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Top NBA DFS Plays & Prop Bets 3/7 | Jumping Back on the Saddle with an Eight-Game Tuesday Slate!
Written By: Ryan Humphries on Twitter & LineStar chat @Ryan_Humphries
DFS Main Slate Rundown 📰
Aaaand we’re back! I’ve taken a page out of the NBA players’ playbook and been on the sideline since Friday with an illness so apologies for going soft and missing the last couple of newsletters. Please don’t drop the Kobe “soft” gif on me. It looks like I’m walking back into an interesting slate today. Eight games on the board this evening with a ton of injury/suspension impacts which includes plenty of annoying “questionable” situations. I can’t say I’m feeling 100% so this will be a more brief newsletter but let’s see what we can put together today.
Also, a massive congrats goes out to our own LineStarTyler for taking down a six-figure payday last night! Let’s all be like Tyler today!
Let's give a big round of applause for our very own @flattyler83 (aka LineStarTyler) who absolutely CRUSHED it tonight with an incredible $100K takedown! Way to go! twitter.com/i/web/status/1…
— 𝗟𝗜𝗡𝗘𝗦𝗧𝗔𝗥 𝗗𝗙𝗦 & 𝗣𝗥𝗢𝗣𝗦 (@LineStarApp)
5:29 AM • Mar 7, 2023
Today’s Key Injuries:
Bucks: G. Antetokounpo - OUT, J. Holiday - OUT, W. Matthews - OUT, G. Dragic - OUT
Magic: W. Carter Jr. - OUT, G. Harris - OUT, J. Isaac - OUT, A. Schofield - OUT
Wizards: K. Kuzma - Questionable, M. Morris - Doubtful
Pistons: B. Bogdanovic - OUT, K. Hayes - OUT, J. Duren - OUT, I. Stewart - OUT, H. Diallo - OUT, A. Burks - OUT
Hornets: L. Ball - OUT (done for season -- won’t mention him in this section moving forward)
Knicks: J. Brunson - OUT
76ers: J. Harden - Questionable, T. Harris - Questionable, PJ Tucker - Questionable
Timberwolves: K. Towns - OUT, J. Nowell - OUT, A. Rivers - Probable
Warriors: A. Wiggins - OUT, D. Green - Probable, K. Looney - Questionable, A. Iguodala - Probable
Thunder: Jal. Williams - OUT, A. Pokusevski - OUT, K. Williams - OUT (done for season - won’t mention him in this section moving forward)
Nets: B. Simmons - OUT
Rockets: None
Jazz: J. Clarkson - Questionable, W. Kessler - Questionable, C. Sexton - OUT
Mavericks: M. Kleber - Questionable, J. McGee - Doubtful
Grizzles: J. Morant - OUT, S. Adams - OUT, B. Clarke - OUT
Lakers: A. Davis - Probable, L. James - OUT, D. Russell - Questionable, M. Bamba - OUT
Main Slate Match-Ups w/ Game Totals & Point Spreads
Top DraftKings & FanDuel DFS Plays
Note: NBA position designations are never going to perfectly align between the major DFS sites. For the purposes of these newsletters, positional designations will default to DraftKings.
💫 = Favorite Play
Point Guards/Shooting Guards to Consider 🏀
PG Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, OKC | DK: $10k, FD: $10.8k | vs. GSW | Cash & GPP
There is an immense amount of value at the guard positions today so spending up may seem counter-intuitive. However, if we’re eyeing a stud guard today, SGA is in an excellent spot to pay off his five-figure price tags. Despite missing five games, he returned to action against the Jazz on Sunday and logged 37 minutes while pouring in 38 points, seven boards, four dimes, three steals, and a block (59.25 DKFP). For fantasy purposes, this match-up lands atop the rankings given its slate-high 243.5 O/U and fastest overall combined pace. The Warriors (1st) and Thunder (3rd) are among the fastest-paced teams in the NBA so expect a huge amount of possessions and DFS scoring opportunities in this one.
