Written By: Ryan Humphries on Twitter & LineStar chat @Ryan_Humphries

Straight Locks🔒 | NBA Props w/ Shannon & Tyler!

DFS Main Slate Rundown 📰

We enter into the final full month of NBA regular season action with a midweek nine-game slate! Vegas expected a lower scoring slate tonight, with just two games holding over/unders of 230+ points. By comparison, 9-of-10 games on yesterday’s slate held a 230+ over/under. We’ll see what kind of weight that ultimately bears on DFS scoring but, for now, let’s just do our best to hunt down some premium DFS picks and prop bets. Best of luck!

Today’s Key Injuries:

Suns: L. Shamet - OUT, T. Ross - OUT (Note: Kevin Durant is expected to make his Suns debut today)

Hornets: L. Ball - OUT (done for the season), PJ Washington - Doubtful

Bulls: P. Williams - Probable, G. Dragic - OUT (waived by the team)

Pistons: B. Bogdanovic - Probable, I. Stewart - OUT, J. Duren - OUT, I. Livers - OUT

Cavaliers: None

Celtics: M. Muscala - Questionable

76ers: J. Embiid - Questionable, D. Dedmon - OUT

Heat: K. Love - Probable, M. Strus - Probable, K. Lowry - OUT

Nets: B. Simmons - OUT, E. Sumner - OUT, Y. Watanabe - Questionable

Knicks: None

Lakers: L. James - OUT, A. Davis - OUT, D. Russell - OUT

Thunder: S. Gilgeous-Alexander - OUT, A. Pokusevski - OUT, K. Williams - OUT

Magic: J. Isaac - OUT

Bucks: K. Middleton - OUT, W. Matthews - OUT

Grizzlies: S. Adams - OUT, J. LaRavia - Questionable

Rockets: K. Porter Jr. - Questionable, J. Tate - Questionable

Pelicans: Z. Williamson - OUT, J. Valanciunas - Questionable, J. Richardson - Questionable, L. Nance Jr. - OUT, J. Alvarado - OUT

Trailblazers: A. Simons - Questionable, J. Nurkic - OUT, J. Winslow - OUT, R. Arcidiacono - OUT

Main Slate Match-Ups w/ Game Totals & Point Spreads

Top DraftKings & FanDuel DFS Plays

Note: NBA position designations are never going to perfectly align between the major DFS sites. For the purposes of these newsletters, positional designations will default to DraftKings.

💫 = Favorite Play

Point Guards/Shooting Guards to Consider 🏀

💫PG Ja Morant, MEM | DK: $9.9k, FD: $10k | @ HOU | Cash & GPP

There are several value options at the guard positions today with quite a few players looking to step into larger roles due to injuries but, overall, this slate feels a bit dicey for PG/SGs. It feels a tad point chase-y following his 39-point triple-double last night, but Ja Morant draws an incredible match-up and feels like the most favorable guard to target if we’re spending up. Morant is racking up 1.52 FPPM over his last 20 games and he went off against the Rockets earlier this season when he dropped 49 points and 73.0 DKFP on Oct. 21st. There is some blowout risk to factor in but star players often destroy this Rockets defense, which ranks 29th in efficiency and 29th versus opposing PGs over their last 20 games. The Grizzlies lead the slate with a 120.5 implied point total so we can expect another high-scoring performance out of Ja tonight, along with a fair amount of assists.

💫PG/SG Terry Rozier, CHA | DK: $7.2k, FD: $8.2k | vs. PHX | Cash & GPP

The Hornets suffered a major blow on Monday, losing LaMelo Ball for the remainder of the season due to an ankle fracture. Now, Charlotte has zero postseason aspirations and they could increase their chances in the Victor Wembanyama sweepstakes by implementing a bit of light tanking down the final stretch of the regular season. However, the players on the court don’t concern themselves with such matters so Terry Rozier should look to fill some of the production that LaMelo Ball leaves behind. Rozier has seen a +5.87% usage boost when LaMelo Ball and PJ Washington (foot/doubtful) have been off the court this season. LaMelo most recently missed a three-game stretch in late January. In those three games, Rozier posted DKFP scores of 55.25 (@ ATL), 34.74 DKFP (@ UTA), and 37.5 ( @ PHX). So, one stellar performance and two rather decent performances, relative to his current DFS price tags. He’ll be a relatively safe play today, particularly on DraftKings, and has some moderate 50+ FP upside as well.

