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Top NBA DFS Plays & Prop Bets 2/3 | Diving Into Friday's Eight-Game Slate!
Let’s get set to kick off the weekend with a loaded eight-game Friday night NBA slate!
Written By: Ryan Humphries on Twitter & LineStar chat @Ryan_Humphries
DFS Main Slate Rundown 📰
Happy Friday to the LineStar fam! Let’s head into the weekend on a high note by crushing tonight’s eight-game slate! We’ll have plenty of intriguing match-ups to dig into so let’s see if we can locate some top DFS plays and props to target! Best of luck!
Today’s Key Injuries:
Note: I’m getting this NBA newsletter out earlier than usual so there is a decent chance that some additional injury news will pop up later in the day which may not be included in this list.
Trailblazers: J. Grant - Probable, J. Nurkic - OUT, J. Winslow - OUT
Wizards: None
Kings: D. Fox - OUT
Pacers: T. Haliburton - Questionable
Hornets: K. Oubre Jr. - OUT, D. Smith Jr. - Probable, C. Martin - Questionable
Pistons: M. Bagley III - OUT, C. Joseph - OUT
Suns: D. Booker - OUT, C. Payne - OUT, L. Shamet - OUT
Celtics: M. Smart - OUT
Magic: C. Okeke - OUT, J. Isaac - Questionable
Timberwolves: K. Towns - OUT, R. Gobert - Questionable
Raptors: OG Anunoby - OUT
Rockets: K. Porter Jr. - OUT, J. Green - OUT, J. Smith Jr. - Questionable
76ers: J. Embiid - Questionable
Spurs: D. Vassell - OUT, T. Jones - OUT, J. Sochan - OUT, R. Langford - OUT
Hawks: None
Jazz: None
Main Slate Match-Ups w/ Game Totals & Point Spreads
Top DraftKings & FanDuel DFS Plays
Note: NBA position designations are never going to perfectly align between the major DFS sites. For the purposes of these newsletters, positional designations will default to DraftKings.
💫 = Favorite Play
Point Guards/Shooting Guards to Consider 🏀
💫PG Fred VanVleet, TOR | DK: $8.3k, FD: $8.9k | @ HOU | Cash & GPP
This man is on a tear at the moment and is coming fresh off of a massive performance on Wednesday night when he posted a 34/12/10 triple-double (73.0 DKFP) against the Jazz. VanVleet has poured in at least 40.5 DKFP in nine consecutive games and he put up at least 49.75 DKFP in five games during that stretch. OG Anunoby (wrist/out) will miss his fourth consecutive game and when he has been off the court this season, FVV has handled a team-high +4.54% usage boost and +6.88 per 48-minute fantasy point increase. He’ll draw a juicy match-up against the Rockets who have been one of the worst defensive teams in the NBA (28th in def. efficiency). The Rockets also surrender the most opponent steals/gm (9.0) and blocks/gm (6.0). VanVleet has been pouring in those premium stats as well, averaging 3.4 STL+BLK/gm over his last five. When Toronto faced Houston earlier this season, FVV came away with 32 points, four assists, three rebounds, four steals, and a block -- good for 54.75 DKFP. He’ll have plenty of “50 burger” upside again tonight.
💫PG/SG Josh Richardson, SAS | DK: $4.8k, FD: $5.5k | vs. PHI | Cash & GPP
The Spurs enter tonight’s game very thin in the backcourt. Devin Vassell (knee/out) hasn’t played in a month, Romeo Langford is out, and starting PG Tre Jones is listed as doubtful with a foot injury. They’ll also be without starting forward Jeremy Sochan who sustained a quad injury on Wednesday. Assuming Tre Jones ends up sidelined tonight, that opens up significant minutes for guys like Josh Richardson and Malaki Branham. Jones exited Wednesday’s game with his foot injury after playing only nine minutes. Josh Richardson took over off of the bench and put up 19 points, eight rebounds, three assists, and two steals in 29 minutes (36.5 DKFP). He has averaged 0.95 FPPM on the season so it’s easy to see how he should be a strong candidate to return value on his current DFS salaries, assuming he starts and records 30-35 minutes. The match-up with Philly is not ideal (PHI: 5th in def. efficiency & 23rd in pace) but, even in a potential blowout (SAS +10), Richardson likely handles strong minutes and usage this evening.
Update: Tre Jones is officially out tonight.
