Top NBA DFS Plays & Prop Picks 1/16 | Breaking Down Thursday's Small Five-Game Slate

Top DFS Plays & Pick 'Ems for Today's NBA Action!

Written By: Ryan Humphries on Twitter & LineStar chat @Ryan_Humphries

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DFS Main Slate Rundown 📰

Things slow down a bit, in comparison to yesterday, with a modest five-game slate on tap. The injury report is fairly light today as well with the one key “questionable” player being Pacers PG Tyrese Haliburton. That could change between the time of this writing and later this evening but, overall, it’s looking like we won’t have too many ‘coin-flip’ injury situations to monitor heading into tonight’s action. If you missed part one of the Cavs/Thunder regular season series last Wednesday, I highly suggest tuning into the second match-up on TNT tonight if you’re into high-caliber basketball! The second leg of the TNT doubleheader (Rockets/Kings) should be a pretty good one as well! Let’s jump into this small slate and see what we can put together. Best of luck!

 

Today’s Key Injuries

  • Suns: B. Beal - OUT, J. Nurkic - OUT

  • Wizards: M. Brogdon - OUT

  • Pacers: T. Haliburton - Questionable, B. Mathurin - OUT, A. Nesmith - Questionable

  • Pistons: None

  • Cavs: T. Jerome - Questionable

  • Thunder: C. Holmgren - OUT, I. Hartenstein - OUT

  • Rockets: F. VanVleet - OUT, J. Smith Jr. - OUT, T. Eason - Questionable, J. Landale - Questionable

  • Kings: M. Monk - Probable, D. Carter - Questionable

  • Clippers: K. Leonard - OUT, T. Mann - Questionable

  • Trailblazers: D. Avdija - Doubtful, J. Grant - OUT, D. Clingan - OUT, R. Williams - Questionable

Main Slate Match-Ups w/ Game Totals & Point Spreads

Top DraftKings & FanDuel DFS Plays

Note: NBA position designations are never going to perfectly align between the major DFS sites. For the purposes of these newsletters, positional designations will default to DraftKings.

Point Guards/Shooting Guards to Consider 🏀

PG/SG Devin Booker, PHX | DK: $9.1k, FD: $9.6k | at WAS

Booker is coming off of another stellar performance, dropping a 35/5/5 (w/ three steals) stat line across 38 minutes versus the Hawks on Tuesday. Booker rocked a team-leading 34.9% USG% in that contest and, over his last five games, he has held onto an elite 31.1% USG% while averaging 1.41 FPPM -- both sizable upticks from his season-long averages of 27.3% USG% and 1.20 FPPM. As mentioned in recent previous DBook spotlights, he has been more involved as a facilitator since Bradley Beal was sent to a bench role, and Beal is out altogether tonight due to an ankle injury. I doubt much needs to be said about the match-up but, as you’re aware, it’s a good one. The Wizards are 4th in pace, 30th in DEFRTG, and 30th versus starting guards L20Games. The only concern here for Booker would be the blowout factor as the Suns step in as -11.5 road favorites. That said, Booker could probably still go for 50+ FP tonight even if he plays fewer minutes than usual. He will, rightfully, be a popular target today but also a tough guy to fade on a short five-game slate.

 

SG Jalen Green, HOU | DK: $7.4k, FD: $7.3k | at SAC

I’m a little worried that the floor game is coming soon for Jalen Green but, for now, we have to consider at least rolling him out after yet another outstanding game last night. Green was incredibly efficient in the blowout victory against the Joker-less Nuggets last night, scoring 34 points on just 10-of-16 shooting, including 6-of-10 from three-point range. Due to the blowout, Green didn’t log heavy minutes last night (30), so the back-to-back factor is less of a concern. Over his L5Games, Green is now averaging a robust 33.0 PPG, 1.43 FPPM, and 48.9 DKFP/47.0 FDFP. He doesn’t draw as strong of a match-up tonight but the Kings are a subpar 21st versus starting SGs L20Games.

Update: Fred VanVleet was just ruled out which provides a further boost for Green.

 

PG/SG Dalano Banton, POR | DK: $3k, FD: $3.9k | vs. LAC

It’s looking like the Trailblazers will have a couple of popular guards today with Shaedon Sharpe and Scoot Henderson (projected to retain a starting role following Tuesday’s 39-point performance & Deni Avdija listed as doubtful) getting plenty of love. But if you need a pure punt play, particularly on DraftKings where he is the stone minimum of $3,000, then Dalano Banton could be your guy. He hasn’t been playing major minutes off of the bench following some recent absences due to injuries, but he did get up to 19 minutes on Tuesday. Considering he has averaged 0.93 FPPM L20Games, if he gets back up to the routine 20-24 minutes that he was receiving earlier this season, he could comfortably return value. Banton can also get hot in a hurry and has multiple games this season where he has scored 20+ FP despite playing roughly 12 minutes in some outings. Overall, Banton is a low-risk investment if you’re looking to squeeze several superstar players into the same lineup.

