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Top NBA DFS Plays & Prop Bets 3/21 | Making Easy Work of Tonight's Six-Game Slate!
Written By: Ryan Humphries on Twitter & LineStar chat @Ryan_Humphries
DFS Main Slate Rundown 📰
Another NBA six-pack is waiting on deck this evening! Let’s try to crack the code on yet another tricky late-season slate and stack up some dinero. Best of luck!
Today’s Key Injuries:
Wizards: K. Kuzma - OUT
Magic: J. Suggs - OUT
Pistons: B. Bogdanovic - OUT, I. Livers - Questionable, J. Duren - OUT, I. Stewart - OUT, H. Diallo - OUT, A. Burks - OUT, RJ Hampton - Questionable
Hawks: D. Murray - OUT, J. Johnson - OUT
Cavaliers: J. Allen - Questionable
Nets: B. Simmons - OUT
Spurs: K. Johnson - Doubtful, D. Vassell - OUT, Z. Collins - OUT, J. Sochan - OUT, D. Graham - Questionable, C. Bassey - OUT, D. McDermott - Probable
Pelicans: Z. Williamson - OUT, J. Alvarado - OUT
Celtics: P. Pritchard - OUT
Kings: K. Huerter - Questionable
Thunder: None
Clippers: N. Powell - OUT
Main Slate Match-Ups w/ Game Totals & Point Spreads
Top DraftKings & FanDuel DFS Plays
Note: NBA position designations are never going to perfectly align between the major DFS sites. For the purposes of these newsletters, positional designations will default to DraftKings.
💫 = Favorite Play
Point Guards/Shooting Guards to Consider 🏀
PG Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, OKC | DK: $9.8k, FD: $10.6k | @ LAC | Cash & GPP
We have SGA leading the way among guard pricing on tonight’s slate. So, we have to decide, is he worth spending up for? I’d say he’s maybe not a “smash play” but certainly on the radar. The big draw with SGA centers around his match-up with the Clippers who have been bleeding fantasy points to opposing point guards lately (see image below). The last ten point guards to face the Clippers are averaging a ridiculous 50.75 FPPG! While that list includes superstars like Damian Lillard, Steph Curry, and De’Aaron Fox, other less dominant guards have had massive outings against the Clippers as well -- e.g. Markelle Fultz, Immanuel Quickley, and Tyus Jones. Gilgeous-Alexander is about as steady as it gets from a PPG standpoint and his 32.9 PPG average over the last 20 games has allowed him to average 51.14 FPPG in that stretch. SGA put up 63.25 DKFP against the Clippers in the third game of the season and they’ve only gotten worse in defending the PG position since then. We should be able to get 50+ FP out of Shai tonight with decent upside for 60+ FP.
💫SG/SF Franz Wagner, ORL | DK: $6.3k, FD: $6.7k | vs. WAS | Cash & GPP
At his current DFS salaries, Wagner has made for a rock-solid floor play as of late with some quality upside as well. He went for 45.0 DKFP against the Lakers on Sunday with a well-balanced performance that involved 21 points, eight rebounds, seven assists, and two steals. He scored at least 30.25 DKFP in seven of his last eight contests and he receives a slight bump in usage with Jalen Suggs (concussion/out) off the court. This match-up between the Magic and Wizards doesn’t necessarily jump off the page but it does feature a slender one-point spread and the last time these two teams met, they combined for 256 points (in regulation).
💫SG/SF Bogdan Bogdanovic, ATL | DK: $4.9k, FD: $5.2k | vs. DET | Cash & GPP
One of the more notable injury absences on this slate will involve Hawks’ guard Dejounte Murray, who will be sitting out tonight’s game with an illness. Murray has been healthy for the vast majority of the season, but he did miss a five-game stretch in mid-December. In those games, Bogdan Bogdanovic took advantage of an increased role and posted DKFP totals of 42.5, 47.75, 28.25, and 42.75 (he was out during the Dec. 12th game that Murray also missed) while averaging 32.5 Min/Gm. Bogdanovic should be expected to step into the starting lineup tonight and, assuming he plays 30+ minutes, his 0.93 FPPM average (L20Gms) should translate to fairly easy value at his current DFS salaries. There are some blowout concerns with Atlanta being heavy -13.5 favorites against an awful and shorthanded Pistons team, but without a massive amount of standout value on this slate (at the time of this writing), Bogdanovic makes for one of the more appealing cheap options. He does project to be extremely chalky tonight so if you want to fade or lower exposure in GPPs, that may end up being a wise move as well.
