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Top NBA DFS Plays & Prop Bets 3/8 | Diving Into Some Midweek Mayhem!
Written By: Ryan Humphries on Twitter & LineStar chat @Ryan_Humphries
DFS Main Slate Rundown 📰
We have ourselves a solid midweek mid-sized slate on our hands this evening with seven games on the board! The injury bug is not too rampant today so it’s largely a “back to basics” kinda day. There are some high totals posted today with five of the seven games currently holding 230+ over/unders so don’t expect many defensive struggles on this slate. Let’s cook up something nice! Best of luck!
Today’s Key Injuries:
Hawks: None
Wizards: M. Morris - Probable
Trailblazers: A. Simons - OUT, J. Nurkic - Questionable, J. Winslow - OUT
Celtics: R. Williams - OUT, P. Pritchard - Questionable
Cavaliers: None
Heat: K. Love - Probable, K. Lowry - OUT
Mavericks: R. Bullock - Doubtful, M. Kleber - OUT, J. McGee - OUT
Pelicans: Z. Williamson - OUT, L. Nance Jr. - OUT, J. Alvarado - OUT
Bulls: None
Nuggets: M. Porter Jr. - Probable, V. Cancar - Questionable, Z. Nnaji - OUT
Thunder: S. Gilgeous-Alexander - OUT, Jal. Williams - OUT, A. Pokusevski - OUT
Suns: L. Shamet - OUT
Raptors: W. Barton - Questionable
Clippers: N. Powell - OUT
Main Slate Match-Ups w/ Game Totals & Point Spreads
Top DraftKings & FanDuel DFS Plays
Note: NBA position designations are never going to perfectly align between the major DFS sites. For the purposes of these newsletters, positional designations will default to DraftKings.
💫 = Favorite Play
Point Guards/Shooting Guards to Consider 🏀
💫PG Trae Young, ATL | DK: $8.8k, FD: $9.5k | @ WAS | Cash & GPP
Young enters off of back-to-back disappointing starts but we can probably pin some of the blame on the match-up. Both of those games came against a Miami team that plays quality defense and operates at the third-slowest pace in the NBA. The Wizards aren’t necessarily a phenomenal match-up either but they have struggled against point guards (WAS: 23rd vs. starting PGs L20Gms) and this game carries a slate-high 237.0 over/under along with a close spread (ATL -3). Before the two lackluster performances against Miami, Trae Young had put up at least 52.25 DKFP in six of his previous eight games. This is a good opportunity to jump on Young’s slightly depressed DFS salaries.
PG Malcolm Brogdon, BOS | DK: $6.2k, FD: $5.7k | vs. POR | GPP Preferred
If we knew Brogdon would play mid-30s minutes on any given night, he’d be a smash play at his current DFS salaries. As it stands now, as long as he continues to come off of the bench, his minutes will always be a bit unpredictable. He has logged between 28 and 39 minutes in five of his last seven games, putting up at least 32.5 DKFP in each of those “big minutes” games. There is some moderately high blowout potential in this match-up (BOS -10) but if Brogdon handles strong minutes once again, he will make for a prime GPP play against a porous Portland defense that ranks 27th in defensive efficiency.
💫SG Isaiah Joe, OKC | DK: $4.4k, FD: $4.4k | @ PHX | Cash & GPP
Now that the Suns are essentially at full strength with Kevin Durant and Devin Booker both shooting the lights out lately, this match-up has blowout potential written all over it -- that is backed up by the huge 13.5-point spread in favor of Phoenix. But with Shai Gilgeous-Alexander sidelined this evening, Isaiah Joe should slide into the starting rotation. He’s been an efficient per-minute scorer this season, averaging 0.93 FPPM. He also feels somewhat protected from any potential blowout given the Thunder’s lack of backcourt depth. It could certainly backfire, but if Isaiah Joe receives around 28 minutes tonight, he should be able to pay off his modest $4,400 DFS salaries on both sites.
