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Top NBA DFS Plays & Prop Bets 2/28 | Closing Out February with a Hefty 10-Game Slate!
An imposing 10-game slate lands on the Tuesday docket so let’s dig our heels in and see if we can locate some optimal DFS plays and prop picks!
Written By: Ryan Humphries on Twitter & LineStar chat @Ryan_Humphries
DFS Main Slate Rundown 📰
We’ll look to close out the month of February with a bang as a hefty 10-game slate heads our way this evening. The first games will not tip off until 7:30 ET so there is a little extra time to get DFS lineups and/or prop picks sorted as well. We have our hands full with this sizable and likely high-scoring slate, so let’s jump to it! Best of luck!
Today’s Key Injuries:
Bulls: G. Dragic - OUT
Raptors: C. Koloko - Questionable, D. Banton - Doubtful
Lakers: L. James - OUT, A. Davis - Probable, D. Russell - Doubtful
Grizzlies: S. Adams - OUT
Wizards: K. Porzingis - OUT, M. Morris - OUT
Hawks: None
Bucks: G. Antetokounmpo - Probable, W. Matthews - OUT
Nets: B. Simmons - OUT, E. Sumner - OUT
Kings: D. Fox - Questionable
Thunder: S. Gilgeous-Alexander - OUT, A. Pokusevski - OUT
Nuggets: J. Murray - Questionable, A. Gordon - Probable, Z. Nnaji - OUT
Rockets: K. Porter Jr. - Questionable, J. Tate - OUT
Pacers: None
Mavericks: M. Kleber - Questionable
Spurs: D. Vassell - OUT, T. Jones - Questionable, R. Langford - OUT, I. Roby - OUT, K. Birch - OUT
Jazz: J. Clarkson - OUT, C. Sexton - OUT
Timberwolves: K. Towns - OUT, R. Gobert - Probable, J. Nowell - Questionable
Clippers: I. Zubac - Questionable
Trailblazers: A. Simons - OUT, J. Nurkic - OUT, R. Acridiacono - OUT, J. Winslow - OUT
Warriors: S. Curry - OUT, D. Green - Probable, A. Wiggins - OUT
Main Slate Match-Ups w/ Game Totals & Point Spreads
Top DraftKings & FanDuel DFS Plays
Note: NBA position designations are never going to perfectly align between the major DFS sites. For the purposes of these newsletters, positional designations will default to DraftKings.
💫 = Favorite Play
Point Guards/Shooting Guards to Consider 🏀
💫PG Damian Lillard, POR | DK: $11.5k, FD: $11.2k | @ GSW | Cash & GPP
The guard position is filled to the brim with excellent options at every salary level tonight but how can we not lead off with a spotlight on Lillard? It was Dame Time for all four quarters on Sunday en route to a 71-point performance (93.0 DKFP) from Lillard against the Rockets. He’s averaging a ridiculous 40.0 PPG in the month of February to go along with 7.0 APG, 6.0 RPG, and 12.8 3PA/Gm. Of course, we’re not going to expect 70+ from him again tonight, but his usage should be as high as ever due to some key injury absences. Anfernee Simons and Jusuf Nurkic are both out tonight. If we include the injured Justise Winslow and the recently traded Josh Hart into the sample size, Lillard has averaged a ridiculous +30.18 points (per 48 min.), +13.6% USG%, and +34.7 FP (per 48 min.) when those players have been off the court this season. It’s a homecoming game for Lillard, who was born in Oakland, CA, and the Warriors continue to play at the fastest pace in the NBA. Lillard has had strong games against the Warriors in two previous meetings this season, most recently putting up a 33-10-11 triple-double (66.5 DKFP) against them earlier this month. He’s pricey, but it’s hard to hate on Lillard as a prime spend-up option tonight.
💫PG Dennis Schroder, LAL | DK: $4.9k, FD: $5.5k | @ MEM | Cash & GPP
We’ll jump right down to the value range and highlight Dennis Schroder. The big news this week centers around LeBron James, who will miss multiple weeks with a foot injury that he sustained in Sunday’s win over the Mavericks. The newly acquired D’Angelo Russell is also unlikely to suit up tonight due to an ankle injury -- he’s officially listed as doubtful. So if we add up some players who are either injured or traded away (LeBron, D. Russell, R. Westbrook, P. Beverly, J. Toscano-Anderson, and K. Nunn) and punch them into the LineStar Usage Matrix, marking them all as “out” tonight, we’ll see that in 102.8 minutes played without those players on the court this season, Dennis Schroder has benefited the most with a +6.76% usage bump and +16.74 FP (per 48 min.) average. The Lakers may get blown out tonight but Schroder should be locked into solid minutes and high usage regardless.
