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Top NBA DFS Plays & Prop Bets 1/6 | Running Through Friday's Hefty 11-Game Slate!
Another sizable NBA slate is on tap with 11 games on the Friday schedule! Let’s jump into the DFS plays and props to consider for today!
Written By: Ryan Humphries on Twitter & LineStar chat @Ryan_Humphries
Straight Locks🔒 | NBA Props w/ Shannon & Tyler!
DFS Main Slate Rundown 📰
What an ugly slate last night, eh? Can’t remember the last time I (pretty comfortably) cashed double-ups with a ~210 score on DraftKings. The good news is that we’ll have many more games to choose players from on tonight’s huge 11-game slate so let’s hope that blowouts have less of an effect on our DFS and prop bet ventures today. As always, best of luck to you guys, and enjoy your weekend!
Today’s Key Injuries:
Trailblazers: J. Grant - Questionable, J. Nurkic - Probable, G. Payton II - Questionable, J. Winslow - OUT
Bulls: A. Caruso - Questionable, Jav. Green - Questionable
76ers: J. Embiid - OUT
Knicks: RJ Barrett - OUT
Raptors: O. Porter Jr. - OUT
Nets: TJ Warren - Questionable
Pelicans: Z. Williamson - OUT, B. Ingram - OUT, L. Nance Jr. - Questionable. G. Hernangomez - Questionable
Wizards: B. Beal - OUT, T. Gibson - Questionable
Thunder: A. Pokusevski - OUT, J. Robinson-Earl - OUT, Jay. Williams - OUT, O. Dieng - OUT
Hornets: K. Oubre Jr. - OUT, G. Hayward - Questionable
Bucks: G. Antetokounmpo - Probable, J. Holiday - Probable, K. Middleton - OUT, G. Hill - Probable, M. Beauchamp - Probable
Pistons: M. Bagley III - OUT, I. Livers - OUT
Spurs: D. Vassell - OUT, J. Richardson - Questionable, K. Bates-Diop - Probable
Cavaliers: D. Mitchell - OUT, D. Garland - Questionable, D. Wade - OUT
Nuggets: Jeff Green - OUT
Clippers: P. George - Questionable, K. Leonard - Questionable, N. Batum - OUT
Timberwolves: K. Towns - OUT, N. Reid - Questionable, J. McLaughlin - Questionable
Heat: C. Martin - Questionable, D. Robinson - OUT, N. Jovic - OUT, D. Dedmon - Probable
Suns: D. Booker - OUT, C. Johnson - OUT, C. Payne - OUT
Hawks: C. Capela - Questionable
Lakers: A. Davis - OUT, L. James - Probable, R. Westbrook - Probable, L. Walker IV - OUT, A. Reaves - OUT, T. Brown Jr. - OUT
Main Slate Match-Ups w/ Game Totals & Point Spreads
Note: NBA position designations are never going to perfectly align between the major DFS sites. For the purposes of these newsletters, positional designations will default to DraftKings.
💫 = Favorite Play
Point Guards/Shooting Guards to Consider 🏀
💫PG/SG James Harden, PHI | DK: $10.1k, FD: $10.2k | vs. CHI | Cash & GPP
Somewhat surprisingly, for such a big slate, there are not a ton of significant injury impacts but Joel Embiid being out for a second consecutive game would be one of them. James Harden is the most expensive guard option on the slate but he has handled an additional +6.79% USG% when Embiid is off the court -- the top mark on the team. On top of his usual high-end peripheral stats (10.8 APG, 6.0 RPG, 2.1 STL+BLK/Gm), Harden likely puts up some extra shots this evening. He’s also at home tonight where he has averaged an additional +9.8% FPPG.
SG/SF Buddy Hield, IND | DK: $6.2k, FD: $6.7k | vs. POR | Cash & GPP
Hield is on another one of his solid runs at the moment, averaging 22.8 PPG, 1.23 FPPM, and 41.2 FPPG over his last five contests. This game features a close spread (IND -2) and the second-highest total on the slate (237.5 O/U). Hield dropped 46.75 DKFP on Portland when he faced them about a month ago and he could find similar success tonight, especially if this is one of those games where he garners 35+ minutes and gets his shot falling early.
