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Top NBA DFS Plays & Prop Bets 2/9 | Processing the Impacts of a Busy Trade Deadline
The dust from the trade deadline madness begins to settle and we’ll have a small four-game slate to delve into tonight. Let’s go out and locate some top DFS plays and props to target this evening!
Written By: Ryan Humphries on Twitter & LineStar chat @Ryan_Humphries
DFS Main Slate Rundown 📰
A hectic trade deadline has come and gone and since Jan. 23rd, 28 of 30 teams in the NBA have been involved in at least one trade -- only the Bulls and Cavaliers sat out on the trade action. The NBA landscape now looks quite different from how it did just a couple of weeks ago and I’m anxious to see how all of these newly acquired players fit in with their new teams. Fortunately, today’s NBA slate is a small one with just four games on the board -- any more games than that and it would be an absolute mess trying to assess all of the shorthanded teams and how that would impact minutes and usage tonight.
Note: I got a bit of a late jump on today’s NBA newsletter while waiting on the deadline to near a close, so player spotlights will be a bit more abbreviated. Let’s see what we can cook up tonight! Best of luck!
To see a rundown of all recent trades, check here.
Today’s Key Injuries/Traded Players:
Nuggets: J. Murray - OUT, B. Hyland - TRADED, Z. Nnaji - Doubtful, D. Reed - TRADED
Magic: G. Harris - OUT, M. Bamba - TRADED
Suns: D. Booker - OUT, M. Bridges - TRADED, C. Payne - OUT, C. Johnson - TRADED, L. Shamet - OUT, D. Saric - TRADED
Hawks: F. Kaminsky - TRADED, J. Holiday - TRADED
Bulls: D. DeRozan - Questionable, P. Williams - Probable, A. Caruso - Probable, Jav. Green - OUT
Nets: K. Durant - TRADED, S. Curry - OUT, TJ Warren - TRADED, D. Sharpe - Questionable, Y. Watanabe - Questionable, Note: S. Dinwiddie & D. Finney-Smith will make their Nets debuts today
Bucks: G. Antetokounmpo - Probable, B. Portis - OUT, B. Lopez - Probable, J. Ingles - OUT, G. Hill - TRADED, J. Nwora - TRADED, S. Ibaka - TRADED
Lakers: L. James - OUT, A. Davis - Probable, R. Westbrook - TRADED, P. Beverly - TRADED, T. Bryant - TRADED, J. Toscano-Anderson - TRADED, D. Jones - TRADED
Main Slate Match-Ups w/ Game Totals & Point Spreads
Top DraftKings & FanDuel DFS Plays
Note: NBA position designations are never going to perfectly align between the major DFS sites. For the purposes of these newsletters, positional designations will default to DraftKings.
💫 = Favorite Play
Point Guards/Shooting Guards to Consider 🏀
💫PG Chris Paul, PHX | DK: $7.3k, FD: $8.1k | @ ATL | Cash & GPP
The Suns will be extremely shorthanded today with D. Booker, M. Bridges, C. Payne, C. Johnson, L. Shamet, and D. Saric all either out with an injury or unavailable due to being traded. So we’ll turn toward the Suns’ veteran point guard with confidence today. Paul had one of his worst performances of the season when these two teams met last Wednesday when he put up just 11.0 DKFP in what devolved into a 32-point blowout loss. However, he’ll have no choice but to do it all tonight, alongside center Deandre Ayton. It’s only a 28.6-minute sample size, but when the six players listed above have been off the court this season, Paul has handled a +8.23% usage increase while averaging +13.68 FP (per 48 minutes).
SG Cam Thomas, BKN | DK: $7.8k, FD: $7.3k | vs. CHI | GPP Preferred
We’re almost obligated to keep Cam Thomas on the DFS radar tonight. He has been scoring out of his mind over the last three games, averaging 44.7 PPG and 57.8 FPPG during that stretch. Of course, the big concern today will revolve around Spencer Dinwiddie making his Nets debut and we also have to account for Thomas’ steep DFS price hikes as well. There is also no guarantee that he’ll start, although it seems likely given how well he’s been shooting. Perhaps consider him more of a GPP play instead of a certified cash game lock. This Nets offense was able to support two stud players when Kyrie Irving and Kevin Durant were doing their thing and it’s possible that Dinwiddie may not step into a full workload right away. We’ll need around 40-45 FP for value out of Thomas but that is a mark he can hit assuming he handles mid-30s starter’s minutes.
