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- Top NBA DFS Plays & Prop Bets 1/4 | Massive Slate = Major Injury Impacts!
Top NBA DFS Plays & Prop Bets 1/4 | Massive Slate = Major Injury Impacts!
There’s no shortage of action tonight with TWELVE games on the Wednesday schedule! Let’s hop into some DFS plays and props to consider for this massive slate!
Written By: Ryan Humphries on Twitter & LineStar chat @Ryan_Humphries
Straight Locks🔒 | NBA Props w/ Shannon & Tyler!
DFS Main Slate Rundown 📰
Eighty percent of the league is hitting the hardwood tonight. 24 teams, 12 games… it’s a doozy. Let’s get right into the injury report, some DFS plays to consider, and some recommended prop plays! Best of luck today!
Today’s Key Injuries:
Grizzlies: B. Clarke - OUT, T. Jones - Questionable, S. Aldama - Questionable, Z. Williams - Questionable
Hornets: K. Oubre Jr. - OUT, G. Hayward - Doubtful, C. Martin - Questionable
Suns: D. Booker - OUT, C. Johnson - OUT
Cavaliers: D. Garland - Doubtful, E. Mobley - Questionable, D. Wade - OUT
Thunder: A. Pokusevski - OUT, J. Robinson-Earl, O. Dieng - OUT
Magic: F. Wagner - OUT, J. Suggs - OUT, M. Wagner - OUT, Bol Bol - OUT, C. Okeke - OUT, K. Harris - OUT, A. Schofield - OUT
Pacers: C. Duarte - Questionable
76ers: J. Embiid - OUT
Spurs: D. Vassell - OUT, K. Bates-Diop - OUT
Knicks: RJ Barrett - OUT, O. Toppin - Questionable, D. Rose - Questionable
Bucks: J. Holiday - OUT, K. Middleton - OUT, J. Ingles - OUT, G. Hill - OUT
Raptors: O. Porter Jr. - OUT
Bulls: A. Drummond - Probable, T. Bradley - OUT, Jav. Green - OUT, D. Jones Jr. - Questionable
Rockets: J. Tate - OUT
Pelicans: Z. Williamson - OUT, B. Ingram - OUT, L. Nance Jr. - OUT
Trailblazers: J. Nurkic - Probable, G. Payton II - Questionable, J. Winslow - OUT, N. Little - OUT
Timberwolves: K. Towns - OUT, N. Reid - Questionable, J. McLaughlin - OUT, T. Prince - Questionable, B. Forbes - Questionable
Pistons: M. Bagley III - OUT, I. Livers - OUT
Warriors: S. Curry - OUT, A. Wiggins - OUT, J. Kuminga - OUT, J. Wiseman - OUT, JaM. Green - OUT, P. Baldwin Jr. - Probable
Heat: C. Martin - Probable, G. Vincent - Probable, D. Robinson - OUT, N. Jovic - OUT, D. Dedmon - Questionable
Lakers: A. Davis - OUT, L. James - OUT, R. Westbrook - Probable, L. Walker IV - OUT
Hawks: C. Capela - OUT
Main Slate Match-Ups w/ Game Totals & Point Spreads
Note: NBA position designations are never going to perfectly align between the major DFS sites. For the purposes of these newsletters, positional designations will default to DraftKings.
💫 = Favorite Play
Point Guards/Shooting Guards to Consider 🏀
💫SG Klay Thompson, GSW | DK: $7.6k, FD: $7.9k | vs. DET | Cash & GPP
Klay’s 54-point game on Monday was one of many insane individual shooting performances across the league over the last week. Sure, the game went into double overtime, but the fact that he put up 39 shots is beyond eye-popping even with the additional 10 minutes of game time. The Warriors’ injury report continues to include several key players (Curry, Wiggins, Kuminga, Wiseman, J. Green) and Klay receives the largest usage boost (+5.33%) and per 48-minute fantasy point increase (+30.65 FP) with those guys off the floor this season. His DFS salaries continue to creep up but he has posted at least 42.5 DKFP in four consecutive games so, assuming his increased role continues, then he remains a solid bargain at these sub-$8k salaries. He draws an excellent match-up against the Pistons who rank 29th in defensive efficiency and dead last against opposing shooting guards.