PG/SF Josh Richardson, SAS | DK: $3.8k, FD: $4.8k | vs. DET | DK Preferred
Richardson (listed as probable tonight) is playable on FanDuel but more of a solid value option on DraftKings where he is priced under $4,000. Devin Vassell (knee) is out for a second consecutive game which likely opens up some additional minutes for Richardson. He earned 29 minutes on Wednesday and is averaging 0.95 FPPM over his last five games. Similar minutes tonight would lead to fairly comfortable value against a Pistons team that ranks 29th in defensive efficiency and 28th versus reserves over their last 20 games. There is not very much stand-out guard value on this slate at the moment but Richardson is a worthy cheap target.
Other Guards to Consider:
PG LaMelo Ball, CHA | DK: $9.9k, FD: $9.6k | @ MIL | GPP Preferred
PG Damian Lillard, POR | DK: $9.7k, FD: $9.1k | @ IND | GPP/FD Preferred
💫PG Tyrese Haliburton, IND | DK: $9k, FD: $9.7k | vs. POR | Cash & GPP/DK Preferred
💫PG/SG Dejounte Murray, ATL | DK: $8.3k, FD: $8.7k | @ LAL | Cash & GPP
PG Tyrese Maxey, PHI | DK: $7k, FD: $7.1k | vs. CHI | GPP Preferred
PG/SG Anfernee Simons | DK: $6.7k, FD: $6.2k | @ IND | GPP Preferred (Significant USG% boost if J. Grant is out)
SG/SF Bogdan Bogdanovic, ATL | DK: $5.9k, FD: $6.4k | @ LAL | Cash & GPP
PG Killian Hayes, DET | DK: $5.5k, FD: $6k | @ SAS | GPP Preferred
💫PG Dennis Schroder, LAL | DK: $5.2k, FD: $5.6k | vs. ATL | Cash & GPP
Small Forwards/Power Forwards to Consider 🏀
💫PF/C Giannis Antetokounmpo, MIL | DK: $12k, FD: $12k | vs. CHA | Cash & GPP
Giannis is on the injury report with some knee soreness but is listed as probable for tonight’s game. The Greek Freak is doing Greek Freak things and he has cashed in on at least 72.25 DKFP in four consecutive games. He’ll now draw what is arguably his best match-up in weeks against a Hornets team that simply cannot defend opposing bigs. They rank 28th against PFs over their last 20 games and are allowing 122.2 PPG in that same stretch. Giannis should have his way around the basket but the Bucks (-10) are the largest favorites on this slate so blowout risk is a concern.
💫SF/PF Tobias Harris, PHI | DK: $6.6k, FD: $6.6k | vs. CHI | Cash & GPP
Harris isn’t often the most exciting play but he’s a solid floor play to consider with Joel Embiid sidelined tonight. Harris has taken on a notable +4.98% usage bump when Embiid has been off the floor this season -- his rebounds and assists see a slight bump without Embiid as well. He’ll be a good bet for 40+ fantasy points tonight which we’d happily take at $6,600 on both sites.
💫SF/SG Gary Trent Jr., TOR | DK: $5.8k, FD: $7.1k | vs. NYK | DK Preferred
It’s a bit more difficult to get to him at $7,100 on FanDuel, but if Trent keeps chucking the ball as he has lately, then he looks like a steal on DraftKings at $5,800. He has started the last three games, played at least 39 minutes in each contest, and he’s averaging 21 shot attempts per game in that stretch. With those extra minutes, he is also picking up some decent peripherals and has at least five rebounds, two assists, and two steals in his previous three games. This game does have one of the lowest combined paces on the slate but it really is hard to hate on Trent’s minutes and usage as of late.
