’s a near lock. When Curry, Wiggins, and Green have been off the court this season, Poole has garnered a team-high +6.62% usage increase. This is also a strong match-up against a fairly uptempo Jazz team (11th in pace) that ranks 25th in defensive efficiency. I don’t hate pivoting off of Poole in GPPs, because he is going to carry insane ownership, but don’t overthink it for your cash lineup.
đź’«PG Russell Westbrook, LAL | DK: $6.5k, FD: $6.9k | @ TOR | Cash & GPP
Perhaps if it were not for the obvious Jordan Poole value, Russell Westbrook might be the mid-range chalk guard play of the day. However, I do imagine that the match-up against the Raptors (24th in pace, 9th in defensive efficiency) will scare folks off of Westbrook. But the Lakers have some major absences of their own today, with LeBron and AD ruled out and Pat Bev looking doubtful. LeBron and AD being out opens up massive usage for Westbrook, and Beverly being out would open up some extra minutes for Westy. Westbrook has seen a team-high +7.55% usage increase when those guys have been off the court this season. While he may not be pushing for triple-doubles anymore at this stage of his career, it’s hard to keep Westbrook out of the player pool when he’s priced in the $6k range on both sites.
Other Guards to Consider:
PG Ja Morant, MEM | DK: $10.6k, FD: $9.6k | vs. OKC | FD Preferred
đź’«SG/SF Anthony Edwards, MIN | DK: $8.8k, FD: $8.4k | vs. IND | Cash & GPP
PG/SG CJ McCollum, NOP | DK: $7.3k, FD: $7.2k | vs. DET | GPP Preferred
đź’«SG Klay Thompson, GSW | DK: $6.3k, FD: $6.2k | @ UTA | Cash & GPP
PG/SG Marcus Smart, BOS | DK: $6.2k, FD: $6.4k | @ PHX | GPP Preferred
SG/SF Lonnie Walker IV, LAL | DK: $4.6k, FD: $5.2k | @ TOR | GPP Preferred
PG/SG Jaylen Nowell, MIN | DK: $4.5k, FD: $5.5k | vs. IND | DK Preferred
đź’«PG Dennis Schroder, LAL | DK: $4.1k, FD: $4.8k | @ TOR | DK Preferred
PG/SG Donte DiVincenzo, GSW | DK: $3.7k, FD: $4.1k | @ UTA | GPP Preferred
Small Forwards/Power Forwards to Consider 🏀
đź’«PF/C Giannis Antetokounmpo, MIL | DK: $12.4k, FD: $11.7k | vs. SAC | Cash & GPP
Ever since Giannis’ DFS prices caught up to his actual production, he hasn’t been highlighted as often in these newsletters. However, with all of the value out there today, it will be as easy as ever to spend up on him and lock in the awesome DFS floor that he provides. This is also an awesome match-up against a Kings team that can both push the overall game tempo (SAC: 6th in pace) and is talented enough to go toe-to-toe with a great team like the Bucks. Giannis is averaging 1.82 FPPM over his last five games. No other player on the slate even comes close to that type of per-minute production and this game boasts a huge 235.5 O/U.
đź’«PF Kyle Kuzma, WAS | DK: $8.1k, FD: $7.5k | @ CHI | Cash & GPP
I could imagine the Bradley Beal (hamstring/out) injury, and the impact of that injury, flying a bit under the radar today. Maybe it does, maybe it doesn’t, but either way that is going to put Kyle Kuzma squarely on the radar today. With Beal off the court, Kuzma has owned a team-leading +3.83% usage boost. That could push him over a 30% USG% which, at that point, is flirting with someone like Kevin Durant’s usage rate. This is a considerable pace-up spot for Washington against Chicago (9th in pace). The Wizards also come in on three days rest -- Kuzma is averaging +34% more FPPG when well-rested (47.75 FPPG). I love the floor + ceiling combo he provides lineups with tonight.
đź’«PF/C Jonathan Kuminga, GSW | DK: $3.4k, FD: $4k | @ UTA | Cash & GPP
Taking into account the three big Golden State injuries tonight, Kuminga looks nearly unfadeable at $3.4k/$4k given his potential for 30+ minutes. Kuminga should be expected to slide into the starting rotation this evening and he has averaged 0.90 FPPM in his last five games as a starter. Essentially every game where he has played 25+ minutes, Kuminga has crushed value at these prices so he’ll make for an obvious value play on this slate.