💫PG Jalen Brunson, NYK | DK: $7k, FD: $7.5k | vs. SAS | Cash & GPP
There is no shortage of stud guards to spend up on this massive slate but Brunson makes a ton of sense out of the $7,000 price range on both sites. He recently missed three games with a hip injury but returned on Monday to play a full workload -- 39 minutes with a 33% USG%. He has handled an additional +3.05% USG% with RJ Barrett (finger/out) off the court and the Brunson should enjoy an excellent match-up against the Spurs, who check in dead last in the NBA in defensive efficiency and allow an NBA-high 121.0 PPG.
💫PG/SG Cole Anthony, ORL | DK: $5.3k, FD: $6k | vs. OKC | Cash & GPP
The Magic once again have a lengthy list of players who are going to be out tonight while serving suspensions as a result of their tussle with the Pistons last Wednesday. They are expected to have only nine players available for tonight’s contest which means some (likely) increased minutes for someone like Cole Anthony. Anthony has played a key role off of the bench for most of the season so he may not land in the starting lineup. Regardless, he should have a great chance to crack the 30-minute threshold and he’s been very productive recently, averaging 1.18 FPPM over his last five games (1.07 FPPM L20Gms).
Other Guards to Consider:
PG Ja Morant, MEM | DK: $10.1k, FD: $10.5k | @ CHA | GPP Preferred
💫PG/SG James Harden, PHI | DK: $9.8k, FD: $10.3k | vs. IND | Cash & GPP
💫PG Trae Young, ATL | DK: $9.5k, FD: $9.8k | @ SAC | Cash & GPP
💫PG CJ McCollum, NOP | DK: $8.2k, FD: $8.6k | vs. HOU | Cash & GPP
PG Russell Westbrook, LAL | DK: $7.6k, FD: $7.8k | vs. MIA | GPP Preferred
PG Markelle Fultz, ORL | DK: $6.6k, FD: $6.8k | vs. OKC | Cash & GPP
SG/SF Caris LeVert, CLE | DK: $5.5k, FD: $6.5k | vs. PHX | DK Preferred
SG/SF Gary Trent Jr., TOR | DK: $5.5k, FD: $7k | vs. MIL | DK Preferred
SG/SF Austin Reaves, LAL | DK: $4.3k, FD: $4.7k | vs. MIA | GPP Preferred
PG/SG Patrick Beverly, LAL | DK: $4.2k, FD: $5.3k | vs. MIA | GPP/DK Preferred
Small Forwards/Power Forwards to Consider 🏀
💫PF Julius Randle, NYK | DK; $10.5k, FD: $9.9k | vs. SAS | Cash & GPP
Randle has been absolutely locked in over the last month. He has dropped at least 48.0 DKFP in 12 of his last 14 games and at least 58.0 DKFP in six straight. Randle’s best fantasy performance of the season came last Thursday against the Spurs: 41 points (six 3PM), 11 rebounds, seven assists, and one steal -- 69.75 DKFP. The regression game will hit at some point but I’m not going to bet on that happening tonight as he’ll get to face the Spurs and their awful defense once again… this time, at home in front of the raucous Knicks fans at MSG.
PF/C Jaren Jackson Jr., MEM | DK: $6.5k, FD: $7.3k | @ CHA | GPP Preferred
JJJ doesn’t have many huge games recently, which should keep his ownership in the single digits tonight. But if you’ve been keeping up with the trends this season, you know that we like to use bigs against Charlotte. The Hornets are one of the worst teams at defending opposing frontcourts. They’re allowing 34.2 FPPG to starting PFs. Jackson is also one of the best shot-blockers in the game and the Hornets allow an NBA-high 6.3 BLK/Gm. He makes for an excellent GPP play on this slate.
💫PF/C John Collins, ATL | DK: $6k, FD: $6.2k | @ SAC | Cash & GPP
Targeting Sacramento Kings games has been a profitable venture throughout the season. The Kings provide the ideal combination of up-tempo offense (4th in pace) and poor defense (24th in defensive efficiency). The Hawks are also a fast-paced team (7th in pace) and mid-pack in defensive efficiency. As a result, we have a mammoth 245-point over/under in this late-night match-up. Collins has seen a noticeable uptick in usage and production with Clint Capela (calf/out) off the court lately and he stands out as a strong play given his $6k/$6.2k salaries. Sacramento is on the second leg of a back-to-back so Collins may also benefit from slightly fatigued Kings’ players.
