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- Top NBA DFS Plays & Prop Bets 3/20 | Putting a Focus on Tonight's Mid-Range Options
Top NBA DFS Plays & Prop Bets 3/20 | Putting a Focus on Tonight's Mid-Range Options
Written By: Ryan Humphries on Twitter & LineStar chat @Ryan_Humphries
DFS Main Slate Rundown 📰
We’ll get this week going with a modest Monday six-game slate! There are officially 20 days remaining on the NBA regular season schedule so we’re getting into the midst of the “late-season danger zone” where player availability and minutes can become highly suspect. Just be sure to exercise a little extra caution over these next three weeks, especially when it comes to players on teams that have nothing left to play for. Best of luck tonight!
Today’s Key Injuries:
Pacers: T. Haliburton - OUT, B. Mathurin - Questionable, C. Duarte - Questionable, I. Jackson - Questionable
Hornets: M. Williams - OUT
Bulls: A. Caruso - Questionable
76ers: PJ Tucker - Questionable
Timberwolves: A. Edwards - Questionable, K. Towns - OUT, R. Gobert - Questionable, N. Reid - Questionable, A. Rivers - Questionable, J. Nowell - Doubtful
Knicks: D. Washington Jr. - Questionable
Mavericks: L. Doncic - OUT, K. Irving - Questionable, T. Hardaway Jr. - Questionable
Grizzlies: J. Morant - OUT, J. Jackson Jr. - Questionable, S. Adams - OUT
Warriors: A. Wiggins - OUT, K. Looney - Questionable, T. Jerome - OUT
Rockets: A. Sengun - Questionable, J. Green - Questionable, J. Tate - OUT
Kings: K. Huerter - Questionable, T. Lyles - Questionable
Jazz: L. Markkanen - OUT, J. Clarkson - OUT, C. Sexton - OUT
Main Slate Match-Ups w/ Game Totals & Point Spreads
Top DraftKings & FanDuel DFS Plays
Note: NBA position designations are never going to perfectly align between the major DFS sites. For the purposes of these newsletters, positional designations will default to DraftKings.
💫 = Favorite Play
Point Guards/Shooting Guards to Consider 🏀
PG Steph Curry, GSW | DK: $9.8k, FD: $10k | @ HOU | Cash & GPP
The Warriors have not won a road game since January 30th so if they wish to avoid dropping their 12th road game in a row, Curry may have to come up big tonight. It’s not as if they have a daunting opponent ahead of them this evening. The Rockets own the league’s 29th-ranked defense and the Warriors step in as hefty 10-point favorites. That being said, Houston has been playing teams tough lately, winning three of their last four, including a major upset over the Celtics last Monday. Curry has not been extremely consistent from a DFS perspective recently but, when he’s on, we all know what he’s capable of. He has come through in both previous match-ups with the Rockets this season, dropping 56.25 DKFP against them on Dec. 3rd and he nuked the slate back on Nov. 20th when he went for 77.5 DKFP -- a game that also happened to be played in Houston. The Warriors own a slate-high 124.3 implied team total and when mulling over the high-end guard plays tonight, Steph Curry stands out as arguably the most appealing option.
💫PG TJ McConnell, IND | DK: $6.1k, FD: $6.3k | @ CHA | Cash & GPP
The Pacers’ injury report will be worth monitoring today. Tyrese Haliburton has already been ruled out for the fifth consecutive game while Chris Duarte and Bennedict Mathurin remain questionable. Regardless of Duarte and Mathurin’s statuses, even if he doesn’t start, TJ McConnell should see around 30 minutes tonight due to Haliburton’s absence. He’s a sneaky double-double threat who has racked up 21 assists over his last two games and, on the season, McConnell is averaging 1.07 FPPM. This sets up as a strong match-up environment against the Hornets as well; this game owns a high 233.5 over/under along with the closest spread on the slate (IND -1.5). We can pen McConnell in as a strong mid-range guard option today.
💫SG/SF Ochai Agbaji, UTA | DK: $3.8k, FD: $4.3k | vs. SAC | Cash & GPP
The Jazz have been dealing with some backcourt injuries lately which has opened up the opportunity for Ochai Agbaji to start and earn some quality minutes. He’s far from an elite fantasy point-per-minute scorer (0.60 FPPM this season) but he’s been providing nice value at his current DFS salaries and is coming off of a game on Saturday where he put up 23.75 DKFP in 36 minutes. Targeting the Kings has been a goal all season given their uptempo play (10th in pace) and lackluster defense (26th in def. efficiency). Agbaji could also see some additional usage with Lauri Markkanen (back) ruled out for this evening.