SG Malik Beasley, LAL | DK: $4.5k, FD: $5.3k | @ OKC | Cash & GPP

The Lakers will be without their top three players tonight with LeBrom James, Anthony Davis, and D’Angelo Russell all taking a seat. Malik Beasley has only played a handful of games with the Lakers since being traded over from Minnesota, but in a 38-minute sample size with those three players off the court, Beasley has handled a major +11.04% usage boost. He has averaged 0.88 FPPM this season and should be locked into mid-30s minutes tonight in a game that boasts the second-highest combined pace on the slate.

Other Guards to Consider:

PG Damian Lillard, POR | DK: $11.9k, FD: $11k | vs. NOP | GPP Preferred

PG Darius Garland, CLE | DK: $8k, FD: $8.6k | @ BOS | GPP Preferred

PG/SG Jaden Ivey, DET | DK: $5.6k, FD: $6k | vs. CHI | GPP Preferred

💫PG Dennis Schroder, LAL | DK: $5.4k, FD: $5.9k | @ OKC | Cash & GPP

PG Dennis Smith Jr., CHA | DK: $5.1k, FD: $6.1k | vs. PHX | DK Preferred

PG/SG Austin Reaves, LAL | DK: $3.8k, FD: $4.6k | @ OKC | DK Preferred

Small Forwards/Power Forwards to Consider 🏀

💫SF/PF Jalen Williams, OKC | DK: $6.2k, FD: $6.2k | vs. LAL | Cash & GPP

This is just one of those slates, particularly at the forward positions, where you don’t look at any player on the board and think “I HAVE to have him in my lineups.” Most of the high-priced options don’t have a tremendous chance of paying off their DFS salaries so we’ll lead off with a player out of the mid-range. Jalen Williams is coming off a big night against the Kings where he put up 27 points and 49.25 DKFP. He is one of the players who has taken on a large chunk of the offensive usage that Shai Gilgeous-Alexander (32.4% USG%, 9th highest in NBA) is leaving behind in what will be his fourth consecutive game missed due to injury. The Lakers are a strong DFS match-up for Williams, who put up 50.75 DKFP when these teams met three weeks ago. Williams also tends to be a more reliable DFS option when he’s at home where he averaged +13.3% more FPPG.

💫PF/C Jarred Vanderbilt, LAL | DK: $4.9k, FD: $5.9k | @ OKC | Cash & GPP

We’ll stay in this OKC/LAL game and go back to Jarred Vanderbilt, who was a bit of a chalk bomb last night, putting up just 18.0 DKFP in 29 minutes on 1-for-6 shooting. The obvious thing of note here will be the lack of availability for Anthony Davis, who played last night. Davis, of course, joins LeBron James and D’Angelo Russell on the list of Lakers sitting out tonight with injuries. Vanderbilt, who has averaged 1.03 FPPM this season, showed his upside two games ago when he posted a 15-point, 17-rebound double-double in 27 minutes. Assuming he plays around 30 minutes tonight and eats up some of the usage and rebounds that AD, LeBron, and Russell leave behind, he’ll be a strong bet to return value on his $4.9k/$5.9k DFS price tags.

💫SF/PF Tari Eason, HOU | DK: $4.1k, FD: $5.5k | vs. MEM | DK Preferred

Eason was listed as a “DraftKings preferred” option in yesterday’s newsletter and after dropping 37.0 DKFP in 31 minutes with a 17-point, 12-rebound double-double, he’ll gain the same status today given his $4,100 DK salary. The Rockets rotation is fairly unpredictable and difficult to trust, but Eason has played at least 28 minutes in back-to-back games and he brings plenty of per-minute upside to DFS lineups. He’s a GPP-worthy play on FanDuel but, on a slate like this, I’d trust Eason in all formats on DraftKings… especially in a game that could turn into another blowout (HOU +10) with bench players seeing a bit more run late in the game.