Other Forwards to Consider:
PF/C Giannis Antetokounmpo, MIL | DK: $11.9k, FD: $12.3k | @ TOR | GPP Preferred
SF/PF Paolo Banchero, ORL | DK: $8k, FD: $8k | vs. OKC | GPP Preferred
💫SF/PF Scottie Barnes, TOR | DK: $6.7k, FD: $8.1k | vs. MIL | DK Preferred
SF/PF Jalen Williams, OKC | DK: $5k, FD: $5.7k | @ ORL | GPP Preferred
💫SF/PF Jalen McDaniels, CHA | DK: $4.4k, FD: $5.5k | vs. MEM | DK Preferred
SF Gary Harris, ORL | DK: $3.8k, FD: $3.8k | vs. OKC | Cash & GPP
Centers to Consider 🏀
C Jonas Valanciunas, NOP | DK: $6.3k, FD: $6.6k | vs. HOU | Cash & GPP
J-Val can be a frustrating player to roster in DFS because he is prone to getting in foul trouble quite often. However, the Pelicans will be shorthanded in the frontcourt tonight with Zion Williamson and Larry Nance Jr. both out, along with Brandon Ingram. Only CJ McCollum sees a higher usage boost than Valanciunas with those three players off the court this season. If he manages to stay out of foul trouble and receive a few additional minutes, he can easily pay off these $6k salaries thanks to his 1.20 FPPM average (L20Gms).
💫C Paul Reed, PHI | DK: $3k, FD: $4.1k | vs. IND | Cash & GPP
Everyone’s favorite backup center is back in play tonight. Joel Embiid was recently ruled out with a foot injury which means Reed should be a good bet to handle 20+ minutes at center for the 76ers tonight. Reed has not started in any of the games that Embiid has missed this season, but when Embiid missed four games between 11/22 and 11/27, Reed played at least 20 minutes in all four contests, and as many as 31 minutes. He is often extremely efficient on an FPPM basis when he gets the minutes so Reed makes for a go-to value option tonight.
Other Centers to Consider:
C Domantas Sabonis, SAC | DK: $10.4k, FD: $10.1k | vs. ATL | Cash & GPP
C Bam Adebayo, MIA | DK: $8.7k, FD: $8.8k | @ LAL | GPP Preferred
PF/C Bobby Portis Jr., MIL | DK: $6.6k, FD: $6.5k | @ TOR | GPP Preferred
C Wendell Carter Jr., ORL | DK: $6.4k, FD: $6.5k | vs. OKC | GPP Preferred
C Nicolas Claxton, BKN | DK: $6.3k, FD: $7k | @ CHI | DK Preferred
💫C Onyeka Okongwu, ATL | DK: $5.8k, FD: $6.7k | @ SAC | Cash & GPP
💫C Steven Adams, MEM | DK: $5.4k, FD: $6.8k | @ CHA | DK Preferred
NBA Player Props 📊
Player Prop or Bet | Odds | Unit Bet Size
Jaren Jackson Jr. OVER 2.5 Blocks | +140 (DraftKings) | 1.5 Units
Julius Randle OVER 44.5 Points/Rebounds/Assists | -115 (DraftKings) | 2.0 Units
PrizePicks Power Play ⚡
Here is a two-pick “Power Play” I’m liking for today's NBA action over on PrizePicks! Nothing is ever a guarantee to hit but I put my own money on these bets so I don't just lightly throw these out there without believing they'll cash! If it hits, it will return 3x the wager.
Julius Randle MORE than 15.5 REBS + ASTS
James Harden MORE than 24.5 Points
🆕 Props Edge+ 🆕
In LineStar’s ongoing mission to improve, innovate, and help you reel in some cash, we are introducing Props Edge+ for NBA – available for LineStar Premium users! This tool can help you find value and mispriced odds on player props from sportsbooks and, more specifically, for PrizePicks and UnderDog Fantasy!
Speaking of props, put the Props Edge+ tool to use by signing up for PrizePicks (Promo code: BETFULLY) or Underdog (Promo code: LINESTAR). You'll receive a 100% match on first deposits up to $100 PLUS a free two-month subscription to LineStar Premium. Many people may not realize that you can legally place prop bets in most states using UnderDog (or PrizePicks) – it’s called Pick'Em, and it’s incredibly easy.
That will wrap us up with today’s “Daily Dribble” edition! Once again, you can find me on Twitter or in LineStar chat @Ryan_Humphries. Good luck everyone!