Top NBA DFS Plays & Prop Picks 1/16 | Tackling Friday's Four-Gamer!

DFS Plays & Props for Today's NBA Action!

Written By: Ryan Humphries on Twitter/X & LineStar chat @Ryan_Humphries

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🏀Tyler’s NBA (and other sports) prop bets can be found on the LineStar YouTube Shorts page!🏀

DFS Main Slate Rundown 📰

It’s a light Friday schedule with only four games making it onto the main slate ticket. As has been the case lately, both DraftKings and FanDuel will be excluding the late games once again. It is a solid looking four-game slate, however, with every matchup owning a spread under five points and there are a couple of high totals on the board as well. The injury report isn’t too hectic as most guys are listed as either out, probable, or doubtful. Only four players own questionable designations, with Ivica Zubac and John Collins being the two most impactful Q-tags. Let’s see if we can head into the weekend on a high note! Best of luck!

Main Slate Match-Ups w/ Game Totals & Point Spreads

Today’s Key Injuries 🚑

Note: NBA injury reports can be fickle and often update throughout the day. Be sure to stay up-to-date on all injury news leading up to tip-off as the list below may be a bit outdated by the time you’re reading this.

Additional Note: Players who have yet to play this season will be excluded from the injury report, unless they have either a probable, questionable, or doubtful injury designation, with some amount of chance to make their season debut. Injured players who have been out for an extended period of time and/or are not expected to play for a month-plus will also be excluded.

  • Pelicans: H. Jones – OUT, J. Alvarado – OUT

  • Pacers: B. Mathurin – OUT, I. Jackson – OUT

  • Cavs: D. Garland – OUT, S. Merrill – OUT, D. Wade – OUT

  • 76ers: J. Embiid – Probable, P. George – Probable, D. Barlow – Questionable

  • Bulls: J. Giddey – OUT, K. Huerter – Probable, Z. Collins – OUT, J. Phillips – Questionable

  • Nets: Z. Williams – OUT

  • Clippers: K. Leonard – OUT, I. Zubac – Questionable, J. Collins – Questionable, D. Jones Jr. – OUT, B. Bogdanovic – OUT

  • Raptors: I. Quickley – DOUBTFUL, RJ Barrett – OUT, S. Mamukelashvili – Probable, J. Poeltl – OUT, J. Walter – OUT, J. Battle – OUT

Top DraftKings & FanDuel DFS Plays

Note: NBA position designations are never going to perfectly align between the major DFS sites. For the purposes of these newsletters, positional designations will default to DraftKings.

Point Guards/Shooting Guards to Consider 🏀

SG Donovan Mitchell, CLE | DK: $9.6k, FD: $9.6k | at PHI

Donovan Mitchell is set up for another potential ceiling performance with the Cavaliers shorthanded in the backcourt, as both Darius Garland and Sam Merrill are out. Mitchell is coming off a dominant outing where he posted 35 points, seven rebounds, nine assists, and over 61 DKFP against this same 76ers team, and his role only grows in this situation. With Garland and Merrill both off the floor this season, Mitchell’s usage rate spikes from 29.8% to a massive 35.6%. He’s also torched Philadelphia in their other meeting this season, dropping 46 points and 67.0 DKFP. And it’s worth noting that Garland and Merrill played in both of those previous matchups with Philly this season. In a competitive matchup where Cleveland will lean heavily on his offense, Mitchell stands out as the premier pay-up option at shooting guard.

SG Trey Murphy III, NOP | DK: $8.1k, FD: $8.1k | at IND

After a slow start to the season, Trey Murphy has clearly found his stride. Over his last six games, he’s averaging 31.7 PPG and 1.44 FPPM, and has cleared 51 DKFP in four games during that span. He also leads all players on this slate in LineStar’s Consistency Rating, which helps reinforce the reliability of his recent production. The matchup only adds fuel to the fire. New Orleans carries the second-highest implied team total on the slate (118.0), and this game owns the top total of the day at 240.5 points. Indiana has also struggled to contain opposing shooting guards, allowing the fourth-most FPPG to the position over their last 20 games. Murphy’s salary has risen, but in this game environment and role, he remains one of the stronger high-end guard options on the slate.

SG/SF Jordan Miller, LAC | DK: $4.4k, FD: $4.2k | at TOR

The Clippers will not have the services of Kawhi Leonard tonight, while both Ivica Zubac and John Collins are questionable. Someone will need to step in to help James Harden carry the offensive workload, and I like Jordan Miller’s chances of seeing an elevated role. He’s been playing considerably more lately, averaging 29.0 minutes/gm and a respectable 0.88 FPPM over the Clippers’ last four games. His best all-around performance of the season came in the last game on Wednesday when he posted an 11/10/5 stat line with a pair of steals and came away with 36.0 DKFP across 34 minutes. It may be asking too much for a similar follow-up performance, but with Kawhi unavailable, the potential for big minutes (even if it’s off the bench) is there.

