Top NBA DFS Plays & Prop Picks 1/10 | Dissecting Friday's Hectic Slate!

Top DFS Plays & Pick 'Ems for Today's NBA Action!

Written By: Ryan Humphries on Twitter & LineStar chat @Ryan_Humphries

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DFS Main Slate Rundown 📰

For those who thrive on the mid-sized slates, it’s been an ideal week filled with seven/eight-game slates! Friday will be no different with another seven games on the board. As usual, there is no shortage of injury woes to track today. The Warriors, specifically, may be working with as short as an eight-man rotation with most of the starters already ruled out. Elsewhere, there are around seven truly impactful players who are designated as “questionable” -- notably, N. Jokic, K. Towns, T. Haliburton, M. Turner, D. Murray, P. Banchero (could return from a 34-game absence), and J. Poole. So, keep an eye out for news regarding those guys. Alright, let’s head into the weekend on a profitable note. Best of luck!

 

Today’s Key Injuries

  • Warriors: S. Curry - OUT, J. Kuminga - OUT, A. Wiggins - OUT, D. Green - OUT, T. Jackson-Davis - Questionable, B. Podziemski - OUT, M. Moody - Probable, G. Payton II - OUT

  • Pacers: T. Haliburton - Questionable, M. Turner - Questionable, A. Nesmith - OUT

  • Bucks: G. Antetokounmpo - Probable, D. Lillard - Probable, K. Middleton - Probable, R. Rollins - Questionable

  • Magic: P. Banchero - Questionable, F. Wagner - OUT, J. Suggs - OUT, G. Harris - OUT

  • Pelicans: B. Ingram - OUT, D. Murray - Questionable, T. Murphy III - OUT, H. Jones - OUT

  • 76ers: J. Embiid - OUT, P. George - Probable, A. Drummond - OUT, K. Lowry - OUT, KJ Martin - OUT

  • Kings: D. Fox - OUT

  • Celtics: D. Peterson - OUT, J. Walsh - Questionable

  • Thunder: C. Holmgren - OUT, A. Caruso - OUT, A. Mitchell - OUT

  • Knicks: K. Towns - Questionable, M. McBride - Questionable

  • Wizards: J. Poole - Questionable, M. Brogdon - OUT, A. Sarr - Questionable, R. Holmes - Questionable, M. Bagley III - OUT, J. Davis - Questionable

  • Bulls: A. Dosunmu - OUT, T. Craig - OUT

  • Nets: C. Johnson - OUT, C. Thomas - OUT, D. Russell - OUT, T. Watford - OUT

  • Nuggets: N. Jokic - Questionable, A. Gordon - Doubtful

Main Slate Match-Ups w/ Game Totals & Point Spreads

Top DraftKings & FanDuel DFS Plays

Note: NBA position designations are never going to perfectly align between the major DFS sites. For the purposes of these newsletters, positional designations will default to DraftKings.

Point Guards/Shooting Guards to Consider 🏀

PG Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, OKC | DK: $10.4k, FD: $11.4k | at NYK

It’s another one of those slates where I don’t find it overly necessary to spend up at guard, but there is also plenty of value to be had on this slate, so gaining exposure to a high-floor option like SGA is never a bad idea. This game pits two top-tier teams against one another and it could be the match-up of the night given its slate-low 3.5-point spread (in favor of the Thunder). These teams met last Friday and SGA responded with 33 points on 12-of-26 shooting and a monster 37.2% USG%. The Knicks are a slower-paced team (25th in pace) and middle-of-the-pack defensively (14th in DEFRTG), but they have been a solid individual match-up for opposing PGs recently, ranking 23rd versus starting PGs L5Games. I don’t have high hopes for a ceiling game out of Gilgeous-Alexander tonight, but he’s almost always a good bet to provide a 50 FP floor. If this turns into a lower-scoring slate, those raw [fantasy] points could be invaluable.