 

Other Guards to Consider

PG Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, OKC vs. CLE

PG James Harden, LAC at POR

PG De’Aaron Fox, SAC vs. HOU

PG Anfernee Simons, POR vs. LAC

PG/SG Shaedon Sharpe, POR vs. LAC

PG Scoot Henderson, POR vs. LAC

PG/SG Andrew Nembhard, IND at DET (Preferred if T. Haliburton is out)

PG TJ McConnell, IND at DET (Only if T. Haliburton is out)

PG Tyus Jones, PHX at WAS

SG/SF Grayson Allen, PHX at WAS

PG/SG Cason Wallace, OKC vs. CLE

SG/SF Isaiah Joe, OKC vs. CLE

PG Aaron Holiday, HOU at SAC

 

Small Forwards/Power Forwards to Consider 🏀

PF/C Kevin Durant, PHX | DK: $9.2k, FD: $9.7k | at WAS

It shouldn’t be difficult to get up to KD today if you so desire. He always brings a strong floor to DFS lineups and, as we saw two nights ago (56.5 DKFP/58.6 FDFP), he can still pop off for a big game. Durant should also benefit from both Bradley Beal and Jusuf Nurkic being sidelined tonight. With those two players off the floor this season, he has taken on a team-leading +4.01% USG% increase while averaging +5.04 FP per 32 minutes. And, of course, there are no match-up issues -- the Wizards check in at 28th versus starting power forwards L20Games.

 

PF Pascal Siakam, IND | DK: $7.2k, FD: $7.9k | at DET

Siakam has been as steady of a DFS producer as most any player this season, particularly over the last month. He’s proven that he’ll rarely burn you in lineups and will typically flirt with, or exceed, the 40 FP threshold. Siakam should receive a slight-to-moderate usage boost with Bennedict Mathurin out tonight due to a suspension -- the same goes for if Tyrese Haliburton (hamstring/questionable) is forced to miss a second consecutive game. It’s also a rock-solid individual match-up for Siakam as the Pistons have allowed the 5th most FPPG to PF starters L20Games. Siakam posted one of his better performances of the season against the Pistons back in late October, supplying a 19/8/9 (plus two steals) stat line and 47.0 DKFP/48.1 FDFP.

 

SF/PF Cam Whitmore, HOU | DK: $3.7k, FD: $4.2k | at SAC

We’ve spotlighted Whitmore a few times now as a viable cheap play and he recently put up one of his best games of the campaign last night, posting 16 points, nine rebounds, and 33.25 DKFP/33.3 FDFP across 24 minutes last night. Now, he did benefit from some garbage time as he played the entire fourth quarter while some of the starters sat out the final frame in a blowout win. That said, Whitmore is averaging a strong 1.18 FPPM L5Games and he could see mid-20s minutes again tonight with Jabari Smith Jr. still out. PG Fred VanVleet was also ruled out as I was writing this newsletter. Whitmore may not be a candidate to start in place of VanVleet, but he has seen a team-leading +4.32% USG% increase with both Smith Jr. and VanVleet off the floor this season. Overall, he is just another affordable player who shouldn’t burn you even if he doesn’t crack 20 minutes.

 

Other Forwards to Consider

PF/C Evan Mobley, CLE at OKC

SF/SG Amen Thompson, HOU at SAC

PF Jalen Williams, OKC vs. CLE

SF DeMar DeRozan, SAC vs. HOU

PF Tobias Harris, DET vs. IND

PF/C Alexandre Sarr, WAS vs. PHX

SF Toumani Camara, POR vs. LAC

SF/SG Luguentz Dort, OKC vs. CLE

SF/SG Max Strus, CLE at OKC

PF/C Oso Ighodaro, PHX at WAS

SF/SG Ben Sheppard, IND at DET (Preferred if starting)

PF/C Trey Lyles, SAC vs. HOU

SF/PF Jarace Walker, IND at DET (Boost if starting and/or A. Nesmith remains out)

SF/SG Kris Murray, POR vs. LAC

PF/C Kenrich Williams, OKC vs. CLE

Centers to Consider 🏀

C Ivica Zubac, LAC | DK: $7.1k, FD: $7.6k | at POR

Zubac could be in a prime spot as he goes up against a struggling Deandre Ayton and a depleted Trailblazers’ frontcourt. He has underperformed in each of the first two games against Portland but he has also been popping for plenty of 50+ FP games lately while averaging a stout 1.42 FPPM L5Games. With Kawhi Leonard sitting out the second leg of a back-to-back, he should see some decent usage. The back-to-back factor also isn’t a major concern for Zubac and the other Clippers’ starters as they sat out most of the second half last night while utterly demolishing the Nets by nearly doubling their score in a 126-67 blowout -- Zubac played just 22 minutes. The Trailblazers have given up the 4th most FPPG to starting centers L20Games so I won’t be putting much weight on those two previous duds that Zubac has against them this season.

 

C Jaylin Williams, OKC | DK: $3.3k, FD: $4k | vs. CLE

Jaylin Williams could very well be the chalkiest player on this slate but, if he gets the starting nod tonight (Chet Holmgren remains out & Isaiah Hartenstein is out for at least the next week), then he may end up being “necessary chalk”. Williams made his season debut in late December and has averaged a quality 1.11 FPPM across 12 games. He recently picked up 24 minutes in a blowout win over the Wizards four days ago, so we know that the Thunder could be willing to give him some decent minutes as a [likely] starter.

 

Other Centers to Consider

C Domantas Sabonis, SAC vs. HOU

C Alperen Sengun, HOU at SAC

C Jarrett Allen, OKC vs. CLE

C Jalen Duren, DET vs. IND

PrizePicks NBA Power Play of the Day ⚡

Here is a two-pick “Power Play” I’m liking for today's NBA action over on PrizePicks! Nothing is ever a guarantee to hit but I put my own money on these bets so I don't just lightly throw these out there without believing they'll cash! If it hits, it will return 3x the wager.

No picks from me today but, as usual, Shannon has some great recommendations in the props video posted at the top of this newsletter!

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That will wrap us up with today’s “Daily Dribble” edition! Once again, you can find me on Twitter or in LineStar chat @Ryan_Humphries. Good luck everyone!