We’re back on the small slate grind with a three-game NBA schedule on this Thursday! Let’s hone in on some go-to DFS plays and props!

Written By: Ryan Humphries on Twitter & LineStar chat @Ryan_Humphries

DFS Main Slate Rundown 📰

It’s not the flashiest small slate that there ever was, but we’ll have three games on tap for tonight. Based on the point spreads and the healthy bodies available for each team, all three games should be competitive and provide us with some decent avenues to success. Let’s hop to it!

Today’s Key Injuries:

Clippers: K. Leonard - OUT, T. Mann - OUT, N. Powell - OUT

Heat: J. Butler - Questionable, T. Herro - Probable, K. Lowry - OUT, M. Strus - Probable, V. Oladipo - Probable, D. Robinson - Probable, D. Dedmon - Questionable, G. Vincent - OUT

Rockets: K. Porter Jr. - Questionable, J. Tate - OUT, B. Fernando - Questionable

Spurs: D. Vassell - Doubtful, J. Poeltl - OUT, K. Bates-Diop - OUT, J. Sochan - OUT, J. Richardson - Probable, D. McDermott - Probable, R. Langford - Probable

Nuggets: M. Porter Jr. - OUT, K. Caldwell-Pope - Probable

Trailblazers: J. Hart - Probable, D. Eubanks - Probable, N. Little - OUT, K. Johnson - Probable

Main Slate Match-Ups w/ Game Totals & Point Spreads

Note: NBA position designations are never going to perfectly align between the major DFS sites. For the purposes of these newsletters, positional designations will default to DraftKings.

💫 = Favorite Play

Point Guards/Shooting Guards to Consider 🏀

💫PG/SG Tyler Herro, MIA | DK: $7.7k, FD: $8.4k | vs. LAC | Cash & GPP

Herro’s DFS prices keep climbing, but he also keeps giving us reasons to roster him. He has bumped his production up to 1.20 FPPM over his last five games, and in that stretch, he has held a floor of 43.25 DKFP while playing at least 37 minutes each game. You do have to wonder if fatigue will ever be a factor, but, hey, it’s still fairly early in the season, and Herro was unaffected in his last game, which was the back end of a B2B where he had played 40 minutes the night prior. We’ll continue to keep Herro in play given his shot-making ability and strong peripheral stats that he is pouring in. Herro has also seen a stout +6.09% usage boost when Kyle Lowry (rest/out) has been off the floor the season.

💫PG Tre Jones, SAS | DK: $6.4k, FD: $6.4k | vs. HOU | Cash & GPP

Maybe not the most exciting play, but Tre Jones should be a reliable mid-range guard play on this small slate. He draws a great match-up against the Rockets, who rank dead last in defensive efficiency and 20th versus the point guard position. Jones should also be more involved as a shooter given the absences of Jakob Poeltl, Jeremy Sochan, and the likely absence of Devin Vassell (knee/doubtful) tonight. When those three players have been off the floor this season, Jones has seen a significant +11.37% usage increase and a +22.11 boost to his per 48-minute fantasy point average.

💫SG/SF Romeo Langford, SAS | DK: $3.1k, FD: $4k | vs. HOU | Cash & GPP

Langford is a candidate to slide into the starting rotation tonight due to the injuries that the Spurs are dealing with. Langford has bumped his per-minute production up to a respectable 0.80 FPPM in the last five games, and assuming he handles 25-30 minutes on the court, it won’t be too difficult to pay off his modest salaries.

Other Guards to Consider:

PG Damian Lillard, POR | DK: $9.7k, FD: $9.5k | vs. DEN | Cash & GPP

PG/SG Jalen Green, HOU | DK: $6.9k, FD: $6.7k | @ SAS | GPP Preferred

💫PG/SG Bones Hyland, DEN | DK: $5.6k, FD: $5k | GPP Preferred

SG Luke Kennard, LAC | DK: $4k, FD: $3.5k | @ MIA | GPP Preferred

SF Malaki Branham, SAS | DK: $3.2k, FD: $3.5k | vs. HOU | GPP Preferred

Small Forwards/Power Forwards to Consider 🏀

💫SF Keldon Johnson, SAS | DK: $7.6k, FD: $7.5k | vs. HOU | Cash & GPP

Keldon Johnson is going to be hard to ignore on this small slate given the amount of Spurs injuries and the kind of usage those ailments will open up. Johnson has seen a team-high +11.92% usage boost when Vassell, Poeltl, and Sochan have been off the court along with a +13.07 per-48 minute fantasy point increase. The Rockets are surrendering 35.4 FPPG to starting SF this season and we can likely expect Keldon Johnson to exceed that fantasy output tonight.