💫PG/SG Damion Lee, PHX | DK: $3.2k, FD: $3.9k | @ ATL | Cash & GPP
Lee is priced just above the minimum on both sites and he’s a likely candidate to slide into the Suns’ starting rotation tonight. He has earned a handful of starts this season and has played as many as 38 minutes as a starter. I have him projected for 30 minutes in tonight’s game, but that may be on the slightly modest side of expectations. Either way, he is a player who has averaged a fairly respectable 0.75 FPPM this season so any amount of minutes in the 25 range and beyond should lead to quality value.
Other Guards to Consider:
💫PG Trae Young, ATL | DK: $9.1k, FD: $9.4k | vs. PHX | Cash & GPP
PG Spencer Dinwiddie, BKN | DK: $8.1k, FD: $7.9k | vs. CHI | GPP Preferred
PG Markelle Fultz, ORL | DK: $5.7k, FD: $6.5k | vs. DEN | GPP Preferred
💫PG Dennis Schroder, LAL | DK: $5k, FD: $5.6k | vs. MIL | Cash & GPP
PG/SF Bruce Brown, DEN | DK: $4.9k, FD: $5.7k | @ ORL | DK Preferred
PG Saben Lee, PHX | DK: $3.1k, FD: $4.2k | @ ATL | GPP Preferred
Small Forwards/Power Forwards to Consider 🏀
💫PF/C Giannis Antetokounmpo, MIL | DK: $12.3k, FD: $12.5k | @ LAL | Cash & GPP
We have plenty of value plays to choose from on this small slate so locking in a stud like Giannis (knee/probable) won’t be much of a challenge. Giannis is coming off of a pretty quiet game against Portland where he put up “only” 50.75 DKFP… but he also played just 23 minutes as a result of foul trouble and blowout factor (Bucks won by 19). Even without hitting value in that last game, he’s averaging a ridiculous 69.4 DKFP over his last six games while accounting for a mammoth 43.1% usage rate. There is some blowout concern tonight (MIL -7.5) against the LeBron-less Lakers who were also very active ahead of the trade deadline and may only have eight or nine players available. Regardless, Giannis carries a massive floor even in blowouts, and he could go for 70+ FP again should he play his usual minutes.
PF/C Rui Hachimura, LAL | DK: $4.8k, FD: $5.2k | vs. MIL | Cash & GPP
Hachimura has been with his new team for a little over two weeks now and he has been in the starting lineup for the last five games. As mentioned above, the Lakers may only have eight or nine bodies available tonight so we could see Hachimura step in and operate in a key role alongside Anthony Davis. Starting PFs have averaged 31.8 FPPG against the Bucks over their last 20 games and 6x potential feels like a solid target for Hachimura in this game, assuming he plays 30+ minutes.
💫SF/PF Torrey Craig, PHX | DK: $4.1k, FD: $4.5k | @ ATL | Cash & GPP
We can look to save some salary with another Suns player here in Torrey Craig. He hasn’t been an exciting player to roster but he should have moderate involvement in the offense, given how shorthanded Phoenix will be tonight. Craig has averaged 0.80 FPPM this season and projects for 30-35 minutes this evening. He has drained an impressive 43.5% of his three-pointers on the road and the Hawks have ranked dead last versus PFs in their last 20 games. Craig secured 23.5 DKFP against the Hawks last Wednesday while playing only 23 minutes. Given his increased minutes projection tonight, a similar fantasy score feels like his floor tonight.