 

PG/SG Coby White, CHI | DK: $6.6k, FD: $6.9k | vs. WAS

If there is one game that won’t be low-scoring on this slate, it’s this contest between the Bulls and Wizards -- aka, the 2nd and 4th fastest-paced teams in the NBA (and both are bottom-seven in DEFRTG). Coby White has been producing some quality numbers lately, averaging 23.0 PPG, 1.12 FPPG, and 38.8 DKFP/36.4 FDFP over his L5Games. Some of his uptick in production could be attributed to the absence of Ayo Dosunmu (calf/out), who has missed the last seven games. White has received the largest usage boost on the team when Dosunmu has been off the floor this season. Overall, I like White’s chances of cracking 40+ FP tonight, which we’ll happily take at his sub-$7k price points.

 

SG Buddy Hield, GSW | DK: $4.1k, FD: $4.3k | at IND

As mentioned, value shouldn’t be hard to come by on this slate, and, given their current injury situation, the Warriors could provide us with several cheap options. The first of which is Buddy Hield. He has been wildly unproductive at times in recent weeks but that has driven his DFS prices way down and he is coming off of back-to-back games scoring 30+ FP and, most recently, he cracked the starting lineup last night and turned in 19 points, five rebounds, three assists, and a steal across 32 minutes -- good for 34.25 DKFP/32.50 FDFP. By all indications, Hield should garner another start tonight and he should easily be within the top three highest-usage players in the depleted Warriors lineup.

 

Other Guards to Consider

PG Tyrese Maxey, PHI vs. NOP

PG/SG Jamal Murray, DEN vs. BKN (Boost if Jokic is out)

PG/SG Malik Monk, SAC at BOS

PG Josh Giddey, CHI vs. WAS

SG Kelly Oubre Jr., PHI vs. NOP

PG/SG Cole Anthony, ORL vs. MIL

PG/SG Dennis Schroder, GSW at IND

SG Keon Ellis, SAC at BOS

PG Lonzo Ball, CHI vs. WAS

PG Jared Butler, WAS at CHI (Preferred if J. Poole is out)

PG TJ McConnell, IND vs. GSW (Preferred if T. Haliburton is out)

SG/SF Moses Moody, GSW at IND

PG/SG Cason Wallace, OKC at NYK

SG/SF Lindy Waters III, GSW at IND (Preferred if starting)

 

Small Forwards/Power Forwards to Consider 🏀

SG/SF Zach LaVine, CHI | DK: $8.1k, FD: $8.2k | vs. WAS

LaVine has been a highly effective scorer and he heads in having scored at least 31 [actual] points in four straight, and in five of his last six, and he has averaged over 10 rebounds plus assists in that span as well. He is rocking a 31% USG% in that six-game stretch while averaging a robust 1.40 FPPM. He is not immune to the routine dud performance but you would not expect a down game in this always-favorable match-up against the Wizards.

 

PF Pascal Siakam, IND | DK: $7.2k, FD: $7.4k | vs. GSW

Siakam has been a reliable option for much of the season and he could be in line for a larger role if either Tyrese Haliburton or Myles Turner (both questionable) are ruled out. The minutes haven’t been great for Siakam, as he has averaged just 29.9 Min/gm L5Games. However, he is averaging 34.2 Min/gm at home this season and he should have no issues going up against this depleted Warriors lineup. All-in-all, these are very reasonable price points for Siakam and he profiles as a strong floor play with a decent chance to crack the 40 FP threshold.

 

PF Kyle Anderson, GSW | DK: $3.5k, FD: $4.1k | at IND

I’ll be fairly surprised if Kyle Anderson doesn’t appear in the starting lineup tonight and, considering the Warriors are going to be thinner in the frontcourt than the backcourt, he could realistically play 30+ minutes. I’d imagine his floor would be in the 24-minute range and, on the season, Anderson has averaged 1.03 FPPM, so that would be plenty of time for him to return excellent value. We’re going to see multiple chalky Warriors value plays on this slate but some of these guys may venture into “necessary chalk” territory. “Kyle Anderson chalk” always gives me an unsettled feeling in the pit of my stomach but he just makes too much sense today.

