• LineStar® Daily Dribble
  • Posts
  • Top NBA DFS Plays & Prop Bets 2/8 | Dissecting the Final Slate Ahead of the Trade Deadline!

Top NBA DFS Plays & Prop Bets 2/8 | Dissecting the Final Slate Ahead of the Trade Deadline!

Wednesday provides a loaded nine-game NBA slate! Let’s lock in on some top DFS plays and props to target this evening!

Written By: Ryan Humphries on Twitter & LineStar chat @Ryan_Humphries

DFS Main Slate Rundown 📰

We’ve got a big boy NBA slate on tap today with nine games hitting the docket. There will be no shortage of ways we can attack this one but I believe one of the keys to this slate will be avoiding the blowouts. That’s always a goal on any slate but today feels extra… blowout-ish? Five of the nine games on the slate feature a spread of seven points or wider. Of course, some of those games will inevitably play much closer than the spread would indicate, while other games with more narrow spreads will trend toward blowout territory. Let’s see what we can cook up today -- best of luck!

Note: This is the final slate of games before tomorrow’s 3 pm ET trade deadline hits. There are quite a few guys playing tonight who have some trade buzz surrounding them. That may or may not impact their minutes or outright availability tonight. Be sure to keep an eye out for some surprise scratches and be prepared to adjust!

Today’s Key Injuries:

Pistons: M. Bagley III - OUT

Cavaliers: D. Mitchell - Questionable, D. Garland - Questionable

Hornets: K. Oubre Jr. - OUT, C. Martin - OUT

Wizards: K. Kuzma - Questionable, B. Beal - Questionable, M. Morris - Questionable

76ers: J. Embiid - Questionable

Celtics: M. Smart - OUT, R. Williams - Questionable, A. Horford - Questionable

Pacers: C. Duarte - Questionable

Heat: V. Oladipo - OUT, K. Lowry - OUT, G. Vincent - Probable, D. Dedmon - OUT, D. Robinson - OUT, O. Robinson - Probable, N. Jovic - OUT

Spurs: K. Johnson - Questionable, D. Vassell - OUT, T. Jones - OUT, J. Sochan - OUT, C. Bassey - Questionable, R. Langford - OUT

Raptors: OG Anunoby - OUT

Kings: None

Rockets: K. Porter Jr. - OUT, G. Mathews - Questionable

Timberwolves: K. Towns - OUT, R. Gobert - Questionable, K. Anderson - Questionable, A. Rivers - OUT

Jazz: J. Vanderbilt - Questionable

Mavericks: L. Doncic - OUT, K. Irving - Questionable (Expected to be available for his Mavs debut), M. Morris - Questionable (Expected to be available for his Mavs debut), M. Kleber - OUT, F. Ntilikina - Questionable, D. Bertans - OUT

Clippers: J. Wall - OUT

Warriors: S. Curry - OUT

Trailblazers: J. Nurkic - OUT, D. Eubanks - Probable, K. Johnson - Questionable, J. Winslow - OUT

Main Slate Match-Ups w/ Game Totals & Point Spreads

Top DraftKings & FanDuel DFS Plays

Note: NBA position designations are never going to perfectly align between the major DFS sites. For the purposes of these newsletters, positional designations will default to DraftKings.

💫 = Favorite Play

Point Guards/Shooting Guards to Consider 🏀

💫PG/SG Tyler Herro, MIA | DK: $7.5k, FD: $7.3k | vs. IND | Cash & GPP

Herro has not consistently produced over the last few weeks but he’ll step into an increased role with the Heat dealing with backcourt injuries. Kyle Lowry and Victor Oladipo are both out tonight which leaves Miami with very little guard depth available. Lowry is missing his second consecutive game, Oladipo his third. In the last two games, Herro has played at least 38 minutes and put up 41.25 DKFP and 47.75 DKFP while working as a primary ball handler. Miami draws a stellar match-up against the Pacers who rank 4th in pace and 19th in defensive efficiency. With everything considered, Herro stands out as a strong play out of the mid-$7k range on both sites.

💫PG/SG Jordan Poole, GSW | DK: $7.1k, FD: $7.6k | @ POR | Cash & GPP

Whenever Steph Curry (leg/out) is sidelined, Jordan Poole always lands firmly on the DFS radar. He has handled a team-high +3.84% usage increase with Curry off the floor this season. Curry was also out of the lineup when the Warriors last played the Trailblazers on Dec. 30th and Poole went on to put up 41 points and 55.25 DKFP in 36 minutes. He’ll bring a strong floor and a 50+ FP ceiling to this match-up again tonight. Portland has ranked 25th against starting PGs over their last 20 games and this match-up features a lofty total (235 O/U) and a close spread (GSW +2.5).

