Written By: Ryan Humphries on Twitter & LineStar chat @Ryan_Humphries

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NBA DFS & Props Shows w/ Shannon & Tyler!

DFS Main Slate Rundown 📰

Buckle up for another doozy of an NBA slate! With 26 teams in play, it’s safe to assume that there will be a slew of injury impacts, which will certainly be true today. Fortunately, the vast majority of key injury statuses will feature players that have already been ruled out, as of this afternoon. There are still a few “questionable” tags we’ll need to monitor but, for the most part, we know which key players are either out or in this evening. Let’s get down to business and best of luck!

Today’s Key Injuries

• Raptors: None

• Hornets: L. Ball - OUT, N. Smith Jr. - Doubtful

• Pistons: J. Duren - OUT

• Magic: J. Suggs - OUT, W. Carter Jr. - OUT, M. Fultz - OUT, J. Isaac - OUT

• Hawks: T. Young - OUT, J. Johnson - OUT

• 76ers: None

• Wizards: D. Gafford - Questionable, D. Wright - OUT, L. Shamet - OUT, J. Davis - OUT

• Nets: B. Simmons - OUT, L. Walker IV - OUT

• Knicks: None

• Celtics: None

• Cavaliers: E. Mobley - OUT, C. LeVert - OUT

• Heat: B. Adebayo - OUT, T. Herro - OUT, D. Robinson - Probable, H. Highsmith - OUT

• Timberwolves: J. McDaniels - OUT

• Grizzlies: M. Smart - OUT, L. Kennard - OUT, J. LaRavia - Doubtful

• Warriors: C. Paul - Questionable, G. Payton II - OUT

• Thunder: None

• Bulls: Z. LaVine - OUT, A. Caruso - Probable, T. Craig - Probable

• Spurs: None

• Rockets: A. Thompson - OUT, J. Landale - OUT

• Nuggets: J. Murray - Probable

• Kings: C. Duarte - Questionable, A. Len - OUT, C. Jones - OUT

• Suns: K. Durant - OUT, B. Beal - OUT, G. Allen - OUT

• Clippers: M. Plumlee - OUT

• Jazz: L. Markkanen - OUT, J. Clarkson - Probable, K. Olynyk - Probable

• Mavericks: G. Williams - OUT, J. Green - OUT, M. Kleber - OUT

• Trailblazers: M. Brogdon - Questionable, J. Grant - OUT, D. Ayton - Doubtful

Main Slate Match-Ups w/ Game Totals & Point Spreads

Top DraftKings & FanDuel DFS Plays

Note: NBA position designations are never going to perfectly align between the major DFS sites. For the purposes of these newsletters, positional designations will default to DraftKings.

Point Guards/Shooting Guards to Consider 🏀

PG/SG Devin Booker, PHX | DK: $10.1k, FD: $10.8k | vs. SAC

If you’re in tune with the long list of key injuries today, you’re likely unsurprised by this first player spotlight. Kevin Durant (ankle/out) will miss tonight’s game along with Grayson Allen (illness/out). Bradley Beal (back/out) seems to be nearing his return but will be missing his 12th consecutive game. That places an even heavier workload on D-Book tonight. I was somewhat surprised to see that Booker’s usage essentially hasn’t increased (+0.03%) in 142 minutes with those three players off the floor this season. Nonetheless, he’s going to have to take over this game and Vegas is giving the Suns a strong chance to win tonight, despite the injuries, as Phoenix is just a +2.5 point home underdog. Booker has been at his best at home where he is averaging +10.6% more FPPG, despite playing exactly three fewer minutes per game across five home contests. We know Booker has some realistic 70+ FP upside in the tank and, at the very least, he’s not going to burn you tonight pending injury or a very early blowout.

PG/SG Dejounte Murray, ATL | DK: $8k, FD: $7.9k | @ PHI

Despite a less-than-ideal match-up, this is going to be another fairly obvious recommendation. Trae Young (illness/out) will be missing just his second game of the season, so Dejounte Murray will be handed the keys to the offense. The only other game that Young missed this season came on November 14th (@ DET) following the birth of his daughter. In that game, Dejounte Murray popped off for 32 points, 10 assists, five rebounds, and three steals -- good for 60.25 DKFP/60 FDFP. The 76ers rank mid-pack in pace and defensive rating this season so they’re not as much of the tough, slow-paced opponent that they’ve been in previous seasons. However, the Hawks will step into this game as +9 road underdogs, so some blowout concerns will exist. But if Atlanta keeps this game close, or wins, it’ll be thanks to a big performance out of Murray.