PG/SG Jaden Ivey, DET | DK: $5.8k, FD: $6.1k | vs. WAS | Cash & GPP
There are safer options on the board but Ivey is going to likely take on a massive workload tonight. The list of unavailable Pistons is a lengthy one -- Bogdanovic, Hayes, Duren, Stewart, Diallo, and Burks have all been ruled out for tonight’s game. Outside of a dud performance against the Cavaliers, who rank 2nd in defensive efficiency, Ivey has scored at least 27.0 DKFP in his other seven previous games and is most recently coming off of a 41.75 DKFP performance, despite shooting 4-14 from the floor. The Pistons (+10) are a good bet to be blown out tonight but, given his rookie status, Jaden Ivey should see his fair share of playing time regardless of the score. And it isn’t as if the Pistons have many healthy bodies to replace him on the floor, to begin with.
PG Jevon Carter, MIL | DK: $3.7k, FD: $4.4k | @ ORL | Cash & GPP
Tyus Jones is the clear PG value lock on DraftKings but Jevon Carter is even cheaper and has popped off with some huge performances when given the starting nod this season. He’ll start in place of Jrue Holiday tonight and the Bucks will also be without the NBA’s usage leader, Giannis Antetokounmpo (38.6% USG%). When those two players have been off the court, Carter has increased his usage by +6.89% and also owns an +11.59 FP (per 48 min.) increase.
Other Guards to Consider:
PG Luka Doncic, DAL | DK: $12k, FD: $12k | vs. UTA | GPP Preferred
PG Steph Curry, GSW | DK: $10.1k, FD: $9.5k | @ OKC | GPP Preferred
SG Bradley Beal, WAS | DK: $8.2k, FD: $8.7k | @ DET | DK Preferred
SG Mikal Bridges, BKN | DK: $8.1k, FD: $8.5k | @ HOU | Cash & GPP
SG Desmond Bane, MEM | DK: $7.7k, FD: $8.2k | @ LAL | Cash & GPP
PG Spencer Dinwiddie, BKN | DK: $7.3k, FD: $8.4k | @ HOU | DK Preferred
PG/SG Tyrese Maxey, PHI | DK: $5.8k, FD: $6.4k | @ MIN | Cash & GPP (Bump if Harden sits)
PG/SG Immanuel Quickley, NYK | DK: $5k, FD: $7.3k | vs. CHA | DK Preferred (Bump if Brunson sits -- UPDATE: Brunson is OUT tonight)
PG Tyus Jones, MEM | DK: $4.9k, FD: $7.5k | @ LAL | Cash & GPP (Basically a lock on DraftKings)
PG Kris Dunn, UTA | DK: $4.8k, FD: $5.6k | @ DAL | GPP Preferred
PG/SG Austin Reaves, LAL | DK: $4.1k, FD: $5.1k | vs. MEM | GPP Preferred
Small Forwards/Power Forwards to Consider 🏀
PF/C Jaren Jackson Jr., MEM | DK: $7.9k, FD: $8.1k | @ LAL | Cash & GPP
The Grizzlies will be without Ja Morant (suspension) for a second consecutive game and they’re also short on bigs with Steven Adams and Brandon Clarke both sidelined. With those three players off the court, JJJ has upped his usage by +5.46% and averaged nearly 10 more FP (per 48 min.). Assuming he can crack mid-30s minutes, as he did in the previous game, he’s fully capable of unlocking 50+ FP upside. The Lakers allow 52.2 points in the paint per game (8th most) and 5.3 opponent blocks per game (6th most). He’ll be contending with Anthony Davis down low, but overall it’s a strong match-up in a game that should feature plenty of possessions (MEM: 7th in pace, LAL: 2nd in pace).
SF/PF Cameron Johnson, BKN | DK: $5.9k, FD: $6k | @ HOU | Cash & GPP
Cameron Johnson has a solid role with his new team in Brooklyn and he has hit a nice stride as of late. Over his last five games, he’s averaging 35.55 FPPG and 1.12 FPPM. The Nets will take on a defensively challenged Rockets team that ranks 29th in def. efficiency and has allowed 119.8 PPG over their last 20 games.
SF/PF Tari Eason, HOU | DK: $4.8k, FD: $6.2k | vs. BKN | Cash & GPP
Eason doesn’t start and the Rockets' rotational minutes can be a bit of a mystery at times, but until he completely duds, it makes sense to ride the Eason express for another night. Eason has logged at least 25 minutes in each of his last five games and given his efficient fantasy point-per-minute prowess (1.18 FPPM L5Gms), he’s consistently providing value (34.4 FPPG L5Gms). He’s priced appropriately on FanDuel, and still playable there, but he comes at a strong bargain on DraftKings at just $4,800.