SG/SF Eric Gordon, HOU | DK: $5.4k, FD: $5.7k | vs. SAC | Cash & GPP

Gordon is one of the players on this slate that has some trade buzz circling him and the DraftKings Sportsbook has him listed as a -200 favorite to be traded ahead of tomorrow’s deadline. As long as he isn’t dealt before tonight’s 8:00 ET tip-off and remains in the starting lineup, he’s worth a look in DFS lineups. Jalen Green recently returned from a three-game absence but PG Kevin Porter Jr. remains sidelined. With KPJ off the court, Gordon has picked up a team-high +5.15% usage boost and averages +9.6 FPPG (per 48 minutes). When these two teams played two days ago, they combined for a whopping 260 points. To no surprise, this game features a slate-high 239 over/under and Gordon is a pretty solid bet to play 32-35 minutes. He has averaged 1.03 FPPM over his last five starts so he has a great chance to return value at his current salaries.

Other Guards to Consider:

PG Damian Lillard, POR | DK: $10.7k, FD: $10k | vs. GSW | GPP Preferred

💫PG LaMelo Ball, DAL | DK: $10.1k, FD: $9.9k | @ WAS | GPP Preferred

💫PG Fred VanVleet, TOR | DK: $9.1k, FD: $8.9k | vs. SAS | Cash & GPP

PG/SG Jalen Green, HOU | DK: $6.8k, FD: $6.9k | vs. SAC | GPP Preferred

💫PG/SG Malaki Branham, SAS | DK: $5k, FD: $5.3k | @ TOR | Cash & GPP

SG Caris LeVert, CLE | DK: $4.8k, FD: $5.1k | vs. DET | GPP Preferred (Monitor Mitchell/Garland availability)

PG Ricky Rubio, CLE | DK: $4k, FD: $4.7k | vs. DET | DK Preferred

Small Forwards/Power Forwards to Consider 🏀

PF/C Kristaps Porzingis, WAS | DK: $9.6k, FD: $9k | vs. CHA | GPP Preferred

Most of the pricey forwards on this slate are tough sells and Porzingis has certainly been a very “up and down” player, as far as DFS results go. He did put up a dud against a tough Cavs defense in his last game, but he strung three performances together prior to that game where he put up 50.75+ DKFP. Playing bigs against the Hornets routinely works out quite well and Porzingis may receive a notable usage bump pending further Wizards injury news. Kyle Kuzma, Bradley Beal, and Monte Morris are all currently listed as questionable to play in tonight’s game. If one or two of those guys, specifically Kuzma and Beal, sit out, that would increase the probability that we get a “50 burger” out of KP this evening. There is some decent risk, but Porzingis remains a strong GPP target who should carry sub-10% ownership.

💫SF/SG Gary Trent Jr., TOR | DK: $6.1k, FD: $6k | vs. SAS | Cash & GPP

The Raptors are believed to be sellers ahead of the trade deadline and guys like Fred VanVleet, OG Anunoby, Pascal Siakam, and Gary Trent Jr. are all candidates to be dealt. Anunoby is already ruled out for tonight’s game with a wrist injury but it would not be a surprise for other players to sit out tonight. That includes Trent, but if he plays, he sticks out as a strong DFS play given his $6.1k/$6k salaries. He had a performance to forget against the Grizzlies on Sunday but, prior to that stinker, Trent was routinely hitting solid value and putting up 30-40 DKFP scores. He is locked into huge minutes on a nightly basis and draws a fantastic match-up against the Spurs who rank dead last in defensive efficiency and have allowed 126.3 PPG over their last 20 games.

💫PF Chris Boucher, TOR | DK: $4.4k, FD: $5.4k | vs. SAS | DK (Cash/GPP) - FD (GPP)

Boucher is another Raptor that deserves some DFS attention today. Again, be on the lookout for some surprise scratches for Toronto tonight, but even if they roll out their normal rotation, Boucher looks solid from a DraftKings perspective -- more of a GPP play on FanDuel. The Raptors do not utilize their bench very much but Boucher has been the exception. He is averaging 22.3 Min/Gm off the bench over his last five games and he has always been a strong FPPM producer (1.13 FPPM L5Gms). The Spurs rank 29th against reserves over their last 20 games and Boucher went off for 37.0 DKFP against them earlier this season while playing 25 minutes off the bench. Boucher may also pick up some extra late-game run in the event of a blowout -- something that is very possible given the wide TOR -11 spread.