Other Forwards to Consider:
PF Julius Randle, NYK | DK: $10.6k, FD: $10.1k | @ TOR | GPP Preferred
SF/PF Kyle Kuzma, WAS | DK: $8.4k, FD: $7.7k | @ OKC | GPP/FD Preferred
💫SF Keldon Johnson, SAS | DK: $6.8k, FD: $6.8k | vs. DET | Cash & GPP
PF/C John Collins, ATL | DK: $6.4k, FD: $6.5k | @ LAL | GPP Preferred (Cash play if Capela is still out)
SF/SG Caris LeVert, CLE | DK: $5.8k, FD: $6.6k | @ DEN | GPP Preferred
💫SF/PF De’Andre Hunter, ATL | DK: $4.9k, FD: $5.9k | @ LAL | DK Preferred
SF/PF Jalen McDaniels, CHA | DK: $4.8k, FD: $5.8k | @ MIL | GPP Preferred (Monitor G. Hayward news)
SF/SG Landry Shamet, PHX | DK; $4.5k, FD: $5.5k | vs. MIA | GPP Preferred
💫SF/PF Kenrich Williams, OKC | DK: $3.7k, FD: $4.6k | vs. WAS | DK Preferred
Centers to Consider 🏀
💫C Thomas Bryant, LAL | DK: $6.2k, FD: $6.3k | vs. ATL | Cash & GPP
The Lakers are dealing with more injuries than usual so, on top of Bryant’s already solid rebounding potential (11.8 RPG L5Gms), he may see a decent uptick in offensive usage. LeBron can't take every shot, right? Bryant is averaging an impressive 1.21 FPPM over his last five starts and brings excellent upside to the table at these low $6k salaries. Over the last 20 games, the Hawks have allowed the 7th most rebounds per game on the slate and the 5th most FPPG.
💫C Daniel Gafford, WAS | DK: $4.6k, FD: $5.4k | @ OKC | Cash & GPP
Gafford has been a great value play for a hot minute now, posting at least 28.0 DKFP in four consecutive games. He sees a slight usage boost with Bradley Beal (hamstring/out) off the floor and his Thunder opponent is extremely thin on the frontcourt. Gafford is a strong double-double candidate tonight and carries some very affordable DFS salaries. He may see reduced run if OKC decides to play small but, for now, we’ll assume he gets his usual 25-30 minutes.
Other Centers to Consider:
💫C Nikola Vucevic, CHI | DK: $7.3k, FD: $8.1k | @ PHI | Cash & GPP
C Myles Turner, IND | DK: $6.7k, FD: $7.5k | vs. POR | GPP Preferred
C Jonas Valanciunas, NOP | DK: $6.5k, FD: $6.7k | vs. BKN | GPP Preferred
💫C Brook Lopez, MIL | DK: $6k, FD: $6.7k | vs. CHA | Cash & GPP/DK Preferred
C Nicolas Claxton, BKN | DK: $5.9k, FD: $7k | @ NOP | DK Preferred
C Montrezl Harrell, PHI | DK: $4.5k, FD: $4.8k | vs. CHI | GPP Preferred
C Mike Muscala, OKC | DK: $3.4k, FD: $3.9k | vs. WAS | GPP Preferred
NBA Player Props 📊
Player Prop or Bet | Odds | Unit Bet Size
LaMelo Ball OVER 35.5 Points + Rebounds + Assists | -120 (Caesars) | 2.0 Units
Anthony Edwards OVER 31.5 Points + Rebounds | -120 (DraftKings) | 2.0 Units
PrizePicks Power Play ⚡
Here is a two-pick “Power Play” I’m liking for today's NBA action over on PrizePicks! Nothing is ever a guarantee to hit but I put my own money on these bets so I don't just lightly throw these out there without believing they'll cash! If it hits, it will return 3x the wager.
LaMelo Ball MORE than 35.5 PTS+REBS+ASTS
Anthony Edwards MORE than 31.5 PTS+REBS
🆕 Props Edge+ 🆕
In LineStar’s ongoing mission to improve, innovate, and help you reel in some cash, we are introducing Props Edge+ for NBA – available for LineStar Premium users! This tool can help you find value and mispriced odds on player props from sportsbooks and, more specifically, for PrizePicks and UnderDog Fantasy!
Speaking of props, put the Props Edge+ tool to use by signing up for PrizePicks (Promo code: BETFULLY) or Underdog (Promo code: LINESTAR). You'll receive a 100% match on first deposits up to $100 PLUS a free two-month subscription to LineStar Premium. Many people may not realize that you can legally place prop bets in most states using UnderDog (or PrizePicks) – it’s called Pick'Em, and it’s incredibly easy.
That will wrap us up with today’s “Daily Dribble” edition! Once again, you can find me on Twitter or in LineStar chat @Ryan_Humphries. Good luck everyone!