💫PG Kris Dunn, UTA | DK: $3.6k, FD: $4.5k | vs. SAS | Cash & GPP
I’ll start by saying that it’s going to be hard NOT to play Kris Dunn tonight. But this is very likely going to be a case of “good chalk” that you’ll just have to eat and look to differentiate elsewhere (in GPPs). The Jazz will be very shorthanded in the backcourt with Jordan Clarkson and Collin Sexton both out tonight and Mike Conley now playing for the Grizzlies. Dunn snapped for 40.25 DKFP in just 23 minutes against the Spurs on Saturday, and that was with Jordan Clarkson healthy and playing 33 minutes of his own. The Jazz will now draw the same Spurs match-up tonight. The Spurs continue to own the worst defense in the NBA while playing at the 7th fastest pace. If I had to guess, Dunn should end up in the starting lineup tonight and he could push for 30+ minutes if that is the case. He has averaged 1.45 FPPM in his two games with the Jazz, so it is clear as day to see how he should smash value tonight.
Other Guards to Consider:
PG Fred VanVleet, TOR | DK: $9.7k, FD: $8.2k | vs. CHI | FD Preferred
PG Trae Young, ATL | DK: $9.5k, FD: $9.8k | vs. WAS | Cash & GPP
PG Jamal Murray, DEN | DK: $8k, FD: $8.1k | @ HOU | GPP Preferred (Note: Murray is currently questionable)
💫SG Bradley Beal, WAS | DK: $7.6k, FD: $9.3k | @ ATL | DK Preferred
PG/SG Josh Giddey, OKC | DK: $7.5k, FD: $7.7k | vs. SAC | GPP Preferred
PG Russell Westbrook, LAC | DK: $7.1k, FD: $7.6k | vs. MIN | GPP Preferred
SG/SF Bennedict Mathurin, IND | DK: $5.2k, FD: $5.6k | @ DAL | GPP Preferred
SG Malik Monk, SAC | DK: $4.9k, FD: $5.4k | @ OKC | GPP Preferred (If D. Fox is out)
SF Malik Beasley, LAL | DK: $4.5k, FD: $5.2k | @ MEM | GPP Preferred
💫SG Isaiah Joe, OKC | DK: $4.4k, FD: $5.3k | vs. SAC | Cash & GPP
SG/SF Ochai Agbaji, UTA | DK: $3.8k, FD: $3.9k | vs. SAS | GPP Preferred
Small Forwards/Power Forwards to Consider 🏀
SF/PF Kyle Kuzma, WAS | DK: $7.8k, FD: $7.5k | @ ATL | Cash & GPP
The forward positions aren’t filled with as many standout DFS plays as we have with guards today, but on a 10-game slate, you’re still going to find some options that catch your eye. In four games since returning from a four-game injury absence, Kyle Kuzma hasn’t exactly been a consistent DFS option. However, we’ll look for him to bounce back tonight while shouldering a heavier offensive workload with Kristaps Porzingis and Monte Morris both sidelined. Kuzma has handled a team-high +6.75% usage bump with those two players off of the court this season and he draws a plus match-up this evening. The Hawks have ranked 29th against opposing power forwards in their last 20 games and it’s a nice pace-up spot for the Wizards as well (WAS: 20th in pace, ATL: 8th in pace).
💫SF Luguentz Dort, OKC | DK: $5k, FD: $5.7k | vs. SAC | Cash & GPP
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander is set to miss his third consecutive game due to ankle and abdomen injuries. SGA ranks 9th in the NBA with a 36.4% usage rate this season so there is a significant amount of offensive slack available for other Thunder players to pick up. Lu Dort possesses a team-high +4.92% usage increase and +11.07 FP (per 48 min.) average with SGA off the court. Given his modest $5k DFS salaries, Dort makes for a fairly reliable floor play and he has shown off a 6x-7x ceiling in recent games as well.
💫PF/C Jarred Vanderbilt, LAL | DK: $4.1k, FD: $5.8k | @ MEM | Cash & GPP
Vanderbilt will be another player who should benefit directly from a depleted Lakers rotation. He came up with a huge 15-point, 17-rebound, four-steal double-double in Sunday’s comeback win against the Mavs, and he ended the night with 47.25 DKFP in just 27 minutes. He’s been a productive player this season, averaging 1.05 FPPM across his 57 games played, and if he’s in line for around 30 minutes tonight, he’ll be a strong value target… particularly on DraftKings at $4,100.