Other Guards to Consider:
💫PG Trae Young, ATL | DK: $9.6k, FD: $9.9k | vs. DET | Cash & GPP
💫PG De’Aaron Fox, SAC | DK: $8.3k, FD: $9.2k | vs. BOS | DK Preferred
PG CJ McCollum, NOP | DK: $8k, FD: $8.7k | vs. SAS | GPP Preferred
PG Darius Garland, CLE | DK: $7.5k, FD: $8.3k | @ BKN | Cash & GPP
PG Markelle Fultz, ORL | DK: $7k, FD: $7.6k | vs. WAS | GPP Preferred
SG Malik Monk, SAC | DK: $5.2k, FD: $6k | vs. BOS | GPP Preferred
PG Ricky Rubio, CLE | DK: $4k, FD: $4.5k | @ BKN | GPP Preferred
💫SG/SF AJ Griffin, ATL | DK: $3.4k, FD: $4.1k | vs. DET | Cash & GPP
Small Forwards/Power Forwards to Consider 🏀
💫SF/PF Kawhi Leonard, LAC | DK: $9.5k, FD: $9.7k | vs. OKC | Cash & GPP
The Clippers have notched five wins in their last six games with their only loss coming to the Magic on Saturday, which was a game that Kawhi Leonard did not play. The Clippers have been cautious with Leonard’s workload throughout the season but, lately, when he’s suiting up, he’s playing huge minutes. Over his last five starts, he is averaging 38.1 Min/Gm resulting in 30.0 PPG and some solid peripherals (7.8 RPG, 3.4 APG, 1.8 STL+BLK/Gm). At home this season, Leonard is shooting an efficient 52.5% from the field, including 44.2% from beyond the arc. The Clippers (24th in pace) also find themselves in a significant pace-up spot versus the Thunder (2nd in pace) which makes Kawhi Leonard one of the more appealing spend-up forward options this evening.
SF/PF Deni Avdija, WAS | DK: $5k, FD: $5k | @ ORL | Cash & GPP
Avdija will be a primary candidate to pick up some of the slack that the injured Kyle Kuzma (ankle/out) leaves behind tonight. Avdija has played at least 30 minutes in four of the last six games that Kuzma has sat out. Even playing off of the bench, he’ll be a strong candidate to handle 30-32 minutes in this evening’s game and if we extrapolate his 0.93 FPPM average from his last 20 games, it’s clear to see how he can return some nice value on his $5,000 price tag on both sites tonight.
💫SF/PF Keita Bates-Diop, SAS | DK: $3.7k, FD: $5.1k | @ NOP | Cash & GPP
The Spurs continue to limp to the finish line of an extremely forgettable season. They’ll be particularly shorthanded today with five key rotational players already ruled out (K. Johnson, D. Vassell, Z. Collins, J. Sochan, C. Bassey). Keita Bates-Diop should be sliding into the starting rotation as a result of all of those injuries. Even in a potential blowout (SAS +13.5), KBD should handle around 28-34 minutes. He has put up a respectable 0.83 FPPM this season so he is simply too cheap on DraftKings at $3,700 and still a playable value option on FanDuel.