💫SF/PF Jerami Grant, POR | DK: $7.4k, FD: $8.2k | vs. DEN | Cash & GPP

Grant has displayed some excellent consistency over the last couple of weeks, so we can feel great about slotting him into lineups as a high-floor forward option. It appears that Damian Lillard’s return in the previous game didn’t affect his offensive role whatsoever as he still put up 21 shots and poured in 28 points. Grant has averaged a sturdy 1.19 FPPM over his last five games. The Trailblazers also come in with plenty of rest after not playing since this past Sunday. When Grant has come into games well-rested, he is averaging an additional +24% more fantasy points.

PF/C Robert Covington, LAC | DK: $3.7k, FD: $4.6k | @ MIA | GPP Preferred

The FanDuel price makes RoCo a bit of a tough sell but for $3,700 on DraftKings, he sets up as a perfectly fine value option. Covington has dropped at least 21.5 DKFP in his last five games played; if he maintains that floor, that is nearly a 6x return on the $3.7k price tag. His minutes should be fairly secure in the 20-25 range given some of the injuries that the Clippers are dealing with.

Other Forwards to Consider:

💫PF Aaron Gordon, DEN | DK: $6.3k, FD: $6.9k | @ POR | Cash & GPP

PF/C Jabari Smith Jr., HOU | DK: $5k, FD: $5.8k | @ SAS | DK Preferred

SF Caleb Martin, MIA | DK: $5k, FD: $4.6k | vs. LAC | GPP Preferred (If Butler is out)

SF Eric Gordon, HOU | DK: $3.9k, FD: $4.4k | @ SAS | GPP Preferred

PF Isaiah Roby, SAS | DK: $3.3k, FD: $4.6k | vs. HOU | DK Preferred

Centers to Consider 🏀

💫C Nikola Jokic, DEN | DK: $11.3k, FD: $11.5k | @ POR | Cash & GPP

Jokic is far and away the top-priced player on the board tonight. Even though he has gone without the same sort of massive usage that he had in his back-to-back MVP seasons, I’d still expect him to be a priority among DFS players this evening. It goes without saying, but no other player has the same sort of ceiling that Jokic possesses and you’re typically getting a 50 FP floor nearly every time that he takes the court. If you can work in a couple of value pieces, Jokic is a perfectly fine spend-up option even if he doesn’t return the sort of 6x value that we look for in GPPs.

C Charles Bassey, SAS | DK: $3.6k, FD: $4.7k | vs. HOU | GPP Preferred

There are little-to-no viable cheap center plays on this slate but perhaps Bassey could be one player to consider. He should see decent minutes off of the bench due to the Jakob Poeltl injury and, when he is on the court, he is highly productive. In nine home games this season, Bassey has averaged an excellent 1.34 FPPM so if he can secure about 20 minutes tonight, he could certainly crush value… especially at $3,600 on DraftKings.

Other Centers to Consider:

💫C Bam Adebayo, MIA | DK: $8.4k, FD: $9k | vs. LAC | Cash & GPP

C Alperen Sengun, HOU | DK: $5.8k, FD: $6.5k | @ SAS | Cash & GPP

NBA Player Props 📊

Player Prop or Bet | Odds | Unit Bet Size

Small slate so let's just put one prop on the board today!

Tyler Herro OVER 21.5 Points | +100 (FanDuel) | 2.0 Units

Herro has been rolling on offense and he has hit the over on this prop in four consecutive games. It was mentioned above in his DFS spotlight, but when Kyle Lowry (rest/out) has been off of the court this season, Herro has handled a +6.09% usage boost. The match-up and pace of this game aren’t great but the Heat own a decent enough 109.3 implied point total and Herro should be either the first or second scoring option for Miami, depending on whether or not Jimmy Butler can suit up.

PrizePicks Power Play ⚡

Here is a two-pick “Power Play” I’m liking for today's NBA action over on PrizePicks! Nothing is ever a guarantee to hit but I put my own money on these bets so I don't just lightly throw these out there without believing they'll cash! If it hits, it will return 3x the wager.

Tyler Herro MORE than 20.5 Points

Jusuf Nurkic MORE than 16.5 PTS+ASTS

🆕 Props Edge+ 🆕

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Speaking of props, put the Props Edge+ tool to use by signing up for PrizePicks (Promo code: BETFULLY) or Underdog (Promo code: LINESTAR). You'll receive a 100% match on first deposits up to $100 PLUS a free two-month subscription to LineStar Premium. Many people may not realize that you can legally place prop bets in most states using UnderDog (or PrizePicks) – it’s called Pick'Em, and it’s incredibly easy.

That will wrap us up with today’s “Daily Dribble” edition! Once again, you can find me on Twitter or in LineStar chat @Ryan_Humphries. Good luck everyone!