Other Guards to Consider:
PG De’Aaron Fox, SAC | DK: $8.2k, FD: $9.5k | @ UTA | DK Preferred
PG Kevin Porter Jr., HOU | DK: $8k, FD: $8.1k | vs. GSW | GPP Preferred (Bump if J. Green is out)
💫SG Desmond Bane, MEM | DK: $7.8k, FD: $8k | vs. DAL | Cash & GPP
💫PG Jalen Brunson, NYK | DK: $7.5k, FD: $8.8k | vs. MIN | DK Preferred
PG Tyus Jones, MEM | DK: $7k, FD: $6.6k | vs. DAL | GPP Preferred
💫SG/SF Talen Horton-Tucker, IND | DK: $6.8k, FD: $6.8k | vs. SAC | Cash & GPP
PG/SG Jalen Green, HOU | DK: $6.8k, FD: $7.5k | vs. GSW | GPP Preferred (Note: Green is currently questionable)
SG Malik Monk, SAC | DK: $5.5k, FD: $5.5k | @ UTA | GPP Preferred (Bump if Huerter is out)
SG/SF Luke Kennard, MEM | DK: $4k, FD: $4.2k | vs. DAL | Cash & GPP
PG/SG Nickeil Alexander-Walker, MIN | DK: $3.5k, FD: $4.2k | @ NYK | GPP Preferred
Small Forwards/Power Forwards to Consider 🏀
PF Julius Randle, NYK | DK: $9.2k, FD: $9.4k | vs. MIN | Cash & GPP
There is a lack of stud players to choose from at the forward positions today so that will leave Julius Randle as the most expensive (forward) option on the board. His production has declined in recent weeks but so have his DFS salaries. Now that he is priced down to $9.2k/$9.4k, there is meat on the bone and the Knicks (27th in pace) will find themselves in a major pace-up spot against the Timberwolves (5th in pace) tonight. Given Randle’s 1.27 FPPM average over his last 20 games alongside his tendency to play around 36 minutes most nights and the Knicks’ slate-high positive pace differential, he makes for a strong floor play and he’s always a candidate to pop for 50 to 60+ FP in any given game.
💫PF/C PJ Washington, CHA | DK: $5.8k, FD: $6.1k | vs. IND | Cash & GPP
The $5k-$6k salary range looks like the sweet spot for forward options this evening. We’ll lead off out of this mid-range with PJ Washington, who is in a bit of a shooting slump but could be poised for a bounce-back game this evening. Washington’s +2.04% usage boost with LaMelo Ball off the court this season ranks just behind Terry Rozier (+2.24%) for the team lead. He has put up at least 15 shot attempts in four of his last five games and he has averaged +16% more FPPG when well-rested (CHA has not played since Friday). Washington puts up quality peripheral stats, including 2.2 BLK+STL/Gm over his last 20 starts so, if he can get his shot going, he’s a prime candidate to return 6x value (or better) in a prime match-up tonight. The Pacers rank 29th (L20Gms) versus opposing power forwards and in two games against them this season, Washington has responded with 36.25 DKFP (Jan. 8th) and 36.5 DKFP (Nov. 16th).
💫PF Kelly Olynyk, UTA | DK: $5.7k, FD: $5.8k | vs. SAC | Cash & GPP
Kelly Olynyk is rarely an exciting player to roster in DFS but he’s a fairly steady option at these DFS prices and is even coming off of a 38.75 DKFP performance against the Celtics on Saturday. With Lauri Markkanen out of the picture tonight, Olynyk could see some extra usage and a few more rebounds falling in his direction. Markkanen last sat out games on March 5th (@ OKC) and February 15th (@ MEM). In those two games, Olynyk responded with 36.0 DKFP game and a massive 54.5 DKFP performance. The Kings represent a strong match-up for Olynyk given their 28th ranking (L20Gms) versus opposing power forwards.
