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Top NBA DFS Plays & Prop Bets 3/15 | Sizing Up Wednesday's Seven-Game Slate!
Written By: Ryan Humphries on Twitter & LineStar chat @Ryan_Humphries
DFS Main Slate Rundown 📰
Seven games land on the menu tonight and we’ll have a little extra time to get our lineups and prop bets sorted out thanks to the 7:30 ET slate start time. Time to lock and load! Best of luck tonight!
Today’s Key Injuries:
Grizzlies: J. Morant - OUT, S. Adams - OUT
Heat: K. Lowry - Questionable, C. Zeller - OUT
76ers: J. McDaniels - OUT
Cavaliers: D. Mitchell - Questionable, J. Allen - OUT, R. Rubio - OUT
Kings: T. Lyles - OUT
Bulls: None
Celtics: R. Williams - OUT, P. Pritchard - OUT
Timberwolves: K. Towns - OUT, R. Gobert - Questionable, N. Reid - Questionable, J. Nowell - Questionable, A. Rivers - Questionable
Lakers: A. Davis - OUT, L. James - OUT, M. Bamba - OUT
Rockets: A. Sengun - Questionable
Mavericks: L. Doncic - OUT, K. Irving - Doubtful, T. Hardaway Jr. - Questionable, C. Wood - Questionable
Spurs: D. Vassell - OUT, Z. Collins - OUT, J. Sochan - OUT, C. Bassey - OUT, M. Branham - Questionable, R. Langford - Questionable
Warriors: A. Wiggins - OUT, J. Kuminga - Probable, A. Iguodala - OUT, T. Jerome - Questionable
Clippers: N. Powell - OUT
Main Slate Match-Ups w/ Game Totals & Point Spreads
Top DraftKings & FanDuel DFS Plays
Note: NBA position designations are never going to perfectly align between the major DFS sites. For the purposes of these newsletters, positional designations will default to DraftKings.
💫 = Favorite Play
Point Guards/Shooting Guards to Consider 🏀
SG/SF Zach LaVine, CHI | DK: $8.6k, FD: $8.5k | vs. SAC | Cash & GPP
Buyer beware: it’s been a bit of a kiss of death nearly every time I’ve given Zach LaVine a newsletter spotlight but without many standout high-end guard plays on this slate, he’s going to command some worthy DFS consideration. He’s been cooking as of late, averaging 35.0 PPG, 21.6 FGA/Gm, 1.29 FPPM, and 48.7 FPPG over his last five starts. The Kings match-up has also been one that we’ve been targeting all season thanks to their fast tempo (9th in pace) and very lackluster defense (25th in def. efficiency). LaVine displayed some massive upside the last time the Bulls took on the Kings back on Dec. 4th when he dropped 41 points and 62.5 DKFP. This game boasts a slate-high 237.0 over/under along with a very narrow one-point spread (CHI +1). It all comes together to make LaVine a tempting spend-up play at shooting guard, and he also owns small forward eligibility on both sites.
💫PG/SG D’Angelo Russell, LAL | DK: $7.7k, FD: $8.2k | @ HOU | Cash & GPP
D’Lo will get a chance to lead the Lakers’ offensive charge now that Anthony Davis has been ruled out with a foot injury and LeBron James remains a week or two away from his return. Since joining the Lakers at the trade deadline, there is not a significant minute sample size for Russell with both LeBron and AD off the floor. However, Russell did post a pair of massive performances this past Friday (49.75 DKFP vs. TOR) and Sunday (54.75 DKFP vs. NYK). He put up 17 and 19 shots in those two games. In tonight’s game, he could realistically put up closer to 25 shots and it’s a stellar match-up. The Rockets have surrendered 121.0 PPG over their last 20 games and they’ve ranked out at 28th versus opposing point guards in that same span. D’Angelo Russell is not necessarily known for his consistency but his upside is arguably higher than any other guard out of this price range today.
💫PG/SG Jaden Hardy, DAL | DK: $5.5k, FD: $6.4k | @ SAS | Cash & GPP
The Mavs are set to play their third consecutive game without Luka Doncic (thigh) and Kyrie Irving’s status is officially “doubtful.” Elsewhere on the Dallas roster, SG/SF Tim Hardaway Jr. And C Christian Wood both check in with questionable tags. Regardless of Hardaway and Woods’s availability tonight, Jaden Hardy should be taking on a major role out of the backcourt. Without their star backcourt duo of Luka and Kyrie available, Hardy has started the previous two games for Dallas. Both of his starts came against the Memphis Grizzlies and he came away with 31.0 DKFP and 47.5 DKFP while playing 37 and 41 minutes, respectively, and hoisting a combined 46 shot attempts. Hardy wasn’t incredibly efficient with those 46 FGA, making just 39.1% of his shots. Fortunately, he draws a dream match-up against the Spurs who continue to rank dead last in defensive efficiency and allow an NBA-high 39.2% opponent three-point percentage. Hardy’s DFS salaries are still extremely palatable, especially on DraftKings where his $5,500 tag makes him a go-to value on tonight’s slate.