Other Forwards to Consider:
SF Michael Porter Jr., DEN | DK: $6.2k, FD: $6.8k | @ ORL | GPP Preferred
SF/SG Bogdan Bogdanovic, ATL | DK: $5.4k, FD: $6.1k | vs. PHX | Cash & GPP
SF/PF De’Andre Hunter, ATL | DK: $4.9k, FD: $5.6k | vs. PHX | GPP Preferred
💫SF/SG Lonnie Walker IV, LAL | DK: $3.1k, FD: $4.3k | vs. MIL | DK Preferred
PF Ish Wainwright, PHX | DK: $3k, FD: $3.7k | @ ATL | GPP Preferred (If he’s starting)
Centers to Consider 🏀
C Anthony Davis, LAL | DK: $10.2k, FD: $10.9k | vs. MIL | GPP Preferred
Despite the small slate size, there are plenty of stellar center options available. The obvious spend-up would be Nikola Jokic ($11k/$11.7k) who is just putting up triple-doubles on a near-nightly basis. However, Anthony Davis (foot/probable) feels like a strong pivot off of Jokic. His expected ownership will rise with LeBron James being ruled out this evening but you have to figure that most people will scrounge together the extra $800 to pay up for Jokic. Davis played extremely passive on Tuesday while LeBron took down the all-time career points record but in the two games prior, he put up 63.5 DKFP (@ NOP) and 58.0 DKFP (@ IND). He’ll be the focal point of the Lakers' offense tonight and when LeBron and Russell Westbrook have been off the court this season, Davis has averaged +10.51 PPG (per 48-minutes) and +12.52 FP (per 48-minutes).
C Onyeka Okongwu, ATL | DK: $3.9k, FD: $5k | vs. PHX | DK Preferred
On DraftKings, it feels like one of those slates where you may want to lock in two stud centers into your lineup (Jokic & Ayton being the preferred combo) but when hunting for a value center, Okongwu makes plenty of sense given his $3,900 DK price tag. Okongwu has been a nice source of value off of the Hawks bench. Over his last five games, he is averaging 24.85 FPPG and 1.24 FPPM. He posted 27.5 DKFP against Phoenix last Wednesday, despite playing only 20 minutes. Okongwu should be a safe bet to play his usual 20-22 minutes but he may see a bit more run if this game trends toward a blowout against the shorthanded Suns.
Other Centers to Consider:
💫C Nikola Jokic, DEN | DK: $11k, FD: $11.7k | @ ORL | Cash & GPP
💫C Nikola Vucevic, CHI | DK: $9k, FD: $9k | @ BKN | Cash & GPP
💫C Deandre Ayton, PHX | DK: $7.9k, FD: $8.6k | @ ATL | Cash & GPP
C Nicolas Claxton, BKN | DK: $7.6k, FD: $8.4k | vs. CHI | GPP Preferred
C Andre Drummond, CHI | DK: $3.3k, FD: $4.4k | @ BKN | DK Preferred
PF/C Wenyen Gabriel, LAL | DK: $3k, FD: $3.9k | vs. MIL | GPP Preferred
NBA Player Props 📊
Player Prop or Bet | Odds | Unit Bet Size
Nikola Jokic OVER 22.5 Rebounds + Assists | -105 (DraftKings) | 2.0 Units
Patrick Williams OVER 5.5 Rebounds + Assists | -137 (Caesars) | 2.25 Units
PrizePicks Power Play ⚡
Here is a two-pick “Power Play” I’m liking for today's NBA action over on PrizePicks! Nothing is ever a guarantee to hit but I put my own money on these bets so I don't just lightly throw these out there without believing they'll cash! If it hits, it will return 3x the wager.
Nicola Claxton MORE than 12.5 REBS + ASTS
Trae Young MORE than 9.5 ASTS
🆕 Props Edge+ 🆕
In LineStar’s ongoing mission to improve, innovate, and help you reel in some cash, we are introducing Props Edge+ for NBA – available for LineStar Premium users! This tool can help you find value and mispriced odds on player props from sportsbooks and, more specifically, for PrizePicks and UnderDog Fantasy!
Speaking of props, put the Props Edge+ tool to use by signing up for PrizePicks (Promo code: BETFULLY) or Underdog (Promo code: LINESTAR). You'll receive a 100% match on first deposits up to $100 PLUS a free two-month subscription to LineStar Premium. Many people may not realize that you can legally place prop bets in most states using UnderDog (or PrizePicks) – it’s called Pick'Em, and it’s incredibly easy.
That will wrap us up with today’s “Daily Dribble” edition! Once again, you can find me on Twitter or in LineStar chat @Ryan_Humphries. Good luck everyone!