Other Forwards to Consider:
SF/PF Jayson Tatum, BOS | DK: $10.5k, FD: $10.8k | @ SAC | GPP Preferred
💫SF/SG Jaylen Brown, BOS | DK: $9k, FD: $9.5k | @ SAC | Cash & GPP
PF/C Evan Mobley, CLE | DK: $7.7k, FD: $8.4k | @ BKN | GPP Preferred (Bump if J. Allen is out)
💫SF/PF Paolo Banchero, ORL | DK: $7.2k, FD: $7.6k | vs. WAS | Cash & GPP
💫PF/C Marvin Bagley III, DET | DK: $6.3k, FD: $5.6k | @ ATL | FD Preferred
PF Keegan Murray, SAC | DK: $4.6k, FD: $5.6k | vs. BOS | GPP Preferred
SF/SG Corey Kispert, WAS | DK: $4.2k, FD: $4.8k | @ ORL | GPP Preferred
PF Trey Lyles, SAC | DK: $4k, FD: $5.1k | vs. BOS | DK Preferred
SF Doug McDermott, SAS | DK: $3.6k, FD: $4.6k | @ NOP | DK Preferred
Centers to Consider 🏀
💫C Wendell Carter Jr., ORL | DK: $6.9k, FD: $7.2k | vs. WAS | Cash & GPP
WCJ has stepped his game up a notch lately. He has posted an impressive 1.21 FPPM and 40.95 FPPG over his last five starts while playing at least 33 minutes in four of those games. He draws a positive match-up against a Wizards squad that has ranked 28th (L20Gms) versus opposing centers and they’re giving up 42.95 FPPG to starting centers over their last 10 contests. Carter won’t break the bank tonight and he’ll provide a strong floor and has displayed a massive ceiling recently as well with a 57.0 DKFP performance against the Clippers on Saturday.
C Jaylin Williams, OKC | DK: $3.5k, FD: $5.5k | @ LAC | DK Preferred
The most popular value center on this slate will be Sandro Mamukelashvili ($4.2k/$5.1k), who should eat up most of the Spurs’ center minutes with Zach Collins and Charles Bassey both out. I have no issues rolling out a cheap Mamukelashvili, but for a worthy DraftKings-specific pivot off of the Mamukelashvili chalk, Jaylin Williams is worth a look at $3,500. His minutes are not always the most predictable but when he plays 20+ minutes, he’s typically going to return quality value on a $3.5k price tag. Williams has averaged 0.89 FPPM on the season and 0.98 FPPM over his last five starts. He’ll draw a pretty appealing match-up against the Clippers, who have ranked 23rd versus centers in their last 20 games.
Other Centers to Consider:
C Domantas Sabonis, SAC | DK: $10.4k, FD: $11k | vs. BOS | GPP Preferred
PF/C Kristaps Porzingis, WAS | DK: $8.9k, FD: $9k | @ ORL | GPP Preferred
💫C Jonas Valanciunas, NOP | DK: $6.6k, FD: $7.5k | vs. SAS | GPP Preferred
C Jarrett Allen, CLE | DK: $6.2k, FD: $7.7k | @ BKN | DK Preferred (Note: Allen is currently questionable)
C Ivica Zubac, LAC | DK: $5.9k, FD: $6.9k | vs. OKC | GPP Preferred
C Onyeka Okongwu, ATL | DK: $5k, FD: $6.3k | vs. DET | DK Preferred
💫C Sandro Mamukelashvili, SAS | DK: $4.2k, FD: $5.1k | @ NOP | Cash & GPP
NBA Player Props 📊
Player Prop or Bet | Odds | Unit Bet Size
Wendell Carter Jr. OVER 9.5 Rebounds | +100 (FanDuel) | 2.0 Units
Franz Wagner OVER 21.5 Points + Rebounds | -115 (PointsBet) | 2.0 Units
PrizePicks Power Play ⚡
Here is a two-pick “Power Play” I’m liking for today's NBA action over on PrizePicks! Nothing is ever a guarantee to hit but I put my own money on these bets so I don't just lightly throw these out there without believing they'll cash! If it hits, it will return 3x the wager.
Trey Murphy III MORE than 2.5 Three-Pointers Made
Franz Wagner MORE than 21.5 PTS + REBS
🆕 Props AI 🆕
In LineStar’s ongoing mission to improve, innovate, and help you reel in some cash, we are introducing Props AI for NBA – available for LineStar Premium users! This tool can help you find value and mispriced odds on player props from sportsbooks and, more specifically, for PrizePicks and UnderDog Fantasy!
Speaking of props, put the Props AI tool to use by signing up for PrizePicks (Promo code: BETFULLY) or Underdog (Promo code: LINESTAR). You'll receive a 100% match on first deposits up to $100 PLUS a free two-month subscription to LineStar Premium. Many people may not realize that you can legally place prop bets in most states using UnderDog (or PrizePicks) – it’s called Pick'Em, and it’s incredibly easy.
That will wrap us up with today’s “Daily Dribble” edition! Once again, you can find me on Twitter or in LineStar chat @Ryan_Humphries. Good luck everyone!