Other Guards to Consider:
PG Damian Lillard, POR | DK: $11.5k, FD: $11.2k | @ BOS | Cash & GPP
PG/SG Devin Booker, PHX | DK: $9.5k, FD: $10.3k | vs. OKC | GPP Preferred
💫PG Fred VanVleet, TOR | DK: $8.4k, FD: $8.2k | @ LAC | Cash & GPP
💫SG Bradley Beal, WAS | DK: $8.1k, FD: $8.6k | vs. ATL | Cash & GPP
PG Jamal Murray, DEN | DK: $7.8k, FD: $8.3k | vs. CHI | GPP Preferred
PG/SG Josh Giddey, OKC | DK: $7.6k, FD: $8.4k | @ PHX | GPP Preferred
💫SG/SF Cam Reddish, POR | DK: $4.7k, FD: $5.6k | @ BOS | DK Preferred
SG Kentavious Caldwell-Pope, DEN | DK: $3.9k, FD: $5.1k | vs. CHI | DK Preferred
Small Forwards/Power Forwards to Consider 🏀
💫SF/PF Jayson Tatum, BOS | DK: $10.3k, FD: $11.1k | vs. POR | Cash & GPP
It feels like we’re navigating a minefield at the forward positions today so spending up on a high-floor player like Jayson Tatum is going to have plenty of appeal. Tatum is averaging 31.8 PPG and 54.5 FPPG at home this season and draws a terrific match-up versus a Trailblazers team that has allowed 122.4 PPG over their last 20 games. Regardless of blowout, Tatum projects for a rock-solid 50 FP floor and, if Dame Lillard and the Trailblazers can keep this game competitive into the fourth quarter, there is ample room for a 60+ FP game out of the Celtics’ star forward this evening.
💫SF/SG Tim Hardaway Jr., DAL | DK: $4.6k, FD: $5.2k | @ NOP | Cash & GPP
It’s definitely an odd slate when I’m labeling Tim Hardaway Jr. a cash-viable play but that’s where we’re at today. Hardaway has scored at least 24.5 DKFP in five of his last six games while coming off of the bench and he has seen a slight uptick in usage when Reggie Bullock (quadriceps/doubtful) has been unavailable this season. He’s an affordable DFS option who should pick up some decent usage whenever one of Luka Doncic or Kyrie Irving is off the court tonight.
💫SF/SG Bruce Brown, DEN | DK: $3.8k, FD: $5.5k | vs. CHI | DK Preferred
Bruce Brown is not an overly appealing option at his $5,500 price tag on FanDuel, but there is room for upside over on DraftKings where he’s down to $3,800. Brown should continue to come off of the bench and handle 25-30 minutes which is plenty of time for him to return value (on DK). He has put up at least 26.25 DKFP in three of his past four contests and he likely puts up around a dozen shots with the Nuggets’ second unit. For a reserve player, Brown is also a solid source of rebounds and steals. Not an exciting play, but a sensible one if you need some savings on DraftKings this evening.