Other Guards to Consider:
PG Steph Curry, GSW | DK: $10.5k, FD: $9.8k | @ LAC | GPP Preferred
PG Darius Garland, CLE | DK: $7.6k, FD: $8.9k | vs. PHI | GPP Preferred (Boost if D. Mitchell sits)
PG Kevin Porter Jr., HOU | DK: $7.2k, FD: $7.8k | vs. LAL | GPP Preferred
PG/SG Jalen Green, HOU | DK: $7.1k, FD: $7.2k | vs. LAL | Cash & GPP
SG/SF Kevin Huerter, SAC | DK: $5.4k, FD: $6.2k | @ CHI | GPP Preferred
💫PG Devonte’ Graham, SAS | DK: $5.3k, FD: $5.7k | vs. DAL | Cash & GPP (If he’s starting)
PG/SG Austin Reaves, LAL | DK: $5.1k, FD: $5.7k | @ HOU | GPP Preferred
💫SG Caris LeVert, CLE | DK: $4.9k, FD: $6.1k | vs. PHI | Cash & GPP (If D. Mitchell is out)
PG McKinley Wright IV, DAL | DK: $3.5k, FD: $4k | @ SAS | GPP Preferred (Possible cash play if T. Hardaway Jr. is out)
Small Forwards/Power Forwards to Consider 🏀
💫SF/SG Jaylen Brown, BOS | DK: $9.1k, FD: $9.2k | @ MIN | Cash & GPP
Boston receives the largest pace boost on this slate as they’re up against the Timberwolves who rank 4th in the NBA in tempo. That’s going to bode well for Jaylen Brown’s DFS prospects considering how well he’s been performing lately against teams that do not offer the sort of pace upgrade that Minnesota does. If we exclude the game against Portland last Wednesday in which Brown played just 25 minutes, he has posted DKFP scores of 57.25, 44.75, 63.75, 50.0, and 55.25 in his other recent five starts. That stretch of games did include a pair of overtime contests, but he has played at least 38 minutes in the other three match-ups and he went for 53.75 DKFP in 37 minutes against the T-Wolves in late December. Despite his recent surge, Brown’s DFS salaries have not risen dramatically so he stands out as a high-end target in this evening’s enticing match-up.
SF/PF DeMar DeRozan, CHI | DK: $8.3k, FD: $8.3k | vs. SAC | Cash & GPP
We haven’t seen a huge DeRozan game for a while but he is getting back to that point where he’s providing a consistently strong floor in relation to his current $8,300 DFS salary on both sites. DeRozan is going to push close to 40 minutes in nearly every competitive game and over his last five starts he is averaging 1.10 FPPM to go along with 23.8 PPG and solid peripherals. His last game against Sacramento did not go so well (30.5 DKFP @ SAC on Dec. 4th) but, as mentioned above with Zach LaVine, the Kings match-up is typically going to be a good one for opposing star players given their fast pace and lack of defense.
PF/C Rui Hachimura, LAL | DK: $4.5k, FD: $4.7k | @ HOU | GPP Preferred (If he’s starting)
The Lakers will need some big bodies to fill the void that Anthony Davis and LeBron James leave behind so Rui Hachimura is a candidate to land in the starting lineup this evening. Assuming he starts, he could crack the 30+ minute threshold in a plus match-up against the Rockets. Hachimura hasn’t had as large of an impact as some believed he would when the Lakers acquired him from the Wizards earlier this season, but he has displayed some solid upside at times when given increased minutes. He could end up with a disappointing 20-ish FP outing, but there’s also some realistic 6x-8x upside to be had with Hachimura in this spot.