Other Forwards to Consider:
PF Julius Randle, NYK | DK: $9.9k, FD: $10k | vs. CHA | GPP Preferred
SF/SG Kelly Oubre Jr., CHA | DK: $7.2k, FD: $8k | @ NYK | GPP Preferred
SF Khris Middleton, MIL | DK: $6.4k, FD: $6.4k | @ ORL | Cash & GPP
PF/C Marvin Bagley III, DET | DK: $5.5k, FD: $7k | vs. WAS | DK Preferred
PF/C Xavier Tillman, MEM | DK: $5.4k, FD: $5.7k | @ LAL | Cash & GPP
SF/PF Isaiah Livers, DET | DK: $3.4k, FD: $4.2k | vs. WAS | GPP Preferred
SF/PF Jalen McDaniels, PHI | DK: $3.1k, FD: $4k | @ MIN | Cash & GPP (If T. Harris or PJ Tucker sits)
Centers to Consider 🏀
PF/C Kristaps Porzingis, WAS | DK: $9k, FD: $9.7k | @ DET | GPP Preferred
There is not a lot to love at the center position tonight but if this game between the Wizards (-10) and Pistons stays competitive, Porzingis would likely eat against a forgiving Detroit frontcourt that allows the 3rd most points in the paint per game (54.5) and the 4th most blocks per game (5.5). Porzingis has dropped 50+ DKFP in three of his last five starts and he’ll likely eclipse that mark again **if** he plays mid-30s minutes.
C Mitchell Robinson, NYK | DK: $4.9k, FD: $6.6k | vs. CHA | DK Preferred
Robinson may be the most appealing center play on DraftKings today. He is simply too cheap at $4,900. He had a dud performance against Miami last Friday, but that is not all too surprising considering the Heat allow the fewest FPPG to opposing centers. In his other five games since returning from a 14-game injury absence, Robinson has dropped at least 29.75 DKFP. He’ll be in a prime spot against the Hornets, who have ranked 23rd against opposing centers over their last 20 games.
Other Centers to Consider:
C Joel Embiid, PHI | DK: $11.5k, FD: $11.8k | @ MIN | GPP Preferred
C Anthony Davis, LAL | DK: $10.8k, FD: $11.5k | @ MEM | GPP Preferred
C Walker Kessler, UTA | DK: $7k, FD: $8k | @ DAL | DK Preferred (Note: Kessler is currently questionable)
C Brook Lopez, MIL | DK: $6.7k, FD: $7k | @ ORL | GPP Preferred
PF/C Bobby Portis, MIL | DK: $6.3k, FD: $6.2k | @ ORL | GPP Preferred
NBA Player Props 📊
Player Prop or Bet | Odds | Unit Bet Size
Jaren Jackson Jr. OVER 2.5 Blocks | -135 (DraftKings) | 2.0 Units
Dennis Smith Jr. OVER 1.5 Blocks + Steals | +110 (DraftKings) | 2.0 Units
PrizePicks Power Play ⚡
Here is a two-pick “Power Play” I’m liking for today's NBA action over on PrizePicks! Nothing is ever a guarantee to hit but I put my own money on these bets so I don't just lightly throw these out there without believing they'll cash! If it hits, it will return 3x the wager.
Mikal Bridges MORE than 39.5 Fantasy Score
Tyus Jones MORE than 26.5 PTS+REBS+ASTS
🆕 Props AI 🆕
In LineStar’s ongoing mission to improve, innovate, and help you reel in some cash, we are introducing Props AI for NBA – available for LineStar Premium users! This tool can help you find value and mispriced odds on player props from sportsbooks and, more specifically, for PrizePicks and UnderDog Fantasy!
Speaking of props, put the Props AI tool to use by signing up for PrizePicks (Promo code: BETFULLY) or Underdog (Promo code: LINESTAR). You'll receive a 100% match on first deposits up to $100 PLUS a free two-month subscription to LineStar Premium. Many people may not realize that you can legally place prop bets in most states using UnderDog (or PrizePicks) – it’s called Pick'Em, and it’s incredibly easy.
That will wrap us up with today’s “Daily Dribble” edition! Once again, you can find me on Twitter or in LineStar chat @Ryan_Humphries. Good luck everyone!