PG/SG Anfernee Simons, POR | DK: $6.8k, FD: $6.6k | vs. DAL

Simons played in his first game since Opening Night on Wednesday and faced zero limitations. He logged 37 minutes and chucked up 27 shot attempts. I suppose it helps that it was a thumb injury (and not a lower body or some other more debilitating type of injury) that had been keeping him on the sidelines so he’s been able to stay in game shape during his absence. With Jerami Grant (concussion) out again, Deandre Ayton (knee) doubtful, and Malcolm Brogdon (knee) questionable, there is not much standing in the way of Simons putting up another 25+ shots again tonight. This will also be his first home game of the season, which doesn’t hurt his potential, and the Mavs have been a strong match-up to target. Dallas ranks 23rd in DEFRTG and has played at the 8th-fastest pace this season. They will have their star duo of Luka Doncic and Kyrie Irving available, but they are down a few rotational role players. Portland will be hefty +8.5 underdogs, but Simons brings ample upside to DFS lineups at a sub-$7k price tag.

Other Guards to Consider

PG Luka Doncic, DAL | DK: $11.8k, FD: $12.4k | @ POR

PG Tyrese Maxey, PHI | DK: $9.3k, FD: $9k | vs. ATL

PG/SG Donovan Mitchell, CLE | DK: $9k, FD: $9.9k | @ MIA (DK Preferred - Boost if E. Mobley sits)

PG/SG Terry Rozier, CHA | DK: $8.4k, FD: $8.3k | vs. TOR

PG/SG Jamed Harden, LAC | DK: $7.9k, FD: $8k | @ UTA

PG/SG Cam Thomas, BKN | DK: $7.3k, FD: $6.5k | vs. WAS

PG Coby White, CHI | DK: $7.1k, FD: $7.4k | @ SAS

PG/SG Cole Anthony, ORL | DK: $6.8k, FD: $7.1k | vs. DET

PG/SG Eric Gordon, PHX | DK: $6.3k, FD: $5.5k | vs. SAC

SG/SF Alex Caruso, CHI | DK: $5.1k, FD: $5.6k | @ SAS

PG/SF Dante Exum, DAL | DK: $4.5k, FD: $4.3k | @ POR (Assuming he starts again)

PG/SG Gary Trent Jr., TOR | DK: $4.1k, FD: $4.5k | @ CHA

PG/SG Seth Curry, DAL | DK: $4.1k, FD: $4.3k | @ POR

Small Forwards/Power Forwards to Consider 🏀

PF/C Victor Wembanyama, SAS | DK: $8.8k, FD: $9k | vs. CHI

It’s another big slate where there are no truly obvious high-end forwards to spend up on, so I’m alright with rolling the dice on a low-owned Wemby in hopes of a big blocks/steals-heavy performance. The recent down game from Wemby on the road against the Timberwolves was always going to be a risk -- Minnesota has been the best defensive team in the NBA and doesn’t play at a particularly fast pace (19th). Chicago may also not be the best match-up. They rank dead last in pace but they do own a subpar 20th ranking in defensive rating. It is a positive that the Spurs are back at home. In 10 home games, Wembanyama is averaging 46.0 DKFP, which is a +20.4% increase from his FPPG average on the road. We’ll need those blocks and steals out of Wemby for him to unlock his DFS ceiling, but he is averaging 5.0 STL+BLK/gm over his last five. He should have plenty of opportunities to protect the rim against two high-usage Bulls players, DeMar DeRozan and Nikola Vucevic, who take the vast majority of their shots from two-point range and in/around the paint. The Spurs are still chasing their first win in over a month, but they will be just +2 home underdogs in this one.

PF Paolo Banchero, ORL | DK: $8.3k, FD: $8.1k | vs. DET

The Magic are quite shorthanded today with Jalen Suggs, Wendell Carter Jr., Markelle Fultz, and Jonathan Isaac all ruled out for this game. Banchero has seen a solid +4.02% usage increase in 168 minutes with those players off the court this season. He’s also been on a nice little run recently. He has exceeded salary-based expectations over his last three games, putting up 54.0 DKFP/53.7 FDFP (@ CLE), 46.5 DKFP/45.0 FDFP (@ BKN), and 56.75 DKFP/52.1 FDFP (vs. WAS). He’ll now get a prime match-up with a Pistons team that checks in at 6th in pace, 24th in DEFRTG, and will be without rim protector Jalen Duren (ankle/out). Banchero has also been more effective at home this season where he’s shooting 50.9% from the field, including a red-hot 48.6% from three-point range (vs. 47.3% FG%/34.5% 3P% in away games). He’ll be a great target out of the low-$8k range today.

SF/PF Keita Bates-Diop, PHX | DK: $4.5k, FD: $4k | vs. SAC

If we want to afford some studs, we’re going to need to land on some value somewhere and Keita Bates-Diop should find himself in the starting lineup tonight. He has only averaged 0.77 FPPM this season but if he plays around 30 minutes, that will be enough time for him to push for roughly 6x value, especially on FanDuel where he is a flat $4,000. The Kings have also ranked 26th against opposing starting power forwards over their last four games. Bates-Diop may only put up a handful of shots but he has been very capable when it comes to snagging steals and blocks, and he can also crash the boards while picking up a few assists as well.