 

Other Forwards to Consider

PF/C Giannis Antetokounmpo, MIL at ORL

SF/PF Jayson Tatum, BOS vs. SAC

SF/SG Josh Hart, NYK vs. OKC

SF/SG Paul George, PHI vs. NOP

SF/PF Michael Porter Jr., DEN vs. BKN

PF/C Guerschon Yabusele, PHI vs. NOP

SF/SG Corey Kispert, WAS at CHI (Preferred if J. Poole is out)

SF/SG Luguentz Dort, OKC at NYK

PF Peyton Watson, DEN vs. BKN

SF/SG Julian Strawther, DEN vs. BKN

SF/PF Aaron Wiggins, OKC at NYK

 

Centers to Consider 🏀

C Domantas Sabonis, SAC | DK: $9.4k, FD: $9.7k | at BOS

The Kings will be without star guard De’Aaron (hip/out) for a third consecutive game. As a result, Sabonis should see a moderate bump in both his usage rate and assist rate. Considering he is averaging 20.6 PPG, 13.8 RPG, and 6.3 APG this season, a few additional assist opportunities will put him on triple-double watch, even in a tough road match-up against the Celtics. The Kings needed every bit of Sabonis’ 21/18/11 (plus three blocks & a steal) stat line in their double-OT win against the Heat in their last game. Sabonis played a whopping 50 minutes in that game, but they have since had four days to rest up so fatigue shouldn’t be an issue. Sacramento is rolling into Boston with a five-game win streak under their belts. They’re sizable 10.5-point underdogs tonight so, if they hope to extend that win streak, they’ll need another massive game out of their 3x All-Star center.

 

C Jalen Smith, CHI | DK: $3.2k, FD: $4.4k | vs. WAS

I’m sorry but, at least on DraftKings, I just can’t help myself from throwing a spotlight on Jalen Smith. We had him pinned as a go-to DK value play on Wednesday and he went on to and he went on to put up a 13/7/3 (+ a block) stat line in 17 minutes -- good for 28.25 DKFP. Somehow, his DK salary decreased by $200. As usual, Smith isn’t going to play more than around 15-18 minutes barring a Nikola Vucevic injury/ejection (or super early foul trouble) but he makes the most of his limited minutes and is averaging 1.34 FPPM L5Games. The Wizards also rank 27th versus reserve centers and Smith went for 27.75 DKFP (in 18 minutes) the first time these teams met this season.

 

Other Centers to Consider

C Nikola Jokic, DEN vs. BKN (Currently questionable)

C Karl-Anthony Towns, NYK vs. OKC (Currently questionable)

C Kristaps Porzingis, BOS vs. SAC

C Jonas Valanciunas, WAS at CHI (Only if A. Sarr is out & JVal starts again)

C Trayce-Jackson Davis, GSW at IND (Currently questionable)

C Day’Ron Sharpe, BKN at DEN

C Thomas Bryant, IND vs. GSW (Only if M. Turner is out & Bryant starts again)

C Kevon Looney, GSW at IND (Preferred if T. Jackson-Davis is out + Looney starts, but fine value regardless)

 

PrizePicks NBA Power Play of the Day ⚡

Here is a two-pick “Power Play” I’m liking for today's NBA action over on PrizePicks! Nothing is ever a guarantee to hit but I put my own money on these bets so I don't just lightly throw these out there without believing they'll cash! If it hits, it will return 3x the wager.

Jalen Smith MORE than 8.5 Points

Domantas Sabonis MORE than 5.5 Assists

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That will wrap us up with today’s “Daily Dribble” edition! Once again, you can find me on Twitter or in LineStar chat @Ryan_Humphries. Good luck everyone!