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Top NBA DFS Plays & Prop Bets 4/19 | Getting Back Into the Action on Wednesday's Three-Game Playoff Slate!
Written By: Ryan Humphries on Twitter & LineStar chat @Ryan_Humphries
DFS Main Slate Rundown 📰
Hello again to my NBA enthusiasts! We’re back to dish out a quick playoff newsletter for Wednesday’s action on the three-game slate. I wasn’t able to get one of these together in time yesterday, but the goal will be to have a playoff newsletter sent out for any Monday-Friday playoff slate that features at least three games. Then we’ll come back with some single-game showdown content once the NBA Finals roll around. The playoff newsletters will be short and sweet so, without further adieu, let’s get into these match-ups that are beginning to heat up! Best of luck!
Today’s Key Injuries:
Lakers: A. Davis - Probable, L. James - Probable, D. Schroder - Probable
Grizzlies: J. Morant - Questionable
Heat: T. Herro - OUT
Bucks: G. Antetokounmpo - Questionable, W. Matthews - OUT
Timberwolves: R. Gobert - Questionable (appears likely to play), J. Nowell - Questionable
Nuggets: N. Jokic - Questionable
Main Slate Match-Ups w/ Game Totals & Point Spreads
Top DraftKings & FanDuel DFS Plays
Note: NBA position designations are never going to perfectly align between the major DFS sites. For the purposes of these newsletters, positional designations will default to DraftKings.
💫 = Favorite Play
Point Guards/Shooting Guards to Consider 🏀
💫PG Jamal Murray, DEN | DK: $7.6k, FD: $8.7k | vs. MIN
If there’s one thing we know about Jamal Murray, it’s that he can get hot in the postseason. We saw a glimpse of that in the first game of this series where Murray dropped 24 points on 22 shot attempts and corralled eight boards, dished eight dimes, and recorded a block -- good for 49.5 DKFP. Murray’s game one performance would’ve inevitably been greater were it not for the 29-point blowout factor. He logged 33 minutes of court time on Sunday but in a more competitive playoff atmosphere, Murray is going to push for 40 minutes and likely continue to put up shot attempts in the mid-to-high 20s. The T-Wolves represent a great match-up thanks to their uptempo pace (7th in the NBA in pace this season) and their struggles against opposing point guards (ranked 27th vs. PGs L20Gms). If Nikola Jokic (wrist/questionable) is ruled out, Murray becomes an even stronger DFS play.
💫PG/SG D’Angelo Russell, LAL | DK: $5.8k, FD: $6.7k | @ MEM
Overall, playoff NBA DFS pricing is noticeably softer on DraftKings and D’Angelo Russell is one of those players that will set up as a strong mid-range bargain at $5,800. He logged 36 minutes in game one against the Grizzlies which resulted in 37.0 DKFP. Russell has averaged 1.05 FPPM on the season so, based on that per-minute average, he’s going to have a great chance to put up a similar performance in game two given mid-30s minutes. With Anthony Davis and LeBron James drawing so much defensive attention, Russell should see several wide-open shot opportunities and he will likely rack up anywhere from five to ten assists along the way as well.
PG/SG Gabe Vincent, MIA | DK: $4.2k, FD: $4.9k | @ MIL
We’re going to need some value plays if we want to jam in several studs who are locked into big playoff minutes and high usage. Gabe Vincent is a worthy sub-$5k guard option with PG/SG eligibility on both sites. He played 33 minutes in game one against Milwaukee, putting up 15 points and 27.5 DKFP, and due to Tyler Herro’s hand injury that will sideline him for the foreseeable future, Vincent should continue to play minutes well into the 30s. Vincent has handled a +2.76% usage boost with Herro off the court this season and, while he can disappear at times in games, he’s much more likely to return value on his modest price tags than not.
Other Guards to Consider:
SG Desmond Bane, MEM | DK: $8.4k, FD: $8.5k | vs. LAL (Preferred if J. Morant is out)
💫PG Jrue Holiday, MIL | DK: $8.2k, FD: $9k | vs. MIA (Considerable boost if Giannis is out)
PG/SG Austin Reaves, LAL | DK: $5.6k, FD: $6k | @ MEM
PG Mike Conley, MIN | DK: $5.4k, FD: $6.5k | @ DEN
💫PG/SG Nickeil Alexander-Walker, MIN | DK: $4k, FD: $4.5k | @ DEN (If he’s starting again)
Small Forwards/Power Forwards to Consider 🏀
💫SF LeBron James, LAL | DK: $9.9k, FD: $10.8k | @ MEM
Rostering LeBron James in the playoffs is about as safe of an investment one could make. Even in a relatively quiet 21-point game one performance, on 16 FGA, LeBron still came away with 52.75 DKFP by doing some dirty work -- crashing the boards (11 rebounds) and racking up five combined blocks and steals. LeBron’s offensive usage took a hit in large part due to some surprise performances from Rui Hachimura (29 points on 11-14 shooting) off of the bench and Austin “I’m Him” Reaves (23 points on 8-13 shooting). One of those two guys may pop off again in game two but I doubt we see LeBron put up fewer than 20 shot attempts again, maybe for the rest of this series.