Other Forwards to Consider

SF/PG Scottie Barnes, TOR | DK: $8.8k, FD: $8.9k | @ CHA

SF/PF Mikal Bridges, BKN | DK: $8.7k, FD: $8.5k | vs. WAS

SF/PF DeMar DeRozan, CHI | DK: $8.4k, FD: $8.1k | @ SAS

PF/C Pascal Siakam, TOR | DK: $8.1k, FD: $8.4k | @ CHA

PF Kawhi Leonard, LAC | DK: $8k, FD: $8.6k | @ UTA (DK Preferred)

SF/SG Bogdan Bogdanovic, ATL | DK: $6.4k, FD: $6.1k | @ PHI

SF/PF Jalen Williams, OKC | DK: $6.2k, FD: $6.8k | vs. GSW (DK Preferred)

SF/SG Caleb Martin, MIA | DK: $5.9k, FD: $5.8k | vs. CLE (If he starts again)

PF Saddiq Bey, ATL | DK: $5.7k, FD: $5.8k | @ PHI

SF/PF Patrick Williams, CHI | DK: $5.2k, FD: $5.5k | @ SAS

PF Jabari Walker, POR | DK: $5.2k, FD: $4.8k | vs. DAL

SF/PF Cedi Osman, SAS | DK: $4.7k, FD: $4.2k | vs CHI (If he starts again)

PF Nicolas Batum, PHI | DK: $4.3k, FD: $4.7k | vs. ATL

SF/PF Georges Niang, CLE | DK: $4k, FD: $4.5k | @ MIA (Preferred if E. Mobley sits)

Centers to Consider 🏀

C Joel Embiid, PHI | DK: $11.7k, FD: $12.5k | vs. ATL

You can rarely go wrong with either of “the big two” centers (Embiid/Jokic) and today looks like a prime spot for another huge Embiid game. The 76ers rank second on the slate with a 122.3 implied team total. When Philly has scored 119+ points this season, Embiid has scored fewer than 64.0 DKFP just once out of 10 games. Coincidentally, that one game was against the Hawks on November 17th, but I’d hardly call a 32-point, 8-assist, 7-rebound, two-steal performance “bad.” The fast pace of the Hawks (3rd in pace) should help Embiid stuff the stat sheet once again.

C Orlando Robinson, MIA | DK: $5.4k, FD: $5.5k | vs. CLE

In the four games that Robinson has played at least 26 minutes in this season, he has posted fantasy scores of 31.25 DKFP/29.9 FDFP (@ MIL), 33.75 DKFP/34.8 FDFP (@ CLE), 27.25 DKFP/25.5 FDFP (vs. IND), and 46.0 DKFP/46.4 FDFP (@ TOR). Barring a major surprise, he’ll get the starting nod again tonight due to Bam Adebayo’s (hip/out) continued absence. It’s perhaps not the easiest match-up against the Cavs, but Robinson has already shown he can have a strong game against them this season when given the minutes. Evan Mobley (knee/questionable) also wasn’t at the morning shootaround today so, if he sits, it becomes a softer match-up for Robinson.

Other Centers to Consider

C Nikola Jokic, DEN | DK: $12k, FD: $12.6k | vs. HOU

C Alperen Sengun, HOU | DK: $9.1k, FD: $8.9k | @ DEN

C Chet Holmgren, OKC | DK: $7.7k, FD: $8.3k | vs. GSW

C Jusuf Nurkic, PHX | DK: $7.2k, FD: $7.5k | vs. SAC

C Nic Claxton, BKN | DK: $6.6k, FD: $7.7k | vs. WAS (DK Preferred)

C Clint Capela, ATL | DK: $6k, FD: $6.4k | @ PHI

C Duop Reath, POR | DK: $4k, FD: $4.4k | vs. DAL

PrizePicks NBA Power Play ⚡

Here is a two-pick “Power Play” I’m liking for today's NBA action over on PrizePicks! Nothing is ever a guarantee to hit but I put my own money on these bets so I don't just lightly throw these out there without believing they'll cash! If it hits, it will return 3x the wager.

No PrizePicks plays today but Shannon & Tyler have ya covered with some recommended plays in the props video posted at the top of this newsletter!

🔥 Props AI 🔥

In LineStar’s ongoing mission to improve, innovate, and help you reel in some cash, we are introducing Props AI for NBA – available for LineStar Premium users! This tool can help you find value and mispriced odds on player props from sportsbooks and, more specifically, for PrizePicks and UnderDog Fantasy!

Speaking of props, put the Props AI tool to use by signing up for PrizePicks (Promo code: BETFULLY) or Underdog (Promo code: LINESTAR). You'll receive a 100% match on first deposits up to $100 PLUS a free two-month subscription to LineStar Premium. Many people may not realize that you can legally place prop bets in most states using UnderDog (or PrizePicks) – it’s called Pick'Em, and it’s incredibly easy.

That will wrap us up with today’s “Daily Dribble” edition! Once again, you can find me on Twitter or in LineStar chat @Ryan_Humphries. Good luck everyone!