Other Forwards to Consider:

SF/SG Paul George, LAC | DK: $9.2k, FD: $8.4k | @ DAL | FD Preferred

💫PF Jimmy Butler, MIA | DK: $8.1k, FD: $8.8k | vs. IND | DK Preferred

PF/C Evan Mobley, CLE | DK: $7.2k, FD: $7.9k | vs. DET | GPP Preferred

💫PF/C Draymond Green, GSW | DK: $6.5k, FD: $7.5k | @ POR | DK Preferred

💫SF Josh Hart, POR | DK: $5.8k, FD: $5.8k | vs. GSW | Cash & GPP

💫SF/PF Kenyon Martin Jr., HOU | DK: $5.5k, FD: $5.8k | vs. SAC | Cash & GPP

PF Jarred Vanderbilt, UTA | DK: $4k, FD: $4.8k | vs. MIN | GPP Preferred

Centers to Consider 🏀

💫C Jarrett Allen, CLE | DK: $6.9k, FD: $7.4k | vs. DET | Cash & GPP

There is some blowout potential here (CLE -11) but if Jarrett Allen ends up playing his usual mid-30s minutes, he could pop off with a huge stat line. The Pistons rank 29th in defensive efficiency and have surrendered the 2nd most points in the paint per game this season (55.1). Allen would also benefit greatly if both Donovan Mitchell (groin/questionable) and Darius Garland (thumb/questionable) sat out. When those two guys have been off the court, Allen has picked up a massive +11.41% usage boost. Allen can provide a strong floor even if he sees limited run in the fourth quarter but, if this game stays remotely competitive, that would unlock some realistic 7x+ upside.

C Daniel Gafford, WAS | DK: $5.4k, FD: $6k | vs. CHA | Cash & GPP

This is a huge slate but there aren’t very many standout center plays at the moment. If you don’t want to break the bank at the positive but still want a decent floor/upside combo, Daniel Gafford may be your man. He is averaging 1.11 FPPM over his last five games while playing 28.5 Min/Gm. Gafford may pick up some additional usage if any combination of Kuzma, Beal, or Monte Morris (all questionable tonight) ends up sitting out. Targeting centers versus the Hornets has been a trend all season. They haven’t been absolutely steamrolled as much recently, but the last five centers that the Hornets have faced have posted DKFP totals of 41.5 (W. Carter Jr.), 35.35 (J. Duren), 45.0 (N. Vucevic), 33.75 (B. Lopez), and 36.0 (B. Adebayo). Gafford is a “fine” play as of now. He could be a “great” play pending further Washington injury news.

Other Centers to Consider:

C Bam Adebayo, MIA | DK: $8.9k, FD: $8.7k | vs. IND | GPP Preferred

C Precious Achiuwa, TOR | DK: $5.8k, FD: $6.3k | vs. SAS | GPP Preferred

C Walker Kessler, UTA | DK: $5.7k, FD: $7.2k | vs. MIN | DK Preferred

PF/C Isaiah Stewart, DET | DK: $5.1k, FD: $5.3k | @ CLE | GPP Preferred

PF/C Naz Reid, MIN | DK: $4.7k, FD: $5.5k | @ UTA | GPP Preferred (If R. Gobert is out)

NBA Player Props 📊

Player Prop or Bet | Odds | Unit Bet Size

Kenyon Martin Jr. OVER 8.5 Rebounds + Assists | -120 (DraftKings) | 2.0 Units

Draymond Green OVER 14.5 Rebounds + Assists | -106 (Caesars) | 2.0 Units

PrizePicks Power Play ⚡

Here is a two-pick “Power Play” I’m liking for today's NBA action over on PrizePicks! Nothing is ever a guarantee to hit but I put my own money on these bets so I don't just lightly throw these out there without believing they'll cash! If it hits, it will return 3x the wager.

Malcolm Brogdon MORE than 1.5 Three-Pointers Made

KJ (Kenyon) Martin Jr. MORE than 25.5 Fantasy Score

🆕 Props Edge+ 🆕

In LineStar’s ongoing mission to improve, innovate, and help you reel in some cash, we are introducing Props Edge+ for NBA – available for LineStar Premium users! This tool can help you find value and mispriced odds on player props from sportsbooks and, more specifically, for PrizePicks and UnderDog Fantasy!

Speaking of props, put the Props Edge+ tool to use by signing up for PrizePicks (Promo code: BETFULLY) or Underdog (Promo code: LINESTAR). You'll receive a 100% match on first deposits up to $100 PLUS a free two-month subscription to LineStar Premium. Many people may not realize that you can legally place prop bets in most states using UnderDog (or PrizePicks) – it’s called Pick'Em, and it’s incredibly easy.

That will wrap us up with today’s “Daily Dribble” edition! Once again, you can find me on Twitter or in LineStar chat @Ryan_Humphries. Good luck everyone!