Other Forwards to Consider:
SF/PF Jayson Tatum, BOS | DK: $11k, FD: $10.8k | @ MIN | GPP Preferred
💫SF/PF Kawhi Leonard, LAC | DK: $9k, FD: $9.9k | @ GSW | DK Preferred
SF Jimmy Butler, MIA | DK: $8.7k, FD: $9.7k | vs. MEM | DK Preferred
PF/C Evan Mobley, CLE | DK: $8.1k, FD: $8k | vs. PHI | GPP Preferred
SF/PF Kyle Anderson, MIN | DK: $7k, FD: $7.1k | vs. BOS | GPP Preferred
PF Jabari Smith Jr., HOU | DK: $6.8k, FD: $7.4k | vs. LAL | GPP Preferred
💫PF/C Draymond Green, GSW | DK: $6.1k, FD: $6.8k | @ LAC | DK Preferred
💫SF Josh Green, DAL | DK: $5.7k, FD: $6k | @ SAS | Cash & GPP
SF/PF Tari Eason, HOU | DK: $5.3k, FD: $5.7k | vs. LAL | GPP Preferred (If starting/Sengun is out)
SF/PF KJ Martin, HOU | DK: $5.2k, FD: $5.6k | vs. LAL | Cash & GPP
💫SF Doug McDermott, SAS | DK: $3.6k, FD: $4.6k | vs. DAL | DK Preferred
Centers to Consider 🏀
💫C Rudy Gobert, MIN | DK: $7.4k, FD: $8.1k | vs. BOS | GPP Preferred (Note: Gobert is currently questionable)
Like most nights, Rudy Gobert carries that pesky questionable tag alongside his name but, as we’ve seen all season, he usually ends up suiting up anyhow. Assuming he sheds the injury designation, he’s going to be a worthy DFS target on this slate. Gobert has bumped his production up to 1.35 FPPM over his last five starts and he has a pair of massive performances in that span that includes 59.25 DKFP against the Nets last Friday and 51.0 DKFP against the Lakers 12 days ago. The Celtics tend to limit huge games from opposing centers so he’ll be hard to trust in cash games, but there is plenty of GPP appeal given Gobert’s recent ability to massively outperform his current DFS price points.
💫C Sandro Mamukelashvili, SAS | DK: $3.1k, FD: $3.9k | vs. DAL | Cash & GPP
The Spurs will not have their top two centers, Zach Collins (ankle) and Charles Bassey (knee), available tonight so that will push Sandro Mamukelashvili to the forefront of potential value at the center position. Even with Collins and Bassey healthy (for the most part) lately, Mamukelashvili has been picking up some meaningful minutes off of the Spurs' bench. He has averaged nearly 17 Min/Gm over the Spurs’ last four contests and Mamukelashvili has posted a respectable 1.03 FPPM during that stretch. He could very well end up as the Spurs’ starting center this evening but even if they elect to roll with Gorgui Dieng at the five, Mamukelashvili should see enough minutes off of the bench to fairly easily return value on his near stone minimum DFS salaries. (By the way, you better believe that I've been copy/pasting "Mamukelashvili" this whole time.)
Other Centers to Consider:
C Joel Embiid, PHI | DK: $11.4k, FD: $12k | @ CLE | GPP Preferred
💫C Domantas Sabonis, SAC | DK: $10.1k, FD: $10.1k | @ CHI | GPP Preferred
C Xavier Tillman, MEM | DK: $5.6k, FD: $5.8k | @ MIA | GPP Preferred
C Kevon Looney, GSW | DK: $5.3k, FD: $5.9k | @ LAC | Cash & GPP (If he starts)
PF/C Wenyen Gabriel, LAL | DK: $3.7k, FD: $4.2k | @ HOU | GPP Preferred
C Luka Garza, MIN | DK: $3.5k, FD: $4k | vs. BOS | GPP Preferred (If BOTH Gobert & Reid happen to sit)
C Gorgui Dieng, SAS | DK: $3k, FD: $3.6k | vs. DAL | GPP Preferred
NBA Player Props 📊
Player Prop or Bet | Odds | Unit Bet Size
Zach LaVine OVER 31.5 Points + Assists | -120 (DraftKings) | 2.0 Units
D’Angelo Russell OVER 2.5 Turnovers | -139 (Caesars) | 2.0 Units
PrizePicks Power Play ⚡
Here is a two-pick “Power Play” I’m liking for today's NBA action over on PrizePicks! Nothing is ever a guarantee to hit but I put my own money on these bets so I don't just lightly throw these out there without believing they'll cash! If it hits, it will return 3x the wager.
Joel Embiid MORE than 3.5 Assists
Jaylen Brown MORE than 39.5 Fantasy Score
🆕 Props AI 🆕
In LineStar’s ongoing mission to improve, innovate, and help you reel in some cash, we are introducing Props AI for NBA – available for LineStar Premium users! This tool can help you find value and mispriced odds on player props from sportsbooks and, more specifically, for PrizePicks and UnderDog Fantasy!
Speaking of props, put the Props AI tool to use by signing up for PrizePicks (Promo code: BETFULLY) or Underdog (Promo code: LINESTAR). You'll receive a 100% match on first deposits up to $100 PLUS a free two-month subscription to LineStar Premium. Many people may not realize that you can legally place prop bets in most states using UnderDog (or PrizePicks) – it’s called Pick'Em, and it’s incredibly easy.
That will wrap us up with today’s “Daily Dribble” edition! Once again, you can find me on Twitter or in LineStar chat @Ryan_Humphries. Good luck everyone!