Other Forwards to Consider:
SF/PF Lauri Markkanen, UTA | DK: $9.4k, FD: $8.6k | vs. SAS | FD Preferred
SF/SG Klay Thompson, GSW | DK: $8.1k, FD: $8.2k | vs. POR | GPP Preferred
💫SF/SG Talen Horton-Tucker, UTA | DK: $5.9k, FD: $5.9k | vs. SAS | Cash & GPP
💫PF/C Kelly Olynyk, UTA | DK: $5.6k, FD: $6k | vs. SAS | GPP Preferred
SF/PF Keegan Murray, SAC | DK: $4.4k, FD: $5.2k | @ OKC | GPP Preferred
SF/PF Tari Eason, HOU | DK: $4k, FD: $5.5k | vs. DEN | DK Preferred
SF Matisse Thybulle, POR | DK: $3.5k, FD: $4.2k | @ GSW | GPP Preferred
Centers to Consider 🏀
💫C Nikola Jokic, DEN | DK: $11.8k, FD: $12.2k | @ HOU | Cash & GPP
Given the amount of value available on this slate, it won’t be much of a challenge spending up on a superstar like Jokic. As Damian Lillard displayed a couple of nights ago, the Rockets are not a team that specializes in defense but that also opens the door for blowout potential. The Nuggets are 10.5-point favorites tonight and they have beaten the Rockets by 16 and 20 points in two meetings this season. In those two games, Jokic put up 59.5 DKFP and 50.75 DKFP, respectively, and played under 30 minutes in both games. With that said, you could argue that Jokic has the most raw DFS upside on this slate, and if the Rockets can keep things close and force Jokic to play 35+ minutes, we may get another huge triple-double out of him this evening. Good floor, an elite ceiling, but there is a touch of risk.
C Kevon Looney, GSW | DK: $5k, FD: $5.7k | vs. POR | Cash & GPP
I’m not sure what has gotten into Kevon Looney lately, but he’s been a really strong source of DFS value for the last couple of weeks. In his previous five games, Looney is averaging a sturdy 1.20 FPPM and 33.10 FPPG with four double-doubles. Looney’s last poor performance did come against this same Trailblazers team back on Feb. 8th, but that was a road game where he found himself in some quick foul trouble and he ultimately played just 14 minutes. He is averaging only 2.7 personal fouls per game at home this season along with +17% more FPPG, compared to on the road. No one ever goes out of their way to roster Kevon Looney in DFS lineups, but he may be a worthy guy to target out of this $5k range tonight. He should have a great chance to log another double-double against a Trailblazers frontcourt that doesn’t have Jusuf Nurkic available to man the paint.
Other Centers to Consider:
C Anthony Davis, LAL | DK: $10.3k, FD: $11k | @ MEM | GPP Preferred
💫C Myles Turner, IND | DK: $7.4k, FD: $8k | @ DAL | GPP Preferred
💫C Walker Kessler, UTA | DK: $6.7k, FD: $7.8k | vs. SAS | DK Preferred
C Jakob Poeltl, TOR | DK: $6.1k, FD: $8.4k | vs. CHI | DK Preferred
💫C Daniel Gafford, WAS | DK: $4.5k, FD: $6k | @ ATL | DK Preferred
C Onyeka Okongwu, ATL | DK: $4.2k, FD: $5.6k | vs. WAS | DK Preferred
NBA Player Props 📊
Player Prop or Bet | Odds | Unit Bet Size
Dennis Schroder OVER 21.5 Points + Assists | -105 (DraftKings) | 2.0 Units
Dillon Brooks UNDER 14.5 Points + Assists | -125 (DraftKings) | 2.0 Units
PrizePicks Power Play ⚡
Here is a two-pick “Power Play” I’m liking for today's NBA action over on PrizePicks! Nothing is ever a guarantee to hit but I put my own money on these bets so I don't just lightly throw these out there without believing they'll cash! If it hits, it will return 3x the wager.
Anthony Davis LESS than 3.5 BLKS+STLS
Fred VanVleet MORE than 6.5 Assists
🆕 Props AI 🆕
In LineStar’s ongoing mission to improve, innovate, and help you reel in some cash, we are introducing Props AI for NBA – available for LineStar Premium users! This tool can help you find value and mispriced odds on player props from sportsbooks and, more specifically, for PrizePicks and UnderDog Fantasy!
Speaking of props, put the Props AI tool to use by signing up for PrizePicks (Promo code: BETFULLY) or Underdog (Promo code: LINESTAR). You'll receive a 100% match on first deposits up to $100 PLUS a free two-month subscription to LineStar Premium. Many people may not realize that you can legally place prop bets in most states using UnderDog (or PrizePicks) – it’s called Pick'Em, and it’s incredibly easy.
That will wrap us up with today’s “Daily Dribble” edition! Once again, you can find me on Twitter or in LineStar chat @Ryan_Humphries. Good luck everyone!