💫PG/SG Davion Mitchell, SAC | DK: $3k, FD: $3.8k | @ IND | Cash & GPP
Kings’ starting PG De’Aaron Fox will not be playing in tonight’s game due to personal reasons. Fox has missed three games this season and Davion Mitchell has slid into the starting lineup in each of those games while playing at least 25 minutes. He popped in plenty of games last season when he got the starting nod but Mitchell has been painfully unproductive in the 2022-23 season, averaging just 0.67 FPPM. However, the clear attraction to him tonight stems from his rock-bottom DFS salaries. It’s going to be very tough for him to completely bomb if he’s poised to play 25-35 minutes and he gets a nice match-up against a very up-tempo Pacers team that ranks 4th in pace and 22nd in defensive efficiency.
Other Guards to Consider:
PG Damian Lillard, POR | DK: $10.6k, FD: $10.2k | @ WAS | Cash & GPP
PG LaMelo Ball, CHA | DK: $9.7k, FD: $9.1k | @ DET | GPP Preferred
PG TJ McConnell, IND | DK: $6.9k, FD: $6k | vs. SAC | Cash & GPP (Only if T. Haliburton is out)
PG Mike Conley, UTA | DK: $5.7k, FD: $6.1k | vs. ATL | Cash & GPP
💫PG/SG Alec Burks, DET | DK: $5.1k, FD: $5k | vs. CHA | Cash & GPP
PG Monte Morris, WAS | DK: $4.9k, FD: $4.8k | vs. POR | GPP Preferred
SG Malik Monk, SAC | DK: $4.8k, FD: $5.3k | @ IND | GPP Preferred
💫PG/SG Malaki Branham, SAS | DK: $3.6k, FD: $4.4k | vs. PHI | GPP Preferred (Cash play if he starts)
Small Forwards/Power Forwards to Consider 🏀
PF/C Kristaps Porzingis, WAS | DK: $8.9k, FD: $9.4k | vs. POR | GPP Preferred
The oft-injured Kristaps Porzingis has been a DFS headache throughout the season but when he’s healthy and handling mid-30s minutes, he provides ample upside. He can stuff the stat sheet in all five categories, as he did against the Spurs on Monday when he put up 17 points, nine rebounds, seven assists, five blocks, and three steals (54.25 DKFP) in just 30 minutes. The eight combined blocks and steals are certainly an outlier but he does occasionally pop in those two categories. He’ll have a great match-up ahead of him against Portland, who has ranked 25th versus opposing centers over their last 20 games and have allowed the 7th most points in the paint per game this season. Portland also won’t have starting C Jusuf Nurkic available tonight. This game owns a lofty 236.5 over/under with a close four-point spread and Porzingis has the potential to dominate against a weakened Trailblazers frontcourt.
💫PF Tari Eason, HOU | DK: $5.8k, FD: $6k | vs. TOR | GPP Preferred (Cash play if he starts and/or Jabari Smith Jr. is out)
Tari Eason is one of the more intriguing DFS options on today’s slate. He’s been stellar on a per-minute basis lately and he most recently posted an absolute nutty 48.75 DKFP total in just 19 minutes played on Wednesday against OKC -- in those 19 minutes he put up a preposterous 21 shots that led to 20 points, corralled 13 rebounds, and added three steals, two blocks, and an assist. That sort of sub-20-minute performance is not repeatable but the Rockets are short on shooters with Kevin Porter Jr. and Jalen Green (HOU’s two highest usage players) still out with injuries. If PF Jabari Smith Jr. (ankle/questionable) ends up being ruled out tonight, Eason would likely start and push for 30+ minutes. If that is the case, he may qualify as a smash play. For now, pending the Smith news, we’ll assume Eason continues to come off of the bench. He’s certainly worth a look in GPPs either way.
SF/PF Harrison Barnes, SAC | DK: $5.3k, FD: $5.7k | @ IND | Cash & GPP
Barnes is always reliable from a big minutes standpoint (34.7 Min/Gm L20Gms) but his fantasy outputs have been fairly up and down lately. De’Aaron Fox's absence should bolster his offensive usage this evening and Barnes has handled a +3.12% usage boost with Fox off the court this season. As noted in Davion Mitchell’s spotlight above, this match-up against the Pacers is one of the best on the slate thanks to their fast offensive tempo and lackluster defensive play. Barnes had a 35.25 DKFP performance against Indiana earlier this season and while his last few games do not inspire much confidence, I would look for him to put up another respectable DFS score in that mid-30s range again tonight.