SF Khris Middleton, MIL | DK: $7.7k, FD: $8.2k | vs. MIA (Considerable boost if Giannis is out)
The questionable status of Giannis (back) looms large on this slate. If he’s out, Khris Middleton is going to be one of the most appealing forward plays on the slate (Middleton: +4.93% USG% w/o Giannis). Even if Giannis does suit up, Middleton is still going to carry plenty of DFS appeal. He ranks second on the Bucks with a 27.3% USG% this season and he’s averaged an impressive 1.23 FPPM. The Heat have ranked 6th in defensive efficiency this season but that didn’t stop Middleton from sinking 12-of-20 FGA (60.0% FG%) in game one for 33 points and 48.75 DKFP. He’s battled some injury lay-offs and minutes restrictions throughout the season but now that it’s time to make a run for another NBA championship, expect big minutes and big results out of the Bucks’ small forward tonight.
💫PF/C Kevin Love, MIA | DK: $4.1k, FD: $4.1k | @ MIL
Love saw 23 minutes of run off of the bench in game one versus the Bucks and, in vintage K-Love fashion, he was very efficient, averaging 1.37 FPPM and posting 31.5 DKFP. Love’s per-minute production has taken a hit since joining the Heat but he can still turn it up and stuff the stat sheet in limited minutes. The void that Tyler Herro (hand/out) leaves behind may also trickle down to Love, who has handled a +3.52% usage boost with Herro off the court. All-in-all, Love stands out as one of the strongest value plays on the slate at $4,100 on both sites.
Other Forwards to Consider:
PF/C Giannis Antetokounmpo, MIL | DK: $10.5k, FD: $12k | vs. MIA (Note: Giannis is currently questionable)
💫SF/PF Jimmy Butler, MIA | DK: $8.9k, FD: $10k | @ MIL
PF/C Bobby Portis, MIL | DK: $5.7k, FD: $6.3k | vs. MIA (Preferred if starting/Giannis sits)
PF Rui Hachimura, LAL | DK: $4.5k, FD: $4.8k | @ MEM
Centers to Consider 🏀
💫C Anthony Davis, LAL | DK: $10.1k, FD: $11.9k | @ MEM
This three-game slate is loaded at the center position. We’ll give Anthony Davis the spotlight as the pricey center option despite getting a little banged up in game one. Davis missed some time while dealing with a “stinger” on Sunday but he still ended up playing 37 minutes and put up 22 points, 12 rebounds, three assists, and seven -- count ‘em, SEVEN -- blocks to go along with three steals. This Grizzlies match-up seems to be one that Davis enjoys because he has gone for 60+ DKFP in all three meetings against Memphis this season. Barring some random injury, which is always the main concern with Anthony Davis, he’ll be poised for another big performance in game two.
💫PF/C Karl Anthony-Towns, MIN | DK: $7.5k, FD: $9.2k | @ DEN
KAT is appropriately priced on FanDuel at $9,200 but he’s simply far too cheap on DraftKings at $7,500. Sure, he had a lackluster game-one performance where the Timberwolves just never really got going before being blown out by 29 points. But in the five games prior, which included the two play-in tournament games last week, Towns averaged 49.9 FPPG with three 22+ point double-doubles. Denver allowed the 10th most points in the paint this season and we all know that Nikola Jokic’s defense can be lacking at times.
Other Centers to Consider:
C Nikola Jokic, DEN | DK: $10.9k, FD: $12.1k | vs. MIN (Note: Jokic is currently questionable)
PF/C Jaren Jackson Jr., MEM | DK: $9.3k, FD: $9k | vs. LAL
💫C Bam Adebayo, MIA | DK: $7.4k, FD: $8.4k | @ MIL
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That will wrap us up with today’s “Daily Dribble” edition! Once again, you can find me on Twitter or in LineStar chat @Ryan_Humphries. Good luck everyone!