Other Forwards to Consider:
PF/C Pascal Siakam, TOR | DK: $9.8k, FD: $9.8k | vs. LAL | Cash & GPP
SF/SG Jaylen Brown, BOS | DK: $8.7k, FD: $8.5k | @ PHX | GPP Preferred
SG/SF Kelly Oubre Jr., CHA | DK: $6.8k, FD: $7.1k | @ BKN | GPP Preferred
SF/PF Kyle Anderson, MIN | DK: $4.7k, FD: $5.1k | vs. IND | GPP Preferred
đź’«PF Jalen Johnson, ATL | DK: $4.1k, FD: $4.6k | @ NYK | Cash & GPP
đź’«PF/SF Anthony Lamb, GSW | DK: $3.3k, FD: $3.8k | @ UTA | Cash & GPP
Centers to Consider 🏀
đź’«C Nicolas Claxton, BKN | DK: $6.2k, FD: $6.6k | vs. CHA | Cash & GPP
Centers against Charlotte; it’s not going to work out 100% of the time (what does?) but it does work out most of the time. Let’s look at some DKFP totals from centers who went up against the Hornets recently: B. Lopez, MIL - 38.0 DKFP, K. Porzingis, WAS - 42.75 DKFP, R. Gobert, MIN - 48.25 DKFP, J. Allen, CLE - 46.5 DKFP, M. Turner, IND - 46.0 DKFP. There is no weird “Ben Simmons playing center” factor to worry about since he’s out again tonight and Claxton has cleared 33.5 DKFP in five of his last seven games. Pending any unforeseen injury or foul trouble, Claxton is a rock-solid mid-range play at center today.
đź’«C Thomas Bryant, LAL | DK: $3.1k, FD: $4.3k | @ TOR | Cash & GPP
We absolutely cannot ignore Thomas Bryant for value on this slate, especially on DraftKings at $100 above the stone minimum. Since both Anthony Davis and Wenyen Gabriel are out tonight, the Lakers’ only options at the five are Bryant and Damian Jones… who is just not good. When Davis exited last night’s game with flu-like symptoms after playing eight minutes, Bryant came in as the primary center and ended up playing 28 minutes and scored 19 points, and brought down nine rebounds. Bryant has averaged 1.21 FPPM this season so Thomas should be expected to absolutely smash value tonight, even in a difficult match-up against Pascal Siakam and the Raptors.
Other Centers to Consider:
C Kristaps Porzingis, WAS | DK: $9.2k, FD: $8,9k | @ CHI | Cash & GPP
PF/C Bobby Portis, MIL | DK: $6.9k, FD: $6k | vs. SAC | FD Preferred
C Steven Adams, MEM | DK: $5.5k, FD: $6k | vs. OKC | GPP Preferred
PF/C Jarred Vanderbilt, UTA | DK: $5.1k, FD: $5.2k | vs. GSW | GPP Preferred
đź’«C Mitchell Robinson, NYK | DK: $4.9k, FD: $5.8k | vs. ATL | DK Preferred
NBA Player Props đź“Š
Player Prop or Bet | Odds | Unit Bet Size
Kyle Kuzma OVER 27.5 Points + Assists | -104 (FanDuel) | 2.0 Units
Kuzma has cleared the over on this prop in six of his last seven games and he came very close to hitting the over on eight of his last nine. Now he’ll get a notable usage boost and a slight assist rate boost with Bradley Beal unavailable tonight. I considered going with the over on Kuzma’s points (23.5) but he is averaging 4.7 APG over his last 10, including a couple of nine-assist games, so let’s ride with the points/assist prop for some (hopeful) extra security.
Nicolas Claxton OVER 2.5 Blocks + Steals | -125 (DraftKings) | 2.0 Units
Charlotte is arguably the best team to target when it comes to opposing players’ blocks (+ steals) props. The Hornets allow a league-high 7.1 blocks per game and are middle-of-the-pack in steals allowed (6.8 per game). Claxton is also just a solid shot blocker (2.2 BPG) and has been racking up some steals recently as well with six steals in his last nine games. Claxton has hit the over on this prop in seven of his last eight games so it’s a great spot to slam the over on this bet tonight.
PrizePicks Power Play ⚡
Here is a two-pick “Power Play” I’m liking for today's NBA action over on PrizePicks! Nothing is ever a guarantee to hit but I put my own money on these bets so I don't just lightly throw these out there without believing they'll cash! If it hits, it will return 3x the wager.
Kyle Kuzma MORE than 27.5 PTS + ASTS
Nicolas Claxton MORE than 2.5 BLKS + STLS
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That will wrap us up with today’s “Daily Dribble” edition! Once again, you can find me on Twitter or in LineStar chat @Ryan_Humphries. Good luck everyone!