Other Forwards to Consider:
💫SF/PF Lauri Markkanen, UTA | DK: $8.4k, FD: $8.7k | vs. ATL | Cash & GPP
SF/PF Scottie Barnes, TOR | DK: $7.7k, FD: $8.2k | @ HOU | GPP Preferred
SF Saddiq Bey, DET | DK: $5.8k, FD: $6.5k | vs. CHA | GPP Preferred
💫SF Eric Gordon, HOU | DK: $5.5k, FD: $5.4k | vs. TOR | Cash & GPP
💫SF/PF Deni Avdija, WAS | DK: $5k, FD: $6.1k | vs. POR | DK Preferred
SF/PF Aaron Nesmith, IND | DK: $3.6k, FD: $4.4k | vs. SAC | GPP Preferred
Centers to Consider 🏀
C Domantas Sabonis, SAC | DK: $10.1k, FD: $9.9k | @ IND | Cash & GPP
Joel Embiid is questionable to suit up tonight and even if he does play, his ceiling could be limited due to considerable blowout implications (PHI -10). So that pushes Domantas Sabonis to the forefront at the center position in terms of potential upside tonight. He’s coming off of a monster 34-point performance against the Spurs on Wednesday night where he came away with 62.25 DKFP. He’s been a near-lock for a double-double on a nightly basis (25 double-doubles in his last 27 games). There is also a worthy narrative to apply here as Sabonis returns to his old stomping grounds in Indiana for the first time since being traded to the Kings last season. Just like some other Kings players, Sabonis will also stand to benefit from De’Aaron Fox’s absence tonight and the big man is no stranger to flirting with triple-doubles. Over his last 20 games, he has posted 20.5 PPG, 13.5 RPG, and 8.0 APG.
💫C Drew Eubanks, POR | DK: $3.8k, FD: $4.6k | @ WAS | Cash & GPP
Eubanks is pretty much guaranteed to earn the start at center tonight in place of the injured Jusuf Nurkic, which could push him into 30+ minute territory. He has posted a mixed bag of results in six games as a starter this season but he has been productive lately with three games of at least 28.5 DKFP within his last six (all three of those performances came off of the bench). It’s hard to argue against him given his low-end DFS salaries, particularly on DraftKings at $3,800, and Washington has ranked 23rd versus starting centers over their last 20 games.
Other Centers to Consider:
C Joel Embiid, PHI | DK: $11.3k, FD: $11.5k | @ SAS | GPP Preferred (Note: Embiid is currently listed as questionable)
C Mason Plumlee, CHA | DK: $6.7k, FD: $7.1k | @ DET | Cash & GPP
💫C Clint Capela, ATL | DK: $6.1k, FD: $6.9k | @ UTA | DK Preferred
💫C Walker Kessler, UTA | DK: $5.8k, FD: $7.3k | vs. ATL | DK Preferred
C Jalen Duren, DET | DK: $5.4k, FD: $6k | vs. CHA | GPP Preferred
💫PF/C Naz Reid, MIN | DK: $4.8k, FD: $5.6k | vs. ORL | Cash & GPP (Only if R. Gobert is out)
NBA Player Props 📊
Player Prop or Bet | Odds | Unit Bet Size
Fred VanVleet OVER 21.5 Points | -120 (BetMGM) | 2.0 Units
Jaden Ivey OVER 2.5 Turnovers | -125 (BetMGM) | 2.0 Units
PrizePicks Power Play ⚡
Here is a two-pick “Power Play” I’m liking for today's NBA action over on PrizePicks! Nothing is ever a guarantee to hit but I put my own money on these bets so I don't just lightly throw these out there without believing they'll cash! If it hits, it will return 3x the wager.
Fred VanVleet MORE than 21.5 Points
Jaden Ivey MORE than 2.5 Turnovers
🆕 Props Edge+ 🆕
In LineStar’s ongoing mission to improve, innovate, and help you reel in some cash, we are introducing Props Edge+ for NBA – available for LineStar Premium users! This tool can help you find value and mispriced odds on player props from sportsbooks and, more specifically, for PrizePicks and UnderDog Fantasy!
Speaking of props, put the Props Edge+ tool to use by signing up for PrizePicks (Promo code: BETFULLY) or Underdog (Promo code: LINESTAR). You'll receive a 100% match on first deposits up to $100 PLUS a free two-month subscription to LineStar Premium. Many people may not realize that you can legally place prop bets in most states using UnderDog (or PrizePicks) – it’s called Pick'Em, and it’s incredibly easy.
That will wrap us up with today’s “Daily Dribble” edition! Once again, you can find me on Twitter or in LineStar chat @Ryan_Humphries. Good luck everyone!