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Top NBA DFS Plays & Prop Bets 2/7 | We're Discussing More than Just LeBron Breaking "The Record" -- Click Now!
Sit back and get ready to crack open tonight’s Tuesday NBA six-pack! Let’s lock in on some top DFS plays and props to consider for this juicy slate!
Written By: Ryan Humphries on Twitter & LineStar chat @Ryan_Humphries
The NBA Props video will be available around 3 pm ET/noon PT. Click the link above to view LineStar's latest YouTube content!
DFS Main Slate Rundown 📰
A spicy six-game slate makes its way onto the Tuesday docket and we’re officially on #LeBronWatch. LeBron is just 35 points shy of tying Kareem Abdul-Jabbar’s all-time scoring mark of 38,387 career points -- 36 from breaking it. Pending any unforeseen circumstances, the record will be shattered either tonight versus the Thunder or on Thursday against the Bucks.
But there is much more to cover for this Tuesday slate besides the potential record breaking night for LeBron! For DFS purposes, there are some great match-ups on this modest slate and four of the six games currently hold over/unders of at least 235 points. This should be a fun one -- best of luck!
Note: DraftKings has not yet updated the Nets roster following Sunday’s big trade so Spencer Dinwiddie and Dorian Finney-Smith will not be available options there (both players seem to be trending toward making their Nets debut Tuesday night). Also, make sure you don’t somehow roster Kyrie Irving or Markieff Morris by accident as they will obviously not accrue any points.
Update: Scratch that. The Nets announced that neither Dinwiddie or Finney-Smith will debut tonight.
Today’s Key Injuries:
Knicks: RJ Barrett - Questionable, M. Robinson - OUT
Magic: C. Okeke - OUT, Mo Bamba - OUT
Hawks: D. Murray - Questionable
Pelicans: Z. Williamson - OUT, B. Ingram - Probable, J. Valanciunas - Probable, D. Daniels - OUT
Suns: C. Payne - OUT, L. Shamet - OUT (Note: D. Booker will return to the lineup for the first time since Christmas Day but will likely be on some sort of minutes restriction.)
Nets: K. Durant - OUT, B. Simmons - Probable, S. Curry - OUT, TJ Warren - Questionable, Y. Watanabe - OUT (Note: S. Dinwiddie & D. Finney-Smith WON’T make their Nets debuts tonight)
Bulls: D. DeRozan - Questionable, P. Williams - Probable, A. Caruso - Questionable, Jav. Green - OUT
Grizzlies: S. Adams - OUT
Timberwolves: K. Towns - OUT, R. Gobert - Questionable, K. Anderson - Questionable, A. Rivers - OUT, J. McLaughlin - Questionable
Nuggets: N. Jokic - Probable, J. Murray - Questionable, A. Gordon - Probable, K. Caldwell-Pope - Probable, Z. Nnaji - Questionable
Thunder: L. Dort - OUT, A. Pokusevski - OUT, J. Robinson-Earl - Questionable
Lakers: L. James - Questionable, A. Davis - Probable, A. Reaves - Probable
Main Slate Match-Ups w/ Game Totals & Point Spreads
Top DraftKings & FanDuel DFS Plays
Note: NBA position designations are never going to perfectly align between the major DFS sites. For the purposes of these newsletters, positional designations will default to DraftKings.
💫 = Favorite Play
Point Guards/Shooting Guards to Consider 🏀
PG Trae Young, ATL | DK: $9.4k, FD: $9.4k | @ NOP | Cash & GPP
Love him or hate him, from a DFS floor perspective, you can rarely go wrong with Trae Young given his $9,400 salary on both sites. He has secured at least 42.0 DKFP in 22 of his last 24 games dating back to Dec. 9th and there’s always some moderately high 50-60 FP potential. This is a strong game environment to target given its high 237-point total and close spread (ATL +1) with both teams ranking inside the top half of the NBA in offensive pace. Trae Young went off for a 34-point, 10-assists double-double (56.25 DKFP) against the Pels earlier this season and a similar performance is well within the range of outcomes tonight.