Other Forwards to Consider:

PF/C Giannis Antetokounmpo, MIL | DK: $12.3k, FD: $11.8k | vs. ORL | GPP Preferred

SF Jimmy Butler, MIA | DK: $9k, FD: $10.3k | vs. PHI | DK Preferred

💫SF Gordon Hayward, CHA | DK: $6.4k, FD: $6.7k | vs. PHX | Cash & GPP

SF/PF Cameron Johnson, BKN | DK: $5.3k, FD: $5.6k | @ NYK | GPP Preferred

SF Luguentz Dort, OKC | DK: $5.1k, FD: $6k | vs. LAL | GPP Preferred

💫PF/C James Wiseman, DET | DK: $4.8k, FD: $5.8k | vs. CHI | DK Preferred

SF Matisse Thybulle, POR | DK: $3.7k, FD: $4.2k | vs. NOP | GPP Preferred

PF/C Dario Saric, OKC | DK: $3.2k, FD: $4.1k | vs. LAL | DK Preferred

Centers to Consider 🏀

💫C Mitchell Robinson, NYK | DK: $5k, FD: $6.7k | vs. BKN | DK Preferred

Today’s trend of “wow, I really don’t trust many of these guys” continues into the center position. However, at least on DraftKings, that isn’t the case for Mitchell Robinson. Robinson has played at least 28 minutes in his three starts since returning from a 14-game injury absence and he has posted DKFP totals of 35.25, 29.75, and 30.5. He draws a pretty solid match-up against a Nets defense that has struggled to defend quality centers as of late. Seven of the last 10 starting centers that the Nets have faced have scored at least 32.5 DKFP. At a flat $5,000 on DraftKings, Robinson should be a good bet to return 6x value or better.

💫C Marvin Bagley III, DET | DK: $4.9k, FD: $5.6k | vs. CHI | Cash & GPP

Marvin has certainly been in his bag in his two games following an extended 20-game injury absence. Despite playing only 52 combined minutes in these last couple of games, Bagley has racked up 42 total points, 30 total rebounds, and 84.5 DKFP. His 1.63 FPPM pace from those two games is unsustainable but Bagley remains an affordable option for a Pistons team that is short on center depth tonight with Isaiah Stewart and Jalen Duren both sidelined with injuries. As long as he averaged a bit over a fantasy point per minute, he should receive enough run tonight to pay off his modest DFS salaries.

Other Centers to Consider:

C Deandre Ayton, PHX | DK: $8.1k, FD: $9.2k | @ CHA | GPP Preferred

C Brook Lopez, MIL | DK: $6.6k, FD: $7.4k | vs. ORL | GPP Preferred

C Mark Williams, CHA | DK: $6.3k, FD: $6.8k | vs. PHX | GPP Preferred

C Xavier Tillman, MEM | DK: $4.6k, FD: $5.3k | @ HOU | GPP Preferred

C Guillermo Hernangomez, NOP | DK: $3.8k, FD: $4.6k | @ POR | GPP Preferred (Only trustworthy if J. Valanciunas is out)

NBA Player Props 📊

Player Prop or Bet | Odds | Unit Bet Size

Jarred Vanderbilt OVER 10.5 Points | -128 (FanDuel) | 2.0 Units

Gordon Hayward OVER 22.5 Points + Rebounds | -105 (DraftKings) | 2.0 Units

PrizePicks Power Play ⚡

Here is a two-pick “Power Play” I’m liking for today's NBA action over on PrizePicks! Nothing is ever a guarantee to hit but I put my own money on these bets so I don't just lightly throw these out there without believing they'll cash! If it hits, it will return 3x the wager.

Mark Williams MORE than 11.5 Points

Josh Giddey LESS than 34.5 PTS+REBS+ASTS'

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That will wrap us up with today’s “Daily Dribble” edition! Once again, you can find me on Twitter or in LineStar chat @Ryan_Humphries. Good luck everyone!