Other Guards to Consider

PG James Harden, LAC at TOR

PG Tyrese Maxey, PHI vs. CLE

SG Brandon Ingram, TOR vs. LAC

PG Andrew Nembhard, IND vs. NOP

SG Coby White, CHI at BKN

PG Jamal Shead, TOR vs. LAC

PG Craig Porter Jr., CLE at PHI (Assuming he starts)

SG/SF Gradey Dick, TOR vs. LAC (Preferred if starting)

PG/SG Lonzo Ball, CLE at PHI

Small Forwards/Power Forwards to Consider 🏀

PF Pascal Siakam, IND | DK: $8.7k, FD: $8.6k | vs. NOP

Power forward shapes up as one of the stronger positions on Friday’s slate, and Pascal Siakam stands out at the top. Indiana leads the slate with a 122.5 implied team total and draws a promising matchup against a New Orleans team that is 27th in DEFRTG and top-10 in pace. Siakam has topped 44.75 DKFP in five of his last seven games and, over the past month, he has averaged a steady 1.21 FPPM. His usage has also increased recently, as he’s carrying a 32.7% USG% over his last five games compared to a 28.9% mark on the season. Against a weak Pelicans defense, Siakam brings a strong combination of minutes security, usage, and reasonable 50+ FP upside.

SF/SG Ayo Dosunmu, CHI | DK: $5.6k, FD: $5.8k | at BKN

Dosunmu has been quietly consistent off the Bulls bench of late, clearing at least 29.0 DKFP in eight of his last nine games – and it’s worth noting that Josh Giddey (hamstring/out) has been sidelined for eight of those games. At mid-$5k price points on a small slate, that sort of production can be especially useful. He’s up to 1.17 FPPM over his last five games and has landed in the optimal lineup in two of the last three. Dosunmu plays more of a combo guard role but can be slotted into the SF roster spot on DraftKings, thanks to his dual SF/SG eligibility.

SF Johnny Furphy, IND | DK: $3.9k, FD: $4.2k | vs. NOP

This may not be an exciting play but on a short slate without many standout value options, Furphy seems like a logical target. He has started in nine of Indiana’s last ten games and, while the production hasn’t always been great, it has picked up lately. Across his last five starts, Furphy is averaging a quality 0.98 FPPM and 23.4 DKFP/gm. He’s also coming off a double-double and a season-high 32.0 DKFP so perhaps he can continue to build on that performance versus a bad Pelicans defense.

Other Forwards to Consider

PF/C Evan Mobley, CLE at PHI

SF Michael Porter Jr., BKN vs. CHI

PF Scottie Barnes, TOR vs. LAC

PF Matas Buzelis, CHI at BKN

SF Aaron Nesmith, IND vs. NOP

SF/SG Jaylon Tyson, CLE at PHI (Preferred if starting)

PF Noah Clowney, BKN vs. CHI

SF/SG Kobe Sanders, LAC at TOR (Preferred if starting)

SF/PF Jarace Walker, IND vs. NOP

Centers to Consider 🏀

C Joel Embiid, PHI | DK: $9.2k, FD: $8.8k | vs. CLE

Joel Embiid is always a slate-shifting piece when he’s active, even if he’s no longer carrying quite the same offensive burden as in past seasons. He still owns a hefty 33.6% USG% on the year and has been very efficient, averaging 1.39 FPPM over his last 20 games. The Sixers have also shown a willingness to push him into the mid-30s in minutes when games stay competitive. Embiid’s recent performance looks a bit muted after he logged just 25 minutes in a blowout loss to this same Cleveland team two days ago, but the setup is notably different tonight. The Cavs will now be a bit shorthanded in the second meeting, and Philadelphia enters as a 2.5-point favorite, which increases the likelihood of Embiid seeing a full workload. If that’s the case, he brings as much raw-point upside as any center on the slate, and his DFS price points are still very reasonable.

C/PF Collin Murray-Boyles, TOR | DK: $5.8k, FD: $6.3k | vs. LAC

With Jakob Poeltl still sidelined, Collin Murray-Boyles continues to stand out as a worthy mid-range option at center, and he also carries PF eligibility on both sites. Over his last six games as a starter, he’s averaged 31.8 minutes while flirting with a double-double at 11.2 PPG and 9.3 RPG, all while producing a strong 1.09 FPPM. He’s also been extremely active defensively, piling up 3.0 STL+BLK/gm over that stretch, which gives him multiple paths to fantasy production even when the scoring isn’t fully there. The 52.8 DKFP eruption against Philadelphia five days ago is clearly a hard-to-replicate ceiling outcome, but the consistent minutes and expanded role with Poeltl out make CMB a steady value option again in this spot.

Other Centers to Consider

C Nikola Vucevic, CHI at BKN

C Nic Claxton, BKN vs. CHI

C Day’Ron Sharpe, BKN vs. CHI

C/PF Jay Huff, IND vs. NOP

C Yanic Konan Niederhauser, LAC at TOR (Only if Zubac is out)

 

🔥 Props AI 🔥

In LineStar’s ongoing mission to improve, innovate, and help you reel in some cash, we have rolled out Props AI for NBA – available for LineStar Premium users! This tool can help you find value and mispriced odds on player props from sportsbooks and, more specifically, for PrizePicks, UnderDog Fantasy, and other prop apps/sites!

That will wrap us up with today’s “Daily Dribble” edition! Once again, you can find me on Twitter/X or in LineStar chat @Ryan_Humphries. Good luck everyone!