Update: Dejounte Murray was a late addition to the injury report and is now questionable to play tonight. If he sits, Trae Young has benefited from a team-high +7.2% usage boost this season and his chances of hitting a ceiling game would go up drastically.
💫SG Brandon Ingram, NOP | DK: $7.1k, FD: $7.8k | vs. ATL | Cash & GPP
We’ll stay in this Hawks/Pelicans match-up and go to the other side of the court with Brandon Ingram. Over his last five games, Ingram has posted a monster 37.94% usage rate while averaging 1.24 FPPM. He has averaged 44.25 FPPG in close games this season which, based on the one-point spread, we could certainly see a tight back-and-forth wire-to-wire battle tonight. The Pelicans have been cautious with Ingram, having sat him in the last couple of back-to-backs, but they don’t play again until Friday so, pending any sort of unforeseen blowout or injury, Ingram should be a strong bet to play around 33-36 minutes tonight. He’s priced more appropriately at $7,800 on FanDuel but he looks like a steal at $7,100 on DraftKings.
💫PG/SG Cam Thomas, BKN | DK: $5.2k, FD: $6.5k | vs. PHX | Cash & GPP
What to do with Cam Thomas tonight? Spencer Dinwiddie and Dorian Finney-Smith are expected to make their Nets debuts tonight but I don’t know how you bench or limit a guy who has erupted for 91 points across his last two games. Thomas may move back to the bench while Dinwiddie starts. However, Dinwiddie also may not play a full allotment of starter’s minutes in his first Nets game. The good news (for Thomas) is that Seth Curry (adductor) remains out tonight so there are backcourt minutes to be had. His $6,500 tag on FanDuel makes him a bit riskier, especially if he doesn’t start, but Thomas should command decent run (~25-28 minutes) one way or another, so he remains firmly in play at $5,200 on DraftKings.
Update: Dinwiddie & Finney-Smith WON’T make their Nets debuts tonight. Looks like it’s another Cam Thomas chalk night. Very risky fade.
Other Guards to Consider:
PG Ja Morant, MEM | DK: $10.3k, FD: $10.4k | vs. CHI | GPP Preferred
💫PG Jalen Brunson, NYK | DK: $8.5k, FD: $7.9k | @ ORL | GPP Preferred
PG Jamal Murray, DEN | DK: $8.2k, FD: $8.3k | vs. MIN | Cash & GPP (Note: Murray was downgraded to questionable midday)
PG/SG Josh Giddey, OKC | DK: $7.9k, FD: $8k | @ LAL | GPP Preferred
💫PG Edmond Sumner, BKN | DK: $4.1k, FD: $5.3k | vs. PHX | Cash & GPP
PG/SG Coby White, CHI | DK: $3.8k, FD: $4.2k | @ MEM | GPP Preferred
SG Gary Harris, ORL | DK: $3.3k, FD: $4.2k | vs. NYK | DK Preferred
Small Forwards/Power Forwards to Consider 🏀
💫SF LeBron James, LAL | DK: $11.2k, FD: $10.3k | vs. OKC | Cash & GPP
LeBron is on the cusp of breaking the all-time NBA career points record so I’m almost obligated to spotlight him today. As mentioned in the intro, LeBron is 35 points shy from tying Kareem Abdul-Jabbar’s record of 38,387 points and he’ll become the new record owner either tonight or Thursday. James has scored at least 35 points in 11 of 43 games played this season so, while there is a decent chance it happens tonight, my money would be on LeBron surpassing Kareem on Thursday against the Bucks. LeBron is a big narrative guy so I envision he would prefer to break the record against another one of the game’s current superstars, Giannis Antetokounmpo. For DFS purposes, LeBron remains firmly in play. Anthony Davis’ return has eaten into his crazy usage numbers but he has still put up multiple 60+ FP performances since AD has re-entered the rotation. The Thunder are also on the second leg of a back-to-back and just gave up 141 points to the Warriors last night. Don’t feel like you *have* to play LeBron in DFS lineups just because of this points record. In fact, he may even be a smart fade if his ownership projects too highly. But if LeBron REALLY wants to drop 35+ points tonight, he probably will.