Other Forwards to Consider:
SF/PF Kevin Durant, PHX | DK: $9.8k, FD: $10.1k | vs. OKC | GPP Preferred
SF/SG Jaylen Brown, BOS | DK: $9.1k, FD: $9.4k | vs. POR | GPP Preferred
SF Brandon Ingram, NOP | DK: $8.4k, FD: $8.3k | vs. DAL | GPP Preferred
PF Jerami Grant, POR | DK: $7.3k, FD: $7.8k | @ BOS | GPP Preferred
💫SF Michael Porter Jr., DEN | DK: $5.8k, FD: $6.7k | vs. CHI | DK Preferred
PF/C Al Horford, BOS | DK: $5.5k, FD: $5.7k | vs. POR | GPP Preferred
SF/PF De’Andre Hunter, ATL | DK: $4.5k, FD: $5.3k | @ WAS | GPP Preferred
SF Aaron Wiggins, OKC | DK: $3.5k, FD: $5.3k | @ PHX | DK Preferred
PF Ousmane Dieng, OKC | DK: $3.2k, FD: $3.9k | @ PHX | GPP Preferred
Centers to Consider 🏀
PF/C Pascal Siakam, TOR | DK: $8.5k, FD: $8.8k | @ LAC | GPP Preferred
It’s tough to be excited about the center options on this slate, especially since it doesn’t feel like a great spot to spend up on the Joker. Pascal Siakam has not been putting up massive numbers lately but his DFS salaries have dipped to a more appealing sub-$9k range on both sites. He’s still playing huge minutes on a nightly basis and faces a Clippers team that has really struggled defensively as of late, especially against opposing frontcourts. It’ll be a tough pill to swallow if Siakam only ends up posting a mid-30s fantasy point total, as he has in each of his last four games. But he also brings 50+ FP upside to the table and he went off for 57.75 DKFP against the Clippers earlier this season.
💫C Clint Capela, ATL | DK: $6.3k, FD: $7.2k | @ WAS | Cash & GPP
Capela sets up as a solid mid-range center target, particularly if Onyeka Okongwu takes more of a backseat off the bench and allows Capela to hit mid-30s minutes. He has popped off for at least 35.5 DKFP in three of his last four starts despite playing 25 minutes in two of those contests. He is averaging a sturdy 1.23 FPPM over his last five, and 1.19 FPPM over his last 20, and the Wizards have ranked inside the bottom third of the league against opposing centers across their previous 20 games.
Other Centers to Consider:
PF/C Kristaps Porzingis, WAS | DK: $8.9k, FD: $9.8k | vs. ATL | GPP Preferred
C Jonas Valanciunas, NOP | DK: $6.9k, FD: $6.4k | vs. DAL | GPP Preferred
💫C Jakob Poeltl, TOR | DK: $6.6k, FD: $8k | @ LAC | DK Preferred
C Christian Wood, DAL | DK: $4.9k, FD: $5.9k | @ NOP | DK Preferred
C Mike Muscala, BOS | DK: $3.7k, FD: $4.2k | vs. POR | GPP Preferred (If he starts)
C Jaylin Williams, OKC | DK: $3.7k, FD: $4.8k | @ PHX | DK Preferred
NBA Player Props 📊
Player Prop or Bet | Odds | Unit Bet Size
Clint Capela OVER 12.5 Points + Assists | -110 (DraftKings) | 2.0 Units
Tim Hardaway Jr. OVER 14.5 Points | -109 (Caesars) | 2.0 Units
PrizePicks Power Play ⚡
Here is a two-pick “Power Play” I’m liking for today's NBA action over on PrizePicks! Nothing is ever a guarantee to hit but I put my own money on these bets so I don't just lightly throw these out there without believing they'll cash! If it hits, it will return 3x the wager.
Jayson Tatum MORE than 2.5 Turnovers
Clint Capela MORE than 28.5 Fantasy Score
🆕 Props AI 🆕
In LineStar’s ongoing mission to improve, innovate, and help you reel in some cash, we are introducing Props AI for NBA – available for LineStar Premium users! This tool can help you find value and mispriced odds on player props from sportsbooks and, more specifically, for PrizePicks and UnderDog Fantasy!
Speaking of props, put the Props AI tool to use by signing up for PrizePicks (Promo code: BETFULLY) or Underdog (Promo code: LINESTAR). You'll receive a 100% match on first deposits up to $100 PLUS a free two-month subscription to LineStar Premium. Many people may not realize that you can legally place prop bets in most states using UnderDog (or PrizePicks) – it’s called Pick'Em, and it’s incredibly easy.
That will wrap us up with today’s “Daily Dribble” edition! Once again, you can find me on Twitter or in LineStar chat @Ryan_Humphries. Good luck everyone!