Other Forwards to Consider:
SF/SG Zach LaVine, CHI | DK: $8.3k, FD: $8.3k | @ PHI | GPP Preferred
💫SF/SG Kelly Oubre Jr., CHA | DK: $6.8k, FD: $7.6k | vs. IND | GPP Preferred
SF/PF Kyle Anderson, MIN | DK: $6.9k, FD: $7.5k | @ NYK | GPP Preferred
SF RJ Barrett, NYK | DK: $6.4k, FD: $7.1k | vs. MIN | GPP Preferred
SF/PF Jordan Nwora, IND | DK: $5.4k, FD: $5.9k | @ CHA | Cash & GPP (Preferred if Duarte and/or Mathurin are out)
💫PF/C Jonathan Kuminga, GSW | DK: $5.3k, FD: $5.6k | @ HOU | GPP Preferred
SF/PF Jaden McDaniels, MIN | DK: $5k, FD: $5.7k | @ NYK | GPP Preferred (Bump if Edwards sits)
SF Dillon Brooks, MEM | DK: $5k, FD: $5.8k | vs. DAL | DK Preferred
SF/PF Simone Fontecchio, UTA | DK: $3.6k, FD: $4.7k | vs. SAC | GPP Preferred (If he’s starting)
💫PF/C Santi Aldama, MEM | DK: $3.7k, FD: $4.6k | vs. DAL | Cash & GPP (If J. Jackson Jr. sits)
PF Rudy Gay, UTA | DK: $3k, FD: $3.9k | vs. SAC | DK Preferred
Centers to Consider 🏀
💫C Joel Embiid, PHI | DK: $11.6k, FD: $11.8k | vs. CHI | Cash & GPP
There is not much left to say about the current NBA MVP frontrunner. Joel Embiid has been as steady as it gets in recent weeks, scoring no fewer than 54.25 DKFP across his last eight games -- and that floor game came on Saturday in a 20-point blowout win over the Pacers (Embiid played only 30 minutes). He’s up to an absurd 1.91 FPPM average over his last five starts and he plays on his home court tonight where he has been particularly effective this season (59.9 FPPG at home, 55.3 FPPG on the road). It’s tough to go wrong shelling out the big bucks for The Process this evening.
💫C Mitchell Robinson, NYK | DK: $4.5k, FD: $6k | vs. MIN | DK Preferred
Robinson doesn’t bring a massive amount of safety to DFS lineups but he is simply too cheap on DraftKings at his $4,500 price tag. At $4,500, Robinson has returned at least 6x value (27.0 DKFP) in eight of his last 12 games and a match-up with the Timberwolves is not necessarily one to avoid. Even if Rudy Gobert (ankle/questionable) suits up, Robinson could have a productive night considering Minnesota has ranked 20th versus opposing centers across their last 20 games (Gobert has only missed three games in that span).
Other Centers to Consider:
C Domantas Sabonis, SAC | DK: $10.4k, FD: $10.7k | @ UTA | Cash & GPP
C Nikola Vucevic, CHI | DK: $7.7k, FD: $9.5k | @ PHI | DK Preferred
C Myles Turner, IND | DK: $7.3k, FD: $7.7k | @ CHA | GPP Preferred
C Walker Kessler, UTA | DK: $7k, FD: $7.9k | vs. SAC | DK Preferred
C Kevon Looney, GSW | DK: $5.4k, FD: $6.1k | @ HOU | GPP Preferred (Note: Looney is currently questionable)
💫C Xavier Tillman, MEM | DK: $5.4k, FD: $5.5k | vs. DAL | Cash & GPP
C Nick Richards, CHA | DK: $5.1k, FD: $5.7k | vs. IND | GPP Preferred
💫PF/C Naz Reid, MIN | DK: $4.2k, FD: $5.9k | @ NYK | DK Preferred (Cash play on both sites if Gobert sits & Reid starts -- Reid is currently questionable as well)
NBA Player Props 📊
Player Prop or Bet | Odds | Unit Bet Size
Kyle Anderson OVER 12.5 Rebounds + Assists | -115 (Caesars) | 2.0 Units
Kelly Olynyk OVER 6.5 Rebounds | -105 (DraftKings) | 2.0 Units
PrizePicks Power Play ⚡
Here is a two-pick “Power Play” I’m liking for today's NBA action over on PrizePicks! Nothing is ever a guarantee to hit but I put my own money on these bets so I don't just lightly throw these out there without believing they'll cash! If it hits, it will return 3x the wager.
Jaden McDaniels MORE than 22.5 Fantasy Score
Kelly Olynyk MORE than 6.5 Rebounds
🆕 Props AI 🆕
In LineStar’s ongoing mission to improve, innovate, and help you reel in some cash, we are introducing Props AI for NBA – available for LineStar Premium users! This tool can help you find value and mispriced odds on player props from sportsbooks and, more specifically, for PrizePicks and UnderDog Fantasy!
Speaking of props, put the Props AI tool to use by signing up for PrizePicks (Promo code: BETFULLY) or Underdog (Promo code: LINESTAR). You'll receive a 100% match on first deposits up to $100 PLUS a free two-month subscription to LineStar Premium. Many people may not realize that you can legally place prop bets in most states using UnderDog (or PrizePicks) – it’s called Pick'Em, and it’s incredibly easy.
That will wrap us up with today’s “Daily Dribble” edition! Once again, you can find me on Twitter or in LineStar chat @Ryan_Humphries. Good luck everyone!