Note: LeBron is currently listed as “questionable” tonight but, let’s be real, he’s playing.
💫SF/PF De’Andre Hunter, ATL | DK: $5.2k, FD: $5.6k | @ NOP | Cash & GPP
Pending further injury news, the forward positions do feel a bit dicey on this six-game slate. When in doubt, it never hurts to fall back on an affordable player who logs big minutes. De’Andre Hunter fits that profile today as someone who will typically log around 32-38 minutes most nights. He is two games removed from dropping a season-high 26 points against the Jazz on Saturday and he did that without any key Hawks player being sidelined. While he may be a distant third to Trae Young and Dejounte Murray (who is now questionable to play tonight) in relation to the starting Hawks’ usage rates, he generally sits at around a 20% USG% and puts up 12-15 shots per game. Young and Murray make up one of the NBA’s best assist duos so Hunter often receives plenty of quality shot attempts while also avoiding major defensive attention. Hunter has accrued at least 29.25 DKFP in five of his last seven games and he makes plenty of sense as a DFS option out of the $5k range.
Update: Hunter should see a small usage boost if D. Murray (migraine/questionable) doesn't suit up tonight.
💫PF/C Larry Nance Jr., NOP | DK: $5.1k, FD: $5.4k | vs. ATL | Cash & GPP
We’ll go to one of the benches in this Hawks/Pelicans match-up and throw Larry Nance Jr. up on the board. Nance can certainly turn out to be a bust due to his lack of reliable minutes, but he’s been a rock-solid DFS option as of late despite playing only around 22-24 minutes per game. In his last five games off of the bench, he is averaging a double-double (10.2 PPG, 10.4 RPG) and 1.16 FPPM. The Hawks have three solid bigs in Clint Capela, John Collins, and Onyeka Okongwu so the Pelicans, who continue to be without Zion Williamson, could use Nance’s size out there on the court tonight. Nance logged an above-average 27 minutes against the Hawks earlier this season and that was with a healthy Zion available. He is one of those guys that can drive DFS players mad but, at his current salaries, Nance has shown the ability to exceed well beyond 6x value within 20-24 minutes of time on the court.
Other Forwards to Consider:
PF/C Julius Randle, NYK | DK: $10.2k, FD: $9.1k | @ ORL | FD Preferred
💫SF/SG Zach LaVine, CHI | DK: $8.3k, FD: $7.7k | @ MEM | GPP Preferred (Boost if DeRozan is out)
PF/C Jaren Jackson Jr., MEM | DK: $7.3k, FD: $7.8k | vs. CHI | GPP Preferred
SF/SG Mikal Bridges, PHX | DK; $7k, FD: $7.5k | @ BKN | GPP Preferred
SF RJ Barrett, NYK | DK: $6.3k, FD: $6.6k | @ ORL | GPP Preferred (Note: Barrett is currently questionable)
SF/PF Taurean Prince, MIN | DK: $3.5k, FD: $4k | @ DEN | GPP Preferred (If K. Anderson is out)
PF/C Dario Saric, PHX | DK: $3.4k, FD: $4.9k | @ BKN | DK Preferred
SF/PF Jonathan Isaac, ORL | DK: $3.1k, FD: $4.4k | vs. NYK | DK Preferred
Centers to Consider 🏀
💫C Nikola Jokic, DEN | DK: $11.6k, FD: $11.6k | vs. MIN | Cash & GPP
You can rarely go wrong with spending up on The Joker, particularly when he’s on his home court. I’m not sure if it has to do with Jokic being more acclimated to the high Denver elevation while the visiting big men struggle or what, but he’s almost always dropping 60+ FP games at home and he averages nearly +20% more FPPG than on the road. Regardless of home/away games, Jokic has dropped a triple-double in seven of his last eight starts and he comes in on three days rest after sitting out Sunday’s back-to-back. I like his chances at a ceiling game a bit more if Rudy Gobert (groin/questionable) sits out again for Minnesota -- Jokic dropped 31/11/13 (69.25 DKFP) against the T-Wolves back on Jan. 18th when Gobert was out. But, regardless of Gobert’s status, Jokic should continue his dominant stretch of basketball in what will be a significant pace-up spot (DEN: 20th in pace, MIN: 6th in pace).
Note: Jokic is listed as "probable" tonight.
💫C Andre Drummond, CHI | DK: $3.1k, FD: $4.4k | @ MEM | GPP Preferred
There have been multiple stretches this season where Andre Drummond has played little-to-no minutes but if there’s one thing we know about him, it’s that he can rack up crazy stats in a short amount of time. He has averaged 1.36 FPPM on the season and a ridiculous 1.93 FPPM over his last five games. If you played him last night, congrats, because Drummond exploded for 21 points, 15 rebounds, three steals, a block, and an assist (49.25 DKFP) in 21 minutes off of the bench. Three games ago, he put up 29.75 DKFP in just 15 minutes. If we knew for sure that Drummond would receive 15 minutes tonight, he’d be a great value target at just $100 above the minimum on DraftKings. The Bulls are on the second leg of a back-to-back but most of their starters, including C Nikola Vucevic (24 min.) played limited minutes in a 24-point blowout victory over the Spurs last night. But perhaps his massive game against the Spurs will lock him into those 15-ish minutes tonight… at least that would be the hope. Drummond will be worth a dart throw in GPPs (primarily on DraftKings) but if you're in need of a "safer" cheap center play, the nod should go to Grizzlies' center Xavier Tillman ($4.6k/$5.3k).
Other Centers to Consider:
C Anthony Davis, LAL | DK: $10.5k, FD: $10.8k | vs. OKC | GPP Preferred
💫C Nicolas Claxton, BKN | DK: $7.7k, FD: $8.4k | vs. PHX | GPP Preferred
C Clint Capela, ATL | DK: $6.2k, FD: $6.8k | @ NOP | DK Preferred
PF/C Naz Reid, MIN | DK: $4.7k, FD: $5.1k | @ DEN | GPP Preferred (Only playable if he’s starting/Gobert is out)
💫C Xavier Tillman, MEM | DK: $4.6k, FD: $5.3k | vs. CHI | Cash & GPP
C Isaiah Hartenstein, NYK | DK: $4.4k, FD: $5k | @ ORL | GPP Preferred
C Jaylin Williams, OKC | DK: $3.1k, FD: $4.2k | @ LAL | DK Preferred
NBA Player Props 📊
Player Prop or Bet | Odds | Unit Bet Size
Wendell Carter Jr. OVER 8.5 Rebounds | -125 (PointsBet) | 2.0 Units
Larry Nance Jr. OVER 7.5 Points | -130 (DraftKings) | 2.0 Units
PrizePicks Power Play ⚡
Here is a two-pick “Power Play” I’m liking for today's NBA action over on PrizePicks! Nothing is ever a guarantee to hit but I put my own money on these bets so I don't just lightly throw these out there without believing they'll cash! If it hits, it will return 3x the wager.
Cole Anthony MORE than 19.5 Fantasy Score
Larry Nance Jr. MORE than 7.5 Points
And don't forget about the "Taco Tuesday" promo. The discounted Jalen Brunson prop below will be available until 3:30 ET and two more "taco props" will be posted later in the day.
🆕 Props Edge+ 🆕
In LineStar’s ongoing mission to improve, innovate, and help you reel in some cash, we are introducing Props Edge+ for NBA – available for LineStar Premium users! This tool can help you find value and mispriced odds on player props from sportsbooks and, more specifically, for PrizePicks and UnderDog Fantasy!
Speaking of props, put the Props Edge+ tool to use by signing up for PrizePicks (Promo code: BETFULLY) or Underdog (Promo code: LINESTAR). You'll receive a 100% match on first deposits up to $100 PLUS a free two-month subscription to LineStar Premium. Many people may not realize that you can legally place prop bets in most states using UnderDog (or PrizePicks) – it’s called Pick'Em, and it’s incredibly easy.
That will wrap us up with today’s “Daily Dribble” edition! Once again, you can find me on Twitter or in LineStar chat @Ryan_Humphries. Good luck everyone!